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US Primary Season 2016: Come for the numbers, stay for the punditry (Page 3)
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P
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Feb 21, 2016, 03:02 PM
 
That has been my argument pretty much exactly, but right now it looks like Cruz is in it for the long haul, and in a three way race, Trump will win plurality. And that is very worrying, because if there is one guy I don't want to have a chance of sitting across the table from Putin, it is Trump.
The new Mac Pro has up to 30 MB of cache inside the processor itself. That's more than the HD in my first Mac. Somehow I'm still running out of space.
     
Hawkeye_a
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Feb 21, 2016, 04:41 PM
 
Originally Posted by P View Post
That has been my argument pretty much exactly, but right now it looks like Cruz is in it for the long haul, and in a three way race, Trump will win plurality. And that is very worrying, because if there is one guy I don't want to have a chance of sitting across the table from Putin, it is Trump.


What a difference 4 years makes.... Russia is on the warpath, Iraq has decended into chaos, Islamic terrorism is claiming thousands of lives, Iran gets to retain their nuclear tech with economic relief and advanced weaponry from Russia.

"Peace for our times" - Neville Chamberlain, 30 September 1938

Makes one wonder about the meaning of the word "legacy".
( Last edited by Hawkeye_a; Feb 21, 2016 at 04:53 PM. )
     
Chongo
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Feb 21, 2016, 11:24 PM
 
Originally Posted by Hawkeye_a View Post


What a difference 4 years makes.... Russia is on the warpath, Iraq has decended into chaos, Islamic terrorism is claiming thousands of lives, Iran gets to retain their nuclear tech with economic relief and advanced weaponry from Russia.

"Peace for our times" - Neville Chamberlain, 30 September 1938

Makes one wonder about the meaning of the word "legacy".
The settlement of the nuclear testing problem, which has now been achieved is, in my view, only the prelude to a larger settlement in which all the Middle East may find peace. This morning I had another talk with the Iranian leader, Herr Khamani, and here is the paper which bears his name upon it as well as mine. Some of you, perhaps, have already heard what it contains but I would just like to read it to you: ' ... We regard the agreement signed last night and the US-Iranian Testing Agreement as symbolic of the desire of our two peoples never to go to war with one another.'[3]
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The Final Dakar  (op)
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Feb 22, 2016, 02:32 PM
 
How is Joe Scarborough not getting a mountain of shit for his transparent conflict of interest?
     
subego
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Feb 22, 2016, 03:23 PM
 
Doesn't he get pundit leeway?
     
The Final Dakar  (op)
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Feb 22, 2016, 03:47 PM
 
I dunno. I kind of feel the leeway fades when he says stuff like he'd be open to being Trumps VP.
     
subego
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Feb 22, 2016, 04:58 PM
 
Both because it's too early in the game, and because he's being up-front about it, there isn't really any quid pro quo yet.

It could get hairy down the line though, especially if he'd settle for a cabinet position.
     
The Final Dakar  (op)
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Feb 22, 2016, 05:54 PM
 
What is your definition of "up front about it?" Joe has been downplaying his relationship with Trump big time.
     
subego
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Feb 22, 2016, 06:12 PM
 
I'll admit I'm not fully informed about this.

I presumed if he said he'd be interested in VP, it was him being relatively forward about, well... being interested in it.
     
The Final Dakar  (op)
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Feb 22, 2016, 06:41 PM
 
I'll see if I can dig up a good summary about it later. My memory on this isn't all that reliable.
     
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Feb 22, 2016, 08:48 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
At any rate, he still did much better than the polls indicated, once again indicating that they're worthless this year.
     
The Final Dakar  (op)
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Feb 22, 2016, 08:59 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
So, how does this declaring a winner with only 0.4% of precincts reporting thing work again?
I dunno, but they were right.

Originally Posted by OAW View Post
Down goes Bush!
I really thought he'd stay until Florida. But given he had his mother and brother campaigning for him in SC, I wonder if they made a deal that if that wasn't enough to get him a double-digit finish, time to retire without whatever was left of his dignity.


Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
Punditry time!


