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Election 2020 (Page 3)
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Spheric Harlot
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Nov 6, 2020, 11:27 AM
 
Congratulations, President-Elect Biden.

May you inherit a Country still governable, now that Trump and his followers will try to torch and destroy what’s left. (Pun intended.)
     
subego
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Nov 6, 2020, 12:50 PM
 
Originally Posted by andi*pandi View Post
Jo Jorgenson's expense is how I read it.
Perhaps I’ve underestimated Jeb meme penetration.

     
Laminar
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Nov 6, 2020, 01:29 PM
 
Please clap.
     
subego
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Nov 6, 2020, 02:13 PM
 
Originally Posted by Laminar View Post
Please clap.
I feel like it'd be more helpful if you'd just come out and say what you're trying to say. I think you're hinting at there being something fishy with the way the hands trended.
     
Laminar
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Nov 6, 2020, 02:30 PM
 
Ha! That was just me being oversensitive to all of the claims around here of how the numbers don't add up and how the Democrats "keep magically finding votes everywhere."

Today my company released a modified HR policy banning "willful damage to company property" that includes political propaganda of any type.
     
subego
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Nov 6, 2020, 09:25 PM
 
Originally Posted by Laminar View Post
Ha! That was just me being oversensitive to all of the claims around here of how the numbers don't add up and how the Democrats "keep magically finding votes everywhere."
Totally understood!
     
reader50
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Nov 7, 2020, 12:05 AM
 
-- Current Numbers --
Nevada - Biden up 1.8% (22.6K) [13% votes remain]
Arizona - Biden up 0.9% (29.8K) [10% votes remain]
Pennsylvania - Biden up 0.4% (27K votes) [1% votes remain]
Georgia - Biden up 0.1% (4K votes) [1% votes remain]
North Carolina - Trump up 1.4% (76.5K) [1% votes remain]
Alaska - Trump up 28.6% (54.6K) [50% votes remain]

- My Analysis -
• Nevada - Biden lead increasing. I expect Biden to win. It will be Nov 10 before they finish counting, but they could call this state any time now.
• Arizona - Biden lead decreasing. I projected the numbers for the counties still counting, and Biden's lead should hold. I expect Biden to win by about 25K. Higher if late absentee ballots skew blue.
• Pennsylvania - Biden lead increasing. Today is the deadline for absentee ballots to arrive, so from here on out, it's just counting. Numbers likely to stabilize next week, and state law requires counting to stop Nov 23. I expect Biden to win, and this state could be called for him any time.
•Georgia - Biden lead increasing, but small. State has announced there will be a recount, because the total is so close. I expect Biden to win, but it won't be called until after the recount. Considering the current count hasn't finished, this likely pushes final numbers to next Friday (Nov 13).
• North Carolina - counting on hold until absentee ballots can be counted. County election boards cannot count absentees until they hold pre-scheduled meetings, which had to be declared at least 2 weeks before the election. Counties cannot change the meeting dates after the election. So they're just waiting until the meeting dates come up. The state deadline to report results is Nov 13, and we might not get a call until then.
The exact number of remaining ballots is uncertain. Biden could win if most absentees are for him, and this is possible. Most NC citizens voted at the polls. In my opinion, North Carolina remains too close to call.
Alaska - Trump leading heavily. Counting total stuck at 50% until Nov 10, when absentee ballots can start being counted. State will get called sometime between Nov 10-18, depending on what trend appears. For Biden to win, absentee ballots would have to favor him by about a 2:1 margin. And Alaska would have to break historic patterns of voting red. I expect Trump to win.

So my prediction: Biden will win with an Electoral College total of 306. (321 if he gets NC)
Trump will finish with an Electoral College total of 217. (232 if he gets NC)
     
Waragainstsleep  (op)
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Nov 7, 2020, 08:42 AM
 
Assuming he isn't doing 10-life for tax fraud and whatever else gets dug up, will Trump try to run again in four years? Will the GOP let him?
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
subego
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Nov 7, 2020, 08:47 AM
 
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
Whats taking Alaska so long to count? I figured that would be a quick one to call.
They’re waiting for absentee ballots. They don’t have the same quality of mail service as the lower 48.
     
