[Spliffdaddy]

GOP will lose 6 seats in House & 2 in Senate.

Lieberman will be the only 'Independent' candidate to win election.

Unprecedented Republican turnout on election day will spell defeat for the expected "Democratic takeover".

Widescale whining about voter fraud, disenfranchisement, and 'hacked' electronic voting machines. ONLY in precincts where Democrats were ahead in the polls leading up to the election.

My opinions are based on decades of watching polling results be proven wrong in every election. Unless Democrat is ahead by 9+ points in the polls, the Republican will usually win.

I'll be lounging on a cruise ship for a while. Should be back in the states on November 12th. Not sure how much election info I'll have access to - so it'll be a surprise for me when I return.

Make me proud. Post your prediction along with a brief explanation so we can compare it with the official results.

I'm leaving besson3c in charge while I'm away. Since he's both Canadian and American. And he plays the saxophone, I think. I've been to Canada and I used to play the sax, so he's a good replacement for the Spliffster.

Time to don my pimp hat and show Holland America Lines what a drunk redneck looks like.

[Mithras]

Six in the house? You're whistling past the graveyard, friend.

[subego]

I'll agree with your overall assessment, I'd just change the numbers a bit. I'll say double your loss numbers (12 and 4) and lower the estimate of the Republican's "ground game" down to 6%.

I'll also add that some of the House changes will include some upsets in "safe" districts no one has ever heard of.

[production_coordinator]

IMHO, most of the polls that are slightly pointing democratic will close on the side of the republicans.

It's one thing to say you are going to vote, it's another to actually show up and vote.

[BRussell]

Democrats take 25 house seats, 4 senate seats (RI, Montana, PA, Ohio). I'm hoping for 35 House seats and Senate wins for Democrats in Virginia and Missouri too, but it may not happen.

[Krusty]

I tend to agee that the Democratic gains will not be as great as is being predicted but for slightly more cynical reasons than given above:

1) The Repbulican voting machine includes a highly organized and effective apparatus for challenging votes and voters ... successfully removing likely Democratic voters from the rolls in key states. Both parties do it ... the Republicans are more tenacious at it.

2) Gerrymandering (the redrawing of districts to favor a partcular party by giving one party slight majorities in many districts and concentrating the opponent's supporters into fewer districts that are heavily supportive of the opponent candidates). Again, both parties do this when they have the opportunity but it is the Repbulicans that have had this opportunity since about 1994 and they've used it heavily to their advantage. Its one of the quirks of our electoral college system that a person can recieve a greater percentage of the popular vote while still losing the election (Gore had greater popular support in 2000 than Bush). This works to the advantage of the incumbent majority and is part of what screws up pre-election polls which measure pure popular support ... especially in Senatorial and Presidential votes. Advantage Republicans

3) Maker of voter apparatus (Diebold, etc.) are heavily Republican. I'm not saying they're going to rig the vote but I am saying they will certainly be more inclined to investigate possible problems with their machines if the election results don't favor their candidates. As far back as 2003 the president of Diebold notoriously promised "to deliver Ohio" for the president in the following year's election. Diebold Voting Machine Owner Committed To Give Votes To Bush in 2004 I'm not saying there will be vote rigging, I'm saying that IF there is any, it will be in favor of the Republicans. Lets just say it definitely won't be a disadvantage to Republicans if any anomalies do occur. Tie goes to the runner and the runner in this case in the incumbent party.

4) Similar to 3. The people overseeing elections and making legal determinations on recounts etc. are largely political appointees of the incumbent party. Anything close enough to need a judgement made will likely have a staunch supporter of the incumbent party making that judgement. Again, advantage Republicans in this case.

All in all, with the exception of item 1 which is an area where Republicans just plain better at it, the current political system generally favors people in party currently in power. The Democrats proved that by tenaciously hanging on to congressional majorities through decades of Repbulican presidents. The Republicans are having their turn at it now. It takes more that a scant majority to oust the ruling party and the next time Democrats succeed in doing it they will methodically install their own monolith of "advantages" to help them keep that power as well.

[Nicko]

I would never predict the outcome, but I have a mental image of Kerry drowning himself in a bathtub full of ketchup.

[davesimondotcom]

Originally Posted by BRussell 

Democrats take 25 house seats, 4 senate seats (RI, Montana, PA, Ohio). I'm hoping for 35 House seats and Senate wins for Democrats in Virginia and Missouri too, but it may not happen.

