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You are here: MacNN Forums > Community > MacNN Lounge > Political/War Lounge > Drill, baby, drill,.........

Drill, baby, drill,.........
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OldManMac
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Oct 21, 2008, 10:58 PM
 
and then send the gas and oil to Japan and other countries, while Americans get **** on once again by their own politicians.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/10/105137/798
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Wiskedjak
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Oct 21, 2008, 11:12 PM
 
Wow. That's impressive. What'll be even more impressive is watching the spin to defend this.
     
Timothy Leary's brain
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Oct 22, 2008, 01:29 AM
 
Two weeks before McCain was for offshore drilling he was against it. Then he starts lying and smearing O'bama. Shows some idiots have short memories besides McCain, Onset of dementia or just desperate? McCain should be forced to have a brain scan to see if he has one. Scary.
     
stupendousman
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Oct 22, 2008, 06:32 AM
 
Originally Posted by Timothy Leary's brain View Post
Two weeks before McCain was for offshore drilling he was against it.
Yeah, just like Obama. Really, you guys need to research your smears before you publish them.

No one ever said that everything drilled by America would stay in America. NO ONE. That's not how the markets work. Increased production (actually, even just the threat of increased production) effects price no matter where that increase goes to. Since it became clear we'd drill more, the price has plummeted. The power domestic drilling gives us isn't just in knowing that if we wanted more supply for ourselves, we could get it, but rather the pressure it allows us to use on groups like OPEC who use their monopoly on new supply to help artificially keep prices high. You don't have to look at anything other than the current drop in the price of oil to show that.

Get back to us when you guys show any real understanding of this issue.
     
Sayf-Allah
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Oct 22, 2008, 06:47 AM
 
Speaking of understanding this issue......

You fail at it.

"Learn to swim"
     
stupendousman
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Oct 22, 2008, 06:55 AM
 
Originally Posted by Sayf-Allah View Post
Speaking of understanding this issue......

You fail at it.
     
stumblinmike
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Oct 22, 2008, 07:12 AM
 
Originally Posted by stupendousman View Post
Yeah, just like Obama. Really, you guys need to research your smears before you publish them.

No one ever said that everything drilled by America would stay in America. NO ONE. That's not how the markets work. Increased production (actually, even just the threat of increased production) effects price no matter where that increase goes to. Since it became clear we'd drill more, the price has plummeted. The power domestic drilling gives us isn't just in knowing that if we wanted more supply for ourselves, we could get it, but rather the pressure it allows us to use on groups like OPEC who use their monopoly on new supply to help artificially keep prices high. You don't have to look at anything other than the current drop in the price of oil to show that.

Get back to us when you guys show any real understanding of this issue.
I admire your spinning skills, you'd have a bright future in talk radio, if you chose to do so.
     
stupendousman
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Oct 22, 2008, 07:14 AM
 
Originally Posted by stumblinmike View Post
I admire your spinning skills, you'd have a bright future in talk radio, if you chose to do so.
Your inability to refute my point (or acknowledge the fact that the original linked article was pure spin in the first place) is noted.
     
Sayf-Allah
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Oct 22, 2008, 07:18 AM
 
Originally Posted by stupendousman View Post
Your inability to refute my point (or acknowledge the fact that the original linked article was pure spin in the first place) is noted.
This part:
Increased production (actually, even just the threat of increased production) effects price no matter where that increase goes to. Since it became clear we'd drill more, the price has plummeted.
Shows that you don't even have enough knowledge about this to make it worth spending any time to educate you.

Spending time educating you on this would be a waste of time.

