[jokell82]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

We know that. What we are saying is that even though HD is getting and has all these HUGE plus' they haven't made a dent in BR in a year.

A year later BR has almost the same price point and features so things aren't going to get better for HD unless a studio defects.

Isn't it just as telling that even though the PS3 has sold millions of consoles they have yet to pull away from HD DVD??? It's essentially the same argument...

[Oversoul]

Originally Posted by jokell82

Guys - the mail in offers for free discs DO NOT count towards the sales numbers.

We know this.

Originally Posted by jokell82 

Isn't it just as telling that even though the PS3 has sold millions of consoles they have yet to pull away from HD DVD??? It's essentially the same argument...

I wouldn't even go as far as to assume every one or even a majority of those millions of PS3 are being used as a Blu-ray player. But you can't deny a sizeable number of people do buy the PS3 to use solely as a Blu-ray player, and even more buy it as a game console can play high def movies.

Originally Posted by ort888 

Do you really think that they aren't getting a cut for these "free" movies? As if Toshiba is just pressing their own copies and throwing them in the box?

Of course I don't think that. The money's got to come from somewhere, and it's likely out of Toshiba's pockets. But the situation you have is that the HD DVD and Blu-ray camps both have movies that come free in the box and both have 5-10 disc free mail-in offers, and after all these free movies are given to the consumer Blu-ray sales still top HD DVD sales. For all the talk of standalone owners are more likely to buy movies, a whole lot of someones out there aren't buying movies.

[hyteckit]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

Are you kidding? For all of 2007 every month had some sort of "Buy a HD-DVD player get 10 free movies". HD-DVD also had more Bogo sales.

Free movies don't count toward HDDVD sales numbers. If it did, the sales numbers would be:

10 movies x 500,000 players sold = 5 million HDDVD movies

How many Bluray movies sold in 2007? I think it's around 3 million.

I've only been following HDDVD and Bluray since Nov. 2007. I've seen only about 3 BOGO sales for HDDVD. Amazon has the best one so fare with under 40 titles. Bestbuy had a BOGO sales for like 10 movies. This week at Bestbuy it's buy 3 get 2 free. Not the greatest.

[ort888]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

We know that. What we are saying is that even though HD is getting and has all these HUGE plus' they haven't made a dent in BR in a year.

A year later BR has almost the same price point and features so things aren't going to get better for HD unless a studio defects.

Well, even with it's disappointing sales, the PS3 sells at least 100,000 a month.

So 100,000 HD DVD players is just going to offset 1 month of PS3 sales.

At any rate... I have one of those $99 HD DVD players, and I just can't motivate myself to buy a bunch of titles.

For one thing, the HD selection is still pretty crappy, and all the movies are too damn expensive anyway.

Also, there is a little voice in the back of my head is telling me that there is a good chance that HD DVD might lose, and I'll get stuck with a bunch of movies in an obsolete format.

That said I still own 5 movies now. (Transformers, Children of Men, Planet Earth, Serenity and Bladerunner)

[goMac]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Sez who?

There were strong rumors that Pixar was involved with iHD and HD-DVD, which would make sense given how much they like interactive content. Google's not being very helpful in this matter though, it's mostly returning really old results from when Steve said that something like managed copy would be needed on HD-DVD to prevent movie piracy.

[hyteckit]

Originally Posted by Oversoul 

I gotta get me some of your grass!

Here's a topic on the Hi Def Digest forums on point to Warner sales ratios: Blu-Ray vs. HD DVD: Warner's 300, The Departed, Planet Earth - High-Def Digest Forums

As for The Departed and 300 first week sales, the win went overwhelmingly to Blu-ray -- and this is before Toshiba decided to include 300 free in the box. On that note, I'm sure Warner is loving the fact that Toshiba is giving away their titles for free! Sure, give away titles for free so that the consumer doesn't have to go out to buy these titles. Good for the consumer, no doubt; not so good for the studios. And note, HD DVD began their buy a HD DVD player, get 5 movies free deals before the Blu-ray camp jumped in to compete. And lastly, HD DVD has their own BOGO and B2G1 free specials from time to time too, and even then fail to win a week against Blu-ray sales.

You are wrong about when 300 was included free in the box. Those sales numbers are for the week ending in Nov. 11. 300 was already included with the HD-A3 before Nov. 11. The HD-A3 was on sale sometime in Oct.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

If Warner does go HD exclusive I am swearing off this whole round of HD disks.
Since the PS3 will always have BR in it there will always be BR movies for sale making the war NEVER end.

