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You are here: MacNN Forums > Community > MacNN Lounge > Will the iPhone be #1?

Will the iPhone be #1?
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PowerbookG3
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Jan 10, 2007, 05:39 PM
 
I mean #1 in the Smart phone industry.
If so, reply.
If not, reply.
     
::maroma::
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Jan 10, 2007, 05:48 PM
 
It has the potential to become #1 within a few years, if and only if Apple makes the right moves. But thats a big if. This isn't the iPod, where there was no market and it created one. This is an already existing market with people who are in deep with the smart phones they already have. So grabbing #1 is not an easy thing.

But one would be foolish to totally discount Apple in achieving this. Apple wants 1% right now, and they'll probably get it and more. 99% is a long road.
     
alligator
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Jan 10, 2007, 05:50 PM
 
Not until the price drops. If they also made it 60 GB of flash memory, then I'd think it would really take off. Right now, I can't put many movies on the device.
     
PowerbookG3  (op)
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Jan 10, 2007, 05:58 PM
 
I havn't read all the specs, but how much memory does it have?
     
::maroma::
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Jan 10, 2007, 06:03 PM
 
Originally Posted by PowerbookG3 View Post
I havn't read all the specs, but how much memory does it have?
4GB and 8GB capacity options. Or did you mean actual RAM?
     
King Bob On The Cob
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Jan 10, 2007, 06:10 PM
 
Originally Posted by alligator View Post
Not until the price drops. If they also made it 60 GB of flash memory, then I'd think it would really take off. Right now, I can't put many movies on the device.
Yes, and that would've increased the price by $200-$300 by my estimates.
     
mduell
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Jan 10, 2007, 06:27 PM
 
It will probably be #1, but with a very small percentage of the market (3?).

Anyone have current marketshare stats by model rather than by company or platform?
     
PowerbookG3  (op)
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Jan 10, 2007, 06:34 PM
 
i mean space
     
RAILhead
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Jan 10, 2007, 06:40 PM
 
I need a few more iPhone threads to start before I answer this.
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Dark Helmet
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Jan 10, 2007, 06:51 PM
 
Not for a while.

It still have that "non serious, guys in suits can't use it, security bla bla" image.

That aside with only Cingular as a provider for years they can't win em all.

#1 one the east side!


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DeathMan
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Jan 10, 2007, 07:28 PM
 
The original ipod was never going to take over in the form it was first released. It was expensive, mac only, and firewire only, which at the time was all fairly luxury. As the product takes over the top shelf, Apple will continue create down-iterations until there is a iPhone for $100 that is a lot like the one we will soon have, but by then the 3rd or 4th gen top of the line iPhone will be much better in other ways.

Something like this seems like huge undertaking. But being able to buy music from your phone seems nice, especially if you can eventually buy from Amazon, Yahoo (non DRM) or Emusic. The VCast stuff I hear on the radio seems pretty lame.

To me its still all about music. But I hate carrying an ipod and a phone. I'd like to buy this, but a lot of it will depend on what it costs for the service. Will there be a special iPhone data plan that isn't a complete rip-off?
     
Wiskedjak
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Jan 10, 2007, 08:19 PM
 
Originally Posted by ::maroma:: View Post
4GB and 8GB capacity options.
At least some of which is taken up by the OS.
     
Wiskedjak
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Jan 10, 2007, 08:25 PM
 
Originally Posted by DeathMan View Post
The original ipod was never going to take over in the form it was first released. It was expensive, mac only, and firewire only, which at the time was all fairly luxury. As the product takes over the top shelf, Apple will continue create down-iterations until there is a iPhone for $100 that is a lot like the one we will soon have, but by then the 3rd or 4th gen top of the line iPhone will be much better in other ways.

Something like this seems like huge undertaking. But being able to buy music from your phone seems nice, especially if you can eventually buy from Amazon, Yahoo (non DRM) or Emusic. The VCast stuff I hear on the radio seems pretty lame.

To me its still all about music. But I hate carrying an ipod and a phone. I'd like to buy this, but a lot of it will depend on what it costs for the service. Will there be a special iPhone data plan that isn't a complete rip-off?
Excellent point. The iPod grew mostly down (mini, shuffle, nano), and slightly up (video). We may see the same trend for the iPhone which is, right now, designed as an early-adopter product. It may take 4 years before we see the people's iPhone, just as it took 4 years for the people's iPod (shuffle) to emerge.
     