"Learn to swim"
     
Dork.
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Oct 22, 2008, 07:24 AM
 
Originally Posted by stupendousman View Post
No one ever said that everything drilled by America would stay in America. NO ONE. That's not how the markets work. Increased production (actually, even just the threat of increased production) effects price no matter where that increase goes to. Since it became clear we'd drill more, the price has plummeted. The power domestic drilling gives us isn't just in knowing that if we wanted more supply for ourselves, we could get it, but rather the pressure it allows us to use on groups like OPEC who use their monopoly on new supply to help artificially keep prices high. You don't have to look at anything other than the current drop in the price of oil to show that.
.
For once, I agree with you, sort of. Not on drilling in the first place -- I think it won't make nearly as much of am impact that you do. (And proposing that our drilling is the reason that oil has gone down recently is extremely ignorant of the role of currently fluctuation and speculators in the market).

But if we are going to drill, then it doesn't matter whether we use the resources inside the country or export them. The market is worldwide, and any increase in supply will influence prices. (Although, I still contend the influence won't be as great as the other factors I've cited.)
     
stupendousman
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Oct 22, 2008, 07:33 AM
 
Originally Posted by Sayf-Allah View Post
This part:

Shows that you don't even have enough knowledge about this to make it worth spending any time to educate you.

Spending time educating you on this would be a waste of time.
You are making unsupportable claims. Simply quoting someone and saying they don't understand (especially someone who explained how this all would happen before it ended up doing so) isn't a credible refutation. It simply makes you look desperate to change the subject.

It wouldn't be much less credible if you just stuck your tongue out and just gave the thread a raspberry.
     
villalobos
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Oct 22, 2008, 07:34 AM
 
Originally Posted by stupendousman View Post
Since it became clear we'd drill more, the price has plummeted.
Because there hasn't been any worldwide financial crisis/recession fear or anything like that... Ah, the joy of being wrong and proud of it.
     
stupendousman
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Oct 22, 2008, 07:37 AM
 
Originally Posted by Dork. View Post
For once, I agree with you, sort of. Not on drilling in the first place -- I think it won't make nearly as much of am impact that you do. (And proposing that our drilling is the reason that oil has gone down recently is extremely ignorant of the role of currently fluctuation and speculators in the market).
Not understanding the effect increased drilling and an increase in the ability to provide new supply has on speculators in the market is actually a big part of the problem. There hasn't yet been that big of a increase in supply or decrease in demand, yet prices have sunk.
     
Sayf-Allah
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Oct 22, 2008, 07:40 AM
 
Originally Posted by stupendousman View Post
You are making unsupportable claims. Simply quoting someone and saying they don't understand (especially someone who explained how this all would happen before it ended up doing so) isn't a credible refutation. It simply makes you look desperate to change the subject.

It wouldn't be much less credible if you just stuck your tongue out and just gave the thread a raspberry.
Yup, the possibility of at most a few percentage increase in oil production more than 10 years in the future has caused the fall in oil prices......

Has nothing to do with the credit crunch + fear of recession. Absolutely not.

"Learn to swim"
     
Dork.
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Oct 22, 2008, 08:13 AM
 
Originally Posted by stupendousman View Post
Not understanding the effect increased drilling and an increase in the ability to provide new supply has on speculators in the market is actually a big part of the problem. There hasn't yet been that big of a increase in supply or decrease in demand, yet prices have sunk.
Have you noticed that the Dollar is getting stronger? It's down (up?) to less than $1.30 to the euro. That has a lot to do with the recent downturn in gas prices. Wasn't it up above $1.55 at one point this summer?
     
Wiskedjak
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Oct 22, 2008, 08:33 AM
 
Originally Posted by stupendousman View Post
Since it became clear we'd drill more, the price has plummeted.
That's amazing. Other things that have apparently been caused by the American desire to drill more:
- new MacBooks
- Canada re-elected a minority conservative government
- global economic crisis
- my daughter's tooth fell out (thanks for that one ... it was looking to be a bugger to pull)
     
stupendousman
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Oct 22, 2008, 08:33 AM
 
Originally Posted by Sayf-Allah View Post
Yup, the possibility of at most a few percentage increase in oil production more than 10 years in the future has caused the fall in oil prices......
Your analysis is flawed on several accounts.

