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You are here: MacNN Forums > Community > MacNN Lounge > Finally, the burst in commodity prices? Oil and gold dropping quickly.

Finally, the burst in commodity prices? Oil and gold dropping quickly. (Page 3)
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Shaddim
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Sep 19, 2008, 08:12 PM
 
Yes, peeb. Whatever, peeb.
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Dual Porpoise
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Sep 19, 2008, 08:13 PM
 
???
     
Big Mac
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Sep 22, 2008, 02:26 PM
 
Well, that "burst" was fun while it lasted. Oil is up $25 in one day. It looks all the money the government is throwing around - both in fiscal policy and monetary policy - is sending commodities back to their highs in short order.

"The natural progress of things is for liberty to yield and government to gain ground." TJ
     
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Sep 22, 2008, 02:47 PM
 
Arrrggh.. I'm responsible for this latest oil price hike.

This always happens... As soon as I buy Apple stock, the US dollar drops through the floor, and oil prices shoot up. With that, the value of the Canadian dollar shoots up too, since Canada's economy is heavily dependent upon oil exports (particularly to the US).

So, even though AAPL is several % higher than when I bought it, I'm still in the hole because of the exchange rate.

Anyways, it seems the lemmings... errr... speculators are out in full force again today.
( Last edited by Eug; Sep 22, 2008 at 02:53 PM. )
     
moonmonkey
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Sep 22, 2008, 07:30 PM
 
Damn, I sold my gold last friday.
based on my own advice in this thread I made a about 1K in 48 hours , if I had held on it would be 1.4K
     
Eug  (op)
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Oct 6, 2008, 07:17 AM
 
Oil prices dropped below $90 this morning.
     
Eug  (op)
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Oct 6, 2008, 08:45 PM
 
Heh. Since the drop in natural gas prices, the natural gas contract salespeople have stopped coming around. I hate those bastards. I wish the government would legislate them out of existence.



Meanwhile oil continues to drop and is around US$88 a barrel now. Along with that drop, our CAD$ dropped to 91¢ US, which kinda sucks because Apple is probably going release a laptop next week, and Apple Canada might just raise the Canadian price slightly because of this.

Gasoline prices are also dropping. They should be below CAD$1.05 a litre by tomorrow. I don't know what the gasoline prices are in the US though.

As for gold, it got a boost around $30 to well over $860 today, in the face of the financial meltdown. It's still significantly lower than where it was at the end of September though, when it was over $900. Going forward I could see gold go higher, but I wouldn't necessarily count on it.

( Last edited by Eug; Oct 6, 2008 at 09:01 PM. )
     
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Oct 6, 2008, 08:50 PM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
Going forward I could see gold go higher, but I wouldn't necessarily count on it.
Gold's got to go higher, no? What with the US mint stopping bullion production last month and all.
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moonmonkey
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Oct 6, 2008, 08:53 PM
 
I heard talk its going all the way back to 900.
     
Eug  (op)
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Oct 6, 2008, 09:01 PM
 
Originally Posted by moonmonkey View Post
I heard talk its going all the way back to 900.
     
Eriamjh
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Oct 9, 2008, 07:14 AM
 
You kill me, Data.

Gas is sub-$3 finally at some Detroit stations. Oil is at about $90.

I guess it had filter through. Took long enough!

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Eug  (op)
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Oct 9, 2008, 08:29 AM
 
Hmmm... I thought gold would have hit $900. Not quite there yet but close enough.

POT has gone down dramatically too. In fact, it's been similar to AAPL. Up over $200 earlier in the year, but then dropped to below $100. Maybe it's time to buy soon.

P.S. I think I'll just have to get some gasoline today too. Under $1.05/L.
     
Doofy
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Oct 9, 2008, 08:31 AM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
Hmmm... I thought gold would have hit $900. Not quite there yet but close enough.
I've got an inkling as to what's actually happening with gold at the moment. Seems it's gone fiat - try actually buying physical gold instead of a "promise that we have your gold in our safe, honest" these days and you'll pay way over spot.
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Eug  (op)
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Oct 13, 2008, 10:44 AM
 
Oil dropped below $80 in the last few days, and is still hovering around $80 today. I haven't heard if OPEC has actually started trying to defend this price, but it sounds more like it's just naturally achieved relative equilibrium at this level (for now).

This has indeed translated into lower gasoline prices. We just paid 99.9¢ CAD per litre for regular. IIRC, it hasn't been at these levels since February.

Gold has dropped way down too. It's now back at around $830, after jumping last week to over $900. It would seem that some of the market investors are finally getting a little calmer, and we're seeing nice gains in the stock markets to go along with this.