Eriamjh
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Jan 10, 2007, 09:40 PM
 
Almost $1 billion dollars in cell phones sold last year. Where is the breakdown of how much is for each company? Who is #1 right now? Is there someone with 30% market share while the rest have about 2% each or is there one big leader and the rest followers (like the iPod/MP3 player market)?

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mduell
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Jan 10, 2007, 10:02 PM
 
Originally Posted by Eriamjh View Post
Almost $1 billion dollars in cell phones sold last year. Where is the breakdown of how much is for each company? Who is #1 right now? Is there someone with 30% market share while the rest have about 2% each or is there one big leader and the rest followers (like the iPod/MP3 player market)?
$1b seems low, given that nearly a billion cell phones were shipped.
Nokia had 40% in 2006 (up from 30% in 2005), Motorola had 20%, Samsung had 13%, and LG had 7%.
Moto had the #1 phone with the various incarnations of the RAZR.
     
turtle777
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Jan 10, 2007, 10:03 PM
 
I fully agree.

-t
     
Agasthya
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Jan 11, 2007, 12:59 AM
 
Until they get corporate (Exchange, Office) support, it will lag behind Windows Mobile and Blackberrys. The majority of the "smart phone" business comes from the corporate sector... I just can't see a lot amount of consumers putting down between 500 and 600 dollars for an iPod phone (plus the cost of the data plan, voice plan, etc, etc).
     
Gossamer
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Jan 11, 2007, 01:41 AM
 
Originally Posted by alligator View Post
Not until the price drops. If they also made it 60 GB of flash memory, then I'd think it would really take off. Right now, I can't put many movies on the device.
Originally Posted by King Bob On The Cob View Post
Yes, and that would've increased the price by $200-$300 by my estimates.
Last I heard you couldn't get 60GB of flash memory, and since 2GB flash drives sell for anywhere from $40-$60, the price of a 60GB flash module would be absolutely ludicrous.
     
V12
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Jan 11, 2007, 02:18 AM
 
i think the iphone will be a sidekick/blackberry/smartphone/pda killer in time, once that price drops to $300 or less with contract, and non-mac heads like us get to use the phone. Also no one has considered what running OSX on a phone will actually do for macintosh sales. The same way mac lured in ms costomers with the simplicity of the ipod and itunes, they will hope the simplicity of the iphone will lure further customers to macintosh computers.
     
Miniryu
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Jan 11, 2007, 03:59 AM
 
Originally Posted by Gossamer View Post
Last I heard you couldn't get 60GB of flash memory, and since 2GB flash drives sell for anywhere from $40-$60, the price of a 60GB flash module would be absolutely ludicrous.
I have a 60gig flash drive. Sure it cost me $1,500, but boy was it worth it! Who needs a Macbook when I can carry all 6 seasons of Smallville on my keychaint?

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Miniryu
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Jan 11, 2007, 04:02 AM
 
Originally Posted by ::maroma:: View Post
Apple wants 1% right now, and they'll probably get it and more. 99% is a long road.
It takes a lot less than 100% market share to be #1. Although pushing every single competitor out of the market is a nice goal.

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Salty
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Jan 11, 2007, 04:30 PM
 
I imagine it'll be number one in consumer's minds. I think it'll still be behind other phones for a while in market share. A long while actually. My guess is that we'll see a few more traditional iPhones. For example a slider that has a click wheel on the front, and a key pad under it. And a few other more traditional designs. I think Apple will come out with a few other phones that are easier/cheaper to get into the hands of consumers.
     
Gossamer
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Jan 11, 2007, 04:32 PM
 
Originally Posted by Salty View Post
I imagine it'll be number one in consumer's minds. I think it'll still be behind other phones for a while in market share. A long while actually. My guess is that we'll see a few more traditional iPhones. For example a slider that has a click wheel on the front, and a key pad under it. And a few other more traditional designs. That said, I think Apple will come out with a few other phones that are easier/cheaper to get into the hands of consumers.
Fixed.
     
Salty
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Jan 11, 2007, 04:39 PM
 
Originally Posted by Gossamer View Post
Fixed.
What you just decided to become a troll or something? Seriously it's like you don't even post things other than that retarded image and being critical of the way I write. Get a new gimmic jackass.
     