I swear if they dare do something as stupid as HD only when BR has been outselling HD for 12 months it will look like nothing more than another payout and consumers will be fed up with all this **** and both formats will slowly die till the next thing comes around.

Warner does not do any development of Bluray discs in house, while they already have a workflow set up for HD-DVD. Financially, going Bluray makes little to no sense for them. They'd have to set up new production lines, new workflow, and spend major bucks on going Bluray. On the other hand, they are in a position where they can make the format war go any way they want. If they go HD-DVD, Bluray sales won't really matter because they'll shift the entire format war in HD-DVD's favor, and HD-DVD sales will rise.

In short, Warner going HD-DVD will dramatically increase sales in favor of HD-DVD, and will save Warner money.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by goMac 

Warner does not do any development of Bluray discs in house, while they already have a workflow set up for HD-DVD. Financially, going Bluray makes little to no sense for them. They'd have to set up new production lines, new workflow, and spend major bucks on going Bluray. On the other hand, they are in a position where they can make the format war go any way they want. If they go HD-DVD, Bluray sales won't really matter because they'll shift the entire format war in HD-DVD's favor, and HD-DVD sales will rise.

In short, Warner going HD-DVD will dramatically increase sales in favor of HD-DVD, and will save Warner money.

Oh dear lord

[Oversoul]

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

You are wrong about when 300 was included free in the box. Those sales numbers are for the week ending in Nov. 11. 300 was already included with the HD-A3 before Nov. 11. The HD-A3 was on sale sometime in Oct.

300 was not included as a Toshiba in-box upon its release on Aug. 1, 2007, or for a while after that. And first week sales were overwhelmingly Blu by a matter of 2:1.

See:
'300' Breaks Blu-ray, HD DVD Sales Records | High-Def Digest

A week after its initial release, '300' has eclipsed all previous releases to become the fastest and highest selling high-def disc yet. . . . According to Warner Home Video, more than 250,000 copies of the CGI epic have been sold to consumers on Blu-ray and HD DVD.

and then:

'300' Blu-ray Outsells HD DVD by 2 to 1 | High-Def Digest

[T]he 65:35 ratio roughly matches the overall market share for both formats, HD DVD supporters had hoped that a series of supplemental features exclusive to the HD DVD edition of '300' might help the format pull out from under its next-gen rival.

Guess it didn't so much so that Toshiba had to throw it in their boxes for free.

[hyteckit]

Originally Posted by Oversoul 

300 was not included as a Toshiba in-box upon its release on Aug. 1, 2007, or for a while after that. And first week sales were overwhelmingly Blu by a matter of 2:1.

See:
'300' Breaks Blu-ray, HD DVD Sales Records | High-Def Digest



and then:

'300' Blu-ray Outsells HD DVD by 2 to 1 | High-Def Digest

[T]he 65:35 ratio roughly matches the overall market share for both formats, HD DVD supporters had hoped that a series of supplemental features exclusive to the HD DVD edition of '300' might help the format pull out from under its next-gen rival.[/i]

Guess it didn't so much so that Toshiba had to throw it in their boxes for free.

Again, I haven't been following the market until Nov. 2007. You've provided me with the link to Nov. 11 numbers, so my response was based on that.

Besides, the number of HDDVD players has doubled since Aug. 2007.

[Oversoul]

Originally Posted by goMac 

In short, Warner going HD-DVD will dramatically increase sales in favor of HD-DVD, and will save Warner money.

You know, I'd like to see an exact breakdown of how much cheaper it is to produce and press HD DVD vs. Blu-ray. HD DVD supporters always cite lower costs of production but all the numbers I've seen seem to show that the savings are mere pennies per disc.

If Warner were to go HD DVD, they'd cut themselves off from over half their high def paying customers. I still think from a financial standpoint, Warner will remain neutral (as it commands something like 30% of the HD market by catering to both HD DVD and Blu-ray) or go Blu (which arguably produces more Warner sales week after week).

If Warner were to go HD DVD, from a long-term view, it would only produce a continued stalemate and probably force (1) overall sales to go 1:1, (2) many people going purple just to get the titles they want, and/or (3) jaded and confused consumers who will never drop down upwards of $500 for two different formats. You'll have Blu-exclusives with Sony, Fox, Disney, MGM and Lionsgate and HD DVD-exclusives with Paramount/Dreamworks, Universal, and hypothetically Warner. Unless CE companies begin producing affordable dual-format players, HDM will never get off the ground (especially true if the popular notion that consumers are waiting for a winner to emerge is correct).

