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Weaker iPhone sales
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vln2
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Jul 25, 2007, 12:44 AM
 
Few weeks ago we were led to believe that iPhone sales estimates during the first weekend could reach 700,000. New report lowers figures to 146,000 iPhone customers in weeks and says that only 40% of those iPhone customers are new to AT&T. Interestingly AT&T lost in the previous quarter 193,000 consumer lines so iPhone only made up part of that trend.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/24/te...gy&oref=slogin

Well, perhaps we were little hard on Apple (and AT&T) in the first few weeks. I hope that did not affect Apple sales. After all this is a great device with some very minor issues, typical in version 1.0.
Reports of possibly government having access to our data do not bother me. After all if they really want they can access our computers. My question is can anybody access it and is our data stored safely by NSA? When saving digital information on any device accessing Internet I try to think that someone will read it, I hope they find it exciting. iPhone is still not fully unlocked to other carriers so it has to be fairly safe. Everybody has been trying to hack it for a month now.
Apple has been mum about the sale figures and the future of iPhone including updates but that is rather typical. Now we know that Steve Jobs 10 million goal may be a challenge even though this is really a great product. Perhaps there was too much hype before?
( Last edited by vln2; Jul 25, 2007 at 12:51 AM. )
     
Simon
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Jul 25, 2007, 03:43 AM
 
IMHO this demonstrates nicely how irrational the stock market can be. Talk about a knee-jerk reaction by the uninformed...

Let's see. If I understand correctly
• AT&T's quarter ended on Saturday.
• iPhone launch was Friday 6pm.
• iPhones are sold and then separately activated. There were a lot of reports that activation wasn't working properly in the beginning.
• IOW the 146k activated iPhones represent devices bought and successfully activated during the first 30 hours.

That obviously means
• A lot more phones were likely sold than the 146k that were activated during the period.
• The first iPhone sales weekend lasted 54 hours, IOW 80% more than what AT&T's figures took into account.

So let's assume that while 146k phones were activated in the first 30h roughly 220k (+50%) were actually sold but weren't activated (or couldn't be activated). Then let's scale the number up to include the whole weekend. That brings us up to roughly 400k sold iPhones during the first weekend. And that is much more in line with previous analyst expectations (for whatever that's worth). I'm sure if AT&T would have released that number Apple's stock wouldn't have dropped 6%. But as it is, some people heard one number, thought it was actually another number (or didn't think at all), then forgot what a financial quarter actually is and finally equated the number with bad first weekend sales. Obviously neglecting the fact that after that weekend there was a hardly an AT&T or Apple store that had any stock left which already indicates sales surpassed Apple's estimates.

I'm used to seeing this kind of behavior on Wall Street, but it does baffle me that people earning north of 200k a year obviously have trouble with reading and adding numbers.
     
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Jul 25, 2007, 05:15 AM
 
Well, I bought my iPhone on the day the iPhone went on sale. However, I didn't activate my iPhone for a week, so I wasn't included in the activation figures. I think the activation system was swamped the first few days.
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Jul 25, 2007, 09:54 AM
 
I can GUARANTEE that Apple and AT&T sold more than 146,000 iPhones.
     
Dakarʒ
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Jul 25, 2007, 09:57 AM
 
This guys has an anti-iPhone bias.
     
theDreamer
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Jul 25, 2007, 10:00 AM
 
I am loving how all these analyst's are jumping to conclusions right now about the sale of the iPhone and its first swing at things.
Yet in their rush to slam/praise/etc. the item they have not done any research on how or why the numbers are the way they are. All they say was X number and said that is wrong to what Apple or AT&T was quoted saying so that is a negative.

I will be waiting for the next quarterly report from Apple & AT&T to truly see the correct figure of sales since these "first" quarter was nothing more than a day.
     
Sherman Homan
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Jul 25, 2007, 10:47 AM
 
It really is weird that literally billions of dollars of AAPL vanished over an obviously incorrect numbers statement from ATT. There is something wrong with the ATT activation number.
     