You really think Tester will beat Burns? I'm voting for "none of the above" since I can't stand Burns but Tester hasn't really earned my vote, either.

Burns has the momentum, though, and on election day, you know the good ol' boys are going to turn out to vote for ol' Conrad.

[Rumor]

The Govenator will be re-elected.

[Dork.]

I predict a 50/50 split in the Senate, and a one-vote majority for the Democrats in the House.

Just because that will make the next two years a lot more entertaining.

[subego]

Originally Posted by Dork. 

Just because that will make the next two years a lot more entertaining.

There's a local reporter here who has stated he votes for whomever will make his job the most "interesting".

Knowing this guy, I would say that though it seems irresponsible, it's more of a reflection of him maintaining his neutrality, and hence his journalistic integrity.

[Doofy]

Most accurate prediction: Loads of Dems running around with their arms in the air screaming "black, black, black!" 'coz it wasn't the result they'd hoped for.

[BRussell]

Originally Posted by davesimondotcom 

You really think Tester will beat Burns? I'm voting for "none of the above" since I can't stand Burns but Tester hasn't really earned my vote, either.

Burns has the momentum, though, and on election day, you know the good ol' boys are going to turn out to vote for ol' Conrad.

Yeah I think Tester will win. He's been up in, I believe, every single survey since the primaries. You just can't beat that kind of consistency, I don't think. The only hope for Republicans (in general, not just Montana) is that there's some kind of underestimate of Republican turnout, but there's really nothing to suggest that except hope.

[davesimondotcom]

Originally Posted by BRussell 

Yeah I think Tester will win. He's been up in, I believe, every single survey since the primaries. You just can't beat that kind of consistency, I don't think. The only hope for Republicans (in general, not just Montana) is that there's some kind of underestimate of Republican turnout, but there's really nothing to suggest that except hope.

I think it will be close but Burns will win. It's very similar to when Schweitzer ran against him.

The polls I've seen have them at virtually a dead heat with Tester in a slight lead. But Burns has closed about 4 points in the last couple weeks.

Should be interesting.

I'm pretty sure Stan Jones won't win.

[BRussell]

Originally Posted by davesimondotcom 

I think it will be close but Burns will win. It's very similar to when Schweitzer ran against him.

The polls I've seen have them at virtually a dead heat with Tester in a slight lead. But Burns has closed about 4 points in the last couple weeks.

It definitely is close. But was Schwietzer up in the polls like Tester is now? I thought it might have been Schweitzer who closed in at the end of the race, rather than Burns, but I really don't remember for sure.

[davesimondotcom]

Originally Posted by BRussell 

It definitely is close. But was Schwietzer up in the polls like Tester is now? I thought it might have been Schweitzer who closed in at the end of the race, rather than Burns, but I really don't remember for sure.

I'm not sure what will happen. And really, I wouldn't mind Conrad getting the boot.

If I were the Tester campaign, I'd do an ad like this:

Pick and choose some of the most offensive things Burns has said over the years he's been a Senator. The "raghead" comment and such. Not in context. Just have someone using the same words.

Then just say, "If you are offended by hearing these words on the air, why would you want your representative in Washington using them?"

I mean, that's really where I get the most pissed off at Conrad. His racist comments make all of us in Montana look like hick racists. And we aren't.

[Mithras]

Oh man, I just watched the Conrad Burns video about "We're not gonna tell you what our plan is to win in Iraq. That guy is unbelievable.

[BRussell]

Originally Posted by Mithras 

Oh man, I just watched the Conrad Burns video about "We're not gonna tell you what our plan is to win in Iraq. That guy is unbelievable.

I was at that debate. The audience was just laughing at him with ridicule, and I don't even think he was aware of it. My wife's first comment was "that will be on the Daily Show." It was, a few days ago.

[davesimondotcom]

Originally Posted by Mithras 

Oh man, I just watched the Conrad Burns video about "We're not gonna tell you what our plan is to win in Iraq. That guy is unbelievable.

Try meeting the bombastic, glad-handing, fake-smiling, fast-talking former auctioneer Senator in person.

[Volanges]

The lauded GOTV apparatus in the GOP is *only* good where it's been organized, and they need something like three months to do that. Now think of all the wild poll numbers in the last three months and how many races have opened up. I mean come on... the GOP is defending their one House seat in WYOMING. ha ha ha There are TONS of races where their GOTV will fall FAR short of having ANY effect at all. The Dems on the other hand have had a 50-state effort from the beginning, fielding candidates AND a GOTV for each.