That all said, it is about money, and I've read in recent months that both camps have been trying to sway Warner to go exclusive. I wouldn't be surprised if Sony or Toshiba offered an incentive payment to Warner for exclusivity.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

Besides, the number of HDDVD players has doubled since Aug. 2007.

Ok even better. So if the player sales are so high why the low attachment rate? Movie selection perhaps?

Warner might want to think about that before they go for the "selling you razors" method.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by Oversoul 

You know, I'd like to see an exact breakdown of how much cheaper it is to produce and press HD DVD vs. Blu-ray. HD DVD supporters always cite lower costs of production but all the numbers I've seen seem to show that the savings are mere pennies per disc.

The last numbers I saw a month ago showed it costs $0.50 more to make a BR. That is peanuts considering HD doesn't hold as much and might come with a second disk anyway.

Not to mention studio's often make it a multi-disk set just to sell more and they don't think twice about dropping $1.00 or more for that with increased packaging and disk costs so I think they will survive paying fifty cents more for a BR disk.

If that is the last leg HD supporters are standing on it is pathetic.

[ort888]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

Ok even better. So if the player sales are so high why the low attachment rate? Movie selection perhaps?

Warner might want to think about that before they go for the "selling you razors" method.

I think it's simply that the PS3 and standalone Blu-ray players are selling enough to offset any gains that HD DVD can make.

HD DVD players have doubled... and Blu-ray players probably have too.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by Oversoul 

I wouldn't be surprised if Sony or Toshiba offered an incentive payment to Warner for exclusivity.

Are you kidding. Both sides have been knocking down their doors for a while with cash in hand. Lets hope they just don't pull a Paramount those whores.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by Oversoul 

You know, I'd like to see an exact breakdown of how much cheaper it is to produce and press HD DVD vs. Blu-ray. HD DVD supporters always cite lower costs of production but all the numbers I've seen seem to show that the savings are mere pennies per disc.

I'm not talking about disc prices. I'm talking about a mastering workflow.

Originally Posted by Oversoul 

If Warner were to go HD DVD, they'd cut themselves off from over half their high def paying customers. I still think from a financial standpoint, Warner will remain neutral (as it commands something like 30% of the HD market by catering to both HD DVD and Blu-ray) or go Blu (which arguably produces more Warner sales week after week).

I'm not sure you understand. Warner is in a position to decide the war. If they go HD-DVD, people will buy HD-DVD, and Warner will have an audience to sell to. If they go Bluray, people will buy Bluray, and they will have an audience to sell to. I think the sales figures are important only so far as making sure HD-DVD is a plausible opponent to Bluray.

Originally Posted by Oversoul 

If Warner were to go HD DVD, from a long-term view, it would only produce a continued stalemate and probably force (1) overall sales to go 1:1, (2) many people going purple just to get the titles they want, and/or (3) jaded and confused consumers who will never drop down upwards of $500 for two different formats. You'll have Blu-exclusives with Sony, Fox, Disney, MGM and Lionsgate and HD DVD-exclusives with Paramount/Dreamworks, Universal, and hypothetically Warner. Unless CE companies begin producing affordable dual-format players, HDM will never get off the ground (especially true if the popular notion that consumers are waiting for a winner to emerge is correct).

It certainly wouldn't make for a quick resolution either way they go, but it would certainly have a certain effect on the Bluray camp. Disney would be pretty quick to go neutral, further weakening the Bluray camp.

Originally Posted by Oversoul 

That all said, it is about money, and I've read in recent months that both camps have been trying to sway Warner to go exclusive. I wouldn't be surprised if Sony or Toshiba offered an incentive payment to Warner for exclusivity.

And again, if Warner goes Bluray they have to redo their entire workflow, which is going to cost some serious bucks. If they stay HD-DVD they already have their HD-DVD mastering workflow in place, and have to pay nothing.

[hyteckit]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

Ok even better. So if the player sales are so high why the low attachment rate? Movie selection perhaps?

Warner might want to think about that before they go for the "selling you razors" method.

Low attachment rate?

Say there are 3 million Bluray players and 750,000 HDDVD players.

Bluray is outselling HDDVD at a ratio of 1.56:1 for the 2007 year.

So if there are 3 million bluray movies sold, there are roughly 2 million HDDVD movies sold.

Attachment rate:

Bluray = 1
HDDVD = 2.67

Attachment rate for HDDVD is 2.67 higher, averaging 2.67 movies per player while Bluray averages 1 movie per player.