So what happens from here? Previously I mentioned that since 80 the eventual nominee finished 1 or 2 in NH. This year we have some strange circumstances so I'm going riff the off it. Word is Kasich was the beneficiary of Rubios misfortune, so his finish is somewhat tainted. Meanwhile evangelical Cruz still managed a 3rd place finish. Rubio might recover but I'm not convinced he has the time. So I think it's down to Trump or Cruz. Trump has to convince me he's willing to fund properly and Cruz that his Iowa win wasn't just a steal from Carson.
So, Kasich managed a decent showing in SC considering, and Rubio's ascension to second can be spun well, but its more Cruz's third that so demeaning as this state was tailor-made for him. The best part, however, is by past measures Trump would be the presumptive nominee (He obliterated everyone so hard they got ZERO delegates from SC), but since he's Trump no talking heads will say that.

Most shocking thing I read today: Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith | FiveThirtyEight
Instead, a plurality — 34 percent — went for Donald Trump, about the same share as the state’s GOP primary voters overall.

According to the Edison Research/National Election Pool, evangelicals even chose Trump over contenders like Marco Rubio (21 percent) and Ted Cruz (26 percent) who frequently cite their Christian backgrounds as a guidepost. Cruz, who won the Iowa Caucuses and outperformed polls largely based on evangelical support, has a national prayer team. Trump couldn’t or wouldn’t name his favorite verse of the Bible and has made gaffes including misnaming one of its books.
Why is this happening? I have seen that Trump's perceived electability keeps going up with spurts and fits, but it has to be more than that. I mean, I understand Cruz is slimy, but Trump is transparently pandering. What is the appeal?

On the other side, Rubio has shown a remarkable durability in the face of adversity. After his debate performance torpedoed him in NH and gave him terrible optics (5th place!) he's right back in the mix and may be ready to pass Cruz permanently.

Still, Super Tuesday may be enough to lock-in the nom. If Trump performs to polls, he'll have a very hard to overcome delegate lead. Fascinating.
     
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Feb 22, 2016, 11:07 PM
 
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
How is Joe Scarborough not getting a mountain of shit for his transparent conflict of interest?
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Doesn't he get pundit leeway?
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
I dunno. I kind of feel the leeway fades when he says stuff like he'd be open to being Trumps VP.
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Both because it's too early in the game, and because he's being up-front about it, there isn't really any quid pro quo yet.

It could get hairy down the line though, especially if he'd settle for a cabinet position.
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
What is your definition of "up front about it?" Joe has been downplaying his relationship with Trump big time.
Originally Posted by subego View Post
I'll admit I'm not fully informed about this.

I presumed if he said he'd be interested in VP, it was him being relatively forward about, well... being interested in it.
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
I'll see if I can dig up a good summary about it later. My memory on this isn't all that reliable.
Is what y'all talk in bout? If we're Cruz or Rubio I'd be running this like crazy.
Hot Mic Captures Trump Talking With MSNBC TV Hosts - Conservative Outfitters
https://soundcloud.com/leshowharrysh...bruary-21-2016
Starts at 21:25
45/47
     
Chongo
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Feb 23, 2016, 11:07 PM
 
NV Republican caucus "worker" Are they allowed to wear candidate swag in a caucus?




Update: it is permitted to wear swag at a caucus event in NV.
( Last edited by Chongo; Feb 24, 2016 at 12:18 AM. )
45/47
     
The Final Dakar  (op)
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Feb 24, 2016, 10:27 AM
 
Wow
     
subego
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Feb 24, 2016, 01:02 PM
 
To contrast, in Chicago, one of your election judge duties is to yell at people who come into the polling place wearing swag.
     
Paco500
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Feb 24, 2016, 01:18 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
To contrast, in Chicago, one of your election judge duties is to yell at people who come into the polling place wearing swag.
Well it's not exactly fair to try and hold the rest of the country to Chicago's high ethical standards for elections.
     
subego
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Feb 24, 2016, 01:43 PM
 
In one of my prouder moments as a Chicagoan, in the 80's, we rose up against the machine responsible for that. It's been relatively legit ever since.

Not to play down our colorful past.
     
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Feb 24, 2016, 02:42 PM
 
Caucuses are political events not state run elections. Hence the swag. Kinda like the coin tosses at Democrat events.
     
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Feb 24, 2016, 03:49 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
In one of my prouder moments as a Chicagoan, in the 80's, we rose up against the machine responsible for that. It's been relatively legit ever since.

