[The Final Dakar]

So, how far is he gonna get? Primaries are getting close now.

[subego]

No ****ing clue. There's no precedent to base a prediction on.

[OAW]

The thing to remember is that national polls mean nothing. The nomination is won state by state. And thus far he's pretty far behind in Iowa and New Hampshire. If he loses either of those it'll be am entirely new dynamic.

OAW

[Waragainstsleep]

You could do worse than rounding up all the Trump supporters and putting them in camps.

[subego]

That's just weird.

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by subego 

No ****ing clue. There's no precedent to base a prediction on.

This is the right answer.

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by OAW 

The thing to remember is that national polls mean nothing. The nomination is won state by state. And thus far he's pretty far behind in Iowa and New Hampshire. If he loses either of those it'll be am entirely new dynamic.

OAW

You might wanna check again. Trump leads those states in aggregate.

[Chongo]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

So, how far is he gonna get? Primaries are getting close now.

Originally Posted by subego 

No ****ing clue. There's no precedent to base a prediction on.

Howard Dean? Aaaaaaaaah!

[subego]

I feel like Trump would have to go "niggAHHHHHHHHHHH" for him to have a Howard Dean moment.

And even that might only drop him a point or two.

[Chongo]

Originally Posted by subego 

I feel like Trump would have to go "niggAHHHHHHHHHHH" for him to have a Howard Dean moment.

And even that might only drop him a point or two.

The scream came after he lost in Iowa, He finished third.


How Donald Trump’s poll lead compares to past frontrunners who ended up losing - Vox

[subego]

I only saw a sliver of the debate, and that sliver was Trump getting booed.

I predict the narrative being this debate was the moment he hit the wall.

[subego]

Seeing some discussion, the opinion seemed to be he recovered well from it, so maybe not.

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by Chongo 

Trump falls to second in NYT/CBS news poll
Election 2016: CBS/NYT Poll: Ben Carson edges out Donald Trump - CBS News

I think your dream is dead. Carson has fallen to fourth nationally. A surprising amount of his supporters have gone to Trump, but in Iowa it looks like Cruz is the new evangelical favorite. You on board the Cruz Missile, chongo ?

[subego]

[BadKosh]

Ebb and flow. It really is too early yet.

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by BadKosh 

Ebb and flow. It really is too early yet.

For Carson? I'd be curious to see any past examples of someone pulling it off. He's been in almost perpetual polling decline for a near two months. His poll numbers have dropped to a quarter of their high. They're almost to pre-august levels. Trump and Cruz have eaten up his supporters. He. Is. Done.

[subego]

Schlonged!

[BadKosh]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

For Carson? I'd be curious to see any past examples of someone pulling it off. He's been in almost perpetual polling decline for a near two months. His poll numbers have dropped to a quarter of their high. They're almost to pre-august levels. Trump and Cruz have eaten up his supporters. He. Is. Done.

Just in general. I think all will go up and down in the polls according to events and the candidates reactions/comments on them.

I was astonished that CNN says Clintons Trump comments were probably just grasping at straws. REAL EXPERTS on the various news shows have said that Clinton and Obama's face is in their PR recruitment stuff, but ISIS doesn't recruit members that way.
Where are the video's proving Clinton was right? Looks like more fabricated talking points, or LIES.

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by subego 

Schlonged!

Yeah, I don't get that. Like is he censoring the term dicked? That doesn't make sense either, though I assume it's an alternative way to say ****ed, though he could just say screwed.

Looking forward to him combining his greatest hits into "Hilary got schlonged like a dog."

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by BadKosh 

Just in general. I think all will go up and down in the polls according to events and the candidates reactions/comments on them.

That's a bold prediction, Cotton.

[subego]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

Yeah, I don't get that. Like is he censoring the term dicked? That doesn't make sense either, though I assume it's an alternative way to say ****ed, though he could just say screwed.

Looking forward to him combining his greatest hits into "Hilary got schlonged like a dog."

The Reddit explanation is it's a New York thing.

[The Final Dakar]

Does it define it for us? Who do I have stay in the dark about it, like a dog?

[subego]

You had the right idea...

To get dicked over, or ****ed, in a business deal.

[The Final Dakar]

Well, schlong is a fun word to say, so I won't hold it against him like a dog.