JLL
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Jul 25, 2007, 10:49 AM
 
Why is there something wrong with AT&T's numbers? They only cover a few hours.
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butterfly0fdoom
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Jul 25, 2007, 11:03 AM
 
Funny how the people that reported that AT&T's activation system was backlogged and delayed are reporting that AT&T only had "so few" activations... Do they not read their own publications/posts?
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besson3c
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Jul 25, 2007, 11:35 AM
 
Originally Posted by vln2 View Post
Reports of possibly government having access to our data do not bother me. After all if they really want they can access our computers. My question is can anybody access it and is our data stored safely by NSA? When saving digital information on any device accessing Internet I try to think that someone will read it, I hope they find it exciting. iPhone is still not fully unlocked to other carriers so it has to be fairly safe. Everybody has been trying to hack it for a month now.

Reports of government accessing your data do not bother you? Huh?

I'm not trying to suggest that the government does have access to iPhone data because I'm not up on this story, but whether the government is accessing my phone or computer, this is disconcerting either way.
     
besson3c
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Jul 25, 2007, 11:38 AM
 
Originally Posted by butterfly0fdoom View Post
Funny how the people that reported that AT&T's activation system was backlogged and delayed are reporting that AT&T only had "so few" activations... Do they not read their own publications/posts?
According to the MacRumors story: Mac Rumors: 146,000 iPhone Activations in First Two Days activation problems only affected 2% of iPhone users.
     
icruise
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Jul 25, 2007, 11:43 AM
 
There are a lot of unknowns with this, and I think we'll know the whole story (or most of it) when Apple announces their earnings later today.

But if they really only had 146,000 activations total in the first couple of days, then sales projections must have been WAY off (remember, we've been working under the assumption that at least 500,000 were sold on the first weekend, and maybe as many as 700,000). There's no way that an overwhelming majority of users bought the iPhone and then (for whatever reason) didn't activate it. Activation issues can't possibly account for the difference. If there really were 500,000 sales, that would mean that more than 2/3rds of all iPhone buyers couldn't activate their phones! Believe me, we would have heard about that. A thread about the activation issues posted a while back indicated that it was perhaps 2%.

I've been wondering why we haven't had any press releases from Apple trumpeting how many iPhones were sold in the first few days, and this may be the answer -- the numbers just aren't that impressive. They're not terrible, but if they're so much lower than people's expectations, it just looks bad.
     
besson3c
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Jul 25, 2007, 11:44 AM
 
Originally Posted by icruise View Post
There are a lot of unknowns with this, and I think we'll know the whole story (or most of it) when Apple announces their earnings later today.

But if they really only had 146,000 activations total in the first couple of days, then sales projections must have been WAY off (remember, we've been working under the assumption that at least 500,000 were sold on the first weekend, and maybe as many as 700,000). There's no way that an overwhelming majority of users bought the iPhone and then (for whatever reason) didn't activate it. Activation issues can't possibly account for the difference. If there really were 500,000 sales, that would mean that more than 2/3rds of all iPhone buyers couldn't activate their phones! Believe me, we would have heard about that. A thread about the activation issues posted a while back indicated that it was perhaps 2%.

I've been wondering why we haven't had any press releases from Apple trumpeting how many iPhones were sold in the first few days, and this may be the answer -- the numbers just aren't that impressive. They're not terrible, but if they're so much lower than people's expectations, it just looks bad.

Sounds like a reasonable assessment to me...
     
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Jul 25, 2007, 12:13 PM
 
Originally Posted by theDreamer View Post
All they say was X number and said that is wrong to what Apple or AT&T was quoted saying so that is a negative.
Neither Apple nor AT&T were ever quoted as saying how many were estimated to be sold. Those estimates were made up by "analysts".

The final numbers wont be as high as these analysts predicted, but they wont be as low as what AT&T reported.
     
ort888
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Jul 25, 2007, 12:13 PM
 
Good. I hope they don't sell that well.

