[kman42]

There seems to be a lot of complaining about the iPad not having multitasking, but this seems premature to me. Apple will be introducing iPhone 4.0 in March for the June release of the next iPhone. Speculation and logic both point to 4.0 getting some type of multitasking.

The iPad is currently running 3.2. When Apple intros 4.0 for the iPhone, the Touch and the iPad will also get it.

My guess is that Apple wants to get the iPad SDK into devs hands so they can start making full screen apps that take advantage of the new menus, etc. The underlying changes to the OS coming in 4.0, including multitasking and a new notification system (a boy can dream) won't require devs to make many adjustments.

Apple probably wants to keep the three devices on the same basic OS revisions and they want that revision to come once a year. They weren't going to tip their hand if they didn't need to.

So, in the March timeframe, Apple will announce the new iPhone OS 4.0 SDK for release in June/July with the new iPhone hardware. All three devices, iPhones, Touches, and iPads, will get updates.

Thoughts?

kman

[turtle777]

Thought ?

You are right. This is pretty much a done deal.

-t

[The Final Dakar]

Speaking of 4.0-- pay update for the iPad?

Edit: Multi-tasking can't be assumed to be a done deal. After all it took them two years before they gave us something as obvious as copy & paste.

[MacinTommy]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

Edit: Multi-tasking can't be assumed to be a done deal. After all it took them two years before they gave us something as obvious as copy & paste.

And it was life changing IMHO.

[gooser]

somehow i feel people are going to be able to a lot more with the ipad than what's being speculating now.

[slugslugslug]

This seems pretty reasonable to me. But it also seems like people are talking about it like it's a done deal. I mean, I would imagine multitasking could come to an iPad update. But I wouldn't tell someone to buy one now if the lack of it is a dealbreaker. You just never know. Especially with Apple's penchant for trying to manage complexity in consumer devices.

[slugslugslug]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

Speaking of 4.0-- pay update for the iPad?

Edit: Multi-tasking can't be assumed to be a done deal. After all it took them two years before they gave us something as obvious as copy & paste.

If it comes out in June, I bet it's going to be free. IIRC correctly, changes to the accounting rules they use mean they can give free updates to iPod touch, and presumably iPad and AppleTV too.

Emphasis on "can", but: By WWDC (the logical time for them to announce an OS update), people will have had iPads in hand for < 3 months. They'll be pissed at Apple if they have to pay for things that "should have been there in the first place" on a newly-purchased device.

[boy8cookie]

They may be pissed, but they'll pay anyway; knowing this, why wouldn't Apple charge?

[slugslugslug]

Because they’ll want all the press for the first 6 months to be glowing. So if they can avoid a “disgruntled users paying early-adopter tax” story, it’s probably worth it.

[russellb]

One thing I noticed big time is that he never went into any detail about the OS running on the ipad or any system pref's etc. I think that is because they will WOW us when Iphone V4 OS comes out and exactly , that will have all the bells and whistles for the Ipad

[ajprice]

A plain Wifi iPad will probably be paid updates. Would the Wifi + 3G models get them free because of the mobile connection, as on the iPhone, even if its not a set contract, and is a rolling monthly connection as they said?

[slugslugslug]

Friendly wager, ajprice? My side: the update to 4.0 will be free for all iPad models if it’s released within 6 months of initial iPad availability.

I was gonna say the stakes could be the cost of the update, but then I wouldn’t win anything if I won…

[MacinTommy]

It would suck if they flipped the script and made iPhone owners pay and iPad owners got 4.0 free.

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by boy8cookie 

They may be pissed, but they'll pay anyway; knowing this, why wouldn't Apple charge?

Well, Apple did do that $100 rebate for early iPhone adopters, right? So no reason for that debacle to occur again.

I'm more interested to see if they drop the iPod Touch upgrade fee while they're at it. Even at $5, the adoption rate for OS 3 has been notoriously slow.

[Big Mac]

Has it been really slow? I've wondered about how many touch users keep them up to date.

[The Final Dakar]

I'll see if I can find the numbers I read a few months ago. It was well under 50%, IIRC.

[The Final Dakar]

Here we go: Nearly half the iPod touch users refuse to pay $5-$10 to update to iPhone OS 3.x – New Tech Gadgets & Electronic Devices | Geek.com

Not as bad as I remembered.

