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besson3c
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Oct 22, 2012, 07:32 PM
 
Originally Posted by OAW View Post

I certainly can't say that you are making the wrong decision my man.
OAW
Can I be your man too?
     
P
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Oct 22, 2012, 10:31 PM
 
Originally Posted by OAW View Post
Maybe it's just me. But if you are going to come on national TV and essentially advocate the exact same foreign policies as the incumbent ... we should vote the incumbent out why? I'm just sayin' ....
OAW
Romney's first plan was to make this a referendum on Obama, and hope to win in a "throw the bums out!" move. That worked initially, but has mostly failed since summer - for one thing, the economy is improving, for another the Dems made a convincing case to their base at the convention and finally Ohio has become THE state to win, and this shtick always worked badly there (auto bailout was popular, etc). This forced him to tone down that argument and make a more traditional "choice" appeal - like Obama did all along.

Romney's plan throughout the debates is to show himself as a plausible choice. He hurt that with the 47 percent comment, but appeared very plausible in the first debate. He knows that foreign policy is never going to win him swing voters, so all he did here was try to appear presidential. Fivethirtyeight.com has Obama a 2-1 favorite, but that means that in one of three elections, Romney wins. It will be a very exciting election night.
The new Mac Pro has up to 30 MB of cache inside the processor itself. That's more than the HD in my first Mac. Somehow I'm still running out of space.
     
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Oct 22, 2012, 11:04 PM
 
Originally Posted by OAW View Post
I certainly can't say that you are making the wrong decision my man.
OAW
It was pretty good, she laughed and even squealed a couple times, and then fell asleep near the end. In ways, she's somewhat like her mother.

I didn't feel bad about her being a little noisy, all the kids there were being noisy. Sounds like I didn't miss much anyway.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
- Thomas Paine
     
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Oct 23, 2012, 12:45 AM
 
Originally Posted by lpkmckenna View Post
A lot of these are not "far left" opinions. They are mainstream opinions.
Seriously, do you think "pro-separation of State and Church" is a "far left" opinion? What planet do you live on?
Even I know that anything that isn't far right is far left.

I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
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Oct 23, 2012, 12:59 AM
 
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
Even I know that anything that isn't far right is far left.
That bait won't work, I'm already bored with that shit.
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Oct 23, 2012, 03:44 AM
 
Originally Posted by OAW View Post
Seriously dude? If you can't acknowledge by now that Romney is a flip-flopper extraordinaire then clearly your distaste for Obama has impaired your ability to see what's right in front of you.
OAW
So you are happy with a known liar who has no idea how to fix the economy, create jobs etc and blames all his mistakes on others, while he leads from the back (coward?). You think 4 more years will help?
You want Biden to step in with his vast knowledge if something happens to Owe-bama? Yeah, we all feel safer. NOT!
     
lpkmckenna
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Oct 23, 2012, 04:00 AM
 
I missed the debate last night, so this morning I was looking for the highlights and I came across this:

Mitt Romney brags on video about aggressively sucking money out of Washington for the Olympics.

How on earth did this man get the Republican nomination after making these kind of comments? (Oh yeah, because every other contender was a complete moron.)


Back to the debate, I was amazed that Romney uttered the stupid talking point about "fewer ships since WWI," without expecting he would get mocked hard for such a moronic comparison. He spend a week bleating this "zinger," so why didn't he think Obama was gonna be ready for it? Romney probably thinks showing your poker opponent your hand is a winning strategy.

I mean seriously: are we fighting Al Qaeda and the Taliban on the open seas? Are we docking battle cruisers on the shores of land-locked Afghanistan?


Regarding China's currency manipulation, I'm just gonna cut'n'paste a comment I made in another thread:

While Romney is right that China is manipulating its currency to be more competitive internationally, there's absolutely nothing that can be done about this. You can threaten a trade war, but this will only hurt American citizens who will then pay more for Chinese-made goods. It will be immense short-term pain for American consumers while providing very little long-term gain for American businesses, if any.

Nations eventually give up currency suppression when they realize how much it hurts its own citizens. China cares more about rapid growth than citizen well-being, and until that changes, this currency issue will not go away.

And of course, just like Romney's vagueness on "loopholes and deductions," he has not said anything specific about exactly how he will "make China pay," making it yet another vague, empty promise from a vague, empty man.


