[AliveInDeath]

I say China or if bush is an idiot with his new missile deffense systems and such he will spark an arms race with the Russian Federation and they will rise agian in power.

[Montanan]

Next at bat: the EU.

After them: China, most likely, then maybe India.

[fat mac moron]

The French!

I just have this funny feeling...

[wataru]

I think Trinidad and Tobago are due.

[Zimphire]

None of us will find out, the US still has a few hundred years to go.

[malvolio]

China is the most likely candidate.
The SF/fantasy author L. Sprague deCamp wrote a series of stories based in the 22nd Century, with Brazil as the world's great super-power. Interesting thought...

[thunderous_funker]

If the 3 Gorges Dam project works like it's planned to, China will absolutely catapult to super power status in short order.

No contest. The sheer will power and total command of their population are impossible to compete with.

When the chief engineer of the Dam project was asked by western skeptics over their plan to relocate 2 million people (because their towns will be under water in 10 years), he responded by saying, "we do not respond to public criticism of national policies."

As long as they keep their population happy, nothing will stop China from being a mega power.

[ShortcutToMoncton]

*flexes*

ME.

[Cubeoid]

Originally posted by ShortcutToMoncton:
*flexes*

ME.

It's Chinatown!!!

[Atef's Carcase]

Originally posted by AliveInDeath:
I say China or if bush is an idiot with his new missile deffense systems and such he will spark an arms race with the Russian Federation and they will rise agian in power.

you're no doubt a young bloke and new enough to the boards, so I'll go easy on you.

Russia cannot afford an arms race. In fact, regardless of the missile shield, it wants to reduce nuclear warheads to 1500 warheads.

China has so many issues to overcome before it is a true superpower. You see, superpowers just don't have large militaries or a lot of military hardware, but TRUE superpowers are able to project significant military force anywhere in the world.

The Great Satan is the lone superpower, and will remain that way for the forseable future.

The EU will be an economic superpower in its own time, but will never be a true superpower because it doesn't have the will or finances to build a responsive, decisive, large, efficient, and powerful EU military force--one that is capable of acting outside Europe. Won't happen.

[Timo]

I'm thinkin' the Dallas Cowboys.

[engage1000]

What about Canada eh?

edit: stuff.... etc....

[Montanan]

And don't discount the possibility that *all* national governments will become increasingly irrelevant over time ... to be replaced by globalized corporate entities.

Bill Gates may yet rule the world someday ... ::shudder::

[Emotionally Fragile Luke]

Originally posted by engage1000:
What about Canada eh?

Shhh, you'll blow our cover!

[Saetre]

What about Nigeria? Many African countries have large amounts of untapped natural resources. Resouce abundance was a major factor in the US rise to power, no? Of course the US had a lot more in the way of resources... ANy thoughts?

[dampeoples]

I cannot believe nobody has mentioned Mexico yet, sheesh.

[Millennium]

The only one that's really, seriously in the running at this point is China. But they still have some awfully big hurdles to overcome if they're going to manage that. They could still manage even without overcoming those hurdles, but this would likely become a nightmare scenario for the surrounding lands. For while there is some reform occurring in China, it remains fundamentally Maoist: possibly the most dehumanizing political system implemented successfully to date. However, that will make it harder for it to achievve superpower status, and the reforms which are pretty much necessary for it to achieve superpower status will likely alleviate the threat.

India may prove to be the proverbial dark horse. It, as with China, faces some serious hurdles before it can rise that high, but it has a lot of promise. Its military might is not great -nukes notwithstanding- but it is starting to build economic power. It probably will not make it in this coming cycle of power -though it may still do so- but it will certainly be a contender in the one after that, if current trends continue.

Japan could have been a contender, but the prolonged economic depression there will keep them out of the running as long as it's still an issue. They're certainly out of the running for this next cycle. Maybe even the one after that, unless they can really turn themselves around.

The US will probably remain a superpower for this next cycle. But that will be mostly through inertia. The US has some serious issues -the qualities which allowed it to rise are starting to decline- and it risks losing its status in the cycle after next unless those issues are resolved.

I'm not sure the EU is going to rise to superpower status anytime soon. They're not really very well-trusted by most of the world, and they don't have the economic or military muscle to overcome that hurdle, as the current superpower does. Plus, a lot -thoug certainly not all- of the exploratory/entrepreneurial spirit which was there a century or two ago is now gone; most of it went to the US, which is most of what catapulted it to superpower status in the first place. And although we're starting to see it migrate away from the US, it's not going to Europe; a lot of it is going to various Asian regions.

[voodoo]

I really don't know the answer. It isn't like there has been a tradition to have SuperPowers� until the Soviet Union and post WWII USA. There was no superpwower before that time. After the fall of the Soviet Union the USA is alone in its superpowerdom (new word), and there is no guarantee or anything that there will be another one. How about this: there will become a balance of power between many countries. Perhaps all those mentioned. China, USA, EU, India, Japan etc. And thus the era of cold wars and superpowers would come to an end. I think that is the most likely scenario. But, hey. Anything can happen. Always in motion the future is /Yoda

[ink]

Don't forget India.

They are a nuclear power now, and they have the people, the will and are rapidly ascending the technology ladder. I think Japan is out of the picture for now, but if you had asked me this question in the 80s it would have been my answer (although I was just a young-un back then). I know a lot of Indians here at work, and they are mostly optimistic about all things India; kind of a "twinkle" in their eye when they talk about it. Plus, they have quite a legion over here in our universities (a good thing, IMHO). Most Europeans I know have dubious feelings about the EU (at best). Take this all with a grain of salt, of course.