[Oversoul]

Originally Posted by goMac 

I'm not sure you understand. Warner is in a position to decide the war. If they go HD-DVD, people will buy HD-DVD, and Warner will have an audience to sell to. If they go Bluray, people will buy Bluray, and they will have an audience to sell to. I think the sales figures are important only so far as making sure HD-DVD is a plausible opponent to Bluray.
...
It certainly wouldn't make for a quick resolution either way they go, but it would certainly have a certain effect on the Bluray camp. Disney would be pretty quick to go neutral, further weakening the Bluray camp.

I understand Warner is in an enviable position, but I don't agree with you entirely on Warner's ability to decide the war.

If Warner goes Blu-ray exclusive, it will effectively end the war because something like 70% of all titles will be Blu-exclusive and Paramount's sweet deal with Toshiba/Microsoft will eventually end.

On the other hand, if Warner goes HD DVD exclusive, the war will drag with both camps holding roughly the same number of titles and hits. Thus, like I said before, Warner going red will drag this war on for another year or more and probably force (1) overall sales to go 1:1, (2) many people going purple because of the exclusivity of titles, and/or (3) jaded and confused J6Ps. In this hypothetical, Sony and Fox will hold out til the bitter end and Disney may or may not go neutral (and even if it does, it may take a while, thereby dragging the war further on).

[goMac]

Originally Posted by Oversoul 

I understand Warner is in an enviable position, but I don't agree with you entirely on Warner's ability to decide the war.

If Warner goes Blu-ray exclusive, it will effectively end the war because something like 70% of all titles will be Blu-exclusive and Paramount's sweet deal with Toshiba/Microsoft will eventually end.

Agreed, but I don't think Warner will go Bluray exclusive for the reasons I've given.

Originally Posted by Oversoul 

On the other hand, if Warner goes HD DVD exclusive, the war will drag with both camps holding roughly the same number of titles and hits. Thus, like I said before, Warner going red will drag this war on for another year or more and probably force (1) overall sales to go 1:1, (2) many people going purple because of the exclusivity of titles, and/or (3) jaded and confused J6Ps. In this hypothetical, Sony and Fox will hold out til the bitter end and Disney may or may not go neutral (and even if it does, it may take a while, thereby dragging the war further on).

I don't think so. I'd expect a very quick reaction from Disney, probably in the second half of next year. Warner's adoption of HD-DVD would certainly swing overall sales in the direction of HD-DVD. Remember, not only is the HD-DVD camp gaining titles, but the Bluray camp is losing titles.

Finally, Warner's adoption of HD-DVD would heavily strengthen consumer confidence in HD-DVD and lead many more people to buy HD-DVD players, and it would certainly hurt consumer confidence in Bluray.

I could see Fox going neutral towards the end, but you're right about Sony. Their loss though. People would just continue buying their movies on DVD while Sony refused to play ball. Eventually Sony would have to go neutral, but I never see them stopping production of Bluray movies.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by goMac 

I'm not talking about disc prices. I'm talking about a mastering workflow.

Indeed, Blu-ray does indeed cost more to manufacture, but that's not the main issue here, early on in the war.

It costs the studios roughly twice as much to author on both formats. And it's been said before by insiders that a studio needs to sell about 50000 copies or so to break even, if they put any work at all into the disc.

Thus, even if were to halve that and say only 25000 copies were needed to break even, at this time there are a lot of discs out there that are losing money for the studios.

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

We know that. What we are saying is that even though HD is getting and has all these HUGE plus' they haven't made a dent in BR in a year.

A year later BR has almost the same price point and features so things aren't going to get better for HD unless a studio defects.

I guess what you're missing is that despite the increased sales of the PS3 after the price drop, the sales ratio stayed the same. And in December, it was the highest software sales for BOTH formats.

Sony's argument is that uber-good PS3 sales would win the war for them. That hasn't happened even with all those BOGO sales on the Blu-ray side. Toshiba's argument is that better HD DVD standalone players would win the war for them. That hasn't happened either. The stalemate continues.

Originally Posted by goMac 

There were strong rumors that Pixar was involved with iHD and HD-DVD, which would make sense given how much they like interactive content. Google's not being very helpful in this matter though, it's mostly returning really old results from when Steve said that something like managed copy would be needed on HD-DVD to prevent movie piracy.

Strong rumours from whom?

Microsoft employees I've conversed with said Disney was involved with iHD, but mentioned nothing about Pixar. I wouldn't be surprised if Pixar were involved, but I hadn't heard that anywhere.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Eug 

I guess what you're missing is that despite the increased sales of the PS3 after the price drop, the sales ratio stayed the same. And in December, it was the highest software sales for BOTH formats.