EDIT: Anyways, the lies of the Romney campaign just continue to pile up. The latest:

Ann Romney went on The View and claimed Mitt attended every funeral of Massachusetts soldiers killed overseas. That's a lie.

Romney was against gov't financing of the auto bailouts. Now he says he was for it. That's a lie.

Romney repeated the "apology tour" lie in last night's debate too.

Romney lied about recognizing the need for more women in government and going to women's groups for assistance. They went to him first, before the election was even over. Romney taking credit for the work of others is pretty slimy, even for him.

Why does the Romney campaign tell so many easily-disproved lies? Because they are fncking incompetent.
     
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Oct 23, 2012, 04:12 AM
 
Originally Posted by BadKosh View Post
So you are happy with a known liar who has no idea how to fix the economy, create jobs etc and blames all his mistakes on others, while he leads from the back (coward?).
Which liar are you talking about?
     
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Oct 23, 2012, 04:29 AM
 
I've said it before: American conservatives need to look to Canada for a winning strategy. Here's more proof.

Ethnic riding targeting key to Conservatives' 2011 victory.

Hey, guess what: engaging with minority groups is more successful than ignoring them, or talking down to them! Amazing how that works.

After the Republicans get their asses handed to them in November, will they learn their lesson?
     
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Oct 23, 2012, 04:45 AM
 
Everyone makes mistakes, but this one's pretty funny:

     
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Oct 23, 2012, 06:29 AM
 
And it was all because of a video (repeat for several weeks)
     
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Oct 23, 2012, 06:40 AM
 
Romney reminded me of a kid giving his geography report, listing as many foreign countries as he could whenever possible. That said, you could see he'd been studying up and he seemed to know more than "I can see Russia from my house." Obama seemed very confident.

I fell asleep before the fabulous "horses and bayonets" zinger.
     
The Final Dakar
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Oct 23, 2012, 07:02 AM
 
So, my notes from last night:

• Obama came out swinging from the outset

• Romney picked his spots for battling Bob Shieffer. I'm guessing bullying moderators wasn't polling well.

• Obama finally called out Romney on his flip-flops and you know what? Not the most smooth point to get across. He did it, but it was awkward and somewhat complicated.

• Several times Romney had long answers where Obama looked confused when it was his turn. I think he didn't know where to start but I could see it easily being construed as being outmatched (which he was, in terms of misrepresented views).

• For the second time, Obama absolutely cut off a Romney half-truth at the knees. In the second debate he called out Romney's BS on gas prices noting that they tanked with the economy (mirroring a discussion ebuddy and I had for extra weirdness); This time Romney complains about cuts to parts of the Navy and Obama uses Horses and Bayonets as a metaphor. Succinct and effective.

• Bob Shieffer puts a spotlight on something I'm lamenting: "Mr. Romney where do you stand on our use of drones." The answer comes back he wouldn't change a thing. Of course. I'm probably misremembering but I felt he positively alluded to the NDAA.

• Is it me, or does Romney's allusions to our killing terrorists not winning any friends a complete 180º from conservative policy in 2004, and now completely mirror the liberal position from back then?

• Romney would repeal Obamacare to help add extra funding to the military. Because as an American, I'd rather die young from a preventable condition knowing the Chinese couldn't touch me, than live to be an old age with the threat of foreign invasion forever on my mind. This ****ing country.
     
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Oct 24, 2012, 03:48 AM
 
My notes from the Debate:

  • Obama was coached to be more aggressive and he was.
  • Romney decided to take a lighter tone by not getting dragged into fisticuffs with the President and it worked.
  • Obama scored some, what you could refer to as hit-points against Romney particularly with regard to a capable navy, but they came off as mean-spirited and telling. By the way, horses were used in Iraq and Marines still use bayonets. Otherwise, our Navy has been rendered aging technology because their budgets continue to get slashed. It should also be noted that Carriers do not float around out there by themselves, they're accompanied by -- ships. One more thing, Obama is going to need Virginia and a substantial portion of their output is in fact ship-building.
  • Romney lambasted Obama with the apology tour and Obama stepped in it.


Wrap-up: Obama is once again held to account for the absolute dishonesty in their campaign of slander against Romney. All Romney had to do was not ooze blood from his bottom lip to win this debate. Romney looked like the President and Obama looked like a groveling, desperate challenger with no ideas for the next four years.

