[Luca Rescigno]

Well, none of the states matter now except Ohio. If Kerry wins all the as-yet uncalled states except Ohio, it'll be 269 to 269, and Bush will be elected. His only chance is to claim Ohio and just one other state. Minnesota will do (he'll win there for sure). But his chances of winning Ohio seem to get smaller every minute.

Even if Kerry was able to win, it would not be a decisive victory as he did not win the popular vote. While he would be president regardless of the popular vote, the Republicans would complain in the same way that the Democrats complained in 2000, and with good reason.

And you could argue that it's the fault of the young voters. Which is ridiculous since they're often the ones who are most vocal in their attacks on Bush. God damn it, I voted... I should go around campus tomorrow and punch 87% of the students in the face there.

[CRASH HARDDRIVE]

97% New Mexico in- Bush up 52%- who's gonna call the election for Bush first? Even Fox isn't touching it.

Oh wait, it's "too close to call"!

[Spliffdaddy]

Originally posted by BRussell:
Because they didn't call a close state? Why should the media call it - let them count the votes. It's close, it's going to determine the presidency. Remember Florida in 2000?

No.

Because they called a state with 47% precincts reporting and a 1% margin of victory - for Kerry.

Yet, with 97% of precincts reporting and the same margin of victory - they refuse to call Bush the winner in another state.

If you watch CNN and FOX at the same time, it makes CNN look dumb.

[Logic]

Michigan to Kerry according to CBS.

[PacHead]

Originally posted by Luca Rescigno:
And you could argue that it's the fault of the young voters. Which is ridiculous since they're often the ones who are most vocal in their attacks on Bush. God damn it, I voted... I should go around campus tomorrow and punch 87% of the students in the face there.

I believe I heard earlier tonight that the young vote was about the same percentage as last time. Yeah, get out the vote ! Vote or die puffy ! MTV - Yeah, bling bling ! ! !

Let's take this country back ! Woooohooooo!

LOL

Oh man, the smile on my face is so damn big right about now.

[spacefreak]

Reports are that Sen. Kennedy, at the ripe time of 2:10 am, has just arrived at the Kerry stead, and that some serious discussions are under way.

Being that Kerry advisors were saying earlier (when exit polls suggested a Kerry win) that Kerry was preparing to give a "The time has is now to unite and come togehter as one nation" victory speech, what transpires here should be interesting - especially when considering that Nixon conceded an extremely tight election - one in which he could have triggered numerous recounts - to JFK because "it was the right thing for the nation".

[djohnson]

What are they waiting for the call in NM?

[Xeo]

The Ohio spread is widening.

Too bad. I'm calling it to Bush. At least the Redskins thing is dead now.

[Kenneth]

Originally posted by Spliffdaddy:
MTV's 'Rock the Vote' campaign failed miserably.

Well.. my sister voted today for the first time. I walked about campus, most college students did vote.. even those freshmen.

I'm not sure about the effect of "Choose or lose" from MTV.. but I received an automated email from them this morning.

[Logic]

Bush up 30k in NM according to BBC.

[Spliffdaddy]

UH OH

2 minutes until Edwards makes a statement.

update:

he's live now

[MindFad]

Originally posted by spacefreak:
Reports are that Sen. Kennedy, at the ripe time of 2:10 am, has just arrived at the Kerry stead, and that some serious discussions are under way.

Being that Kerry advisors were saying earlier (when exit polls suggested a Kerry win) that Kerry was preparing to give a "The time has is now to unite and come togehter as one nation" victory speech, what transpires here should be interesting - especially when considering that Nixon conceded an extremely tight election - one in which he could have triggered numerous recounts - to JFK because "it was the right thing for the nation".

Conceding to such a failure and danger that is this Presidential incumbent is hardly the "right thing for the nation" this time around.

[Spliffdaddy]

well damn.

Edwards pretty much said they would fight for every vote.

The same thing as a concession speech, nowadays.

[CRASH HARDDRIVE]

BWHAHAHAHA!

Edwards claiming victory! The Kerry playbook playing out to the letter!

Comedy gold!

[Joshua]

This is ****ing disgusting.

[djohnson]

So sad... Why not just admit they lost?

[Spliffdaddy]

I would say this was unexpected - but it wasn't.

Being a Democrat is like lopping off your nuts.

[RAILhead]

Originally posted by Spliffdaddy:
well damn.

Edwards pretty much said they would fight for every vote.

The same thing as a concession speech, nowadays.

He's probably going to channel the spirits of dead children to scare the vote counters so they lose Bush votes.

What a puss. The margin is well over .25% so there should be no recount.

Maury

[Xeo]

Ruth Johnson won. I mention it 'cause she's here in my dorm as we're watching the election coverage. They are tallying the numbers and she's apparently came out on top and there was an uproar of cheers for a few minutes.