Natural gas as of the end of last week was $6.825 per 1000 cubic feet. It was over $10 in the summer.
     
moonmonkey
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Oct 14, 2008, 06:34 PM
 
Eug, do think the gold value will likely recover from this over the next few weeks?
     
Eug  (op)
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Oct 14, 2008, 07:35 PM
 
I have no idea. But I'll give my 2¢ worth anyway.

I could see it going over $900, but definitely not $1000. However, I wouldn't be surprised if gold stayed under $900 for the next few weeks, or even went below $800. ie. Sideways movement, unless another series of banks go under.

Anyways, I will reiterate... The best part of all this is that I don't get those annoying natural gas contract salespeople knocking on my front door anymore. I swear I wanted to strangle them every time they stopped by.
     
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Oct 16, 2008, 11:27 AM
 
Wow. Gold already is below $800. Now at $794. I would have expected it to at least stand pat in the mid 800s, but nope.

Oil is down to $72.50.

Natural gas is down to $6.71.
( Last edited by Eug; Oct 16, 2008 at 11:34 AM. )
     
turtle777
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Oct 16, 2008, 11:45 AM
 
Awesome. I just bought more SPDR GOLD shares.

-t
     
Doofy
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Oct 16, 2008, 11:54 AM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
Awesome. I just bought more SPDR GOLD shares.
..and that's why gold is so low - because it's not gold, it's promises to pay gold.

You try getting $10k+ of physical gold for anywhere near spot.
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Oct 16, 2008, 12:00 PM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
Awesome. I just bought more SPDR GOLD shares.
I have been too chicken to buy gold.

Gold has been dropping, but on a very simplistic level one might have expected it to be higher this week after all the turmoil. But no, it's dropping like the rest of the market.

The market goes up, and gold drops.
The market now goes down, and gold drops again.

Maybe I'll buy into it if it drops a lot more, but for the time being, I'm just going to stay out.
     
turtle777
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Oct 16, 2008, 12:04 PM
 
Originally Posted by Doofy View Post
..and that's why gold is so low - because it's not gold, it's promises to pay gold.

You try getting $10k+ of physical gold for anywhere near spot.
That depends on what Gold ETF you buy.

I'm thinking about shifting money to my Swiss bank account, where they also offer a Gold ETF.

According to their T&C's, you can demand payment in physical gold.
They'll pay you in 995/1000 gold bars of 12.5kg.

-t
     
Eug  (op)
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Oct 16, 2008, 12:07 PM
 
BTW, oil dropped below $70 today too, before shifting back up.

As for having physical gold, I don't really want any. I have some gold (jewellery) and I just keep it a locked box at the bank. PITA. Paper gold is fine with me.
     
turtle777
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Oct 16, 2008, 12:07 PM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
I have been too chicken to buy gold.
Yes, I think the crisis is going to get bigger, and we'll see turmoil beyond what can be conceived right now.

Just think if the markets keep falling. The governments have now exhausted all their means to help. If the drop continues, there is no holding back.

-t
     
turtle777
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Oct 16, 2008, 12:37 PM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
As for having physical gold, I don't really want any. I have some gold (jewellery) and I just keep it a locked box at the bank. PITA. Paper gold is fine with me.
I'm preparing for the worst.

This could include a devaluation of the currency and a freeze of "paper" gold or even a prohibition to own gold other than jewelry. It all happened before.

-t
     
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Oct 16, 2008, 12:43 PM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
Yes, I think the crisis is going to get bigger, and we'll see turmoil beyond what can be conceived right now.
Yup. Interest rates need to go above 15% to sort this poopstorm out.
Been inclined to wander... off the beaten track.
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King Bob On The Cob
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Oct 16, 2008, 01:45 PM
 
I must ask: Why is Gas currently being traded at $1.6234 on the Mercantile, but actual costs at the station is still over $3?
     
moonmonkey
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Oct 17, 2008, 10:13 PM
 
WTF is going on with gold????????
its dropped through the floor, I feel like I have just flushed a sh1tload of cash down the toilet
My Broker just called me asking if I want to buy some more....
     
moonmonkey
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Oct 17, 2008, 10:16 PM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
I'm preparing for the worst.

This could include a devaluation of the currency and a freeze of "paper" gold or even a prohibition to own gold other than jewelry. It all happened before.

-t
buy it abroad.
     
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Oct 17, 2008, 10:48 PM
 
Originally Posted by moonmonkey View Post
WTF is going on with gold????????
Nothing has gone on with gold. But you don't own gold - you own bits of paper and bytes which tell you that someone somewhere is holding some gold for you. Well, by all accounts, those "promises" have gone fractional.