1. "10 years" is an estimate. Many have said production could be done sooner.

2. Supply/Demand has only changed a few percentage points when oil prices started to plummet (and before any real economic changes had occured previous to the big run-up in price). It's clear that oil prices can drop dramatically with only a few percentage increase/decrease when current prices are more due to speculators than actual supply/demand. Speculators act on psychology and perception. They have no real way to know what cards are in the deck. They have to gamble sometimes based on bets on what cards the players might have in their deck. When you start laying down aces, they are going to react.

3. Psychology of the market plays almost as important part in price as supply/demand and normal economic factors. Just ask Barney Frank. He says that's the situation with our current economy. He says that the fundementals are sound, it's just due to some trouble spots that the psychology of the market is hurting.

Has nothing to do with the credit crunch + fear of recession. Absolutely not.
Fear. You nailed it. Psychology. Not supply/demand. Speculators act on fear, just as OPEC acts on fear. OPEC wants to control price. They can't when they don't have a monopoly over supply. Securing new sources of oil allows us leverage in the psychology of the market, on top of actually increasing supply. It's a win/win scenario. The current market drops just prove it.

There was another thread here where I laid all this out. I explained what needed to happen in order for prices to fall dramatically. Everything I said needed to be done fell into place. Prices started to drop and haven't went back up. When prices started to fall, people insisted it was just a blip and we were really looking at $4.25 gas for some time to come. Just yesterday gas was at $2.65 locally. That shows pretty much proves that any claims about what a small change in supply/demand will do ten years from now is at best a bogus guess when there are a bunch of other factors at work. Otherwise, the current small change to supply/demand would result in relatively stable prices.
     
Big Mac
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Oct 22, 2008, 08:35 AM
 
stupendousman, the only issue I have with your analysis is that oil prices always drop in the winter. Oil was around the same price a year ago as it is today. What will be really telling is what happens next year going into the summer.

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Sayf-Allah
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Oct 22, 2008, 08:35 AM
 
So you really believe that?

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stupendousman
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Oct 22, 2008, 08:39 AM
 
Originally Posted by Wiskedjak View Post
That's amazing. Other things that have apparently been caused by the American desire to drill more:
- new MacBooks
- Canada re-elected a minority conservative government
- global economic crisis
- my daughter's tooth fell out (thanks for that one ... it was looking to be a bugger to pull)
Did you predict that any of these would result in reduced prices beforehand and state why?

Did the price of oil drop almost immediately after any of these things were announced and keep dropping?

Does any of the things you listed effect how other oil producers look at the market?

If you answer no to these questions, you can see why your examples are flawed.
     
stupendousman
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Oct 22, 2008, 08:58 AM
 
Originally Posted by Big Mac View Post
stupendousman, the only issue I have with your analysis is that oil prices always drop in the winter. Oil was around the same price a year ago as it is today. What will be really telling is what happens next year going into the summer.
Sort of true. That often times is the case, but less with the price of oil and more the price of gas. Retailers know that seasonal demand will be up more during the summer and that raising prices then will not hurt demand like it might during winter months.

Actually, oil prices at this same time last year were higher and the price kept going up even in the winter months.



If you look at the chart, you can see that shortly after July 12th of this year the market dropped and pretty much never looked back (besides a blip due to bad weather). Did something happen to supply or demand around that time? Did something happen to PERCEIVED supply/demand? Here's an article dated July 15th, 2008

Bush drops moratorium on offshore drilling
     
stupendousman
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Oct 22, 2008, 09:00 AM
 
Originally Posted by Sayf-Allah View Post
So you really believe that?
Look at the chart.

Can you find one that also shows true supply/demand? I'd love to see it.
     
Dork.
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Oct 22, 2008, 09:04 AM
 
Originally Posted by stupendousman View Post




Note how crude oil prices nicely track the Euro-to-Dollar Exchange Rate? (Well, it's not direct, I think the crude oil increases lag the currency fluctuations, but it's real close...)
     