Thorzdad
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Nov 7, 2020, 09:33 AM
 
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
Assuming he isn't doing 10-life for tax fraud and whatever else gets dug up, will Trump try to run again in four years? Will the GOP let him?
That will happen only if state regulators get him. You can bet the farm that he's going to issue himself a federal pardon for everything ever.
[set curmudgeon_mode=1]
     
Spheric Harlot
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Nov 7, 2020, 09:49 AM
 
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
Assuming he isn't doing 10-life for tax fraud and whatever else gets dug up, will Trump try to run again in four years? Will the GOP let him?
The GOP would be stupid to let him. He was a great test buffoon. Next round, their player will be a much more effective fascist.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...merica/617023/
     
Thorzdad
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Nov 7, 2020, 11:38 AM
 
[set curmudgeon_mode=1]
     
Thorzdad
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Nov 7, 2020, 12:30 PM
 
So, the Trump campaign is holding a presser at a landscape company in Philly. It’s next to an adult bookstore, too. It’s just too weird. I expect some seriously disconnected-from-reality ranting in this one.

And, the news networks have begun calling Pennsylvania for Biden.
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andi*pandi
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Nov 7, 2020, 12:41 PM
 
PA declared for Biden.
Philly mayor is awesome.
I'm relieved but still worried about the damage Trump can do until January.
     
P
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Nov 7, 2020, 12:57 PM
 
CNN, CBS & NBC have called PA for Biden. ABC calls him the “apparent winner” (same language used for Wisconsin) as he leads by a small margin and there aren’t enough votes left to change the outcome, but the margin is so small they wouldn’t normally call it. Fox held out a bit, but have now called PA and NV (and preciously AZ).
The new Mac Pro has up to 30 MB of cache inside the processor itself. That's more than the HD in my first Mac. Somehow I'm still running out of space.
     
Thorzdad
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Nov 7, 2020, 01:16 PM
 
Anyone catch any of Ghouliani’s unhinged press conference at the landscape company? I saw a bit of it, and it was prime Rudy.
[set curmudgeon_mode=1]
     
subego
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Nov 7, 2020, 01:18 PM
 
Originally Posted by andi*pandi View Post
I'm relieved but still worried about the damage Trump can do until January.
My guess is he won’t do much.

He still has the authority to **** with shit, but just lost all his power to do so, if the distinction I’m making is clear.

If he starts throwing punches, Cocaine Mitch (who still has power, and a lot of it) will punch back.
     
Thorzdad
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Nov 7, 2020, 01:36 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
My guess is he won’t do much.

He still has the authority to **** with shit, but just lost all his power to do so, if the distinction I’m making is clear.

If he starts throwing punches, Cocaine Mitch (who still has power, and a lot of it) will punch back.
Maybe. He’s done a ton of damage via executive orders, which don’t require any input from Mitch. I can easily see him carpet bombing the country with EOs.

Someone I was reading thought he might take a bunch of trips to Trump resorts all over the place, in order to make some bank soaking the government, billing for $3 glasses of water and the like.
[set curmudgeon_mode=1]
     
P
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Nov 7, 2020, 01:37 PM
 
One little nitpick someone pointed out: since both of the Georgia senate seats are off to a second round, the GOP can’t actually burn the country down in the next few weeks, because they need those seats (or in any case at least one) to control the Senate for the next two years.
The new Mac Pro has up to 30 MB of cache inside the processor itself. That's more than the HD in my first Mac. Somehow I'm still running out of space.
     
subego
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Nov 7, 2020, 01:51 PM
 
Originally Posted by Thorzdad View Post
Maybe. He’s done a ton of damage via executive orders, which don’t require any input from Mitch. I can easily see him carpet bombing the country with EOs.
He has the authority to make a bunch of EOs, but no power to enforce them. People will just slow-walk it, and if Trump complains, the collective response will be “come at me, bro”.

And, lo... Trump will have nothing to come at them with.
     
MacNNFamous
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Nov 7, 2020, 02:13 PM
 
     
subego
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Nov 7, 2020, 02:14 PM
 
Much hooting and hollering and honking of horns in my neighborhood.
     
reader50
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Nov 7, 2020, 02:29 PM
 
The guys will be pleased to know authorities will indeed count all their fake ballots. Just not the authorities they wanted to do the counting.
     