Sony's argument is that uber-good PS3 sales would win the war for them. That hasn't happened even with all those BOGO sales on the Blu-ray side. Toshiba's argument is that better HD DVD standalone players would win the war for them. That hasn't happened either. The stalemate continues.

Speaking of sales ratios...

61:39 BD:HD for the third week in a row.

Top 5:
The Kingdom
The Bourne Ultimatum
POTC 3
Simpsons Movie
Rush Hour 3

Top 10 since inception:
300 Blu Ray
Transformers
POTC 3
Casino Royale
Planet Earth HD DVD
The Bourne Ultimatum
300 HD DVD
Spiderman 3
Planet Earth BD
Ratatouille

Notables for the week:

Volume Down from previous 2 weeks
13 of the Top 20 are BD titles.
PE on BD outsold the HD DVD 56:44, but with very low numbers overall.
There are now 9 titles over the 6 figure mark. 5-BD and 4-HD DVD.

[hyteckit]

Also, Sony loses tons of money of the PS3. For every PS3 sale, Sony loses $200 to $300. Sony's quarterly lost on the PS3 is over $600 million. The attachment rate for both Bluray movies and PS3 games are low for the PS3. This is not good news.

[ort888]

Originally Posted by Oversoul 

300 was not included as a Toshiba in-box upon its release on Aug. 1, 2007, or for a while after that. And first week sales were overwhelmingly Blu by a matter of 2:1.

See:
'300' Breaks Blu-ray, HD DVD Sales Records | High-Def Digest



and then:

'300' Blu-ray Outsells HD DVD by 2 to 1 | High-Def Digest



Guess it didn't so much so that Toshiba had to throw it in their boxes for free.

300 also costs $10 more on HD DVD since it's a combo disc. I'm sure that has a big effect on sales as well.

If Toshiba was smart they would start making every disc a combo and also get the cost down to the normal amount.

Seriously, is the extra $10 bucks going to manufacturing costs or a double license on the movie? What the hell are we really paying for?

[goMac]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Indeed, Blu-ray does indeed cost more to manufacture, but that's not the main issue here, early on in the war.

It costs the studios roughly twice as much to author on both formats. And it's been said before by insiders that a studio needs to sell about 50000 copies or so to break even, if they put any work at all into the disc.

Thus, even if were to halve that and say only 25000 copies were needed to break even, at this time there are a lot of discs out there that are losing money for the studios.

What I'm talking about, and what you may be talking about, is the cost to the studio to author a disc. Warner does their HD-DVD's in house. That means Warner has employees that do all the iHD coding, has software and equipment to help master HD-DVD discs, and probably has some sort of HD-DVD quality assurance team. Bluray versions are not done in house.

If Warner were to go Bluray, they'd have to spend a significant amount of time and money redoing their workflow. Their HDi people would have to be retrained in working with Bluray's Java API, a significant amount of development software would probably have to be changed out, and the Q&A process would have to be changed. While a nice payout from the Bluray camp could probably cover these expenses and leave quite a bit of extra money for Warner, Warner would stand to make more money from taking a payout from the HD-DVD camp and not having to change out their whole workflow.

Plus, Warner's Bluray discs would probably take a hit in quality while their internal teams figure out Bluray. You would see glitchy releases over the first few months of Bluray exclusivity as they work on hammering out their Bluray workflow.

Originally Posted by Eug 

Strong rumours from whom?

Microsoft employees I've conversed with said Disney was involved with iHD, but mentioned nothing about Pixar. I wouldn't be surprised if Pixar were involved, but I hadn't heard that anywhere.

Honestly, I'm trying to pin it down. I'm finding reports referencing other sources that I can't seem to track down. And Steve Jobs' comment on HD-DVD needing managed copy is kind of masking any relevant results I can get from Google.

[TETENAL]

Why would Warner have to switch to an in-house workflow should they go BluRay exclusive?

[goMac]

Originally Posted by TETENAL 

Why would Warner have to switch to an in-house workflow should they go BluRay exclusive?

You really think they'd continue producing Bluray discs with an outside company? Seems more expensive to me in the long run.

[Eug]

I'm told Blu-ray authoring is not that much more complicated than HD DVD once you learn it... until you start dealing with BD-Java.

The biggest authoring company in Canada sends out all of its BD-J coding to 3rd parties, because it's too complicated for mere compressionists. They do their HDi stuff and the rest of the BD and HD stuff in-house.

[icruise]

Originally Posted by goMac 

You really think they'd continue producing Bluray discs with an outside company? Seems more expensive to me in the long run.