Wiskedjak
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Oct 22, 2008, 10:19 AM
 
Originally Posted by stupendousman View Post
Did you predict that any of these would result in reduced prices beforehand and state why?

Did the price of oil drop almost immediately after any of these things were announced and keep dropping?

Does any of the things you listed effect how other oil producers look at the market?

If you answer no to these questions, you can see why your examples are flawed.
If you'd read, rather than jerk your knee, you'd see that I didn't suggest that *any* of those events would result in reduced prices. I said that they apparently were also caused by talk of increase oil extraction in the US since they happened around the same time as the recent drop in oil prices.

Put another way, they are just as likely to be caused by *talk* of increased oil extraction in the US as a drop in oil prices. Put *another* way, as with the recent drop in oil prices, there are many far more likely causes.

Put **another** way, the impending recession is a far more likely explanation for the current drop in oil prices. Prior to the recession, the lack of damage from the hurricane season is a a far more likely explanation for the pre-financial-crisis drop in oil prices, especially considering that the *rise* in oil prices at the beginning of the hurricane season was blamed on the possibility for hurricane damage to oil extraction and production infrastructure.
     
stupendousman
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Oct 22, 2008, 11:04 AM
 
Originally Posted by Wiskedjak View Post
If you'd read, rather than jerk your knee, you'd see that I didn't suggest that *any* of those events would result in reduced prices. I said that they apparently were also caused by talk of increase oil extraction in the US since they happened around the same time as the recent drop in oil prices.
It doesn't matter. I understood what you where trying to do. Complaining I got the details wrong concerning your chosen illogical comparison doesn't negate the big picture argument.

Put another way, they are just as likely to be caused by *talk* of increased oil extraction in the US as a drop in oil prices.
I've already explained how that isn't the case. Steve Jobs doesn't decide when to release Macbooks based on what he thinks the supply of oil might be in the future. Speculators on the other hand do.

Put **another** way, the impending recession is a far more likely explanation for the current drop in oil prices.
You'd have a point if at any time the price just stabilized then slowly started to recede, or if there was some big economic hit that was taken when the price started drastically dropping. At the time oil started dropping there was no additional economic indicators which would trigger lower prices. The only thing we know happened at that very time was the very thing I had already stated was the last piece of the puzzle needed to get oil prices to start going down.

Prior to the recession...
Was this before or after the aliens abducted the President?


....the lack of damage from the hurricane season is a a far more likely explanation for the pre-financial-crisis drop in oil prices, especially considering that the *rise* in oil prices at the beginning of the hurricane season was blamed on the possibility for hurricane damage to oil extraction and production infrastructure.
Look at the chart. Hurricane season starts June 1. It ends November 30. The drop started in June about the time the season started, and can't be attributed to anything weather related. You can't find any equivalent rise/fall in 2007 and the only rise post decision to drill was when a hurricane had disrupted supply.

Try again.
     
Chongo
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Nov 12, 2008, 12:39 PM
 
45/47
     
Helmling
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Nov 12, 2008, 12:43 PM
 
Originally Posted by stupendousman View Post
Yeah, just like Obama. Really, you guys need to research your smears before you publish them.

No one ever said that everything drilled by America would stay in America. NO ONE. That's not how the markets work. Increased production (actually, even just the threat of increased production) effects price no matter where that increase goes to. Since it became clear we'd drill more, the price has plummeted. The power domestic drilling gives us isn't just in knowing that if we wanted more supply for ourselves, we could get it, but rather the pressure it allows us to use on groups like OPEC who use their monopoly on new supply to help artificially keep prices high. You don't have to look at anything other than the current drop in the price of oil to show that.

Get back to us when you guys show any real understanding of this issue.
Obama said he was willing to compromise on offshore drilling.

That's called: DEMOCRACY.