Prediction: Romney gets another bump of 2-3 points and wins the election by at least 5% points.
ebuddy
     
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Oct 24, 2012, 06:57 AM
 
Early reaction polls show Obama gaining some ground, not the other way around. Winning Virginia would clinch the election, but he doesn't need it per se. The easiest path to victory is Ohio-Wisconsin-Nevada, and if he loses any of the last two, there are multiple options to gain them back. It's only if he loses Ohio that it gets complicated
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The Final Dakar
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Oct 24, 2012, 07:07 AM
 
Oh, ebuddy.
     
besson3c
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Oct 24, 2012, 07:27 AM
 
5%? WTF ebuddy? I don't think Obama even beat McCain by that much, although that contest didn't end up being remotely close in the electoral college.
     
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Oct 24, 2012, 07:50 AM
 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-20008687
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
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Oct 24, 2012, 07:54 AM
 
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-20008687
Historically, that's been an excellent reason for Americans to vote for the opponent.
     
P
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Oct 24, 2012, 09:00 AM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
5%? WTF ebuddy? I don't think Obama even beat McCain by that much, although that contest didn't end up being remotely close in the electoral college.
Obama won by just over 7 points. Historically that is not a terribly uncommon margin - it's just that GWB beat Kerry by about 2 points and lost the popular vote to Gore by even less that makes us used to all elections being close.
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besson3c
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Oct 24, 2012, 09:27 AM
 
Originally Posted by P View Post

Obama won by just over 7 points. Historically that is not a terribly uncommon margin - it's just that GWB beat Kerry by about 2 points and lost the popular vote to Gore by even less that makes us used to all elections being close.
Wow, it was really that much, huh? I guess I was thinking of the polls, I'm pretty sure they didn't show this wide a spread up to the last day?

It will be interesting to see whether the gap is anywhere near this far this time around.
     
The Final Dakar
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Oct 24, 2012, 09:29 AM
 
It won't be. It'll likely be reminiscent of '04.
     
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Oct 24, 2012, 11:31 AM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
Wow, it was really that much, huh? I guess I was thinking of the polls, I'm pretty sure they didn't show this wide a spread up to the last day?

It will be interesting to see whether the gap is anywhere near this far this time around.
You're right, the polls missed rather significantly last time - some had McCain as close as two points, even if I don't think anyone had him as winner. The reason was their likely voter calculations - Obama brought in much higher numbers of voters from traditionally Democratic leaning groups like minorities and young voters. These calculations are also why the tracking polls are spreading so widely: they have different estimations of who will actually show up to vote. Low education, white, old, rural and male tends to vote GOP, while Dems do better in other groups.

I think the TV news also held off calling it for Obama on election night much longer than they needed to. Everyone had to know that Obama was safe after he picked up states like Ohio, Virginia, Florida and North Carolina early on, but the news got so much criticism for calling Florida for Gore in '00 - potentially suppressing turnout in the West - so they kept pretending that McCain had a chance until polls had closed in continental US.

I suspect that we'll see Obama win by two points. He lost after the first debate, but a lot of that was a return to the average after some very good numbers after the convention and the 47% thing. He'll get to 270 through Ohio-Wisconsin-Nevada and also bring in Iowa and NH. Colorado and Virginia are too close to call, while Romney takes Florida.
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andi*pandi
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Oct 24, 2012, 11:40 AM
 
Maybe we should have a new thread for the betting and retractions after the election. With a poll!
     
subego  (op)
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Oct 24, 2012, 01:43 PM
 
For the strippers.
     
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Oct 25, 2012, 12:34 PM
 
Detriot News says "Thanks for the Bailout, but....

Editorial: Mitt Romney for President
45/47
     
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Oct 25, 2012, 12:37 PM
 
Originally Posted by Chongo View Post
Detriot News says "Thanks for the Bailout, but....
The Detroit News has never endorsed a Democrat. And if I'm not mistaken, in 2004 they withheld their endorsement rather than endorse Bush.

So, you know, context.
     
besson3c
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Oct 25, 2012, 05:15 PM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post


Can I be your man too?
I feel rejected by OAW ignoring this. Maybe OAW is ow-ow, like Abe was rambling about?
     
ebuddy
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Oct 26, 2012, 03:29 AM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
Wow, it was really that much, huh? I guess I was thinking of the polls, I'm pretty sure they didn't show this wide a spread up to the last day?