[itai195]

Wisconsin is even closer, only a 15,000 vote difference.

Oh looks like Hawaii went from 0% precincts reporting to a call for John Kerry on CNN. Weird. I think these CNN guys need to succumb to their fatigue soon as well...

[vmpaul]

CNN has Hawaii and MN going to Kerry.

249 Bush
242 Kerry

They say nobody can win tonight. Iowa won't be ready till they clear up their problems and then there's Ohio...

[Spliffdaddy]

By the way, Edwards is from North Carolina.

Kerry/Edwards lost badly in North Carolina.

Just like Gore didn't win his home state of Tennessee. Mostly because the citizens of Tennessee are the very best people in the world.

[Buckaroo]

Originally posted by Spliffdaddy:
By the way, Edwards is from North Carolina.

Kerry/Edwards lost badly in North Carolina.

Just like Gore didn't win his home state of Tennessee. Mostly because the citizens of Tennessee are the very best people in the world.

And Kerry didn't win his birth state of Colorado.

[greenamp]

Originally posted by Spliffdaddy:
By the way, Edwards is from North Carolina.

Kerry/Edwards lost badly in North Carolina.

Just like Gore didn't win his home state of Tennessee. Mostly because the citizens of Tennessee are the very best people in the world.

True 'dat!

Also, something to be noted here in our local elections... Republicans have taken control of the state senate in TN for the 1st time in over 150 yrs. It's pretty big news here.

[MindFad]

George didn't win Connecticut, so?

[CRASH HARDDRIVE]

If Kerry and Co. go down the path of contesting races that aren't even within an automatic recount margin, and sticking with their playbook of pretending they won despite the facts, it'll just expose them as another set of 'Sore Losermen'.

Edwards pretending he's 'the next VP' is too damned funny! Get flushed John!

I'll enjoy seeing him retract that tomorrow, after Kerry's concession speech.

And for pete's sake- someone call NM (and Bush's victory) already. 98% in 52% Bush?

Maybe it's a Dem metro area in NM that's the last 2%? Somehow I doubt it.

[Spliffdaddy]

Predictions:

1) George Bush will be declared the winner tonight.

2) There will be some recounts in Ohio.

3) Nothing will change.

4) I win twenty bucks.

[y0y0]

:Looking for my lopped off nuts: This is just painful. Kerry should just plainly get up and conceed and at least act like a gentleman. There's no way in hell he can win Ohio. Come on!

[djohnson]

This is not worth staying up any longer. Bush wins. Night!

[Spliffdaddy]

Originally posted by CRASH HARDDRIVE:
If Kerry and Co. go down the path of contesting races that aren't even within an automatic recount margin, and sticking with their playbook of pretending they won despite the facts, it'll just expose them as another set of 'Sore Losermen'.

Edwards pretending he's 'the next VP' is too damned funny! Get flushed John!

I'll enjoy seeing him retract that tomorrow, after Kerry's concession speech.

And for pete's sake- someone call NM (and Bush's victory) already. 98% in 52% Bush?

Maybe it's a Dem metro area in NM that's the last 2%? Somehow I doubt it.

No, it's actually a newer subdivision that leans heavily Republican, according to some dude on Fox that's an expert in this sort of stuff. He predicts nearly all uncounted NM votes are for Dubya. All NM metro areas have been counted.

[BRussell]

Only Fox and NBC have called Ohio for Bush, Fox 20 minutes before NBC. None of the others - CNN, CBS, ABC, PBS - have called it. It looks like Bush is going to win it, because the margins are big enough right now for Bush, but they should count them.

[itai195]

Personally I think it's pretty much over. If there are 250,000 provisional ballots (which is contested) what are the odds that most of them are actually legitimate AND lean overwhelmingly for Kerry?

[Spliffdaddy]

How in the hell can fully half of the population disagree with one another?

If I was Dubya, I think I'd be concerned about the fact that half of the population thinks I'm an idiot - and the other half merely thought that Kerry was more of an idiot than I was. Then again, if I was Dubya, I should probably be more concerned with the sexual feelings I had toward my daughter, Jenna.

nitey nite, ya'll.

[Xeo]

Bush has popular vote right now. More people (of the people who care enough to vote) prefer Bush over Kerry. That's how our system works. Congrats to Bush. It's painful to think about the next 4 years, though.

[Buckaroo]

Originally posted by BRussell:
Only Fox and NBC have called Ohio for Bush, Fox 20 minutes before NBC. None of the others - CNN, CBS, ABC, PBS - have called it. It looks like Bush is going to win it, because the margins are big enough right now for Bush, but they should count them.

Count what? There is no mandate for a recount. The provisional ballots are irrelevant. By law they are only counted when the vote falls within the same requirements for a recount, which I believe is .25% or something like that.