I do disagree with him, though. Here's why in the simplest terms:

Oil is finite; it will someday run-out.
Oil use is linked to pollution and climate change.
Clean alternatives exist.
Clean alternatives need funding for development.

So why spend one dollar on destructive, wasteful and politically contentious oil exploration when we can invest in the technologies that would put us at the forefront on an inevitable clean energy market?
     
Shaddim
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Nov 12, 2008, 10:24 PM
 
There's no such thing as "clean energy", and any process can be copied.
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vmarks
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Nov 12, 2008, 11:04 PM
 
Originally Posted by Helmling View Post
So why spend one dollar on destructive, wasteful and politically contentious oil exploration when we can invest in the technologies that would put us at the forefront on an inevitable clean energy market?
Can we spend on productive, thrifty, beneficial energy exploration?
     
nonhuman
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Nov 12, 2008, 11:10 PM
 
Originally Posted by Shaddim View Post
There's no such thing as "clean energy", and any process can be copied.
Photosynthesis is a fairly clean form of energy production. The only harmful byproduct of it is pure oxygen, the deleterious effects of which are the reason plant matter is so rich in anti-oxidants. Also, we're having a hell of a time copying it.
     
subego
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Nov 12, 2008, 11:30 PM
 
Originally Posted by Shaddim View Post
There's no such thing as "clean energy", and any process can be copied.

Fusion isn't clean?
     
hyteckit
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Nov 13, 2008, 01:49 AM
 
My calculator uses a solar cell that converts solar energy into electric energy.

I also have a hand cranked flashlight the converts kinetic energy into potential energy.

Are those considered "clean energy"?
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Nov 13, 2008, 12:29 PM
 
Geothermal and Hydro are clean as well.
45/47
     
Chongo
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Nov 13, 2008, 12:31 PM
 
Originally Posted by Helmling View Post
Obama said he was willing to compromise on offshore drilling.
He said he would "consider"new drilling, big difference.
45/47
     
Chongo
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Nov 13, 2008, 12:31 PM
 
Originally Posted by Helmling View Post
Obama said he was willing to compromise on offshore drilling.
He said he would "consider" new drilling, big difference.
45/47
     
nonhuman
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Nov 13, 2008, 12:52 PM
 
Originally Posted by Chongo View Post
Geothermal and Hydro are clean as well.
Well geothermal has a tendency to release large quantities of CO2 into the atmosphere (which some would consider a pollutant, or at least bad), but modern geothermal plants are starting to capture that CO2 and put it back into the ground where it came from (along with the wastewater from the process that serves to maintain the subterranean pressure that makes geothermal power possible).

Hydro is clean, but still has a massive impact on the environment.
     
vmarks
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Nov 13, 2008, 01:56 PM
 
Originally Posted by hyteckit View Post
My calculator uses a solar cell that converts solar energy into electric energy.

I also have a hand cranked flashlight the converts kinetic energy into potential energy.

Are those considered "clean energy"?
I'm not sure you're considering the full cost of your kinetic energy hand-crank.

You wind that sucker up for 30 minutes or so, and work up a good sweat. Now you're thirsty, so you imbibe a beverage, leaving an empty container that has to be disposed of. You're also sweaty, and need a nice hot, shower. That shower has to be heated somehow, the water has to be pressurized somehow... If you forego the shower, you're still sweaty and smelly, which don't really jibe with 'clean' energy.



ok, I'm just having fun here.
     
Helmling
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Nov 13, 2008, 04:47 PM
 
Originally Posted by vmarks View Post
Can we spend on productive, thrifty, beneficial energy exploration?
Sure, but let's be realistic about the costs. What does this "thrifty" energy cost us in terms of our own health? What does it cost us in terms of natural resources? What does it mean for our national security?

When we look big picture, the costs of developing green energy now are completely justified. We've seen how the short sightedness of continued dependence on oil has panned out since the gas crisis of the 70's. Unless you're advocating developing a nationalized oil company that will be 100% domestic, then this new drilling is just part of the global oil industry--and that industry's fate is inexorably linked with the politics of some very unfriendly territory.

