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Obama wins election
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besson3c
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Oct 31, 2008, 11:22 AM
 
1. In order to win the election, all Barack Obama needs are the Kerry states, plus Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico. That adds up to 273 electoral votes.

2. Obama leads by at least 9.5% in every Kerry state and Iowa, according to both Pollster.com and Real Clear Politics. Also, my own numbers concur with those calculations.

3. This means that in order to win the election, all Obama has to do is hold onto states where he leads by 9.5% or more, and win both Colorado and New Mexico. These are both states where more than half of all voters will cast their ballots before Election Day (source). In other words, the elections in Colorado and New Mexico are already almost over, not just beginning. And these are the only two states he needs to win, other than the ones where he leads by double-digits.

4. In Colorado, about 60% of the vote is already in. According to the crosstabs of the three most recent polls in the state, Obama leads early voters by 15% (Rasmussen), 18% (Marist) and 17% (PPP). Even in the best case scenario for McCain, where he only trails by 15% among those who have already voted and only 55% of the vote is in, he still needs to win the remaining voters by 18.4% in order to eek out the state. And that is the best-case scenario. The worst case scenario for McCain--65% of the vote in and an 18% deficit among early voters--is that he needs to win the remaining voters by 33.5% in order to win the election.

5. That leaves New Mexico. In 2004, New Mexico had an even higher rate of early voting than Colorado (50.6% to 47.9%). Further, all polling aggregation sites show Obama's lead to be larger in New Mexico than in Colorado. While the recent dearth of polling in the Land of Enchantment means there are no early voting crosstabs, those two facts suggest the situation is even worse for McCain in New Mexico than in Colorado. At the very least, it isn't much better. Update: A new poll from PPP in New Mexico indicates that 56% of the vote is in, and Obama leads 64%-36% among those voters. If that is accurate, McCain would have to win the remaining voters by 35.7%.

So, unless Obama one of the following occurs:

* Obama blows a double-digit lead in either Iowa or one Kerry state
* McCain wins the minority of remaining voters in either Colorado or New Mexico by at least 20%

Then the election is over and Obama has won no matter what happens anywhere else.
http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=9555


Early voting results:

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
     
Dakar V
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Oct 31, 2008, 11:24 AM
 
These threads are bad enough without non-Americans posting them...
     
besson3c  (op)
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Oct 31, 2008, 11:25 AM
 
What do you think? Legitimacy to the argument?
     
Dakar V
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Oct 31, 2008, 11:26 AM
 
I think wait a couple days and stop counting your ****ing chickens.
     
besson3c  (op)
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Oct 31, 2008, 11:33 AM
 
I'm not necessarily counting them, I'm just posting this to see whether the argument is disputable, and on what basis?
     
Dakar V
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Oct 31, 2008, 11:37 AM
 
The argument is meaningless, and the thread title is sensationalistic.
     
besson3c  (op)
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Oct 31, 2008, 11:37 AM
 
One other scenario I can see for this being wrong is people lying on their exit polls on purpose...

I don't know if people are collectively that smart, but it's a possibility.
     
besson3c  (op)
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Oct 31, 2008, 11:39 AM
 
Originally Posted by Dakar V View Post
The argument is meaningless, and the thread title is sensationalistic.
How so? What difference is there in calling the state when 60% of the vote is in based using exit polls, as opposed to doing the same thing on election day before any vote is actually counted? The difference is all of the remaining voters, but at what point does the deficit become so great that the state can be safely called?
     
Dakar V
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Oct 31, 2008, 11:39 AM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
One other scenario I can see for this being wrong is people lying on their exit polls on purpose...

I don't know if people are collectively that smart, but it's a possibility.
There's two things to consider: 2004 and the Bradley Effect. That's enough to make this entire presumption preposterous.
     
besson3c  (op)
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Oct 31, 2008, 11:45 AM
 
Originally Posted by Dakar V View Post
There's two things to consider: 2004 and the Bradley Effect. That's enough to make this entire presumption preposterous.
What does 2004 have to do with it? The notion that polls unanimously showed a Kerry victory is a complete myth. I mean, some did, but RCP didn't, nor did many others... As far as the Bradley Effect, do you really think that race will be that big of an issue? It wasn't with the Democratic primaries. The Bradley Effect will have to be HUGE to counteract a lead of over 9.5% in the Kerry states plus Iowa, and then around 6% or so in NM/CO.
     
