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Election 2020 (Page 2)
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subego
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Nov 3, 2020, 06:48 PM
 
Not expecting a result tonight, but I’ll probably have things on in the background anyway.

I usually try to find some form of internet “scoreboard” type result tracker, and put that on the TV.


Edit: not finding any options which put everything into a nice 16:9 format.
( Last edited by subego; Nov 3, 2020 at 07:03 PM. )
     
subego
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Nov 3, 2020, 07:13 PM
 
26 votes counted in New Hampshire!

We are ready to declare a victor.
     
MacNNFamous
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Nov 3, 2020, 07:58 PM
 
God damn you know I was really ambivalent about trump until covid, and then the whole trump train decided they would go anti science/anti fact/anti reality..... so I held my nose and voted for the two party system against him. His 'fans' are so ****ing annoying.
     
Waragainstsleep  (op)
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Nov 3, 2020, 08:57 PM
 
I feel like they were anti-reality from day one. And anti-science not long after that. They've definitely ramped it up for covid though.
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
reader50
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Nov 3, 2020, 09:50 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
I usually try to find some form of internet “scoreboard” type result tracker, and put that on the TV.
Try here.
     
subego
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Nov 3, 2020, 09:59 PM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
Try here.
I landed on NBC for whatever reason, and they’re being a lot more conservative than The Guardian. No leanings on the map, just states they’ve called.

Both are a little too tall. Maybe it’s Safari interface sucking up too much space.
     
Doc HM
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Nov 4, 2020, 06:41 AM
 
Looks like whoever wins no one really won clearly.
America hasn’t slapped Trump down. A lot of people (way more then the polls indicated) have rallied to support him while Biden has not really carried the day either with his voter base essentially restricted to urban areas. And no wins in the house so if Biden wins he’s going to struggle to achieve anything more than undo a load of executive orders and replace them with more.

However the next couple of days go it looks like the US will continue to burn for a a while yet.

The only positive is that when out of power Trumps grip on the minds of the nation will fade as his access to power fades and some semblance of normality returns to the Reps. Can’t see that happening.
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The Final Shortcut
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Nov 4, 2020, 08:27 AM
 
I’m not sure why you think Biden would put out the dumpster fire. It will continue to burn until they finally work out a way to split it up and go their separate ways. And whether that will happen depends on if they can find another cause/boogeyman to unite against.
     
OreoCookie
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Nov 4, 2020, 08:51 AM
 
Originally Posted by The Final Shortcut View Post
I’m not sure why you think Biden would put out the dumpster fire. It will continue to burn until they finally work out a way to split it up and go their separate ways. And whether that will happen depends on if they can find another cause/boogeyman to unite against.
Putting aside that Trump hasn't won yet, I don't get why everyone is always bashing the Democratic candidate. I think that's more an indictment of Republican voters. Roy Moore barely won against a candidate who was credibly accused of sleeping with wildly underage girls and was disowned by parts of the GOP. Yet, a very large share of Republican voters did stick by him. Not even leaving Trump voters waiting in the cold for so long that some had to be hospitalized seems to cost Trump any votes.

On a happier note Trump has declared himself the winner — even though he could still win the election fair and square (according to the rules as they are).
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Doc HM
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Nov 4, 2020, 09:23 AM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
Roy Moore barely won against a candidate who was credibly accused of sleeping with wildly underage girls and was disowned by parts of the GOP. Yet, a very large share of Republican voters did stick by him.
It's certainly tue that a sizeable portion of the US electorate simply puts political party above even the most basic human morality. And once the sort of people that this mindset elects realise that there is literally no bottom to the well that they can sink themselves into and pay an electoral price, well things can get really bad, really quickly.

Sadly at the moment the UK is also embarking on this political journey.
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Nov 4, 2020, 09:33 AM
 
Originally Posted by Doc HM View Post
It's certainly tue that a sizeable portion of the US electorate simply puts political party above even the most basic human morality. And once the sort of people that this mindset elects realise that there is literally no bottom to the well that they can sink themselves into and pay an electoral price, well things can get really bad, really quickly.