Dems pick up 25 House seats; 5 Senate seats

[smacintush]

Originally Posted by Volanges 

Dems pick up 25 House seats; 5 Senate seats

Pipe dream.

[Volanges]

Originally Posted by smacintush 

Pipe dream.

Fascinating analysis. Looks like I touched a nerve there. Sorry, I will try to be more sensitive to your needs in the future.

Then again I'm sure you think the insurgency is in its last throes.

I forgot to add the seven seats in the gubernatorial contests Democrats will pick up.

[BRussell]

Originally Posted by smacintush 

Pipe dream.

That's in the middle to even on the low end of most of the professional political projections.

[The Left]

replay of 1994 in reverse, gain of approx 50-60 (at least 40) seats in the house for the Democrats and a narrow recapture of the Senate (finally!!!!!!!!!)

yeay!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[smacintush]

Originally Posted by Volanges 

Fascinating analysis. Looks like I touched a nerve there. Sorry, I will try to be more sensitive to your needs in the future.

Then again I'm sure you think the insurgency is in its last throes.

I forgot to add the seven seats in the gubernatorial contests Democrats will pick up.

Wow. You read a lot into those two words. Seems as though I'm the one who touched a nerve…

[smacintush]

Originally Posted by BRussell 

That's in the middle to even on the low end of most of the professional political projections.

Only a few days until we find out.

Just to be clear, (are you reading this Volanges?) I'm in the camp that a mixed government is a good thing. I don't want the left wing of the Democratic party in charge of the House, Senate and White House any more than you want those controlled by the right, but IMO a mixed government is a good thing.

I just don't think that it will happen. I think the Dems will pick up seats but they won't gain control of either house.

But hey, I've been wong before.

Besides, I haven't seen any RELIABLE projection that even comes close to that. More like a 16 seat pick-up in the house.

I say a Dem pick-up of 10 and 3

[voodoo]

Prediction: I won't care either way.

V

[BRussell]

Originally Posted by smacintush 

Besides, I haven't seen any RELIABLE projection that even comes close to that. More like a 16 seat pick-up in the house.

I say a Dem pick-up of 10 and 3

Hmmm? No neutral political analyst (i.e., not including partisan political types trying to spin their projections) is predicting less than a 20 seat pick-up by Democrats. And how do you know how reliable the projections are before the election happens?

Here are Stuart Rotherberg's projections, currently 6 seats for Dems in the Senate and 34-40 in the House, and here are Charlie Cook's projections, a minimum of 20-25 pickups for Dems in the House and 4-5 in the Senate.

I don't know, they could be wrong, but those are pretty much the middle-of-the-road projections right now.

[smacintush]

Hmmm…maybe the Dems have "peaked" too soon? (as usual)

A Democratic advantage of 23 percentage points a month ago and 13 points two weeks ago is now down to 7.

Too bad it'll take weeks to know the TRUE results after all the lawsuits that'll be filed.

[TheWOAT]

I care more about the CA Propositions than the candidates. It would be nice to have any sort of excuse to vote against Feinstein...

As for nationally, I expect both party chairmans to proclaim victory.

[itai195]

Really? I hate propositions... I would like to see a good candidate go up against Feinstein one of these days.

My prediction for the 2006 election: Arnie will be reelected and my wife won't bother to vote.

[TheWOAT]

Well I hate that propositions seem to have an alterior motive or will be our demise. Prop 86 and 87 seem like BS to me, yet will probably get passed based on how good they make people feel about their vote making a difference... In reality, these propositions suck.

Arnold is running unopposed. I think Gary Coleman caused a bigger blip on the political radar in the recall election than ...uhh... what was his name again?

[itai195]

Dracula?

I'd say that I vote no on at least 75% of propositions. That system is too easily manipulated by special interests with deep pockets.

[TheWOAT]

Most union groups and other democratic interests chose Dracula over Steve Wesley...WHY???

Those commercials with Bill Clinton showing baby images and telling us to vote Yes on Prop 87 really piss me off. But showing baby pictures must be a sign of desperation and that the propisition is in danger of failing

[kobi]

The Dems will pick up 25-30 seats in the House. 6-8 Seats in the Senate.

That's a modest prediction.

I can't wait to see the clean-up once the Dems have control again.