Gossamer
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Jan 11, 2007, 04:55 PM
 
Originally Posted by Salty View Post
What you just decided to become a troll or something? Seriously it's like you don't even post things other than that retarded image and being critical of the way I write. Get a new gimmic jackass.
I thought it was funny, and I'm sure a couple people will get a chuckle out of it.
     
turtle777
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Jan 11, 2007, 04:57 PM
 
Originally Posted by Gossamer View Post
I thought it was funny, and I'm sure a couple people will get a chuckle out of it.
Actually, it's getting a bit old. Timeline, you know.

-t
     
Dakar²
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Jan 11, 2007, 05:40 PM
 
Second.
     
Gossamer
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Jan 11, 2007, 05:43 PM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
Actually, it's getting a bit old. Timeline, you know.

-t
I was talking about the comment, not the picture. I'm fully aware of its age. It's just waiting for the 401(k) to mature enough for retirement.
     
Salty
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Jan 11, 2007, 05:46 PM
 
Uhh I think in general people are agreeing that the fact that lately it seems you see a post and you troll. Comments like that are fine if you regularly post something that isn't trolling. Otherwise you just become a troll. The reason SWG gets away with it so much is that he posts so much. Lately it seems the only time I read anything of yours it's just trolling. You're getting kinda one dimensional. I mean, trolling me is hardly something new, I mean you're doing things tons of others have done. And besides Doofy does it far better than you do. (not that I'd say he does it well)
     
TAZ
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Jan 11, 2007, 06:10 PM
 
The current iteration of the iPhone or whatever they end up calling it will not reach the #1 in the cell phone industry simply because smartphones in general are not the #1 category when it comes to sales. The general population still wants a phone they can make calls on and afford, both in initial cost and rate plans.

The phone COULD reach #1 in the smatrphone race, but it will take a while and it will need to be 3G or even 4G before it can truly compete.
     
Gossamer
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Jan 11, 2007, 06:17 PM
 
Originally Posted by Salty View Post
Uhh I think in general people are agreeing that the fact that lately it seems you see a post and you troll. Comments like that are fine if you regularly post something that isn't trolling. Otherwise you just become a troll. The reason SWG gets away with it so much is that he posts so much. Lately it seems the only time I read anything of yours it's just trolling. You're getting kinda one dimensional. I mean, trolling me is hardly something new, I mean you're doing things tons of others have done. And besides Doofy does it far better than you do. (not that I'd say he does it well)
     
Kerrigan
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Jan 11, 2007, 06:18 PM
 
The iPhone looks so hot, I really don't care what market share it gets. I'm getting one as soon as they come out.
     
Kerrigan
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Jan 11, 2007, 06:21 PM
 
Originally Posted by Salty View Post
I imagine it'll be number one in consumer's minds. I think it'll still be behind other phones for a while in market share. A long while actually.
Ya exactly. Everyone will want one, lots of people will buy them, but the battle to be the #1 mobile could be a long, uphill climb.
     
Salty
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Jan 11, 2007, 06:46 PM
 
I think the iPhone may never be the #1 however the iPhone slide, iPhone nano, iPhone mini, iPhone micro might be.
     
Jawbone54
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Jan 11, 2007, 06:52 PM
 
Originally Posted by Kerrigan View Post
Ya exactly. Everyone will want one, lots of people will buy them, but the battle to be the #1 mobile could be a long, uphill climb.
I agree.

Most of the people that I know think that the iPhone is an incredible product, but can't justify spending $600 for a device like that when it only has 8 GB of space on it. They want to get rid of their iPods, get rid of their phones, and use the iPhone for it all, but they can't do that with so little space. I still want one, but I'm probably going to wait for a year or so to see about price/storage.
     
osiris
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Jan 11, 2007, 06:57 PM
 
Originally Posted by Salty View Post
I think the iPhone may never be the #1 however the iPhone slide, iPhone nano, iPhone mini, iPhone micro might be.
#1, #2, #3, #4 & #5, respectfully.
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TailsToo
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Jan 11, 2007, 07:27 PM
 
Might be the like the original Mac - a great and innovate machine with no expansion!
     
besson3c
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Jan 11, 2007, 07:50 PM
 
It needs some Groupware integration, particularly Exchange support. The primary target audience of smart phones are likely white business men in suits, many of which are already on Exchange or something similar.
     
Salty
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Jan 11, 2007, 07:50 PM
 
I knew they wouldn't have included a mini SD slot or something, but it would have been nice if they had. In all honesty though even though my library is approaching 4000 songs, I'll probably just get the 4 gig model, and just keep my absolute favourite songs on there.
     
   
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