Going green just makes sense on so many levels.
     
Helmling
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Nov 13, 2008, 04:48 PM
 
Originally Posted by Chongo View Post
He said he would "consider"new drilling, big difference.
That sounds like compromise to me.

He didn't say, for example, you're either with us or against us on drilling.
     
Helmling
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Nov 13, 2008, 04:50 PM
 
Originally Posted by hyteckit View Post
My calculator uses a solar cell that converts solar energy into electric energy.

I also have a hand cranked flashlight the converts kinetic energy into potential energy.

Are those considered "clean energy"?
Sure...oh and there was a new technology announced yesterday that could help solar power out. A nano-coating that allows solar cells to fight reflection and absorb over 96% of the sunlight that strikes them.

Imagine how many more such breakthroughs could be possible if we were dedicating more resources to the problem. Everyone who says the technology is too expensive and too far out is just showing a very un-American skepticism about the future.
     
vmarks
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Nov 13, 2008, 10:02 PM
 
Originally Posted by Helmling View Post
Imagine how many more such breakthroughs could be possible if we were dedicating more resources to the problem.

No matter how many women you put on the problem, you can still only birth babies in 9 months from start to finish.

You can't have 9 women collectively birth a child in one month. It just doesn't work like that.

That said,
What do you propose we use for energy in the meantime while we're chasing the pipe-dreams of nanotubes and other things that aren't viable today?
     
Helmling
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Nov 13, 2008, 10:24 PM
 
Originally Posted by vmarks View Post
No matter how many women you put on the problem, you can still only birth babies in 9 months from start to finish.

You can't have 9 women collectively birth a child in one month. It just doesn't work like that.

That said,
What do you propose we use for energy in the meantime while we're chasing the pipe-dreams of nanotubes and other things that aren't viable today?
Your baby-birthing analogy has absolutely no bearing. Money = progress. Man got to the moon inside of ten years because the U.S. dedicated something like 4% of its GDP toward the endeavor. We're not waiting on nanotube pipe dreams. Solar is already highly efficient, absorbing something like 2/3 of the sunlight that strikes the panel. The breakthrough I cited is not necessary to use solar power; it's just icing on the cake. Likewise, we have technology for tidal and wind power generation that is viable now. We could be investing in a hydrogen infrastructure today and create that hydrogen fuel with renewables.

The only thing that's stopping us is stubbornness and an un-American "can't do" attitude.
     
vmarks
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Nov 14, 2008, 12:00 AM
 
It's not an "un-American 'can't do'" attitude - I'm happy if you want to throw YOUR money at solving these problems. But don't throw MY money at it, it's un-American for you to steal from me to do this, and don't decide who can and can't keep oil exploration and supply going while we wait for you to get your show on the road.

See, there's this thing called freedom. It's mine. It's yours. And it's also the people who work for oil companies. And it belongs to the people who benefit from being able to use oil and gasoline products.

The oil companies know that they're in the energy business, not the oil business. At the same time, people who push for these alternative sources immediately wish to make gas and oil more expensive so that alternatives are cheaper by comparison - but gas and oil don't have to be more expensive. If you were willing to support freedom of choice, you'd support working towards alternatives on your dime, while letting those of us who'd like to keep oil flowing drill while we work on your plans.

So, by all means, get your wind, solar, and hydrogen infrastructure in place. Go for it. Without force or restricting the rest of us. That's the American way.
     
Helmling
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Nov 14, 2008, 12:39 AM
 
Originally Posted by vmarks View Post
It's not an "un-American 'can't do'" attitude - I'm happy if you want to throw YOUR money at solving these problems. But don't throw MY money at it, it's un-American for you to steal from me to do this, and don't decide who can and can't keep oil exploration and supply going while we wait for you to get your show on the road.