According to a Chitika Research survey, based on the sampling of traffic across its advertising network, 94.4 percent of iPhone owners run iPhone OS 3.x versus 55.24 percent of iPod touch owners who have the latest software. The online advertising firm said those numbers are even more indicative considering the fact that all iPod touch devices shipped over the past six months come with iPhone OS 3.0 preloaded. The figure also means that just 5.6 percent of iPhone folks are still on an older iPhone OS 2.x version versus 44.76 percent iPod touch owners.

[Eriamjh]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

Well, Apple did do that $100 rebate for early iPhone adopters, right? So no reason for that debacle to occur again.

I think the original iPhone price was so high to protect Apple from a poor sales start. When it was a hit and the volumes shot up, Apple realized they could cut the prices and still maintain margins.

I doubt the iPad is "overpriced" in the same manner. I'm sure Apple priced it to sell at fairly high volumes. At least, the $499 model, anyway. Maybe not the 64 GB $699/$829 model. 3G and 64GB of flash can't cost $200-$330 more than no 3G and 16GB!

[Simon]

This analyst estimates that the 16 GB iPad Wi-Fi costs Apple $291. That leaves a margin of 42%. Compared to Apple's average margins there doesn't appear to be that much wiggle room left. Maybe another $50. OTOH if component costs go down or manufacturing costs reduce with rising volume...

[JKT]

Astonishing, but I'd like to know how that analyst can possibly derive a BOM on a product when no one outside of Apple knows what's actually inside it? We don't even know how much RAM is in it or what the A4 chip comprises. I estimate that this analyst has only a 0.1% bigger clue about the actual material contents of an iPad than I do.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by JKT 

Astonishing, but I'd like to know how that analyst can possibly derive a BOM on a product when no one outside of Apple knows what's actually inside it?

Because those companies (like iSupply) do this for a living, they are experts at doing a BOM analysis.

Sure, they might be off by some, but their experience is going to give them a pretty good idea.

-t

[nonhuman]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

Speaking of 4.0-- pay update for the iPad?

Edit: Multi-tasking can't be assumed to be a done deal. After all it took them two years before they gave us something as obvious as copy & paste.

It may have taken them two years to implement copy & paste, but that's because they did it right. Have you used copy & paste on Android? It gets the job done, but the implementation sucks compared to the iPhone's.

[JKT]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

Because those companies (like iSupply) do this for a living, they are experts at doing a BOM analysis.

Sure, they might be off by some, but their experience is going to give them a pretty good idea.

-t

Yes, but they normally do it on products once they know what is inside them. What they are doing here is 50% educated guess work and 50% pure speculation.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by JKT 

Yes, but they normally do it on products once they know what is inside them. What they are doing here is 50% educated guess work and 50% pure speculation.

Sure, it might be off by some, but still.

They won't be off by $ 100.

-t

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by Simon 

This analyst estimates that the 16 GB iPad Wi-Fi costs Apple $291. That leaves a margin of 42%. Compared to Apple's average margins there doesn't appear to be that much wiggle room left.

Uhm, I think you (and that article) are comparing different margins.

The link you posted only calculates the BOM.
The "profit margin" they are talking about is NOT the normally published margins at Apple.

Sales - BOM = roughly CM (Contribution Margin).
(normally, the CM would include other variable cost like direct labor).

Apple normally provides only data on their Gross Margin (which is Sales - Variable Cost - Fixed Mfg. OH).

The expected GM for Q3/10 is 39%.

I agree with your conclusion that the iPad is priced very aggressively.
The $499 model will definitely eat into the overall GM.

-t

[glideslope]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

Speaking of 4.0-- pay update for the iPad?

Edit: Multi-tasking can't be assumed to be a done deal. After all it took them two years before they gave us something as obvious as copy & paste.

It's all about power management. The A4 is a multicore chip. OS 4.0 will allow multitasking. The tweaks will be in time for iPhone Gen 4 with the A4. Done deal. Can't put it off like copy and paste. Too many competitors. It is currently a state of e-war on several fronts.

[Simon]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

The link you posted only calculates the BOM.

No, actually it's more than that. He puts the materials at $260.50. Then he assumes manufacturing costs will run $10 setting the BOM at $270.50. But on top of that he ads another $20 he claims Apple will need to set aside for service costs. That brings him to a total "cost" of $290.50. And that leaves a "margin" of $208.50 or 41.8%.

Now it's fairly obvious to anybody who has the slightest clue about business that that's not the same "margin" figure as the gross margin figure Apple posts at the end of the quarter. But it is an upper limit for the latter. IOW if the analysis were correct Apple's gross margin for this device would end up having to be below 42%.