Thorzdad
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Nov 7, 2020, 02:30 PM
 
Very quiet here. Then again, I live in a bright red northern suburb of Indianapolis, so there won’t be much celebrating here today, I guess.

Not sure if I want to venture out and see how the rollin’ coal boys are taking the news. They blocked the interstate a week or so ago. Bunch of trucks flying Trump flags going about 10mph, backing-up traffic behind them.
[set curmudgeon_mode=1]
     
subego
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Nov 7, 2020, 03:01 PM
 
Originally Posted by Thorzdad View Post
Very quiet here. Then again, I live in a bright red northern suburb of Indianapolis, so there won’t be much celebrating here today, I guess.

Not sure if I want to venture out and see how the rollin’ coal boys are taking the news. They blocked the interstate a week or so ago. Bunch of trucks flying Trump flags going about 10mph, backing-up traffic behind them.
I’m a block away from retail with lots of foot traffic, and it’s 70°, so prime spontaneous party conditions.

When I left-off yesterday, the internet right wing was claiming fraud, but I haven’t checked in since the announcement.
     
subego
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Nov 7, 2020, 05:00 PM
 
Now we got choppers.

Edit: street’s shut down a few blocks over. I’ve got a friend with a balcony view.
     
Thorzdad
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Nov 7, 2020, 09:40 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
When I left-off yesterday, the internet right wing was claiming fraud, but I haven’t checked in since the announcement.
Trump has been claiming fraud since at least January.
[set curmudgeon_mode=1]
     
P
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Nov 8, 2020, 06:11 AM
 
So, Puerto Rico voted to be a state again, and it was a simple yes/no vote this time. Time to do it? Might do something to correct the popular vote/EC split, which appears to be the biggest it has ever been this year (Biden looks to win by 5, and the tipping point state is going to be AZ, GA or WI, all of which look to win by less than 1%).
The new Mac Pro has up to 30 MB of cache inside the processor itself. That's more than the HD in my first Mac. Somehow I'm still running out of space.
     
Waragainstsleep  (op)
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Nov 8, 2020, 06:50 AM
 
I thought this video was interesting.

I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
Thorzdad
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Nov 8, 2020, 08:27 AM
 
There's a real "last days" feel about this. I especially like the unintentionally apropos haz-mat sign.

[set curmudgeon_mode=1]
     
subego
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Nov 8, 2020, 08:32 AM
 
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
I thought this video was interesting.

I bailed at about 1:50.

The two abortion cases I’ve read (presumably included within the 6 he mentioned) didn’t get within miles of Roe v Wade.

Neither of the dissents Roberts concurred with (written by Alito) attacked Roe v Wade, or Planned Parenthood v Casey. The reasoning the speaker is using to claim Roberts doesn’t consider Roe v Wade as settled law is at best ignorant, and at worst an outright lie.
     
reader50
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Nov 8, 2020, 12:49 PM
 
Originally Posted by P View Post
So, Puerto Rico voted to be a state again, and it was a simple yes/no vote this time. Time to do it? Might do something to correct the popular vote/EC split, which appears to be the biggest it has ever been this year (Biden looks to win by 5, and the tipping point state is going to be AZ, GA or WI, all of which look to win by less than 1%).
My usual news sources have not covered this - I had to hit Wikipedia for the details.

Both Republican and Democrat platforms have for decades said Puerto Rico gets to decide, and we'll honor their choice. However - there is no Republican platform this year. They decided to skip it - technically, the Republican party stands for nothing right now. Except to re-elect Trump.

Puerto Rico should be admitted as #51. We need to keep our promises. The impact on future elections is unclear - Puerto Rico has its own political parties. It is not clear how they would vote in US elections. Against Trump should he stand again - I don't think those paper towels bought him many friends. Otherwise, no idea.
     
subego
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Nov 8, 2020, 12:58 PM
 
The conventional wisdom is they’d have Democrats as senators, but I’m sure they’d be at the conservative end of the spectrum.

Regardless, yeah... they want in, they should get in.
     