It will be interesting to see whether the gap is anywhere near this far this time around.
Democrats were oversampled then and they're generally oversampled today. The ones who sample differently on the week based on measured enthusiasm generally fare much better than the ones assuming the same level of energy from Dems in 2008.

The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.

The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com.

On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama’s strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points — 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama’s final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two — Rasmussen and Pew — were spot on.


As it turns out, according to Rasmussen -- at present Romney has a 3% lead and has closed the margin among women. I maintain that Romney will win the election by 5%.
ebuddy
     
The Final Dakar
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Oct 26, 2012, 05:49 AM
 
Not exactly breaking news, but John Sununu is a real piece of shit, isn't he? Doesn't help endear Romney to me that he has him as a surrogate.
     
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Oct 26, 2012, 06:09 AM
 
Rasmussen is playing it safe - they're predicting that Romney wins the popular vote, but implicitly have him losing the electoral college. They're calling Wisconsin and Nevada for Obama and are the only outlier in calling Ohio a perfect tie right now (everyone else has Obama consistently up by two points or more, and Ohio is the state with the most focus from pollsters, the most focus for get-the-vote-out campaigns). Those three states are enough to win the Electoral College. If Obama wins the election, they'll point to the state polling and claim they predicted this all along. If Romney wins, they'll point to their popular vote polling. It's a win-win!

I'm not saying that this is settled, not by a mile, but I'm not going to believe that Rasmussen has some sort of secret sauce that makes them better than everyone else. They claim to focus on robocalls, which has been shown to favor GOP candidates. This bias (statistical term here, don't get emotional) is consistent in all their polls - they rate GOP candidate two points higher or so than the consensus estimates. If Rasmussen is right, every other pollster is wrong all across the country., and quite significantly. That does not seem likely.
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Oct 26, 2012, 06:51 AM
 
Rasmussen is not a credible pollster. "Independent Pollster" Scott Rasmussen Headlines Republican Fundraisers

Originally Posted by ebuddy
As it turns out, according to Rasmussen -- at present Romney has a 3% lead and has closed the margin among women. I maintain that Romney will win the election by 5%.
You've lost your mind.
     
lpkmckenna
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Oct 26, 2012, 07:31 AM
 
Washington Post: Romney spreads fear-mongering lie in Ohio about Jeep moving to China.

The three prongs of the Romney campaign: lies, fear-mongering, and tax-cuts.
     
Chongo
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Oct 26, 2012, 08:01 AM
 
Like this fear mongering?

http://youtu.be/Lvl5Gan69Wo

( Last edited by Chongo; Apr 20, 2015 at 11:53 AM. )
45/47
     
lpkmckenna
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Oct 26, 2012, 08:12 AM
 
Originally Posted by Chongo View Post
Like this fear mongering?
Yes, exactly like that.

Did you happen to notice there is almost no source attribution to anything, and no one takes responsibility for the content?

Is there any chance you could stop posting long, boring video links as "evidence" of something? Between this video and your Mexican martyrs crap, you've robbed me of 20 mins of my life on stuff that could have been summarized in two or three lines.
     
BadKosh
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Oct 26, 2012, 08:17 AM
 
Worry about your own country.
     
lpkmckenna
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Oct 26, 2012, 08:25 AM
 
Originally Posted by BadKosh View Post
Worry about your own country.
I am. The last time you guys tanked your economy, you dragged us down with you. Since you're considering voting for someone even more reckless than Dubya, that worries me.

Besides, your statement is pretty rich considering how Americans are constantly meddling in the affairs of other nations. And you never hear an American say "worry about your own country" while begging nations like Canada to participate in yet another foreign invasion.
     
The Final Dakar
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Oct 26, 2012, 09:34 AM
 
Originally Posted by ebuddy View Post
Democrats were oversampled then and they're generally oversampled today. The ones who sample differently on the week based on measured enthusiasm generally fare much better than the ones assuming the same level of energy from Dems in 2008.
The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.
The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com.
On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama’s strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points — 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama’s final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two — Rasmussen and Pew — were spot on.