Now since that figure is surprisingly close to their gross margins I conclude they don't have much wiggle room. Of course that analysis might be off. And of course the BOM will change when volume production ramps up and component prices fall. But bottom line is that iPhone-esque $200 discounts a few months from now are most likely not going to happen.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by Simon 

No, actually it's more than that. He puts the materials at $260.50. Then he assumes manufacturing costs will run $10 setting the BOM at $270.50.

You are right, I overlooked the $ 10. Weird though that he still refers to it as the BOM.

At any rate, your conclusion that there's not much wiggle room is right.

-t

[Simon]

I agree, the wording is a bit strange.

Anyway, we'll have to see what iSuppli et al. come up with when they actually get to tear an iPad apart. That will still include some guesswork (the A4 for example), but it should give us a more accurate picture of the actual iPad BOM and margins.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by Simon 

Anyway, we'll have to see what iSuppli et al. come up with when they actually get to tear an iPad apart. That will still include some guesswork (the A4 for example), but it should give us a more accurate picture of the actual iPad BOM and margins.

The A4 will actually be cheaper than similar chips, since Apple will have it made by some chip maker, but doesn't have to pay for the R&D, IP and excessive SG&A and Profit.

Basically, by using the A4, their cost structure will shift from variable (BOM) to Fixed (below Gross Margin), but they will reap the benefits once they ship in greater numbers.

In a sense, this is negative in the beginning, because Apple has to cover the extra R&D for the P.A. Semi group, the iPad would need to bring in a HIGHER GM that an iPhone with stock silicone.

-t

[macs4all]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

Because those companies (like iSupply) do this for a living, they are experts at doing a BOM analysis.

Sure, they might be off by some, but their experience is going to give them a pretty good idea.

-t

Considering that the CUSTOM A4 SoC's cost CANNOT be known (or really even guessed closely), and considering that the A4 likely comprises some fairly significant percentage of the overall BOM cost, iSupply and others' cost estimates will not be nearly as accurate as those where off-the-shelf components are used.

This isn't a custom sound chip or even a custom graphics chip we're talking about here; but a highly integrated System-on-Chip, comprising a top-of-the-line Cortex A4 cpu core, some unknown custom GPU, memory management, and WHO-KNOWS-WHAT-ELSE.

But, all this b.s. speculation regarding the "cost" of the iPad completely disregards all the ancillary costs that are "rolled up" into the TOTAL cost of each unit. And that's what really makes me mad about "The iPad cost is X" stuff. It is nothing more than idle speculation. And is likely to remain so, as the cost of the A4 is likely to remain secret for quite some time (since it only is known to Apple and whoever the fab-house is for the A4 chip).

[analogue SPRINKLES]

I totally agree with you and think/hope this is what will happen.

I also think Apple needs to come up with proper branding for the OS.

Calling it iPhone OS 3.2 for iPad and iPod touch seems stupid to me.

They need to call it "OS X Mobile 4.0" or something.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by macs4all 

Considering that the CUSTOM A4 SoC's cost CANNOT be known (or really even guessed closely), and considering that the A4 likely comprises some fairly significant percentage of the overall BOM cost, iSupply and others' cost estimates will not be nearly as accurate as those where off-the-shelf components are used.

How do you know ? Are you an expert ?

I think the mfg. cost of the A4 can be fairly accurately estimated.

The chip's uniqueness is NOT in its BOM and mfg. process, it's the design, layout, IP and R&D.
That stuff is NOT rolled into the BOM, since Apple designs the chip and then has someone contract manufacture it. The cost of just making the chip depends on certain known variables, like cost of bare dies, mfg. processes, size of chip, yield etc.
All that can be fairly accurately estimated by someone who worked in the chip making industry.

-t

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by nonhuman 

It may have taken them two years to implement copy & paste, but that's because they did it right. Have you used copy & paste on Android? It gets the job done, but the implementation sucks compared to the iPhone's.

I totally agree with you, it was worth the wait.

Glad they didn't just throw it out there for everyone to get a bad impression of only to have to retrain everyone 2 years later on the "new copy/paste".

I hope when apple does add multitasking it is totally seamless. I don't ever want to be told I have too many apps open, manually tell it to run in the background, go to a task manager and quit apps one by one.

They just should add some API that is intelligent enough to know when to use push and when it NEEDS to run in the background. One of the few examples I can think of is internet radio and perhaps google voice.

For the iPad rather than always having apps all over the screen such as weather and stocks a "dashboard" with 10 things you need once and a while" can just overlap any running app.