Unless you have the actual physical gold buried in your garden or in a bank box which you have the key for, you don't own gold. You own bits of paper.
Been inclined to wander... off the beaten track.
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Oct 17, 2008, 11:27 PM
 
Originally Posted by Doofy View Post
Nothing has gone on with gold. But you don't own gold - you own bits of paper and bytes which tell you that someone somewhere is holding some gold for you. Well, by all accounts, those "promises" have gone fractional.

Unless you have the actual physical gold buried in your garden or in a bank box which you have the key for, you don't own gold. You own bits of paper.
some of us really couldn't care less about that.
     
Doofy
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Oct 17, 2008, 11:43 PM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
some of us really couldn't care less about that.
So why start a thread about gold prices then if you're not interested in what's happening to it?
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moonmonkey
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Oct 18, 2008, 12:33 AM
 
Originally Posted by Doofy View Post
Nothing has gone on with gold. But you don't own gold - you own bits of paper and bytes which tell you that someone somewhere is holding some gold for you. Well, by all accounts, those "promises" have gone fractional.

Unless you have the actual physical gold buried in your garden or in a bank box which you have the key for, you don't own gold. You own bits of paper.
I own Hong Kong gold credits, they will deliver the bullion to any address on the island in an armoured car within 12 hours of my demand.

Hong Kong is nice like that.
     
moonmonkey
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Oct 18, 2008, 12:38 AM
 
Originally Posted by Doofy View Post
Gold's got to go higher, no? What with the US mint stopping bullion production last month and all.
Do you have a link for this news as it seems bit unlikely.
     
turtle777
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Oct 18, 2008, 01:37 AM
 
Originally Posted by Doofy View Post
Unless you have the actual physical gold buried in your garden or in a bank box which you have the key for, you don't own gold. You own bits of paper.
If you want to be that anal, maybe even scratch the "paper".

All you own is bits.

Bits of information of your gold holdings.

-t
     
Doofy
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Oct 18, 2008, 06:48 AM
 
Originally Posted by moonmonkey View Post
Do you have a link for this news as it seems bit unlikely.
Here's 225,000 links.

I'm not just making this crap up on the fly, you know.
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Doofy
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Oct 18, 2008, 06:58 AM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
If you want to be that anal
I'm not being anal.

I'm saying that "gold" has turned into little slips of paper promising to pay gold if you ask for it and that it's turned fractional. This effectively divorces the gold price from the actual gold (which is why we're seeing spot values drop even though there's a shortage). Quite an important point for gold investors, no?
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Eug  (op)
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Oct 18, 2008, 07:53 AM
 
Originally Posted by Doofy View Post
So why start a thread about gold prices then if you're not interested in what's happening to it?
What's happening is gold prices have dropped. However you don't seem interested in that. You rather try to convince everyone the world's going to end and suddenly every major financial power is going to severely devalue their currency despite no evidence for it besides idle speculation.

Speculation is the cause of the unjustified rise in the first place and now the prices have dropped after the smart speculators took their profits and ran.
( Last edited by Eug; Oct 18, 2008 at 08:02 AM. )
     
Doofy
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Oct 18, 2008, 08:09 AM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
What's happening is gold prices are dropping. However you don't seem interested in that.
Why are gold prices dropping Eug?

At a time when gold is in short supply and many investors are clamouring for the stuff, why is the price going down? It's certainly not following classical supply and demand, as it always has done.

I'm sorry for "shitting" all over your thread. I assumed that since you're interested in investing, you'd be interested in the reasons why prices go up or down. Seems I was wrong and you're simply interested in the numbers and are treating them as if they're separate from world events.

Originally Posted by Eug View Post
You rather try to convince everyone the world's going to end and suddenly every major financial power is going to severely devalue their currency.
I don't need to convince everyone that every major financial power is going to devalue their currency. You can read about that in the newspapers. Assuming you actually read the newspapers and your investing isn't totally divorced from reality, that is.

Originally Posted by Eug View Post
Speculation is the cause of the unjustified rise in the first place and now the prices have dropped after the smart speculators took their profits and ran.
This makes no sense. You're saying that the smart speculators took their profits and ran? Where did they put their profits? In the banks? In shares? In the property market? These are supposed to be smart people? If the speculators sold their gold, why is there a world-wide shortage of the stuff right now?
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moonmonkey
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Oct 18, 2008, 08:58 AM
 
Originally Posted by Doofy View Post
Here's 225,000 links.

I'm not just making this crap up on the fly, you know.
not normally no.
according to the links they have stopped selling gold in coin shapes, this does not equate to stopping production of bullion.

Its like Tescos stopping selling mini Baguettes, this is not an indication of them abandoning the bullish baked goods market.
     