Sadly at the moment the UK is also embarking on this political journey.
Very often there is this turn of phrase that people should aim to “get a government they deserve”. But lately, I'm coming to the sad realization that (at least in some countries) perhaps the people do.
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subego
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Nov 4, 2020, 10:25 AM
 
I was promised an apocalypse, god dammit!

Who do I see about a refund?
     
Laminar
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Nov 4, 2020, 10:49 AM
 
Michigan just swung the tiniest bit blue, currently only leading by about 15,000 votes.

As for the apocalypse, I see some manner of shit going down this week if Biden wins or in January if Trump tries to not leave.
     
Doc HM
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Nov 4, 2020, 10:49 AM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
I was promised an apocalypse, god dammit!

Who do I see about a refund?
“Your apocalypse is currently out for delivery and should be with you sometime between 16.30 and early January. If you are out and have specified a safe place your apocalypse will be left there and a note posted through your door. Your apocalypse will be delivered by one of our premium drivers, Death, War, Famine, Plague or Brian.”
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subego
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Nov 4, 2020, 10:52 AM
 
Originally Posted by Doc HM View Post
safe place
Lol
     
andi*pandi
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Nov 4, 2020, 11:55 AM
 
It's been given that more trump voters voted in person, and more biden voters voted by mail/absentee/early, with those votes being counted later, and trump trying to not count them at all.

Count the votes.
     
MacNNFamous
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Nov 4, 2020, 12:31 PM
 
I thought so too, but when I was looking at the results most of hte mail ins were for the orange clown. Kind of surprised.
     
reader50
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Nov 4, 2020, 12:50 PM
 
Biden won Arizona plus Nebraska's 2nd district. Plus three of Maine's four. This means he only needs to win Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan to hit 270 exactly. Currently leading in all 3, with Pennsylvania's count expected to continue for days.

The fat lady hasn't sung yet, even in some of the called states. Beware that the "percentage counted" or "votes remaining" are estimates. In most cases, they don't know how many votes there are before they're counted. That's why some percentages are stuck in the high 90s with counting continuing - someone guessed on the low side.
( Last edited by reader50; Nov 4, 2020 at 05:43 PM. Reason: corrected Maine error)
     
subego
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Nov 4, 2020, 12:53 PM
 
I mentioned yesterday NBC is playing it very conservative.

As an example, they still haven’t called Arizona.
     
Laminar
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Nov 4, 2020, 03:22 PM
 
Current rumblings here in the office are that Wisconsin had 100,000 more people vote that were registered to vote.

edit: Two seconds of Googling

Current graphics being posted to the BMW forums are that Michigan suddenly had 150,000 votes added to Biden in one refresh but none went to Trump.

IT'S ALL VOTER FRAUD.

Also I'm trying not to lol at the Trump supporter who just declared his distaste for the Electoral College after Wisconsin got called for Biden.
     
MacNNFamous
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Nov 4, 2020, 03:57 PM
 
lmao. Ahhhh finally the townies and retards who could barely finish HS might shut the **** up and stop thinking they know everything cuz fox news told them what to think. I hope.
     
Waragainstsleep  (op)
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Nov 4, 2020, 05:04 PM
 
The BBC still haven't called Arizona even though other outlets called it several hours ago.
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
MacNNFamous
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Nov 4, 2020, 05:39 PM
 
BBC is british so their timezones are ****ed up.
     
andi*pandi
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Nov 4, 2020, 07:58 PM
 
I saw that wisconsin graphic. the current voters wasn't accurate, and doesn't wisconsin allow same day registration? So voter rolls and votes could both have gone up in one day.

Come on Nevada.

I had hopes for Georgia, but it seems unlikely at this point... too much disenfranchisement. I also wonder if the mail/absentee votes are being counted as carefully as in MI and PA.
     
P
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Nov 4, 2020, 09:15 PM
 
This election needs to be over, I should go to sleep...

Anyway: I think Biden will win PA eventually, but I really really hope that he pulls off NV and AZ, because PA is going to take a long time. GA is a possibility, but NC is also going to take a long time to get ready, it seems.