P
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Nov 8, 2020, 01:13 PM
 
Good! I was hoping you would all say that.

Tactically, this one is hard to game out. On the one hand, this is likely two blue senators, at least in the first batch, which would make Moscow Mitch and his friends nervous. On the other, Trump did better than expected with Latino voters, and they don’t want to jeopardize that going forward, so it may be better long term to go ahead with admission.

On a lighter note, I wonder if Nate Silver has reserved FiveForty.com.
The new Mac Pro has up to 30 MB of cache inside the processor itself. That's more than the HD in my first Mac. Somehow I'm still running out of space.
     
subego
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Nov 8, 2020, 01:46 PM
 
At the least, Mitch will want something for it, but the real problem is it wouldn’t take many defectors for it to happen. Mitch will have to give them something if he wants them to stay in line.

This assuming Georgia doesn’t flip.
     
P
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Nov 8, 2020, 02:10 PM
 
Ah yes, Georgia... is this the first time ever for a double run-off election in a single state? (As opposed to a run-on election, which a lot of states is experiencing right now)
The new Mac Pro has up to 30 MB of cache inside the processor itself. That's more than the HD in my first Mac. Somehow I'm still running out of space.
     
Thorzdad
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Nov 8, 2020, 03:04 PM
 
Originally Posted by P View Post
Ah yes, Georgia... is this the first time ever for a double run-off election in a single state? (As opposed to a run-on election, which a lot of states is experiencing right now)
How many states actually have a provision for run-offs? Here in Indiana, it's whomever gets the most votes, period. No percentages.
[set curmudgeon_mode=1]
     
reader50
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Nov 8, 2020, 04:36 PM
 
On a lighter note. Remember Rudy Giuliani's press conference in Philadelphia, right around when the election got called? The outdoor one with an industrial garage door behind the podium.



Here is what happened.

• Trump Campaign announced an important press conference at the Four Seasons in Philly.
• Someone called the Four Seasons to reserve the venue. But ...
• They called the Four Seasons Total Landscaping company by mistake.
• Whoever answered the phone played along, and accepted the reservation. Confirmed the address & time, etc. This info was sent to all the news network reporters.
• Trump people and Rudy arrived to find they're in an industrial / commercial area, and can use the front (with obvious signage) or the rear parking lot (no signage). They used the rear lot.
• So Rudy held a press conference in a parking lot, behind a garden center.

Nearby businesses included an adult bookstore, and a cremation center. The linked story misstates this - the bookstore is a couple stores down, and the cremation center is across the street. Neither are right beside the Four Seasons.

I imagine the employee who answered the phone will get a fat bonus. Talk about the publicity. And the business got whatever Trump paid to reserve a "hotel". This might also explain Rudy's mood.

If you want to check out the location, punch the address into Google Earth:

Four Seasons Total Landscaping
7347 State Rd, Philadelphia, PA 19136, USA
     
Waragainstsleep  (op)
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Nov 8, 2020, 05:16 PM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
On a lighter note. Remember Rudy Giuliani's press conference in Philadelphia, right around when the election got called? The outdoor one with an industrial garage door behind the podium.



Here is what happened.

• Trump Campaign announced an important press conference at the Four Seasons in Philly.
• Someone called the Four Seasons to reserve the venue. But ...
• They called the Four Seasons Total Landscaping company by mistake.
• Whoever answered the phone played along, and accepted the reservation. Confirmed the address & time, etc. This info was sent to all the news network reporters.
• Trump people and Rudy arrived to find they're in an industrial / commercial area, and can use the front (with obvious signage) or the rear parking lot (no signage). They used the rear lot.
• So Rudy held a press conference in a parking lot, behind a garden center.

Nearby businesses included an adult bookstore, and a cremation center. The linked story misstates this - the bookstore is a couple stores down, and the cremation center is across the street. Neither are right beside the Four Seasons.

I imagine the employee who answered the phone will get a fat bonus. Talk about the publicity. And the business got whatever Trump paid to reserve a "hotel". This might also explain Rudy's mood.

If you want to check out the location, punch the address into Google Earth:

Four Seasons Total Landscaping
7347 State Rd, Philadelphia, PA 19136, USA

I just read this and logged in to post about it!