Shaddim
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Oct 31, 2008, 11:46 AM
 
I think the popular vote will be much closer than Obama's people can imagine (within 2%). But, he'll still win the electoral college in a landslide.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
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Dakar V
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Oct 31, 2008, 11:48 AM
 
What's the point besson? What is to be gained from this thread?
     
besson3c  (op)
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Oct 31, 2008, 11:49 AM
 
According to fivethirtyeight.com there is only a 4.6% chance of McCain winning the popular vote based on all possible scenarios, although I'm not sure how that is calculated.
     
besson3c  (op)
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Oct 31, 2008, 11:51 AM
 
Originally Posted by Dakar V View Post
What's the point besson? What is to be gained from this thread?
If you've become a poll nut like me, it will be interesting to see if this mathematically does turn out to be true is all, and how soon other sources make the same determination... I'm not calling for some sort of victory lap.
     
Dakar V
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Oct 31, 2008, 11:52 AM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
What does 2004 have to do with it? The notion that polls unanimously showed a Kerry victory is a complete myth. I mean, some did, but RCP didn't, nor did many others...
No one said unanimously.

Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
As far as the Bradley Effect, do you really think that race will be that big of an issue? It wasn't with the Democratic primaries. The Bradley Effect will have to be HUGE to counteract a lead of over 9.5% in the Kerry states plus Iowa, and then around 6% or so in NM/CO.
There's a big difference between party primaries and open elections.
     
Dakar V
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Oct 31, 2008, 11:55 AM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
If you've become a poll nut like me, it will be interesting to see if this mathematically does turn out to be true is all, and how soon other sources make the same determination... I'm not calling for some sort of victory lap.
Then this probably should have gone in the Electoral prediction thread, like many other similar posts I've seen.

But thanks for the sensationalistic thread title. I'm sure you'd be equally accepting of it if some conservative posted the same thing if situations were reversed. "I mean what's the point? I mean, sure, this could be right, but we won't really know until the election ends and the polls are in. Trying to predict the outcome until then is pointless because so many variables could change between now and then."
     
besson3c  (op)
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Oct 31, 2008, 11:56 AM
 
Originally Posted by Dakar V View Post
No one said unanimously.

There's a big difference between party primaries and open elections.

True. I definitely don't think that this is complete enough of a picture to credibly call the race this early, but it looks like what it does tell us is where to place bets. We knew where to place bets prior, but the added ingredient is some actual election data.
     
Dakar V
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Oct 31, 2008, 11:57 AM
 
Who needs to place bets? Why?
     
besson3c  (op)
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Oct 31, 2008, 11:59 AM
 
Originally Posted by Dakar V View Post
Then this probably should have gone in the Electoral prediction thread, like many other similar posts I've seen.

But thanks for the sensationalistic thread title. I'm sure you'd be equally accepting of it if some conservative posted the same thing if situations were reversed. "I mean what's the point? I mean, sure, this could be right, but we won't really know until the election ends and the polls are in. Trying to predict the outcome until then is pointless because so many variables could change between now and then."
I think that what it does show is that once we start to see actual election day exit polls start trickling in (and I'm assuming they are tabulated somewhere as they come in) and they look similar to these early polling results, it will be fairly easy to call these respective states before any votes are actually counted.

What I don't know is how wildly different early polling and election day results have been and will be this year.
     
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Oct 31, 2008, 11:59 AM
 
...Annnnnnd Bess tempts fate.

Been inclined to wander... off the beaten track.
That's where there's thunder... and the wind shouts back.
     
besson3c  (op)
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Oct 31, 2008, 12:00 PM
 
Originally Posted by Dakar V View Post
Who needs to place bets? Why?
Have you heard of Intrade?

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/t...elConID=409933

I don't know exactly how useful this data is, but it is some sort of metric that many pollsters use.
     
Dakar V
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Oct 31, 2008, 12:01 PM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
I think that what it does show is that once we start to see actual election day exit polls start trickling in (and I'm assuming they are tabulated somewhere as they come in) and they look similar to these early polling results, it will be fairly easy to call these respective states before any votes are actually counted.
Is this important for some reason? Is it even ethically responsible to do so?
     
besson3c  (op)
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Oct 31, 2008, 12:02 PM
 
Dakar: besides, what is "the point" of any other electoral college/popular vote prediction?
     
Dakar V
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Oct 31, 2008, 12:03 PM
 
Originally Posted by Doofy View Post
...Annnnnnd Bess tempts fate.
The best part is he can't even vote in the election.

Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
Have you heard of Intrade?
You'll have to explain what exactly that site does.
     
besson3c  (op)
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Oct 31, 2008, 12:04 PM
 
Originally Posted by Dakar V View Post
Is this important for some reason? Is it even ethically responsible to do so?
It has become the standard. Have you not noticed that many states have been called before any actual votes are counted in these past elections?