Not to play down our colorful past.
Voters there were seriously dedicated, I'll give you that. Some have records that extended for >150 years.
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Feb 24, 2016, 04:12 PM
 
My favorite trick was bribing the stew bums with gin.
     
Cap'n Tightpants
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Feb 24, 2016, 04:50 PM
 
I've heard they use lottery tickets now (it works well in Memphis too). They load them up on to a bus and take them to the polling station, then as they're leaving they load them back up and give them a handful of cheap lottery tickets. #Winning
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Feb 24, 2016, 05:37 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
I've heard they use lottery tickets now (it works well in Memphis too). They load them up on to a bus and take them to the polling station, then as they're leaving they load them back up and give them a handful of cheap lottery tickets. #Winning
How do think Obama won twice, yet the Democrats got hammered in the mid terms? For the POTUS election, some states allowed THIRTY DAYS of early voting. Its hard to lose an election when you can bus people in for seven to thirty days.
45/47
     
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Feb 24, 2016, 05:48 PM
 
A serious question to people on either side of the political isle....

I see a lot of resentment from the political class and their media outlets towards Trump.

Can someone articulate, in terms of policy, what they don't like about Trump? And maybe why? (a bullet list would be preferable, as opposed to an essay answer)

It would be preferable if the list is as objective as possible.
     
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Feb 24, 2016, 05:55 PM
 
Originally Posted by Chongo View Post
How do think Obama won twice, yet the Democrats got hammered in the mid terms? For the POTUS election, some states allowed THIRTY DAYS of early voting. Its hard to lose an election when you can bus people in for seven to thirty days.
It's quite simple really. The Obama coalition consists of eligible voters who typically come out to cast a ballot only in presidential election years. Young people, minorities, first-time voters, single women, etc. Those demographics which tend to vote Democrat simply outnumber those which tend to vote GOP at the national level. That being said, their voter participation rate tends to fall off a cliff during mid-terms which allows older, whiter, GOP voters to prevail at the state and local level. The results of an election should be based upon the collective will of all eligible voters. Whether the voting period is 1 day, 7 days, or 30 days is irrelevant as long as everyone has the opportunity to vote during this period.

OAW
     
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Feb 24, 2016, 05:59 PM
 
Originally Posted by Hawkeye_a View Post
A serious question to people on either side of the political isle....

I see a lot of resentment from the political class and their media outlets towards Trump.

Can someone articulate, in terms of policy, what they don't like about Trump? And maybe why? (a bullet list would be preferable, as opposed to an essay answer)

It would be preferable if the list is as objective as possible.
I appreciate your question but in all honesty this is very difficult to do in light of Trump's utter lack of specificity and respect for reality with regards to his own policy positions.

OAW
     
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Feb 24, 2016, 06:13 PM
 
Originally Posted by OAW View Post
I appreciate your question but in all honesty this is very difficult to do in light of Trump's utter lack of specificity and respect for reality with regards to his own policy positions.

OAW
So what don't you like about his political goals? What has be said/done to cause the politically entrenched, the major media outlets, and even some of the people in the party he is running in, to dislike him more than any other candidate? (If anyone can answer my original question, please go ahead)
     
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Feb 24, 2016, 07:12 PM
 
Originally Posted by Hawkeye_a View Post
So what don't you like about his political goals? What has be said/done to cause the politically entrenched, the major media outlets, and even some of the people in the party he is running in, to dislike him more than any other candidate? (If anyone can answer my original question, please go ahead)
Let's set aside the fact that Trump is running the most unabashedly bigoted and xenophobic presidential campaign since the 1968 campaign of George Wallace. From a pure policy perspective his platform simply doesn't add up. It's jingoistic platitudes devoid of substance or outright contradictory. Let's go by his own policy platform located here:

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positions
  • US-China Trade Reform
  • Veterans Administrations Reform
  • Tax Reform
  • Second Amendment Rights
  • Immigration Reform

You aren't reading that wrong. That's all his entire platform addresses. So I'll give you an example of what I'm talking about. With respect to US-China Trade Reform ...

The Trump Plan Will Achieve The Following Goals:

1. Bring China to the bargaining table by immediately declaring it a currency manipulator.

2. Protect American ingenuity and investment by forcing China to uphold intellectual property laws and stop their unfair and unlawful practice of forcing U.S. companies to share proprietary technology with Chinese competitors as a condition of entry to China’s market.