The DOJ is going to be very busy with all the indictments that will be issued.

Who do you think will be first George? or Donald? or Dick?

My prediction is Rumsfeld first, Chaney next then Georgie.

[Mithras]

What? 6-8 in the Senate? That's a pipe dream.
Put my money on +15 in the House, +3 in the Senate. I hope for more, but I think that's a good baseline.

[The Left]

can't wait for the impeachment to begin!!!!!!!!!!!!

[kobi]

Originally Posted by The Left
can't wait for the impeachment to begin!!!!!!!!!!!!

Too bad Georgie can't pardon himself. lol

That's going to be a happy day.

[davesimondotcom]

Originally Posted by The Left 

can't wait for the impeachment to begin!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yep, just what the country needs, to be further torn in two.

I'd rather Democrat control of the House and Senate result in the two parties working better with one another.

After all, isn't it the Democrats who accuse George W. Bush of being "divisive?"

[voodoo]

Originally Posted by davesimondotcom 

After all, isn't it the Democrats who accuse George W. Bush of being "divisive?"

No, I accuse him of that too.

V

[DLQ2006]

I wonder which party these folks will be voting for tomorrow.

Ward Churchill's second San Francisco appearance was at the Bay Area ...
Ward Churchill at Anarchist Bookfair, March 26, 2005 - 14k - Cached - Similar pages

[BRussell]

Originally Posted by davesimondotcom 

Yep, just what the country needs, to be further torn in two.

I'd rather Democrat control of the House and Senate result in the two parties working better with one another.

After all, isn't it the Democrats who accuse George W. Bush of being "divisive?"

"The Left" is clearly a troll, a conservative caricaturing liberals.

[stupendousman]

Originally Posted by Mithras 

What? 6-8 in the Senate? That's a pipe dream.
Put my money on +15 in the House, +3 in the Senate. I hope for more, but I think that's a good baseline.

I agree...that's a pretty good baseline. Republicans always seem to POLL low pre-election. It's why no one ever saw the blow-out in 94'...why Bush was predicted to lose both elections, ect.

The Dems will gain, but probably just under what they need. They SHOULD have a major blowout if you believe the pollsters and history, unless you (like myself) believe that the Democrat's shift to the left has caused them more damage than they (and the media) realize.

We will see.

[BRussell]

Originally Posted by stupendousman 

I agree...that's a pretty good baseline. Republicans always seem to POLL low pre-election. It's why no one ever saw the blow-out in 94'...why Bush was predicted to lose both elections, ect.

Hmm? Everyone saw the blowout in 1994. Bush was projected to win in 2000, but actually lost the popular vote. Bush was predicted to win by a couple points in 2004, and won by a couple points. There's no evidence of Republicans doing better than they poll.

[placebo1969]

Originally Posted by BRussell 

"The Left" is clearly a troll, a conservative caricaturing liberals.

Really? I'm not too sure.
You may be right, though. (How's that for hedging my bets?)

[ink]

My prediction: The Senate will be held by the Republicans, but the House will change parties. Lieberman may have a LOT of power in the new Senate -- but that's only an outside chance because I think the GOP will still have a 50% margin.

[Dork.]

Originally Posted by ink 

My prediction: The Senate will be held by the Republicans, but the House will change parties. Lieberman may have a LOT of power in the new Senate -- but that's only an outside chance because I think the GOP will still have a 50% margin.

How about this one: if the Senate ends up with 50 Dems/49 Reps/ 1 Independant, willl Lieberman change his mind and caucus with the Republicans?

[Rumor]

I've got six votes for myself so far for being the Gov of California.

[ink]

Originally Posted by davesimondotcom 

Yep, just what the country needs, to be further torn in two.

I'd rather Democrat control of the House and Senate result in the two parties working better with one another.

After all, isn't it the Democrats who accuse George W. Bush of being "divisive?"

If the Democrats play the same silly game that the Republicans did with Clinton, it'll be the voters who will turn them both out in 2008.

Assuming they take both houses, which I doubt...

[smacintush]

Originally Posted by kobi 

The Dems will pick up 25-30 seats in the House. 6-8 Seats in the Senate.

That's a modest prediction.

I can't wait to see the clean-up once the Dems have control again.

The DOJ is going to be very busy with all the indictments that will be issued.

Who do you think will be first George? or Donald? or Dick?

My prediction is Rumsfeld first, Chaney next then Georgie.

You are in for a disappointment.