That way they will feel pressure to lower the price and improve it more rapidly.

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butterfly0fdoom
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Jul 25, 2007, 12:25 PM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
Reports of government accessing your data do not bother you? Huh?

I'm not trying to suggest that the government does have access to iPhone data because I'm not up on this story, but whether the government is accessing my phone or computer, this is disconcerting either way.
Well, it doesn't bother me because I have nothing to hide. I have no reason to fear the government accessing my data.
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vln2  (op)
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Jul 25, 2007, 12:47 PM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
Reports of government accessing your data do not bother you? Huh?
I'm not trying to suggest that the government does have access to iPhone data because I'm not up on this story, but whether the government is accessing my phone or computer, this is disconcerting either way.
First of all it is not true that iPhone is more exposed then any other PDA to snooping. For experienced, skilled person your contacts list can be extracted from any device and most of them have more holes then iPhone does. I only expect iPhone to have decent security features which will keep most snoopers at bay.

I have access to all servers at work and have no interest in anyone's personal info. I have same expectations from anyone authorized to look at my own data.
     
besson3c
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Jul 25, 2007, 12:49 PM
 
Originally Posted by butterfly0fdoom View Post
Well, it doesn't bother me because I have nothing to hide. I have no reason to fear the government accessing my data.
No offense, but this is a dumb rationale. Are you a supporter of the Patriot Act for the same reason? Are you hip to wire tapping for the same reason? Should any kind of government surveillance be off limits to the general public without a warrant?
     
besson3c
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Jul 25, 2007, 12:53 PM
 
Originally Posted by vln2 View Post
First of all it is not true that iPhone is more exposed then any other PDA to snooping. For experienced, skilled person your contacts list can be extracted from any device and most of them have more holes then iPhone does. I only expect iPhone to have decent security features which will keep most snoopers at bay.

I have access to all servers at work and have no interest in anyone's personal info. I have same expectations from anyone authorized to look at my own data.
I don't know about the security of other PDAs, but if there are holes they should be addressed - period. Whether or not you have any personal information stored is irrelevant, because somebody might store personal information in this manner, and because PDA customers frankly shouldn't have to worry about identity theft and the like simply because of vendor negligence.

If you were to buy a car that performed like crap during a car crash, would that make it okay for everybody else who haven't gotten into an accident and don't anticipate being in one?
     
vln2  (op)
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Jul 25, 2007, 01:15 PM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
I don't know about the security of other PDAs, but if there are holes they should be addressed - period. Whether or not you have any personal information stored is irrelevant, because somebody might store personal information in this manner, and because PDA customers frankly shouldn't have to worry about identity theft and the like simply because of vendor negligence.

If you were to buy a car that performed like crap during a car crash, would that make it okay for everybody else who haven't gotten into an accident and don't anticipate being in one?
First with the car: are you aware that the data from your car's computer leading into crash can be used against you by your insurance and in the court?
I have a great admiration for what you do but these days you have to get used to the idea that any information saved in digital form can be accessed and red by someone. That has nothing to do with some PDAs having more holes then others. Emails and messages leave our devices and can be intercepted somwhere else. I am sure that AT&T like other providers can have access to their clients contact lists and their messages.
It is just better to get used to the idea of "relative privacy" hoping that only authorized person would have access to your data, they better have good reason for that and do not share it.
     
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Jul 25, 2007, 02:58 PM
 
First with the car: are you aware that the data from your car's computer leading into crash can be used against you by your insurance and in the court?
That is not true in many states, and others who have yet to have the issue arrive, so that statement is not 100% true.
The idea that more private information is made available to the government is a turn off, but understand & trusting (to some degree) that they will not abuse this power is half of it. Of course there will be lines that are crossed maybe, but what if that stopped someone from committing a crime? Was it worth it?
     
butterfly0fdoom
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Jul 25, 2007, 03:29 PM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
No offense, but this is a dumb rationale. Are you a supporter of the Patriot Act for the same reason? Are you hip to wire tapping for the same reason? Should any kind of government surveillance be off limits to the general public without a warrant?