3. Reclaim millions of American jobs and reviving American manufacturing by putting an end to China’s illegal export subsidies and lax labor and environmental standards. No more sweatshops or pollution havens stealing jobs from American workers.

4. Strengthen our negotiating position by lowering our corporate tax rate to keep American companies and jobs here at home, attacking our debt and deficit so China cannot use financial blackmail against us, and bolstering the U.S. military presence in the East and South China Seas to discourage Chinese adventurism.
Yeah ok. But how exactly? The main issue with Trump's proclamations is that he acts as if the other party has no say whatsoever in the process. China is going to do all of this why? Mexico is going to pay for a wall across the entire southern border why? Simply because Trump said so? More on this ...

The Trump Plan Will Strengthen Our Negotiating Position

As the world’s most important economy and consumer of goods, America must always negotiate trade agreements from strength. Branding China as a currency manipulator and exposing their unfair trade practices is not enough. In order to further strengthen our negotiating leverage, the Trump plan will:

1. Lower the corporate tax rate to 15% to unleash American ingenuity here at home and make us more globally competitive. This tax cut puts our rate 10 percentage points below China and 20 points below our current burdensome rate that pushes companies and jobs offshore.

2. Attack our debt and deficit by vigorously eliminating waste, fraud and abuse in the Federal government, ending redundant government programs, and growing the economy to increase tax revenues. Closing the deficit and reducing our debt will mean China cannot blackmail us with our own Treasury bonds.

3. Strengthen the U.S. military and deploying it appropriately in the East and South China Seas. These actions will discourage Chinese adventurism that imperils American interests in Asia and shows our strength as we begin renegotiating our trading relationship with China. A strong military presence will be a clear signal to China and other nations in Asia and around the world that America is back in the global leadership business.
Let's roll with that. But look at what he said about Tax Reform:

The Trump Tax Plan Is Revenue Neutral

The Trump tax cuts are fully paid for by:

1. Reducing or eliminating most deductions and loopholes available to the very rich.

2. A one-time deemed repatriation of corporate cash held overseas at a significantly discounted 10% tax rate, followed by an end to the deferral of taxes on corporate income earned abroad.

3. Reducing or eliminating corporate loopholes that cater to special interests, as well as deductions made unnecessary or redundant by the new lower tax rate on corporations and business income. We will also phase in a reasonable cap on the deductibility of business interest expenses.
Now let's say for the sake of discussion that Trump's tax reform plan ... which FTR has the most specifics of all of his policy positions ... actually is revenue neutral. Well then where is the money going to come from to "attack our debt and deficit"? Oh yeah ... by "ending redundant government programs, and growing the economy to increase tax revenues". You mean like what the Obama Administration has been doing the last 8 years thereby reducing the deficit by two-thirds since he took office? But then again if this massive tax-cut plan actually is NOT revenue neutral ... as the historical record typically proves GOP tax plans to be ... then what?

OAW
     
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Feb 24, 2016, 07:32 PM
 
Trump is a throw back to the Know Nothing party of the1800's
45/47
     
The Final Dakar  (op)
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Feb 25, 2016, 03:16 PM
 
I see Mitt Romney still has no self awareness. Of all the people to try and shame Trump into releasing his tax returns...
     
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Feb 25, 2016, 03:21 PM
 
Definitely "not the Onion" material.
     
The Final Dakar  (op)
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Feb 26, 2016, 02:41 PM
 
Pandemonium!
     
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Feb 26, 2016, 06:46 PM
 
     
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Feb 28, 2016, 07:14 AM
 
While everyone is looking at Trump, Clinton appears to be running away with the Democratic nomination. SC was a disaster for Bernie, almost 50 points behind. Analysis will be forthcoming I'm sure, especially what it means for this Tuesday, but I wonder if the key isn't that Trump is looking more and more like the GOP candidate. Democratic voters don't want to take a chance on that, and Clinton appears so much more electable.
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The Final Dakar  (op)
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Mar 1, 2016, 11:45 AM
 


WTF? They hate Romney more than white supremacists?
     