See, there's this thing called freedom. It's mine. It's yours. And it's also the people who work for oil companies. And it belongs to the people who benefit from being able to use oil and gasoline products.

The oil companies know that they're in the energy business, not the oil business. At the same time, people who push for these alternative sources immediately wish to make gas and oil more expensive so that alternatives are cheaper by comparison - but gas and oil don't have to be more expensive. If you were willing to support freedom of choice, you'd support working towards alternatives on your dime, while letting those of us who'd like to keep oil flowing drill while we work on your plans.

So, by all means, get your wind, solar, and hydrogen infrastructure in place. Go for it. Without force or restricting the rest of us. That's the American way.
I suppose, had you been of taxpaying age at the time, you would've begrudged NASA your dime, too.

Really, do you have no care but for that dime? Do the interests of posterity not move you one iota that you might consider joining with voices of progress to spend that little dime?

Or, might you consider that the oil companies already get a fair number of your dimes? And really, in this time of all times, can you argue with a straight face that market forces will ensure that companies are forward-thinking and responsible? Today, of all days?

Like I said, if you want to do it on the costs, then let's compute all the real costs. Let's track down and enumerate the health costs of the oil industry. All the effects of the pollution both from production and consumption. Then let's be sure to factor in all the tax breaks and subsidies the oil industry receives. Finally, find a way please to compute the cost of our children facing a world unready for the end of oil because we honestly believed oil companies were visionary enough to transform themselves into energy companies without our collective will being brought to bear to urge them to do so.
     
stupendousman
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Nov 14, 2008, 07:52 AM
 
On a related note...

Can anyone find for me the true numbers regarding drop in demand for oil over the past couple of months? I looked, but got lazy when nothing came up quick.

Since we were told time and again that the high price of oil was simply a matter of supply/demand, it would be interesting to see a chart which actually plots true demand and supply with price. I've got a feeling that the numbers aren't going to line up very well.

I predicted back in June that prices would start dropping steadily once the US showed a willingness for more drilling (taking a bite from OPEC and speculators). I was told that I was crazy because 'the experts" said that the sort of changes in supply/demand that would lead to wouldn't really budge prices. I explained how that was BS and how any increase in supply - even a real threat of a future increase would send prices down.

We saw on the chart above when the price started plummeting, and no one could find a catalyst for the plunge other than Bush's rescinding of his executive order on drilling, essentially "throwing down the guantlet" for Congress to do the same in an election year (and as it was assumed, they didn't extend their ban either). Now, 5 months later (and a financial meltdown a month or so ago) prices continue to go down to the point where we are now (at least in my area) below $2 for a gallon of gas. That was deemed an almost impossibility in another thread.

Basically, my point is that the excuse for why we shouldn't drill (that it won't pay off) has been found to be BS. There's really no rational reason IMO to not drill AND invest in alternatives for the future. As smart people have said, we aren't likely going to drill our way out of the problem, or jump to a system only using alternatives. We've got to do both.
     
Helmling
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Nov 14, 2008, 01:53 PM
 
Originally Posted by stupendousman View Post
On a related note...

Can anyone find for me the true numbers regarding drop in demand for oil over the past couple of months? I looked, but got lazy when nothing came up quick.

Since we were told time and again that the high price of oil was simply a matter of supply/demand, it would be interesting to see a chart which actually plots true demand and supply with price. I've got a feeling that the numbers aren't going to line up very well.

I predicted back in June that prices would start dropping steadily once the US showed a willingness for more drilling (taking a bite from OPEC and speculators). I was told that I was crazy because 'the experts" said that the sort of changes in supply/demand that would lead to wouldn't really budge prices. I explained how that was BS and how any increase in supply - even a real threat of a future increase would send prices down.