I do not understand Fox calling AZ. Biden is up by 100k votes or so, but Trump will catch up if he does 60-40 in the remaining outstanding votes. That is not impossible.

NV hasn’t been called. That one was seen as dead safe for Dems in every analysis I saw, and now it is likely going to end up closer to 50-50 than AZ. It seems we’re getting some votes there in about an hour or so.

In total, I suspect that Trump has managed to get his supporters out to back him one more time, because total number of voters is very high pretty much everywhere. Wisconsin in particular is surprising that it is that close again.

So far, 538 has only missed one state - Florida, which was slightly favored for Biden - although every outstanding state needs to go to Biden now to keep that streak.
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MacNNFamous
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Nov 4, 2020, 09:32 PM
 
Man.... if Trump wins... ****. Imma lose hope, gents. I've already lost most of it after the DNC ****ed bernie. Twice.
     
reader50
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Nov 4, 2020, 10:06 PM
 
FiveThirtyEight has a page covering when votes are expected from each state. Cliff notes below:

Alaska (3 votes) - Nov 12-18 before a winner is called. Trump expected to win.
Georgia (16 votes) - Nov 4-5. Mail votes only accepted after Election day if mailed from overseas. Too close to call.
Nevada (6 votes) - Unprecedented absentee numbers. Mail votes accepted up to Nov 10. Biden expected to win.
North Carolina (15 votes) - seems to be having trouble counting. Mail votes accepted up to Nov 12. Too close to call.
Pennsylvania (20 votes) - likely the slowest. Mail votes accepted up to Nov 6. Most votes probably counted by Friday, but counting will continue at least into next week. Biden expected to win, eventually.
     
P
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Nov 5, 2020, 03:41 AM
 
Sleeping for six hours and nothing important happens? Pick up the pace, election officials, we want some action here. It’s not like you’re going to get sued for doing your job or anything, right?
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MacNNFamous
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Nov 5, 2020, 10:28 AM
 
My guesses:

Alaska TRUMP WE DONT NEED NO LIBTARD FAGS WE ARE TOUGH MANLY MEN I DON"T NEED NO MASK I FIGHT BEARS FOR FUN
Georgia TRUMP HELL YEAH MY COUSIN IS HOT SHE LET ME EIFLE TOWER HER BACK IN MIDDLE SCHOOL BEFORE I QUIT ALL THAT SHIT MAGA WOOOO
Nevada (6 votes) - Hookers.... addicts.... gamblers.... yeah...uh... hopefully blue?!
North Carolina (15 votes) - MAGA BABY WE GOT OUR HOUSES **** YOUNG PEOPLE WE DONT NEED THEIR SOCIALISM
Pennsylvania Honestly no idea on this one. My only experience with the state was Philly... so... no idea.

So.... from what was posted above tho, Nevada can't be called until the 10th?! JFC.
     
Spheric Harlot
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Nov 5, 2020, 01:20 PM
 
Originally Posted by MacNNFamous View Post
My guesses:

Alaska TRUMP WE DONT NEED NO LIBTARD FAGS WE ARE TOUGH MANLY MEN I DON"T NEED NO MASK I FIGHT BEARS FOR FUN
Palin Country.
     
reader50
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Nov 5, 2020, 02:30 PM
 
Georgia is having a blue shift as remaining ballots are counted. Trump lead has fallen to 0.3% as of this post.
Pennsylvania also shifting blue. Was Trump ~10% on election night, fell to 5%, was 2.6% last night, is 1.8% this morning.
Nevada was Biden +0.6 % last night, this morning it's Biden 0.9%.

Any of the above might get called today once a pattern becomes clear (Nevada) and when/if they go positive (Georgia, Penn).
     
subego
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Nov 5, 2020, 03:09 PM
 
So, umm, this election just happened to turn out as the most ridiculous squeaker ever. Totally random chance.

/foilhat
     
MacNNFamous
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Nov 5, 2020, 04:48 PM
 
It's all rigged. I found this thread pretty enlightening.

https://www.reddit.com/r/WayOfTheBer..._flipping_was/
     
Laminar
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Nov 5, 2020, 05:41 PM
 
WayOfTheBern is just Trump supporters cosplaying as Bernie supporters.
     