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Mar 1, 2016, 12:27 PM
 
Originally Posted by Hawkeye_a View Post
Can someone articulate, in terms of policy, what they don't like about Trump? And maybe why? (a bullet list would be preferable, as opposed to an essay answer)
John Oliver covers a lot of valid points, just about Drumpf's credibility. He's spewing out whatever he thinks people want to hear. He lies as a matter of routine. So even if he does have policies that sound rational, I have no confidence whatsoever of them really coming to pass.



Of course now that I see he's offering to remove taxes entirely for the < 25,000 set, I can see where some of his voter base is coming from.
     
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Mar 1, 2016, 12:56 PM
 
Sargon said it best about Oliver. What a waste of resources and opportunity.

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Mar 1, 2016, 12:57 PM
 
Originally Posted by andi*pandi View Post
Of course now that I see he's offering to remove taxes entirely for the < 25,000 set, I can see where some of his voter base is coming from.
Remove taxes for the <$49k set, you mean?
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Mar 1, 2016, 02:03 PM
 
that's for couples, yes.
     
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Mar 1, 2016, 02:22 PM
 
That can be quite an incentive, why else do people vote for Hillary and Bernie?
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Mar 1, 2016, 03:19 PM
 
The fair tax would eliminate income tax completely.

Vote Hernie Clanders


Or Dillary Clump
45/47
     
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Mar 1, 2016, 03:25 PM
 
That second one is eerie as ****. I'm pretty sure I saw that person in Key West recently.
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Mar 1, 2016, 03:35 PM
 
Yup. Sounds about right.

Though it needs giant pearls or gold jewelry to be real.
     
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Mar 1, 2016, 03:49 PM
 
It was a really nice person, selling souvenirs and tickets for the burlesque show, spitting image though.

BTW, I voted for Sanders in the primary.
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Mar 1, 2016, 06:59 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
Sargon said it best about Oliver. What a waste of resources and opportunity.

I think you and this Sargon fellow have somehow missed that it's a comedy program.
     
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Mar 1, 2016, 07:16 PM
 
Whether Oliver has a political agenda beyond comedy, he brought up valid points dissecting Trump's mind-boggling political success.

Then, yes, it got silly with Drumpf... and what the heck. Why not. It just highlights one of the many hypocrisies of Trump... even a minor one. This is the kind of thing Colbert did well, and I think Oliver did it well too. Daily show style political satire always balances the factoids with some juvenile humor.

This guy goes on a bit, makes some points, but I can't quite tell if he's calling Oliver out on not being enough of a political activist, or not doing a good job of outing Trump... or what he expected of a political satirist. Eh.
     
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Mar 1, 2016, 08:54 PM
 
It's like the fools who thought the Daily Show was "just a comedy", then it turned out that Millennials actually treated it like the news.
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Mar 2, 2016, 11:43 AM
 
What's the etymology of "Drumpf"?
     
Hawkeye_a
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Mar 2, 2016, 12:05 PM
 
Originally Posted by andi*pandi View Post
Whether Oliver has a political agenda beyond comedy, he brought up valid points dissecting Trump's mind-boggling political success.
A year ago i found Oliver entertaining, and watched his skits every week. Through the year it became painfully obvious that he's a left-wing-lunatic masquerading as a comedian, completely divorced from reality and only pushing his socio-political agenda (which is anti-liberal(classical sense)).

I stopped watching his show because he's not entertaining. He's a one trick pony, peddling the same jokes in every video week after week. The only variation is his activism/political agenda, and quite frankly it's a yawn fest.

Regarding Trump. IMHO, as a non-white person, I have yet to see any proof that the guy is racist.

If people here complain that he is pandering to the masses....well...isn't that what every politician in a democratic process does? How about the class warfare used by the current president when he was running? Suddenly pandering to the masses a problem because Trump does it? Doesn't seem like a consistent reason IMHO.

And surely Trump isn't the first candidate to "lie", or make promises he can't keep, etc.

PS>>I didnt watch Oliver's Trump video cause i know how biased he is.
( Last edited by Hawkeye_a; Mar 2, 2016 at 12:30 PM. )
     
subego
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Mar 2, 2016, 12:26 PM
 
I liked Oliver's reply to assertions he's a journalist.

"Am I so bad a comedian that if I say I'm a comedian, you have to insist I'm not?"
     
 
 
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