Maybe not, but I think they would continue using the outside company until their people got up to speed.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by Eug 

I'm told Blu-ray authoring is not that much more complicated than HD DVD once you learn it... until you start dealing with BD-Java.

The biggest authoring company in Canada sends out all of its BD-J coding to 3rd parties, because it's too complicated for mere compressionists. They do their HDi stuff and the rest of the BD and HD stuff in-house.

The Java language itself isn't terrible... it's just... the overhead of the Java virtual machine is quite large. And despite what benchmarks claim, whenever I've used Java it's been noticeably slower. The Java API itself is a spiderweb of functions that are often redundant and sometimes outright unclear as to what their purpose is. The documentation itself is a complete mess, nothing like Apple's or Microsoft's clear documentation.

Honestly, and I say this knowing full well that this may not be the course Apple decides on, HDi makes a lot more sense for Apple than BD-J does. Steve Jobs has publicly spoken out against Java, and Apple's support overall of Java is waning. Meantime, Apple already has their JavaScriptCore library ready as part of Safari/WebKit, which could give them a very nice place to start on HDi support. Apple has been pushing JavaScript very heavily of late, especially with the whole web SDK thing. I find it surprising that they aren't more heavily favoring HDi.

[exca1ibur]

By outsourcing volume, I'm sure they get a price break like any other volume order. No one knows what their outsourcing cost is vs in house to say if its good or bad. Not to mention the need to not have anyone employed to deal with it they can just worry about encoding the films and passing them on. It could be more productive as they can devote more time to getting films out there and not have to worry about menus at all. Lots of variables out there and costs we don't know about to play aim chair CEO.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by exca1ibur 

By outsourcing volume, I'm sure they get a price break like any other volume order. No one knows what their outsourcing cost is vs in house to say if its good or bad. Not to mention the need to not have anyone employed to deal with it they can just worry about encoding the films and passing them on. It could be more productive as they can devote more time to getting films out there and not have to worry about menus at all. Lots of variables out there and costs we don't know about to play aim chair CEO.

One would assume that the place they outsource to is charging them enough to cover the costs of producing the Bluray, plus extra. Definitely more than what it would cost Warner to produce in house. Otherwise there would be no money to be made by doing business with Warner.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by goMac 

The Java language itself isn't terrible... it's just... the overhead of the Java virtual machine is quite large. And despite what benchmarks claim, whenever I've used Java it's been noticeably slower. The Java API itself is a spiderweb of functions that are often redundant and sometimes outright unclear as to what their purpose is. The documentation itself is a complete mess, nothing like Apple's or Microsoft's clear documentation.

It kinda reminds me of what web designers tell me. They outsource all Java code. Java is just too complicated to learn from the ground up. Sure, it's not too hard for someone who began life as a computer engineer, but web designers aren't computer engineers. analogueSPRINKLES, would you agree with this?

The same goes for Blu-ray authoring. Compressionists are not Java jockeys, and most never will be. However, many can wrap their heads around HDi, because it's supposedly much, much simpler to grasp.

Correct me if I'm wrong, and I'm not a programmer (or a web designer, or a movie disc author) but in a way I think it could be argued in-house authoring of complex HD DVD vs. complex Blu-ray is sort of like programming in Dashcode vs. Xcode respectively.

[Oversoul]

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

Also, Sony loses tons of money of the PS3. For every PS3 sale, Sony loses $200 to $300. Sony's quarterly lost on the PS3 is over $600 million. The attachment rate for both Bluray movies and PS3 games are low for the PS3. This is not good news.

This isn't anything new -- for Sony or for the game console industry in general. Microsoft loses, or did lose money on every XBox 360 sold (see here). They take the hit to grow market share. But keep in mind that game consoles have a life expectancy of five to nearly ten years and during this long product life period costs do go down and companies do see profitability on per console sales as component prices go down (e.g., Sony is still selling the PS2 to healthy profits). Furthermore, game consoles manufacturers make up their losses through licensing fees. The same can't be said about CE manufacturers of HDM players. Not to mention someone must have taken a big loss for all those $99 Toshiba A2s sold, which had an original MSRP of $499.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by Eug 

They outsource all Java code. They're fine with using established Javascript applets and such, but Java is just too complicated. Sure, it's not too hard for someone who began life as a computer engineer, but web designers aren't computer engineers.

I spent a lot of time doing Java as when I took the AP Computer Science exam they decided to do it in Java, and once I was in school all the first and second year Computer Science classes were in Java. I don't think it's a hard language... It's just something that my classmates and I all agreed we generally didn't want to spend much time in. I think the term we came up with was "bass ackwards" for how we felt about Java.