[The Final Dakar]

Trump went birthed on Cruz. And so many people hate him that a few Republicans were like, "Yeah, he totally might not be eligible."

popcorn.gif

[The Final Dakar]

Hot take: since every 'bad' thing that Trump's done so far has raised his numbers, Palin's endorsement will conversely hurt him. /oppositegeorge

[andi*pandi]

Nope, Palin, just like the same other TeaParty convert stuff he's serving, will be eaten up by his fans.

[The Final Dakar]

We'll see andi!!!

In other news Nate Silver has finally come to grips with reality.

[P]

Not really. He notes that GOP bigwigs seem more concerned about Cruz than about Trump.

[Cap'n Tightpants]

Hillary is a pariah, a candidate of last resort (same as Trump). At least Bernie isn't part of the establishment, he's just a guy with poor fiscal sense.

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by P 

Not really. He notes that GOP bigwigs seem more concerned about Cruz than about Trump.

His schtick has been the party decides. And between Trump and Cruz, the party has turned on Cruz. It's fascinating.

[The Final Dakar]

So Trump is going to boycott the debate because he doesn't like the moderator. Amazingly petulant, however right he may be. It's not like the job of President would have to deal with anything this unfair...

[The Final Dakar]

Also, does this affect his numbers? (lol)

[The Final Dakar]

Any predictions on tonight? Do fox's numbers tank?

I think conventional logic would be abandoning a debate and opening yourself to what I imagine will be a veritable train of attacks without responding would be a bad thing, doubly so right before the primary. Or he might be avoiding the kitchen sink debate where the candidates make their last ditch effort to at least sent him.

All I know is his numbers in Iowa are still improving. But I've also seen that his results are highly dependent on a high turnout.

[Waragainstsleep]

Its a pity none of the others have decent PR people. Trump is clearly scared to mess with the skinny blonde girl again. Can't imagine his followers will like that.

[andi*pandi]

"Mr Putin wasn't a big enough suckup to me last time we met, so I'm going to blow off this international trade summit. Screw him."

-FutureTrump

[The Final Dakar]

It was a trap. Fox went Russert/Daily Show style and played videos of the candidates contradicting themselves. Trump has a god damn mole at Fox who tipped him off. It's amazing.

[BadKosh]

Seems Bernie Sanders has his folks LYING about being UNION members to get votes.
Democrats seem to lie as a matter of practice.

[Chongo]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

It was a trap. Fox went Russert/Daily Show style and played videos of the candidates contradicting themselves. Trump has a god damn mole at Fox who tipped him off. It's amazing.

That is exactly what I thought when I saw the clips.

[The Final Dakar]

By the way, it's the 21st century. We should be doing that at all the debates. Plus, it stops the "I never said that." BS

[The Final Dakar]

Showtime! Polls and predictors say it's going to be a narrow Trump win. The end times are nigh

[subego]

Nate is saying it's a slightly Trump skewed coin flip.

[The Final Dakar]

And my punditry gives Cruz an edge because Trump voters are 'new' voters. But Sam Wang seems to be leaning Trumps way too. And I assume both account for how likely the voters are.

[subego]

Unless I misunderstand you, Silver would say "huh?"

He has Trump 20 points over Cruz in probability.

He gives Trump a 54% chance of winning. He gives Cruz 33%.

[The Final Dakar]

Huh indeed. I didn't mention Nate in that last post.

[subego]

I'm saying Nate would look at your "Cruz has an edge" prediction and be utterly confused by it.

When you said "both", who's the not-Sam Wang person?

[The Final Dakar]

Well of course. I'm not a statistician running models. Just a pundit. I go by conclusions determined by common sense, general consensus, historical precedents, statistically unimportant coincidences, polls, and intuition. My opinion is worth zero.

But that won't stop be from bragging that I called it Trump actually goes to the nomination.

[The Final Dakar]

I forgot to mention Trumps favorables a with evangelicals has gone up in the past 4 months in what I can only assume is talking themselves into the front runner, because the guy is clearly irreligious.

[Chongo]

When the votes are completed, Trump may end up third.

[Chongo]

It looks like Andrew Breitbart may still have called this from the grave. Rubio will pick up the support from those who drop out.