I don't support it, and I don't think it's right. I don't think the government should be allowed to spy on its citizens without a warrant. But fact is, it happens, and, like I said, I don't have anything to hide. But that doesn't mean I support their actions. I'm more worried about random people spying on me than the government.


As for the iPhone security holes, hopefully they get plugged soon anyway.
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Jul 25, 2007, 04:33 PM
 
There's already a discussion on the iPhone and government surveillance in this thread. How about we discuss sales figures here and leave the surveillance paranoia to the other thread?
     
icruise
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Jul 25, 2007, 04:46 PM
 
Yes, I thought I had clicked on the wrong thread when I read some of these posts. Keep it on topic.
     
Sherman Homan
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Jul 25, 2007, 04:55 PM
 
SSSHHHHH!!!!!!
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Jul 25, 2007, 04:58 PM
 
Reporting its third quarter financial results today, Apple said it sold 9.815 million iPods during the quarter—slightly below some analyst predictions, but a 21 percent increase compared to the same quarter last year. The company posted revenue of $5.41 billion and net quarterly profit of $818 million, or $.92 per diluted share, compared with revenue of $4.37 billion and net quarterly profit of $472 million, or $.54 per diluted share in Q3 2006.

“We’re thrilled to report the highest June quarter revenue and profit in Apple’s history, along with the highest quarterly Mac sales ever,” said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO. “iPhone is off to a great start — we hope to sell our one- millionth iPhone by the end of its first full quarter of sales — and our new product pipeline is very strong.”

“We are very pleased to report strong financial results including cash flow from operations exceeding $1.2 billion for the quarter,” said Peter Oppenheimer, Apple’s CFO. “Looking ahead to the fourth fiscal quarter of 2007, we expect revenue of about $5.7 billion and earnings per diluted share of about $.65.”

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Sherman Homan
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Jul 25, 2007, 05:07 PM
 
From earlier today:

According to the consensus of analysts surveyed by financial research firm Thomson First Call, Apple is expected to report earnings of 72 cents a share on revenues of $5.285 billion for the quarter ended June 30, 2007. For its 2006 fiscal third quarter, Apple earned 54 cents a share and tallied $4.37 billion in sales.
Apple earnings preview

The estimate was for earnings of .72 cents per share, the actual (as ort888 posted) was much higher, .92 cents. So, estimating is a tough science. If AAPL stock got clipped because of a faulty numbers picture from ATT, it will go higher. But even if the ATT number is right, there are a lot of things going well.
     
icruise
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Jul 25, 2007, 05:15 PM
 
So they didn't give any concrete iPhone sales numbers?

EDIT: Answering my own question: 270,000 iPhones sold.
     
vln2  (op)
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Jul 25, 2007, 05:32 PM
 
Originally Posted by Sherman Homan View Post
From earlier today:

According to the consensus of analysts surveyed by financial research firm Thomson First Call, Apple is expected to report earnings of 72 cents a share on revenues of $5.285 billion for the quarter ended June 30, 2007. For its 2006 fiscal third quarter, Apple earned 54 cents a share and tallied $4.37 billion in sales.
Apple earnings preview

The estimate was for earnings of .72 cents per share, the actual (as ort888 posted) was much higher, .92 cents. So, estimating is a tough science. If AAPL stock got clipped because of a faulty numbers picture from ATT, it will go higher. But even if the ATT number is right, there are a lot of things going well.
This is very good news on Apple, now Reuters talked about 270,000 iPhones sold. They also say that the iPhone impact on Apple results will be limited because it will be booked as subscription revenue over two years. It is obvious that the number of those who purchased the iPhone and did not activate it immediately was larger. On June 29th when I was waiting to buy mine I would say 20% of those waiting were going to sell it. Some were hoping for quick unlock. It is amazing to read so many stories on Internet about those who keep trying not to activate the phone.
     