My opinion on Java is that it's a leftover from the late nineties when everyone thought they could solve the problem of computer interoperability by running all your programs in an emulator.

Originally Posted by Eug 

The same goes for Blu-ray authoring. Compressionists are not Java jockeys, and most never will be. However, many can wrap their heads around HDi, because it's supposedly much, much simpler to grasp.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but in a way I think of it like programming in Dashcode vs. Xcode.

The specific issue with your comparison is that Cocoa is generally a pretty clean language, so I'm not sure Cocoa is that much harder than JavaScript. I do mostly Cocoa, some JavaScript, and I've never had much issue going back and forth between them. Cocoa these days can even do JavaScript stuff via the Cocoa/JavaScript bridge.

I'm not sure whether or not JavaScript would be easy for multimedia people to pick up though. There is still a learning curve, but at least instead of looking for CS people you can lower the bar and find some web/AJAX experts to do your coding for you. On the other hand, multimedia people might already be familiar with similar languages like ActionScript.

[hyteckit]

Originally Posted by Oversoul 

This isn't anything new -- for Sony or for the game console industry in general. Microsoft loses, or did lose money on every XBox 360 sold (see here). They take the hit to grow market share. But keep in mind that game consoles have a life expectancy of five to nearly ten years and during this long product life period costs do go down and companies do see profitability on per console sales as component prices go down (e.g., Sony is still selling the PS2 to healthy profits). Furthermore, game consoles manufacturers make up their losses through licensing fees. The same can't be said about CE manufacturers of HDM players. Not to mention someone must have taken a big loss for all those $99 Toshiba A2s sold, which had an original MSRP of $499.

Yes, the PS3 is a loss leader just as the xbox in the hopes that it'll recover the cost from software sales. However, the attachment rate for both Bluray movies and PS3 games for the PS3 is horrible. The attachment rate has to be much much higher to recover the amount lost in each sale of the PS3.

MSRP says nothing about the cost of making the player. The new HD-A3 has the MSRP of $299, but regularly sells for $199. I don't even think Toshiba is losing money on it at that price. Xbox HDDVD drive sells for $129 now I think. Chinese HDDVD players are selling from $199.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by goMac 

I spent a lot of time doing Java as when I took the AP Computer Science exam they decided to do it in Java, and once I was in school all the first and second year Computer Science classes were in Java. I don't think it's a hard language... It's just something that my classmates and I all agreed we generally didn't want to spend much time in. I think the term we came up with was "bass ackwards" for how we felt about Java.

My opinion on Java is that it's a leftover from the late nineties when everyone thought they could solve the problem of computer interoperability by running all your programs in an emulator.

The specific issue with your comparison is that Cocoa is generally a pretty clean language, so I'm not sure Cocoa is that much harder than JavaScript. I do mostly Cocoa, some JavaScript, and I've never had much issue going back and forth between them. Cocoa these days can even do JavaScript stuff via the Cocoa/JavaScript bridge.

I'm not sure whether or not JavaScript would be easy for multimedia people to pick up though. There is still a learning curve, but at least instead of looking for CS people you can lower the bar and find some web/AJAX experts to do your coding for you. On the other hand, multimedia people might already be familiar with similar languages like ActionScript.

Can you believe that I took only Pascal (and a fake base 10 assembly) in my Comp Sci elective in university?

[goMac]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Can you believe that I had to take Pascal when I took my Comp Sci elective in university?

Would it be appropriate to ask when that was?

I have friends who still have to learn COBOL for school, so I still feel somewhat fortunate Java was my school's language of choice.

[Eug]

Let's just say I still had an Apple ][+ clone as my primary computer at the time.

Oh and I was super happy to have taken Pascal... cuz other people had to take COBOL.

"The use of COBOL cripples the mind; its teaching should, therefore, be regarded as a criminal offence." - Edsger W. Dijkstra

[Oversoul]

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

MSRP says nothing about the cost of making the player. The new HD-A3 has the MSRP of $299, but regularly sells for $199. I don't even think Toshiba is losing money on it at that price. Xbox HDDVD drive sells for $129 now I think. Chinese HDDVD players are selling from $199.

Granted MSRP says nothing about the cost of making the player, but I mentioned the great disparity between the $499 original MSRP and $99 fire sale price to point out just how much of a loss in potential profit for each A2 unit sold. Each A2 unit sold at that fire sale price also qualified for the 5 free HD DVDs by mail. As we pointed out earlier, do you think these HD DVDs are really free? Someone has to pay for it. At $99 per player, after parts, labor and other manufacturing costs, overall marketing, and supplying free HD DVDs by mail, how much do you think is lost on each of those units?