As it turns out, according to Rasmussen -- at present Romney has a 3% lead and has closed the margin among women. I maintain that Romney will win the election by 5%.
Couple of things:

First, I couldn't find PPP, which seems odd. Not that I think they were the most accurate (I've heard otherwise).
Second, being the most accurate on election day is not the greatest stat. For starters, it could be a fluke. Next, if you're going to debate polls, two weeks out, wouldn't it be better to focus on whoever was most accurate over the last two weeks of the election (whoever that is)?
Third, as someone for whom 2000 still hurts, isn't worrying about national polls a little short-sighted? Granted I don't see a situation where Obama wins the electoral and Romney wins the popular vote by several percentage points, but wouldn't polls in swing states or aggregators be far more useful or accurate?
     
The Final Dakar
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Oct 26, 2012, 09:36 AM
 
Originally Posted by BadKosh View Post
Worry about your own country.
"Shut up!"
     
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Oct 26, 2012, 09:49 AM
 
Originally Posted by lpkmckenna View Post
I am. The last time you guys tanked your economy, you dragged us down with you. Since you're considering voting for someone even more reckless than Dubya, that worries me.
Besides, your statement is pretty rich considering how Americans are constantly meddling in the affairs of other nations. And you never hear an American say "worry about your own country" while begging nations like Canada to participate in yet another foreign invasion.
You really don't know how Romney would do. You are making assumptions based on what? TV News? Get your 'facts' in 5 sentences?

While I think having multiple nations going after the bad guys is a good idea, I wouldn't ask Canada first, or even second. It would depend on many circumstances.
     
lpkmckenna
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Oct 26, 2012, 10:06 AM
 
Originally Posted by BadKosh View Post
You really don't know how Romney would do. You are making assumptions based on what? TV News? Get your 'facts' in 5 sentences?
We know exactly what Romney wants to do: cut income taxes 20%, bloat the Pentagon budget to a degree never seen in American history, slash funding to quality programs like Planned Parenthood and PBS, and destroy Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. How he would pay for his recklessness tax cuts and military splurge, we don't know, and neither does he.

While I think having multiple nations going after the bad guys is a good idea, I wouldn't ask Canada first, or even second. It would depend on many circumstances.
That's because you don't know sh!t about the history of modern warfare. Canadians have always been seen as highly-prized warriors.
     
subego  (op)
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Oct 26, 2012, 01:20 PM
 
Originally Posted by lpkmckenna View Post
bloat the Pentagon budget to a degree never seen in American history,
In 2009, the Pentagon asked for $500 billion, less some change.

In 1953, the Pentagon asked for $450 billion, less some change.

In 2012, 450 billion 1953 dollars is the equivalent almost four trillion dollars.


Isn't there enough to get the guy on without claiming he's going to quintuple the defense budget?
     
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Oct 26, 2012, 02:41 PM
 
Originally Posted by BadKosh View Post
Worry about your own country.
BadKosh has folded and conceded the argument.
     
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Oct 26, 2012, 04:09 PM
 
Originally Posted by lpkmckenna View Post
The three prongs of the Romney campaign: lies, fear-mongering, and tax-cuts.
The three prongs of the Obama campaign: lies, fear-mongering, and tax-increases.

Ron Paul still wins.

-t
     
Shaddim
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Oct 26, 2012, 04:37 PM
 
Originally Posted by BadKosh View Post
Worry about your own country.
Heh. Right. Like that'll happen any time soon.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
- Thomas Paine
     
besson3c
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Oct 26, 2012, 04:48 PM
 
Originally Posted by Shaddim View Post

Heh. Right. Like that'll happen any time soon.
It's funny to me how the same people that say these sorts of things seem to have some keen insight into how inferior Canada's health care system is.
     
Wiskedjak
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Oct 26, 2012, 04:57 PM
 
Originally Posted by BadKosh View Post
Worry about your own country.
He is. Everyone in the world needs to be concerned about the US elections.
     
Wiskedjak
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Oct 26, 2012, 05:10 PM
 
Originally Posted by BadKosh View Post
You really don't know how Romney would do.
Isn't it a bit of a risk to vote for someone when you really don't know what he'll do?
     
Shaddim
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Oct 26, 2012, 06:02 PM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
It's funny to me how the same people that say these sorts of things seem to have some keen insight into how inferior besson3c's trolling is.
You don't say?
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
- Thomas Paine
     
besson3c
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Oct 26, 2012, 07:53 PM
 
Originally Posted by Shaddim View Post

You don't say?
*insert snippy retort here*
     
 
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