For things like skype a push notification when you get a call will do just fine as you can launch the app when it happens.

No way in hell do I want to explain to my mom how to multitask and not to leave too much running on her iPhone.

[Spheric Harlot]

Originally Posted by nonhuman 

It may have taken them two years to implement copy & paste, but that's because they did it right. Have you used copy & paste on Android? It gets the job done, but the implementation sucks compared to the iPhone's.

And that's even though Apple's implementation is actually *broken*!

There's two different ways of copy-and-pasting: double-tap, and tap-and-hold (in those apps where double-tap was already assigned to zooming in/selecting a chunk of layout).

They are not really used interchangeably, and make for pretty easy yet slightly fumbly and occasionally intrusive interface.

IOW: broken at a fundamental level.

And STILL so much better than anything else out there.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by Spheric Harlot 

And that's even though Apple's implementation is actually *broken*!

There's two different ways of copy-and-pasting: double-tap, and tap-and-hold (in those apps where double-tap was already assigned to zooming in/selecting a chunk of layout).

I know what you mean but that little magnify glass for half a second doesn't bother me much.

The copy/paste on iPHone is also great because it keeps the styles and cells not just text.

[ilovemymac]

i'm just hoping for Flash and multitasking in version 4.0 ! I mean the A4 chip is powerful enough to handle it all, its just about software implementation. Come on Apple !

[Simon]

Flash is just not going to happen.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by ilovemymac 

i'm just hoping for Flash and multitasking in version 4.0 ! I mean the A4 chip is powerful enough to handle it all, its just about software implementation. Come on Apple !

THe problem is not that the iPhone CPU can't handle it. The problem is Flash is poorly written so it uses a ton of that CPU and kills the battery.

You got a better chance of getting a hoverboard than Flash on the iPad.

[amazing]

here's something about how flash kills the battery on a Nexus one

MacDailyNews - Watch Adobe's Flash Player 10.1 kill Google's Nexus One's battery (with video)

[Big Mac]

Originally Posted by ilovemymac 

i'm just hoping for Flash and multitasking in version 4.0 ! I mean the A4 chip is powerful enough to handle it all, its just about software implementation. Come on Apple !

I hope you're a troll.

[ilovemymac]

well, then i really hope all the video steaming companies start coding in html5 then !

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by ilovemymac 

well, then i really hope all the video steaming companies start coding in html5 then !

Start? You're either a troll or clueless right?

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by amazing 

here's something about how flash kills the battery on a Nexus one

MacDailyNews - Watch Adobe's Flash Player 10.1 kill Google's Nexus One's battery (with video)

The guys in the video are actually trying to say that it is a compilation of 2 hours of flash footage that's why it drains so fast. What they didn't figure is that the clock on the nexus shows them starting at 4:00PM and by 4:06 the battery dropped by 25%.

[turtle777]

Maybe it was 24 hours of Flash playing

-t

[P]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

Start? You're either a troll or clueless right?

Youtube has a beta version that uses HTML5 <video> and has a special version for the iPhone, but there are many sites that are still only available with Flash video. HTML5 is seriously hurt by the split from the Theora vs. H.264 codec debate - I doubt many will implement it before that has been settled somehow.

Note that it is reasonably easy to encode the video using x264, offer it using the <video> tag and then have a Flash player that loads the same file as a fallback for users that don't have a modern browser. Theora can't do that, and that paired with the lower quality is likely enough to disqualify it, even if FF refuses to support H.264. Google now owns On2, and the VP8 codec might be a reasonable compromise, but it has serious problems in the short run.

This piece offers some insightful analysis on the topic.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

I'm getting nervous that the iPad is shipping soon and still no peep about OS4.0.

I think they know it will sell as is with 3.2 so in July the OS 4.0 will be seen as gravy when it comes.

Then again it seems strange they would market it with 3.2 and 2 months later add all sorts of amazing new features with 4.0 that confuses consumers.

[imitchellg5]

I'm sure we'll hear about it at WWDC. It's not like a 4.0 arrival date is set in stone...

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by imitchellg5 

I'm sure we'll hear about it at WWDC. It's not like a 4.0 arrival date is set in stone...

I would think the new iPhone that they MUST be coming out in July with would have 4.0.

[kman42]

My guess is that they will wait to announce the new iphones until after the iPad is shipping. Then they'll give devs three months with the SDK. Maybe the new iPhones won't ship until Aug/Sept this year.