Geez, if you aren't into predictions, cool, but I don't see how this discussion is vastly different from any other prediction/poll type thread. Your best argument might be that this thread belongs in the EC Prediction thread, but I thought that throwing in actual data into the mix was interesting enough to warrant a thread of its own. Maybe I was wrong, but not a big deal, is it?
     
zerostar
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Oct 31, 2008, 12:05 PM
 
Thanks for the article. I will say here in FL we have seen very low youth turnout right now. There was a spike the first few days and now it is down to normal levels.

If Obama intends to win FL that will be a major thing to overcome I think... are they all waiting for Tuesday? I don't know....

Now, I will argue he doesn't even need FL, and I already posted my EV predictions in the other thread.
     
Dakar V
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Oct 31, 2008, 12:05 PM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
Dakar: besides, what is "the point" of any other electoral college/popular vote prediction?
In the here and now, subject matter for talking heads to fill time and get ratings leading to advertising revenue for the cable news networks. In the future, to tie events during the campaigns and their effects to the polls, leading to more effective campaign strategies.
     
zerostar
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Oct 31, 2008, 12:07 PM
 
Originally Posted by Doofy View Post
...Annnnnnd Bess tempts fate.
You think 100 or 1,000 posts saying OBAMA WINS will do something to the cosmic shift of the universe to make it not true? If so I am off the post the opposite....
     
besson3c  (op)
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Oct 31, 2008, 12:07 PM
 
Originally Posted by Dakar V View Post
You'll have to explain what exactly that site does.

It basically comes up with stock-like candidate "share" values based on public opinion and user feedback. I've never placed a "bet", or whatever they call them there, but you'll see that the Intrade values are displayed prominently on the RCP site. I suppose it will be interesting to see how accurate they'll be.
     
Dakar V
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Oct 31, 2008, 12:08 PM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
It has become the standard. Have you not noticed that many states have been called before any actual votes are counted in these past elections?
It's standard to call it after polls close. Not 4 days before polls open.

Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
Geez, if you aren't into predictions, cool, but I don't see how this discussion is vastly different from any other prediction/poll type thread.
Neither do I, which is why I'm asking why this necessitated it's own thread with sensationalistic title.

Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
Your best argument might be that this thread belongs in the EC Prediction thread, but I thought that throwing in actual data into the mix was interesting enough to warrant a thread of its own. Maybe I was wrong, but not a big deal, is it?
Claiming that a presidential election has already been decided is not a big deal?
     
Dakar V
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Oct 31, 2008, 12:09 PM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
It basically comes up with stock-like candidate "share" values based on public opinion and user feedback. I've never placed a "bet", or whatever they call them there, but you'll see that the Intrade values are displayed prominently on the RCP site. I suppose it will be interesting to see how accurate they'll be.
Does this deal with real money, or is it more internet masturbation?
     
zerostar
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Oct 31, 2008, 12:10 PM
 
Originally Posted by Dakar V View Post
Does this deal with real money, or is it more internet masturbation?
Real dollars are being gambled, millions.
     
besson3c  (op)
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Oct 31, 2008, 12:11 PM
 
Originally Posted by Dakar V View Post
In the here and now, subject matter for talking heads to fill time and get ratings leading to advertising revenue for the cable news networks. In the future, to tie events during the campaigns and their effects to the polls, leading to more effective campaign strategies.
Hey, I'm new to being a poll nut. If all of this stuff turns up being completely misleading, the next time around I will pretty much ignore it.

It's not like I'm even *that* attached to the outcome with my poll obsession. I mean, I'm not out there going door to door and being a part of that whole GOTV thing. I'm not waving pom poms or doing all of the sorts of things that MoveOn wants their readers to do. In fact, I haven't done a single thing - including place a donation. What I'm interested in is the overall process and the inexact science of making predictions from a purely analytical perspective.
     
ort888
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Oct 31, 2008, 12:12 PM
 

My sig is 1 pixel too big.
     
besson3c  (op)
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Oct 31, 2008, 12:14 PM
 
Originally Posted by Dakar V View Post
It's standard to call it after polls close. Not 4 days before polls open.
The polls are open now, recording early voting exit polls.

Neither do I, which is why I'm asking why this necessitated it's own thread with sensationalistic title.
If it was renamed to "dude makes argument that states that Obama has won election", would you have no problem with this thread?

Claiming that a presidential election has already been decided is not a big deal?
It depends on what sources you trust. Every major pundit and journalistic source will call the election at different times with different amounts of conservatism in their prediction. I would say that it doesn't really start to matter until one of the more conservative sources has made their determination and others follow suit.


