Really, rumor mongers? Really? WWDC's corpse is not even cold yet, and you're already walking back your weakest rumor by claiming it was
going to be in there, but mean old Apple axed it? This is Standard Rumor Fizzle Excuse number two, right behind "delayed because of production problems." So let us be sure we have this right -- that dual camera lens you've been
assuring us for months would be the lead visible difference in the otherwise-samey "iPhone 7," the one you showed us numerous mockups of, has been "cancelled" days before Foxconn cranks up the assembly to make 70 million of them for this fall because Apple just realized the technology is "immature?" Right. Sure.
This isn't the only rumor we have about the forthcoming "iPhone 7," or even the first one that's been walked back. There's another, much better one just waiting in the wings, which we will get to shortly. But first, we just want to say this: when you hear that a rumored feature that had no credible verification has been cancelled at more-or-less the last minute, what that means is "we were fooled by pranksters, but we don't want to admit it." Apple does not change its mind like a middle-schooler trying to decide what to wear to his or her first prom.
Look at that camera bump, just look at it
It is not credible that on the eve of the production run (they have to start now, presuming that didn't start already) -- assembling the parts and generally manufacturing the iPhone 7 for many weeks prior to its debut so as to have tens of millions of units on hand -- that Apple would call the factory in China and say "you know that ugly dual camera on the iPhone 7 Plus? Yeah, cancel that." While we don't know what the feature set is, we know it was locked down a while ago -- maybe a year ago -- and no major changes from that plan are happening barely three months before it goes on sale.
The other thing that needs to be pointed out is that the walk back is sourced from a Weibo (Chinese social site) post that claims it comes from "an insider at Foxconn" -- we should point out at this juncture that the person who cleans the toilets in the factory also fits that description -- and that it was dropped because it was "immature technology." So we are being asked to believe that Apple did not know this dual-lens technology was "immature" until just before the production lines rolled.
We spotted this walk-back on a site called
Digital Journal, which reports that while "most of the rumors" about the iPhone 7 had included the dual-lens camera on at least the Plus model as a given, it then goes on to give KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo credit for predicting that the iPhone 7 would be nothing special ("a disappointment" to buyers, more specifically is what he said), implying that Ming-Chi predicted this walkback would happen. One small problem: he is in fact
the source of the claim that the iPhone 7 would have a dual-lens camera. Oopsie.
Blurry pics? Now we're talking
Finally, we get a rumor that is backed up with what we consider to be credible evidence -- blurry, poorly-shot iPhone photos that look like they were taken the moment the security guard discovered what the leaker was up to. That's the stuff! Oh sure, it's often the case that the photos are poor-quality and blurry because the leaker is trying to hide his poor balsawood model or cheap 3-D printer work behind all that blur, but we still prefer it to the razor-sharp, photo-realistic pictures of products that completely do not exist "imaged" resting on a totally-looks-real picnic table with even the appropriate lens flare and
bokeh.
The picture below shows what is purported to be the iPhone 7 -- yes, we know the speaker and camera on the front aren't right and there's a third thing up there that does not appear on a genuine iPhone -- with a round home button as we have now. But look at the closeup: it's a circle drawn on the photo! No wait! It's a click-less Touch ID button! No indention, no pressing down to make things happen -- an extension of Touch ID technology applied to things like unlocking or calling up Siri.
There is certainly a strong argument to make that Apple would have a vested interest in moving to such a thing -- moving parts are a key point of failure, for starters. It would also -- along with the removal of the headphone jack, as has also been rumored -- move the iPhone further along down the path of becoming much more "waterproof." It is also true that Apple is planning a change in the wake functionality of the home button for iOS 10: it has introduced "raise to wake" (like how the Apple Watch does it).
These and other factors, like that Touch ID is now so incredibly fast that Apple had to come up with a way to avoid accidentally unlocking your iPhone in iOS 10 -- make a strong case for this rumor being true. We're happy to believe it, in fact -- we just don't think this
photo is legit. On top of it now being powered on yet having a screen in it -- a general sign that if you turned it on you'd see Android, if you catch our drift -- the prevailing knowledge is that the iPhone 7 will be a flop (according to Ming-Chi) because it is nearly identical to the iPhone 6s in looks. Weird Third Thing at the top, and a completely different Home button on the bottom (and no headphone jack!) do not count as "nearly identical" to us.
Given how really difficult it is these days to make a photo that blurry and the overall image that poor in the world of digital cameras, you almost have to admire the pains taken to make that photo look stolen. For anyone who still thinks it might be for real, we invite you to take a picture of an iPhone with an iPhone and see if you can make it look that bad (spoiler alert: you can't). It's almost as if the phone camera used to take these images was on a low-quality
Android phone ... just sayin' ... or even a "feature" phone. Now why would you do that when you work in a factory that makes iPhones? Oh wait.
One more thing ...
No, this isn't a plug for our UK-flavored alternate podcast
One More Thing, it's one other reason why people should be more skeptical about rumors: because some of them just
make no sense. The dual-lens thing above always seemed sketchy, but Apple
did in fact buy a company that specialized in such technology, so we may one day see it after all. The no-click home button also seems likely, and part of a general direction Apple has been going in for years (as few moving parts as possible).
On the main
MacNN Podcast this week, Managing Editor Mike and I
discussed the intriguing idea that Apple would bring iMessage (and the Messages and maybe even FaceTime app) over to Android in a bid for world domination and putting the SMS carriers out of business. It certainly would be nice to see
everyone we know in those nice, free, pleasing blue iMessage bubbles, but ultimately we rejected the idea because of one fundamental flaw.
That flaw is that, while Apple is not averse to writing apps for Android, it does so with but a single purpose: to get more Android switchers to change to iOS. That's the rationale behind making Apple Music available on the Android platform (well, that and the fact that their money is as valid as anybody's), and it is the specific
raison d'etre for Apple's Android-to-iOS migration tool. The problem with iMessage for Android is that there's then even less incentive for Android users to make the switch, we said.
That was Monday: on Thursday, someone at Apple listened to our podcast and
told Walt Mossberg what we'd said in a rare direct debunking of the "iMessage for Android" rumor. A "senior executive" (our guess: Phil) told the veteran
ReCode journalist that (quoting Mossberg) "Apple considers its own user base of one billion active devices to provide a large enough data set for any possible AI learning the company is working on. And, second, having a superior messaging platform that only worked on Apple devices would help sales of those devices -- the company's classic (and successful) rationale for years."
There you have it. Did we ever tell you about that time we scooped Apple? True story, bro.
-- Charles Martin
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