It's over. Bush won.

[ender2002]

its sad that all of those walmart shopping, pork-rind eating, southern, catholic, middle-american people had to pick the wrong candidate. now we're doomed.

[CRASH HARDDRIVE]

Originally posted by BRussell:
[B]Only Fox and NBC have called Ohio for Bush, Fox 20 minutes before NBC. None of the others - CNN, CBS, ABC, PBS - have called it. It looks like Bush is going to win it, because the margins are big enough right now for Bush, but they should count them.

Fox seems to have among the most on the ball analysts. The �numbers� guy they have on air seems to have his **** down more than anyone I�ve seen CNN trot out. There simply don�t appear to be enough possible Kerry votes left uncounted in Ohio for him to win- that fact was predictable some time ago by anyone with the stats to analyze the remaining counties based on their population, voter registration, prior election habits, etc. Fox seems to be on top of that- CNN (for one) at this point seems to be dreaming. As has been pointed out, they called other states (rightly so) for Kerry based on lesser precincts in, so at this point pretending Ohio can�t be called just comes off as partisan wishful thinking.

[PacHead]

Originally posted by ender2002:
its sad that all of those walmart shopping, pork-rind eating, southern, catholic, middle-american people had to pick the wrong candidate. now we're doomed.

Hey mr. bigot, I'm from NYC, I don't shop at walmart, I'm not crazy about pork, I'm not from the south, I'm not catholic, not middle American, and I'm damn glad it seems Bush won, so you are wrong mr. bigot.

[aberdeenwriter]

Originally posted by ender2002:
its sad that all of those walmart shopping, pork-rind eating, southern, catholic, middle-american people had to pick the wrong candidate. now we're doomed.

Better to thank your lucky stars.

http://www.paulkengor.com/article.aspx?id=54

"We understood that the primary targets on Saddam�s nuke list, if and when he developed the capability, would be big cities like New York, Washington, DC, Los Angeles, and Chicago, all filled overwhelmingly with Democratic voters. Washington, DC votes 80-90% for the Democratic presidential candidate. New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago reside in blue states with huge numbers of Electoral College votes that will go against Bush. When George W. Bush risked his presidency to go to war in Iraq, he essentially did so to remove a perceived nuclear threat to these cities, to these blue states. Indeed, a nuclear-armed Saddam would have targeted LA or New York City, not Omaha or Wichita (i.e., cities in pro-Bush red states)."


This is the height of irony: President Bush is most rejected by the blue-state cities that he sought to protect from a nuclear attack. (Equally ironic, people in those cities always cast ballots for liberal politicians who vote against missile defense.) And, if Bush fails to win enough electoral votes in 2004, he will have failed because those in these cities deeply despise him for going to war to remove Saddam Hussein. Go figure. Amazing�maybe more amazing than Ted Kennedy�s latest remarks."

September 29, 2004

[itai195]

So Saddam now not only had nukes, he had ICBMs capable of reaching the US West Coast? Wow, your underappreciation for the sophistication of this technology is rather striking.

[CRASH HARDDRIVE]

What's going on with New Mexico and Iowa?

99%, Bush leads over 50% and still not enough to call the election?

I think at this point, all the networks are teaming up to drag this thing out so they can use up more of the premium paid-for advertising time.

Bush won, end of story. Tomorrow we'll just find out by exactly how much.

[Sandbaggins]

I live in Los Angeles, CA.

Voted for Bush.


:chomps on some pork-rind:

:burp:

[aberdeenwriter]

Originally posted by itai195:
So Saddam now not only had nukes, he had ICBMs capable of reaching the US West Coast? Wow, your underappreciation for the sophistication of this technology is rather striking.

Nuking the Blues by Paul Kengor
September 29, 2004

In an amazing statement, Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) said on Sunday that, �The war in Iraq has made the mushroom cloud more likely, not less likely,� and that President George W. Bush has increased the danger of a �nuclear 9/11.� This is the latest creative example of Senator Kennedy marginalizing himself. Nonetheless, Kennedy�s declaration rekindled a thought that has nagged at me for some time. Namely, it is quite ironic than in removing Saddam Hussein�a man who was widely perceived as a nuclear threat�George W. Bush in effect sought to protect the blue states that did not vote for him in 2000 and will not support him in 2004. Those blue states contain the largest swell of pure hatred of Bush, of thousands who turn blue with rage at mere mention of the man.