(and by "conservative" I don't mean the Republican party backers)
     
olePigeon
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Oct 31, 2008, 12:14 PM
 
Originally Posted by Dakar V View Post
I think wait a couple days and stop counting your ****ing chickens.
Your obsenity was strangely appropriate in and out of context.
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Dakar V
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Oct 31, 2008, 12:14 PM
 
Originally Posted by zerostar View Post
Real dollars are being gambled, millions.
So have they paid out to all the people who bet on Obama, or are they, too waiting for Election Day?
     
besson3c  (op)
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Oct 31, 2008, 12:16 PM
 
Dakar: have you ever tried to obtain information about a movie, TV show, or Apple product before it came out? This is pretty much the same sort of thing, no?
     
turtle777
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Oct 31, 2008, 12:18 PM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
Obama wins election
I'm going as a whore for Halloween!

Oh, wait, that was YOU. Nevermind.

-t
     
Spheric Harlot
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Oct 31, 2008, 12:18 PM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
How so? What difference is there in calling the state when 60% of the vote is in based using exit polls, as opposed to doing the same thing on election day before any vote is actually counted? The difference is all of the remaining voters, but at what point does the deficit become so great that the state can be safely called?
The elephant in the room that nobody's talking about is that there's a LOT of people who won't vote for a black man, regardless of political sympathies.
     
Dakar V
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Oct 31, 2008, 12:22 PM
 
Originally Posted by ort888 View Post
Not even %s? Anyway, everyone knows kids are scared of old people.

Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
The polls are open now, recording early voting exit polls.
How does that work exactly?

Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
If it was renamed to "dude makes argument that states that Obama has won election", would you have no problem with this thread?
At the very least I'd stop making fun of the awful thread title. I still think it's fairly worthless outside of context with other poll predictions.

Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
It depends on what sources you trust.
Give me a break. Claiming an election is already decided is a big deal.
     
Dakar V
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Oct 31, 2008, 12:25 PM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
Dakar: have you ever tried to obtain information about a movie, TV show, or Apple product before it came out? This is pretty much the same sort of thing, no?
Obtaining information and making bold definitive statements with possible unforseen consequences are two different things. I haven't condemned polling for existing.
     
zerostar
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Oct 31, 2008, 12:28 PM
 
Originally Posted by Dakar V View Post
Obtaining information and making bold definitive statements with possible unforseen consequences are two different things..
The only consequence I can see is complacency that one party has already won so why bother to vote? But I doubt the 20-30 people who see this will be swayed by it, I just don't see what the big deal is.
     
Dakar V
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Oct 31, 2008, 12:37 PM
 
Originally Posted by zerostar View Post
The only consequence I can see is complacency that one party has already won so why bother to vote? But I doubt the 20-30 people who see this will be swayed by it, I just don't see what the big deal is.
It's not the concrete consequences of this thread that bother me, so much as the attitude behind it. I think I've been clear and consistent on that so far.
     
zerostar
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Oct 31, 2008, 01:10 PM
 
Originally Posted by Dakar V View Post
It's not the concrete consequences of this thread that bother me, so much as the attitude behind it. I think I've been clear and consistent on that so far.
I can understand that, but again, I see it as bad-on-them kind of attitude. Obama wining is not a foregone conclusion, yes the polls are really good for him and it looks like he will with the EV. but as he said, don't get excited too early!
     
besson3c  (op)
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Oct 31, 2008, 01:57 PM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
I'm going as a whore for Halloween!

Oh, wait, that was YOU. Nevermind.

-t

Yeah, that was me, that's true.
     
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Oct 31, 2008, 02:13 PM
 
I'll back up besson on this one.

If the election were held today, then Obama victory. Whether McCain can make up the ground among likely voters in just a few days is the question. The answer to that question is that most likely he cannot. Obama victory!

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Mrjinglesusa
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Oct 31, 2008, 03:54 PM
 
Originally Posted by Dakar V View Post
It's standard to call it after polls close. Not 4 days before polls open.

Neither do I, which is why I'm asking why this necessitated it's own thread with sensationalistic title.

Claiming that a presidential election has already been decided is not a big deal?
Not in a freakin' Mac forum. Get a grip.
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Dakar V
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Oct 31, 2008, 03:56 PM
 
Originally Posted by Mrjinglesusa View Post
Not in a freakin' Mac forum. Get a grip.
Look past besson's thread title. To the people who want to say its been wrapped up days before election.
     
besson3c  (op)
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Oct 31, 2008, 04:01 PM
 
It was a blog post, the one I provided the URL for. The blogger is basically just preaching to the choir, and I think made things clear that his post is his projection, and not an official organization's or media outlet's opinion.
     
 
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