So now that it is finally confirmed that Apple has chosen September 9 for its
big event, and a different venue than usual to accommodate more press and that requires some street closures for a likely outdoor component (which hints strongly that something unexpected is up), the rumors are again flying about what we should expect to see at the event. Let's have a look at what's being whispered about, and a (speculative) look at the odds any of it will happen.
For the purposes of this article and to save some time, we're going to put down as dead certain the announcement of the new iPhones, which we believe will be called the iPhone 6s and 6s Plus (not 7 as some would have it). Beyond that, anything could happen. Let's start off our report card (complete with grades to represent chances of happening) with rumors centered around the iPhone, then.
iPhone 6s, 6s Plus ... and more?
There's a solid report that the newest iPhones will offer a new color option, a shade matching the Rose Gold Apple Watch option. There will, of course, be one important difference: the iPhone version will not have any
actual gold in it, unlike the Apple Watch, thus keeping the price down below $10,000. This rumor is backed up with some photo evidence, so we rate this an "A" for "incredibly likely."
In more speculative territory, the idea that at least one of the two iPhone models will gain a new Force Touch-capable touchscreen (at a cost of making the device slightly thicker) is unsupported by any parts leaks (
until yesterday), though it seems like a logical option. A version of the display part for the "iPhone 6s" has been seen with an extra chip and connector, but it has been noted that this part is both thicker and heavier than the iPhone 6, so we have to wonder about that one and give it only a "B" for "expected." There's a rumor that Force Touch might not be called that on the iPhone, but we can't think why not -- so that rumor gets a "D" for "unlikely."
Slightly thicker and heavier iPhone 6 shell
Animated wallpapers, inspired by the Apple Watch: we got motion wallpapers with iOS 7, and so we could certainly see a brief animation when the screen is unlocked or awoken happening. We'll give this one a "B." That rumor, however, has given birth to
another rumor, which is that Apple will switch to OLED for the iPhone screens. It's been quite successful for the Apple Watch, so we'll give this a "C."
There's also a plethora of camera discussion. Traditionally, the camera is always improved in the "s" models, so it would be no surprise to hear of Apple moving to a 12-megapixel or even 16MP camera module for the rear camera (we'll give that an "A" grade) and an improvement to the front-facing "selfie" camera (perhaps gaining its own flash, we'll rate that a "B+" rumor). It's also been said that the rear camera will be able to shoot 4K-quality video. We could see that happening, but it might not come this round, so we're throwing that one in the "C" basket.
Another possibility is a report of smaller, lower-capacity batteries on the iPhone 6s line. We confess to being torn on this one: Apple may have made great strides in overall efficiency that allows for a smaller battery, but lower capacity? On a phone that has spawned a healthy cottage industry of power-packs for power-users in its present form? We have doubts on that, since the form factor doesn't need to get any thinner, so we're rating that one a hedge-y "C-minus" for "could be partially correct."
As for the rumor that Apple will keep the 16/64/128GB storage configurations, and specifically keep the 16GB version, we think that's likely. Apple has been pushing users to make more use of cloud services like Apple Music, iCloud Photo Library and so on, which dramatically reduces the need for space on the hardware, so we think this is "B+" very likely.
Following much talk about an "iPhone 6c" or a revised iPhone 5s conversion into an improved iPhone 5c that would still be available as an entry-level model, that rumor has now been firmly walked back, and we don't expect to see an "iPhone 6c" announced (so a grade of "D"). We think the iPhone 5c is out of here too ("B") -- and while the model was a lot more successful than pundits would have you believe (it was continuously among the top five best-selling individual smartphone brands), it didn't really catch on with the youth market it was clearly aimed at.
Thus, we think Apple will quietly retire it -- but you can bet your bottom dollar that metal-reinforced plastic technology that made it the first iPhone that didn't need a case at all will reappear someday. We also think the four-inch form factor or 5c form factor could be revived as an exclusively non-US model that would be the "low-cost iPhone" analysts clamored for two years ago and didn't get.
Finally, there's a photo floating around that purports to show the finished box of the iPhone 6s Plus. Most sites have (rightfully) called this report "sketchy" because of the trademark "leaker low-quality" image, and there are some changes that make it unlikely (a larger font, using the full product name rather than just "iPhone," too-thin paper and so on), but if animated wallpapers are a thing, the real box could also go a similar minimalist path and show off the phone with a new wallpaper on it. A "D" grade for this particular box, but a "C" grade for the chance of a change in packaging -- in fact, we think there might be a change to better distinguish which color and size models are in the boxes.
The traditional blurry "leaked" photo shot
We're going to go out on a limb here and say that we don't think there will a new Apple TV announced on September 9 -- at least not the one the rumor sites think will happen. We're incredibly skeptical of the idea that the Apple TV will jump to 4K support this year (a "D" grade), that it will have its own cable-package type deal of channels at this time (another "D").
That said, the staff is split on whether Apple is likely to debut the new form factor (said to be thinner), which it has been said will feature a new remote (at last) that may or may not be motion-sensitive (so let's call that a "C"), and offer Siri voice control and recommendations not unlike Apple Music's "For You" engine (this is more likely, so that earns a "B" grade), with hints of more to come.
Will the Apple TV get its own App Store? That seems hazy, since AirPlay seems to do the job, but we have a hunch that something unexpected could be happening on that front, so we'll go with a "C" on that. For the record, we think the rumored channels package will happen eventually, and we might hear (briefly) about it on that Wednesday, but we think its more likely coming early next year rather than now.
iPads
Again, we're kind of doubtful about a new iPad -- or perhaps we should say we're skeptical about anything radically new in this department. The iPad Air 2 has kind of perfected the larger form, while the iPad mini 3 has nailed down that market pretty well, and there continues to be no serious competition to either of them. The rumored "iPad Pro" is starting to look more likely than it did a few months ago, but we don't think it will debut at this event (so give that "D").
We're beginning to wonder if the iPad (and possibly the Apple TV) won't just get its own event in a month or so ("C"), but if Apple goes with iPads at this event, they will not be the revitalization Wall Street is hoping for -- they are likely to be just upgraded versions of what we currently have, though we're hoping for Apple to lower the price substantially enough that it gets more people interested in trying them out ("C").
One more thing ...
We think there's something that Apple has managed to keep secret so far, and it could be big. The Bill Graham Civic Auditorium holds 7,000 people, three times the capacity of the Flint Center used for the Apple Watch debut, and five times larger than Apple's usual announcement venue, the Yerba Buena Center. In addition, clearances have been issued for street closings, suggesting an outdoor component that has yet to be put up (but
a la the Apple Watch event's tent-based outdoor showcase). There is something Apple wants a lot of media to see there.
We really have no idea what it could be. None of the current rumors we think unlikely (a 12.9-inch iPad, a new Mac Pro, a 4K Apple TV with a $40 per month channel package) would merit that expansion over previous events, and Apple still needs to do more to promote its Watch, Apple Pay, and Apple Music services (and we think there will be segments devoted to this during the presentation).
We really don't think its for something like a concert from some flavor-of-the-month pop star, but if there's one thing we've learned in nearly 20 years of covering Apple, it is this: just when you think you've got them figured out, they zag when you thought they would zig. We love suprises, so anything new would be fine with us. Let the countdown begin.
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