I'd love South America to rise up, but that's just because of continental pride... :-) I don't think Brazil or Argentina are up to managing the IMF yet... (just a hunch)

India has a ways to go, to be sure; but so does the USA.

[derien]

I think that when and if the U.S. fades as a dominant force, it won't be because it was displaced by another superpower. I think regional hegemons are a much likelier scenario. Culturally, I believe the U.S. is really the only country that can sustain global "superpowership."

I don't see any scenario under which the European Union would take the lead. At least for the conceivable future, it will remain Germany and Britain and France and all the rest. In contrast to the countries of Europe, our states (though clearly diverse) share a crucial national identity that allows for unified action on the international scale.

China is often cited as the Next Big Thing, but I don't think the Middle Kingdom has ambition for global domination. Regional, perhaps, but what is really important is the are between the Mekong and Yangtzee rivers. The likelihood of that changing in the foreseeable future is next to nill.

A resurgent Russia? It's probably too late for that. They have the nukes, land and resources, but lack the population and dynamicism to pull it all together into global influence.

Anyone else? The only possibility I see is San Marino. Actually, it's not widely known, but the country already represents the fulcrum of world power. Nothing happens without the explicit (but secret) approval of that great nation. At present, they're perfectly happy to leave things that way, quietly pulling the strings, but should they ever decide to reveal themselves, there would be nothing the world could do to stop them.

[7Macfreak]

China and India, while being possible candidates,have similar problems. but i think China seems to have better foresight in being able to control those problems. One of the big problems is population which China has controlled, so far, better than India. Another is corruption. If both these countries can over come corruption successfully, then yeah.. their chances are great, cause their main resource will be the shear man power that their populations will be able to 'dish out'. Also, i think India needs to be a little more aggressive to be able to inch ahead of China.

The US seems to be headed the way of Russia/Japan. thats IF the current situation doesnt work out in their favour.. if iraq gives them a tough time, the recession could turn into a major depression (which for the sake of your 'average american', i hope does not happen cause they're gonna be affected by it the most)

As for the EU.. um.. i cant really say much, but they seem to be way too diverse and arent too 'united' just yet.

[derien]

Originally posted by ink:
Don't forget India.

They are a nuclear power now, and they have the people, the will and are rapidly ascending the technology ladder. I think Japan is out of the picture for now, but if you had asked me this question in the 80s it would have been my answer (although I was just a young-un back then). I know a lot of Indians here at work, and they are mostly optimistic about all things India; kind of a "twinkle" in their eye when they talk about it. Plus, they have quite a legion over here in our universities (a good thing, IMHO). Most Europeans I know have dubious feelings about the EU (at best). Take this all with a grain of salt, of course.

I'd love South America to rise up, but that's just because of continental pride... :-) I don't think Brazil or Argentina are up to managing the IMF yet... (just a hunch)

India has a ways to go, to be sure; but so does the USA.

I think India is more or less in the same position as China. I'm not saying these countries couldn't be superpowers by some measure, but I think it would take a huge adjustment in the national character to develop ambition beyond the region. More than that, although India is a huge country (particularly population-wise), it is Hindu. That religion doesn't tend to proselytize, and has limited appeal beyond it borders.

I suppose it depends on your definition of superpower, but I tend to think that a superpower must have the will to influence politics anywhere and everywhere. Cultures that tend to be inward-looking seem not to have that ambition.

[Sealobo]

China.

In fact, China has always been the most powerful world leader before the last few hundred years (before the Ching dynasty). It is not surprising at all if China should rise again.

[undotwa]

Definately China. China's economy is already one of the fastest growing the world. Pretty soon (20 years or something) it will match, or even surpass the US's.

It's military will grow, it will be the largest military, however it won't be able to project itself over the world. You could say the Second World War benefitted the US because the US was then able to establish bases all over the world.

[simonjames]

Who gives a toss?

How about a UN run world government - no super powers - no starvation - no poverty

Not in my life time

I think a country should not be valued by the number of weapons of mass destruction they have but by how well their population is. And by well I mean health, education and wealth. If my values were used Scandanavia would lead the world - not America.

[undotwa]

Originally posted by simonjames:
Who gives a toss?

How about a UN run world government - no super powers - no starvation - no poverty

Not in my life time

I think a country should not be valued by the number of weapons of mass destruction they have but by how well their population is. And by well I mean health, education and wealth. If my values were used Scandanavia would lead the world - not America.

UN was flawed when it began.

The only way to end world poverty is to get rid of those extremely corrupt governments in control of them. Don't blame the west.

[simonjames]

True - point taken. There are many many examples of nations (especially those in Africa) that spend more in one year on their military and presidential comforts than they spend on their poorest citizens in a decade.

[korn]

There is no doubt about it; China will be the biggest world power in 50 years time.

The US is a declining star and Europe is not reorganizing as quickly as it should.

[korn]

Originally posted by undotwa:
Definately China. China's economy is already one of the fastest growing the world. Pretty soon (20 years or something) it will match, or even surpass the US's.

It's military will grow, it will be the largest military, however it won't be able to project itself over the world. You could say the Second World War benefitted the US because the US was then able to establish bases all over the world.

Exactly, the help for Europe was the best investment they ever did for the US (and European) economy.