Doofy
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Oct 18, 2008, 10:02 AM
 
Originally Posted by moonmonkey View Post
not normally no.
according to the links they have stopped selling gold in coin shapes, this does not equate to stopping production of bullion.
The reasons given at the time were "a lack of gold". Does the US actually mint bar bullion anyway? If so, I've never seen a bar.
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Oct 18, 2008, 10:14 AM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
What's happening is gold prices have dropped. However you don't seem interested in that. You rather try to convince everyone the world's going to end and suddenly every major financial power is going to severely devalue their currency despite no evidence for it besides idle speculation.

Speculation is the cause of the unjustified rise in the first place and now the prices have dropped after the smart speculators took their profits and ran.
If the world ends, it will be for no other reason than speculation.
     
Eug  (op)
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Oct 18, 2008, 09:08 PM
 
Originally Posted by Doofy View Post
Why are gold prices dropping Eug?
I already answered the question above.

This makes no sense. You're saying that the smart speculators took their profits and ran? Where did they put their profits? In the banks? In shares? In the property market? These are supposed to be smart people?
In cash of course. Those who divested themselves from the markets months ago are now sitting pretty. 4% interest per year looks pretty damn good now to those who are heavily invested in equity and commodities.
     
Eug  (op)
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Oct 21, 2008, 12:03 PM
 
Gold now down to $770.

Oil hovering at around $70 still, after it went up briefly. I might have expected it to go up more with talk of OPEC cutting production, but nope.

As for natural gas, it was at $6.75 at the end of last week. That's about half of where it was a few months ago.



The US$ dollar is going up though, as it is seen as a relative haven. It is now worth 0.59 pounds, 0.76 Euro, and 1.22 CAD$.
     
turtle777
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Oct 21, 2008, 12:41 PM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
Gold now down to $770.

The US$ dollar is going up though, as it is seen as a relative haven. It is now worth 0.59 pounds, 0.76 Euro, and 1.22 CAD$.
Aren't those things related, USD and Gold prices ?

I bet Gold has been pretty steady compared to the EUR.

-t
     
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Oct 21, 2008, 12:45 PM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
Aren't those things related, USD and Gold prices ?

I bet Gold has been pretty steady compared to the EUR.
Yes, US$ and gold prices tend to vary inversely. Here are the per gram prices in US$ and Euros over the last year.



     
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Oct 24, 2008, 07:15 AM
 
Oil: $64.48
Natural gas: $6.35
Gold: $693.34
Canadian dollar: 78.49¢
Euro: $1.2559
     
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Oct 26, 2008, 03:33 AM
 
If I had been trading Forex these last three weeks to six weeks, margined to the moon in $$, instead of equities, I'd be really well off right now. Oh well.

It's funny that economic reality often runs contrary to perceptions and expectations. One would assume that given an American economic downturn investors would flock to gold, but that's not the case. We're in a deflationary environment, which means retreating to gold is a bad idea. As many hedge funds unwind in forced sales and close up shop, we're getting really low stock valuations, low oil and low gold prices. And apparently investors still have enough confidence in the dollar - or at least too much invested in it - to ever abandon it as the reserve currency of the world; if it didn't happen this time around I don't know if anything short of complete economic collapse could. Good for Americans traveling abroad, certainly.

"The natural progress of things is for liberty to yield and government to gain ground." TJ
     
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Oct 26, 2008, 03:56 AM
 
The strength of the dollar is he most surprising aspect of this crisis.

It's unbelievable that all the Fed and Treasury intervention did not "cost" the dollar anything. I wonder if this is attainable.

-t
     
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Oct 26, 2008, 09:57 AM
 
We won't know the true effects on the US$ until later on. I suspect we'll get a better picture of things in 2009, and the US$ will moderate compared to other currencies and to commodities. But yeah, those with lots of US$ cash are doing well.

In a way, I've been doing comparatively well with forex. All my cash is in CAD$ but I bought a few batches of US equity recently, specifically AAPL. In the meantime, the US$ has climbed dramatically vs the CAD$. For example, I bought at $108, and sold at 109, but made 8% profit because of forex.

With that and the even more favourable forex rate now, although I bought my other batch of AAPL at $131, if I sold it at $109 again I'd still make a small profit overall (over the two batches combined). ie. Anything over about $108 for AAPL is gravy for me, as long as the CAD$ continues to stay as low as it is low compared to the US$.
     
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Oct 27, 2008, 12:32 AM
 
Until the market settles down a bit I don't think anything will make sense. People are in a panic to get their money out of the markets and stow it under their mattress.

Sad to say, but if I bought a MacBook Pro at the start of the year, it would be worth more than if I had used that money to buy many stocks. Crazy, even if the world economy looks bleak for a little while.
     
 
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