Before further considering that thought, consider some crucial background:


Throughout the 1990s, it was assumed that Saddam Hussein was not only stockpiling chemical and biological weapons but was working around the clock to acquire nuclear arms. I can speak to this from a unique perspective, as both a policy wonk and a professor: I started the 1990s, the Clinton years, on the staff of a major think tank, the Center for Strategic & International Studies, where my area of study was Iraq�s WMD programs. I finished those years as a professor at Grove City College, where I continued to specialize in the issue of Iraq�s WMD. Throughout that Clinton period, I reiterated the terrifying consensus: that Iraq was only 18 months away from having a nuclear bomb. At one point in 2001, a returning student sitting in on a lecture reminded me that I had said the same thing years earlier. Yes, I had. And still no bomb. That fact, however, never lowered the anxiety of the consensus, one that was grounded in evidence.


Here were the facts: In the mid-1990s, the United Nations Special Commission on Iraq (UNSCOM) learned that Saddam had created an enormous nuclear weapons program that dated back to the 1970s. Spread among 25 facilities, it employed 15,000 technical people. Based on a Manhattan Project bomb design, Iraqi scientists pursued five different methods for separating uranium. Saddam pumped $10 billion into the program, thus far to no avail.

That is a description of Saddam�s nuclear ambitions. The frightening details of the chemical and biological stockpiles he actually developed could fill books.


Saddam�s relentless pursuit of WMD forced the international community, via the United Nations, to apply sanctions on Iraq starting in 1991. As part of the Gulf War ceasefire, Saddam agreed to the inspections. He quickly reneged, and inspectors endured endless cat-and-mouse games in trying to do their job. The inspectors eventually achieved notable success: by the mid-1990s they found and destroyed a massive amount of weapons. By the late 1990s, however, Saddam was again obstructing inspectors at every turn. By December 1998, the Clinton administration was fed up, and unleashed a flurry of cruise missiles at Iraqi sites.


These Clinton strikes, which happened repeatedly, were ineffective in stopping Iraq�s pursuit of WMD. They did not remove the root�Saddam and his regime. The strikes destroyed buildings and killed Iraqi people, though none named Saddam, Qusay, or Uday.


The debate in 2002-3 was not over whether Saddam had WMD but how to disarm him. The option favored by the French and German governments and Kofi Annan was to continue inspections and sanctions. The George W. Bush/Tony Blair approach maintained that the only way to truly disarm Saddam was to remove him.


How does this relate to the blue states?


We understood that the primary targets on Saddam�s nuke list, if and when he developed the capability, would be big cities like New York, Washington, DC, Los Angeles, and Chicago, all filled overwhelmingly with Democratic voters. Washington, DC votes 80-90% for the Democratic presidential candidate. New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago reside in blue states with huge numbers of Electoral College votes that will go against Bush. When George W. Bush risked his presidency to go to war in Iraq, he essentially did so to remove a perceived nuclear threat to these cities, to these blue states. Indeed, a nuclear-armed Saddam would have targeted LA or New York City, not Omaha or Wichita (i.e., cities in pro-Bush red states).


This is the height of irony: President Bush is most rejected by the blue-state cities that he sought to protect from a nuclear attack. (Equally ironic, people in those cities always cast ballots for liberal politicians who vote against missile defense.) And, if Bush fails to win enough electoral votes in 2004, he will have failed because those in these cities deeply despise him for going to war to remove Saddam Hussein. Go figure. Amazing�maybe more amazing than Ted Kennedy�s latest remarks.

Copyright � 2002-2003 PaulKengor.com. All rights reserved.

[itai195]

Dumb article, it's just spin. You didn't address my point. He had no means to deliver such a weapon. Anyway, it's OT.

[Randman]

Ugh, being in Asia right now, have to endure hours and hours of CNN's talking heads saying absolutely nothing.

[Buckaroo]

Originally posted by Sandbaggins:
I live in Los Angeles, CA.

Voted for Bush.


:chomps on some pork-rind:

:burp:

I live in El Segundo, CA right next to LAX. I also voted for Bush. To bad our votes don't really count.

[CRASH HARDDRIVE]

Originally posted by itai195:
Anyway, it's OT.

Seconded.

Perhaps start another thread on lame Iraq war/Saddam bullcrap?

There's another subject most people must be sick to death of after years of constant bullcrapping (usually the same rehashed drivel) over it.

[Cody Dawg]

ender2002
its sad that all of those walmart shopping, pork-rind eating, southern, catholic, middle-american people had to pick the wrong candidate. now we're doomed.

"We" didn't pick the wrong candidate...we picked Bush.

If you'll remember, Edwards is the Southerner, Kerry is the "middle American" Catholic, and I'm sure that Edwards probably likes pork rinds and his wife shops at Wal-Mart in their little North Carolina town.

[CRASH HARDDRIVE]

*Cracking up!*

Watching CNN right now as they ADMIT they are crunching numbers TRYING to produce a Kerry win in Ohio!

That was an amazing admission, either a slip up, or they just no longer even care to try and look impartial.

[sideus]

Bush is up 140,000+ in Ohio with 99% reported. CNN needs to give up.