OAW
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Nov 5, 2020, 06:24 PM
 
Biden just lost Florida because because he underperformed in Miami-Dade County. Why? Because ever since Trump was elected he's been spending time in Florida with the Cuban-American community calling Dems "socialists". They came out in droves for Trump because of that. Now imagine how amped Republicans in general across the country would be if a self-described "socialist" was the Dem nominee? This is the fundamental thing that Bernie Bros can't get through their head. It doesn't matter if the American electorate actually supports policies which are arguably "socialist" by large margins. What matters is that the American electorate is afraid of the "socialist" label because they associate it (incorrectly) with communism.

Trump wins Florida: Gets boost by strong turnout by Cuban-Americans in Miami-Dade County | USAToday

OAW
     
reader50
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Nov 5, 2020, 06:32 PM
 
It appears ~5% of Trump voters lied to the pollsters before the election. Saying they would vote for Biden. This is the simplest explanation for the polls being so far off nationally.
     
Waragainstsleep  (op)
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Nov 5, 2020, 07:59 PM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
It appears ~5% of Trump voters lied to the pollsters before the election. Saying they would vote for Biden. This is the simplest explanation for the polls being so far off nationally.
Is that more of them or less of them than were too ashamed to admit they were voting for Trump last time?
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
reader50
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Nov 5, 2020, 08:41 PM
 
Don't know that answer.

Pennsylvania Trump lead has declined to: 1.0%
Georgia Trump lead has declined to: 0.1%
     
P
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Nov 5, 2020, 08:47 PM
 
I’m a little bit annoyed at the Illuminati scriptwriters dragging it out so long, but I have to admit, those guys know how to craft a compelling narrative. Georgia is now 3600 votes up for Trump with 1% left to count.

Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
It appears ~5% of Trump voters lied to the pollsters before the election. Saying they would vote for Biden. This is the simplest explanation for the polls being so far off nationally.
I keep seeing this that the polls were so far off. They weren’t really. FiveThirtyEight has missed one state so far - Florida - although they are highly likely to miss one more (NC). Both FL and NC were “slightly favored” for Biden, which means that Trump had a 30%+ chance of winning them. If you want to find the big surprise, it is actually Nevada which was seen as rather safe blue and it still hasn’t been called.

No, what is unique is the turnout. Trump has managed to get his base to come out in droves to vote. He will in all likelihood be the candidate with the second most votes in a presidential election ever - behind Biden, obviously, but above every winner before, including Obama ‘08.

If you extend the forecast to the Senate, FiveThirtyEight missed one - Maine - and seems likely to miss another - again, it’s NC. Both Georgia races are heading to a run-off right now, which they always predicted even though it wasn’t obvious if you just looked at the figures. The House polling has more misses, but it is also obvious that their method breaks down when there are fewer polls of each race.
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Nov 5, 2020, 11:13 PM
 
I just...can’t. I can’t understand how you folks can be the best at almost anything, but still be such imbeciles with something as easy as voting.

Sigh. You’re a fascinating people. I suppose that much confidence and conviction might inevitably mean gaping blind spots when it comes to fatal flaws—or maybe they’re just so intertwined that it makes no differences.
     
reader50
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Nov 6, 2020, 12:43 AM
 
Originally Posted by P View Post
I keep seeing this that the polls were so far off. They weren’t really. FiveThirtyEight has missed one state so far - Florida - although they are highly likely to miss one more (NC). Both FL and NC were “slightly favored” for Biden, which means that Trump had a 30%+ chance of winning them. If you want to find the big surprise, it is actually Nevada which was seen as rather safe blue and it still hasn’t been called.
It's not the state calls, it's the margins. From FiveThirtyEight:

Michigan. Predicted: Biden +8.0 (actual B +2.7) error: T+5.3%
Wisconsin. Predicted: Biden +8.3 (actual B +0.7) error: T+7.6%
Nevada. Predicted: Biden +6.1 (actual may end up B+1) error T+5%
Florida. Predicted: Biden +2.5 (actual T+3.3) error T+5.8%
Ohio. Predicted: Trump +0.6 (actual T+8.2) error T+7.6%
Iowa. Predicted: Trump +1.5 (actual T+8.2) error T+6.7%
South Carolina. Predicted: Trump +7.5 (actual T+11.6) error T+4.1%
Maine. Predicted: Biden +11.8 (actual B+8.7) error T+3.1%
Wyoming. Predicted: Trump +34.8 (actual T+43.7) error T+8.9%

The problem affects most swing states, always in Trump's favor. The errors fall off as states move into safe territory in either direction, but not always.
     
P
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Nov 6, 2020, 03:46 AM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
It's not the state calls, it's the margins. From FiveThirtyEight:

Michigan. Predicted: Biden +8.0 (actual B +2.7) error: T+5.3%
Wisconsin. Predicted: Biden +8.3 (actual B +0.7) error: T+7.6%
Nevada. Predicted: Biden +6.1 (actual may end up B+1) error T+5%
Florida. Predicted: Biden +2.5 (actual T+3.3) error T+5.8%
Ohio. Predicted: Trump +0.6 (actual T+8.2) error T+7.6%
Iowa. Predicted: Trump +1.5 (actual T+8.2) error T+6.7%
South Carolina. Predicted: Trump +7.5 (actual T+11.6) error T+4.1%
Maine. Predicted: Biden +11.8 (actual B+8.7) error T+3.1%
Wyoming. Predicted: Trump +34.8 (actual T+43.7) error T+8.9%

The problem affects most swing states, always in Trump's favor. The errors fall off as states move into safe territory in either direction, but not always.
Let’s wait until the counting is done - Florida has half a million votes left to count - but these are not absurd numbers. The average polling error over the last 20 years is 5.9%.
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subego
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Nov 6, 2020, 04:51 AM
 
Wisconsin +8?

That one was pretty absurd.
     
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Nov 6, 2020, 06:02 AM
 
Nevada was saying no call until the 12th but Biden's lead is increasing.
Georgia and Pennsylvania might call today and the WSJ was reporting Trump's lead in GA was now under 500 votes with ~1% left to count so that looks like it will flip.
I think PA is under 20k vote lead for Trump with a few hundred thousand to count so thats likely to go Biden too.
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Nov 6, 2020, 06:08 AM
 
Biden is now ahead by 917 votes in Georgia.
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subego
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Nov 6, 2020, 06:23 AM
 
     
Laminar
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Nov 6, 2020, 09:54 AM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
It appears ~5% of Trump voters lied to the pollsters before the election. Saying they would vote for Biden. This is the simplest explanation for the polls being so far off nationally.
Remember: Trump supporters are victims, the Republican party has told them that for four decades now. Their way of life is at stake. They are being oppressed for their GOOD, TRADITIONAL, AMERICAN views and by sharing their views publicly they could be UNFAIRLY ATTACKED FOR THEM by LIBERAL RIOTERS and ANTIFA. Because of that, many of them are afraid to say out loud that they support Trump for fear of social retribution. But in the safe space of the polls, they will gladly fill in that bubble in hopes that Trump protects their marshmallow way of life and defends their fragility.

Originally Posted by subego View Post
I feel like it'd be more helpful if you'd just come out and say what you're trying to say. I think you're hinting at there being something fishy with the way the numbers trended.
     
subego
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Nov 6, 2020, 10:19 AM
 
Originally Posted by Laminar View Post
I feel like it'd be more helpful if you'd just come out and say what you're trying to say. I think you're hinting at there being something fishy with the way the numbers trended.
You’re reading too much into it. All I was trying to say is “have a chuckle at Jeb’s expense”.
     
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Nov 6, 2020, 10:42 AM
 
Jo Jorgenson's expense is how I read it.
     
Doc HM
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Nov 6, 2020, 11:20 AM
 
Looks like Pennsylvania is going to clinch it for Biden.

Thanks to all those cute furry Sylvanian Families for doing the right thing!!
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