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Jul 25, 2007, 05:44 PM
 
Give it some time...
     
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Jul 25, 2007, 05:48 PM
 
AAPL is up to $143 in after-hours trading.

This news, while not up to the hype (what ever is?), is great news. Too bad we have to wait another 3 months to hear how many iPhones were sold on July 1 (which we won't).

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Jul 25, 2007, 06:54 PM
 
[from icruise's link]270,000 iPhones sold, 146,000 iPhones activated.[/from icruise's link]

so there's 124,000 iphones gathering dust in someones house somewhere?
     
theDreamer
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Jul 25, 2007, 06:55 PM
 
Originally Posted by scaught View Post
[from icruise's link]270,000 iPhones sold, 146,000 iPhones activated.[/from icruise's link]

so there's 124,000 iphones gathering dust in someones house somewhere?
With the amount of people who waited to activate (had 14 days I believe), and those who had problems within the first 30 hours are not included in the quarterly report. While both of those numbers are a minority, they still add up to a good amount, and also the ones sold on eBay.
     
analogika
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Jul 25, 2007, 06:58 PM
 
Originally Posted by scaught View Post
[from icruise's link]270,000 iPhones sold, 146,000 iPhones activated.[/from icruise's link]

so there's 124,000 iphones gathering dust in someones house somewhere?
Within the first THIRTY HOURS of the iPhone going on sale. The quarter ended then.
     
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Jul 25, 2007, 07:14 PM
 
Thats actually quite impressive for less than 2 days of sales, and I know from experience that it wasn't easy finding one even two weeks afterwards.
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Simon
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Jul 26, 2007, 03:02 AM
 
Originally Posted by Simon View Post
So let's assume that while 146k phones were activated in the first 30h roughly 220k (+50%) were actually sold but weren't activated (or couldn't be activated)....
So now that we have the actual sales numbers, I realize my original estimate was actually to modest. Take the actually sold 270,000 iPhones, scale the number for the entire weekend, and there you go: 486,000 iPhones sold the first weekend. No wonder Apple anticipates easily reaching the first million by September.

Also did anybody else notice the comment about how AT&T sold more iPhones in the first two days (of which one only started at 6pm) than of any other handset they ever sold during the first month!
     
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Jul 26, 2007, 10:10 AM
 
Originally Posted by Simon View Post
Also did anybody else notice the comment about how AT&T sold more iPhones in the first two days (of which one only started at 6pm) than of any other handset they ever sold during the first month!
I'm glad someone else noticed that. That's an impressive sales number right there, although a more impressive number will be when the amount of iPhones start approaching the iPod levels.

I'd be curious to see how iPhone sales stack up to other smart phones in the long run. I doubt the iPhone will see the kind of volume a phone like the RAZR has sold, but I'm betting it can own a good percentage of the smart phone market.
     
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Jul 26, 2007, 12:14 PM
 
Apple will also get a surge in iPhone sales when they start releasing them in other countries.
     
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Jul 26, 2007, 12:16 PM
 
Originally Posted by ::maroma:: View Post
Apple will also get a surge in iPhone sales when they start releasing them in other countries.
That and I am sure some people are waiting for that first software update to see what exactly they do and if they add any of those "missing" features that some want.
     
icruise
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Jul 26, 2007, 12:18 PM
 
This just goes to show how ludicrous the reports of Apple having 3 million iPhones available on launch day were.
     
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Jul 26, 2007, 02:01 PM
 
Originally Posted by icruise View Post
This just goes to show how ludicrous the reports of Apple having 3 million iPhones available on launch day were.
And how bad the 'experts' were at predicting first day sales.

Although I will be very interested to see a total number for the whole weekend. I was able to walk into the Lenox store Saturday morning and pick one up without problem. Later in the week, that wasn't possible. So they did move a fair amount of units, I'd think.
     
   
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