We saw on the chart above when the price started plummeting, and no one could find a catalyst for the plunge other than Bush's rescinding of his executive order on drilling, essentially "throwing down the guantlet" for Congress to do the same in an election year (and as it was assumed, they didn't extend their ban either). Now, 5 months later (and a financial meltdown a month or so ago) prices continue to go down to the point where we are now (at least in my area) below $2 for a gallon of gas. That was deemed an almost impossibility in another thread.

Basically, my point is that the excuse for why we shouldn't drill (that it won't pay off) has been found to be BS. There's really no rational reason IMO to not drill AND invest in alternatives for the future. As smart people have said, we aren't likely going to drill our way out of the problem, or jump to a system only using alternatives. We've got to do both.
Which is, I imagine, the compromise position the Obama administration is going to be taking. For my part, I still argue that new drilling would only add a few drops in the bucket and would further endanger various aquatic ecosystems and produce who knows how much more toxic pollution in the long run. Oil's just dirty, that's why I say we shouldn't invest one dollar more in its exploitation. Sticking to that line is hardly jumping to alternative energy in one fail swoop, which I agree is impossible. It's simply saying, "We've got all the oil production we need. New energy investment should be in more forward -thinking directions."
     
hyteckit
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Nov 14, 2008, 02:20 PM
 
Demand and supply of oil hasn't change much.

Gas prices didn't drop because "US showed a willingness for more drilling." That's just dumb. How many years would it take to even get any petro after you start drilling.

Gas prices drop because the world economy is tanking.
Bush Tax Cuts == Job Killer
June 2001: 132,047,000 employed
June 2003: 129,839,000 employed
2.21 million jobs were LOST after 2 years of Bush Tax Cuts.
     
stupendousman
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Nov 14, 2008, 03:56 PM
 
Originally Posted by hyteckit View Post
Demand and supply of oil hasn't change much.
I didn't think so.

Gas prices didn't drop because "US showed a willingness for more drilling." That's just dumb. How many years would it take to even get any petro after you start drilling.
You just stated that supply and demand is about the same, yet the price started dropping dramatically around July. Apparently, the price of oil isn't totally dependent on supply/demand. Supply/demand analysis was what the basis of the notion that X amount of new oil would only generate Y (not a very big) change in price. Again, if you can't argue that we can effectively predict the effect of supply/demand on prices, then we can't make such "dumb" claims that increasing supply will have no effect.

Gas prices drop because the world economy is tanking.
The economy was pretty much the same as it has been the past year or so, until the last month after the collapse of the mortgage markets. There was no huge bad world economic news in July to trigger the current downward spiral (and apparently no real significant changes yet in supply/demand), which likely CONTINUES to spiral downward due to current economic news.

In other words, the market reacts to perceived POSSIBLE future supply/demand, and it doesn't take any real movement in that ratio for the markets to react. Bush acted, the market reacted, and it continues it's downward spiral because speculators assume future drop in demand, just as I predicted back in June.

It ain't rocket science - drilling more (or even saying you will) effects perceived future supply, which effects what speculators will do in regards to the oil markets.

It's not "dumb" to point out that which can be readily seen.
     
Dork.
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Nov 14, 2008, 04:11 PM
 
Are we still talking about this?

I see two main reasons why the price of gas has gone down:

- Greatly reduced demand from China. Their consumption went up widely as a result of the Olympics, it was bound to go down afterwards.

- It was more than just the mortgage markets that collapsed, it was nearly the entire lending system. This is just a hunch, but the speculation that was present in the crude oil market in the Spring and Summer was probably heavily leveraged. When credit markets froze, these folks couldn't be leveraged to the same extent and had to reduce their exposure to the market.. Without speculators giving support to prices, they fell.

Both explanations are more plausible then the notion that we scared people off by threatening to drill. I'm sure the OPEC folks quake in their sandals every time an American says "Drill Baby, Drill".
     
Chongo
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Nov 14, 2008, 04:53 PM
 
W lifted lifted the executive order banning offshore oil drilling in July. Oil prices started to drop abut that time. The Congressional ban expired around September.
45/47
     
 
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