This makes a rather nice final nail for me. An administration so useless they can't even book a hotel. I hope the American press has an absolute field day.
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
Waragainstsleep  (op)
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Nov 8, 2020, 05:23 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
I bailed at about 1:50.

The two abortion cases I’ve read (presumably included within the 6 he mentioned) didn’t get within miles of Roe v Wade.

Neither of the dissents Roberts concurred with (written by Alito) attacked Roe v Wade, or Planned Parenthood v Casey. The reasoning the speaker is using to claim Roberts doesn’t consider Roe v Wade as settled law is at best ignorant, and at worst an outright lie.
The interesting bit was the steps he thinks the Democrats should take if they were to win the White House and both houses.

I don't know you can say its ignorant or lying though. His voting record on abortion is clearly concerning, especially given the make up of the court now and the political shenanigans surrounding their appointment. But abortion rights aren't why I posted the video.
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
andi*pandi
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Nov 8, 2020, 05:32 PM
 
The landscaping snafu is so bizarre it's like a scene from Arrested Development.
     
Spheric Harlot
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Nov 8, 2020, 06:41 PM
 
Originally Posted by andi*pandi View Post
The landscaping snafu is so bizarre it's like a scene from Arrested Development.
Beautiful, poignant, and almost too on-the-point.
     
OreoCookie
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Nov 8, 2020, 08:07 PM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
On a lighter note. Remember Rudy Giuliani's press conference in Philadelphia, right around when the election got called? The outdoor one with an industrial garage door behind the podium.
Oooooh, now I get all the memes and the awkward photos. It’s really amazing how this is a perfect picture of the (outgoing) Trump administration.
I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.
     
subego
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Nov 8, 2020, 09:26 PM
 
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
His voting record on abortion is clearly concerning
Have you read the opinions in question?
     
Waragainstsleep  (op)
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Nov 9, 2020, 05:12 AM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Have you read the opinions in question?
No. I don't really do legal speak.
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
subego
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Nov 10, 2020, 07:44 AM
 
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
No. I don't really do legal speak.
This is a weak position from which to be handing me a casual dismissal, and I’d be lying if I said I didn’t find it frustrating.

Since abortion wasn’t the point of posting the video, perhaps my initial reply was equally frustrating, but to clarify, my initial point wasn’t about abortion, it was about the speaker’s credibility. Why should I trust his opinion when he gets basic shit wrong?

I’ve got one of the supposedly damning opinions right in front of me. It’s over 40 pages long. Is it possible a one sentence summation of this and five other opinions is missing the nuance?
     
Waragainstsleep  (op)
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Nov 10, 2020, 05:40 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
This is a weak position from which to be handing me a casual dismissal, and I’d be lying if I said I didn’t find it frustrating.

Since abortion wasn’t the point of posting the video, perhaps my initial reply was equally frustrating, but to clarify, my initial point wasn’t about abortion, it was about the speaker’s credibility. Why should I trust his opinion when he gets basic shit wrong?

I’ve got one of the supposedly damning opinions right in front of me. It’s over 40 pages long. Is it possible a one sentence summation of this and five other opinions is missing the nuance?
He claimed that Roberts voted against women's rights six times out of six. Is that incorrect?
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
subego
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Nov 10, 2020, 06:18 PM
 
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
He claimed that Roberts voted against women's rights six times out of six. Is that incorrect?
I would say it’s not quite that simple, but I’ll accept that characterization of Roberts for the sake of argument.

What was wildly false is the guy from the video made the claim those votes mean Roberts does not consider Roe v. Wade to be settled law. Of the opinions I read, both are wholly consistent with Roe v. Wade, as well as Planned Parenthood v. Casey (the other major Supreme Court decision on abortion).

That inaccuracy is why I bailed from the video.
     
Thorzdad
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Nov 10, 2020, 07:27 PM
 
Lots of firings happening over at the Pentagon. Replacing anyone who might say “no” to marching troops against citizens, maybe?
[set curmudgeon_mode=1]
     
subego
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Nov 10, 2020, 07:49 PM
 
Maybe I’m wrong, but it looks like he’s sacking civilians.

IOW, he’s likely just throwing a tantrum.
     
 
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