[exca1ibur]

Originally Posted by goMac 

One would assume that the place they outsource to is charging them enough to cover the costs of producing the Bluray, plus extra. Definitely more than what it would cost Warner to produce in house. Otherwise there would be no money to be made by doing business with Warner.

Volume brings down production costs plus if you factor in the man hours and employees and equipment not needed and the gap gets a little smaller. We have no idea how much their costs are, nor how its being routed to actually say. There is no telling what their internal numbers are, much less what their deals are with their present production company.

[hyteckit]

Couldn't resist going back to Apple and the Hidef support.

Apple - Final Cut Studio 2 - DVD Studio Pro 4

For commercial replication, choose one of the traditional red laser formats or double the capacity on your HD DVD disc by using a blue laser format.

Notice there is mention of HD DVD but not Bluray. But I guess HD DVD could just mean HiDef.

[hyteckit]

Originally Posted by Oversoul 

Granted MSRP says nothing about the cost of making the player, but I mentioned the great disparity between the $499 original MSRP and $99 fire sale price to point out just how much of a loss in potential profit for each A2 unit sold. Each A2 unit sold at that fire sale price also qualified for the 5 free HD DVDs by mail. As we pointed out earlier, do you think these HD DVDs are really free? Someone has to pay for it. At $99 per player, after parts, labor and other manufacturing costs, overall marketing, and supplying free HD DVDs by mail, how much do you think is lost on each of those units?

My guess it would be less than $100. Much less than the $200 to $300 lost per PS3 sold. Those 5 free movies probably cost Toshiba less than $25 total. However, the fire sale on the A2 at $99 was a limited time deal to generate more hardware sales for HDDVD. You can't get the A2 for $99 anymore.

[hyteckit]

Looks like DVD Studio Pro 4 only supports HD-DVD and not Bluray. HD DVD does mean HD DVD on this page:

Apple - Final Cut Studio 2 - DVD Studio Pro 4

Compressor mentions both HD DVD and Bluray support.

Apple - Final Cut Studio 2 - Compressor 3 - Industry-Standard Encoding Support

[Oversoul]

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

Looks like DVD Studio Pro 4 only supports HD-DVD and not Bluray. HD DVD does mean HD DVD on this page:

Apple - Final Cut Studio 2 - DVD Studio Pro 4

Compressor mentions both HD DVD and Bluray support.

Apple - Final Cut Studio 2 - Compressor 3 - Industry-Standard Encoding Support

You realize that can change with a mere software update, right? especially if Apple does decide to include a Blu-ray drive option.

[icruise]

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

Looks like DVD Studio Pro 4 only supports HD-DVD and not Bluray. HD DVD does mean HD DVD on this page:

Apple - Final Cut Studio 2 - DVD Studio Pro 4

Compressor mentions both HD DVD and Bluray support.

Apple - Final Cut Studio 2 - Compressor 3 - Industry-Standard Encoding Support

No offense, but that's been discussed multiple times in this thread.

[hyteckit]

Originally Posted by icruise 

No offense, but that's been discussed multiple times in this thread.

No offense taken. I've haven't read all 98 pages of this thread, nor do I do a search everything I reply.

[hyteckit]

Originally Posted by Oversoul 

You realize that can change with a mere software update, right? especially if Apple does decide to include a Blu-ray drive option.

Sure, but what's your point? I just thought it was funny, that's all. Not saying Apple is going to announce support for HD DVD over Bluray. So lighten up. Apple isn't going to announce support for either Bluray or HDDVD during Macworld.

[jokell82]

Originally Posted by Oversoul 

Granted MSRP says nothing about the cost of making the player, but I mentioned the great disparity between the $499 original MSRP and $99 fire sale price to point out just how much of a loss in potential profit for each A2 unit sold. Each A2 unit sold at that fire sale price also qualified for the 5 free HD DVDs by mail. As we pointed out earlier, do you think these HD DVDs are really free? Someone has to pay for it. At $99 per player, after parts, labor and other manufacturing costs, overall marketing, and supplying free HD DVDs by mail, how much do you think is lost on each of those units?

Since units sitting on the shelf and in the warehouse cost money, they probably saved a ton of money by having the sale.

[Montezuma58]

The logo has been approved by the DVD steering committee.
Steering Committee Letter Voting

[goMac]

ROM51? Ugh. Horrible name.