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lpkmckenna
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Nov 5, 2012, 11:06 AM
 
Originally Posted by Shaddim View Post
No one is going to overturn Roe V Wade, no matter what is said.
You could be right. If the Republicans ever deliver on their promise to destroy RvW, they will lose a substantial portion of voters who vote for them for only that reason.

I'm not sure Romney is making that kind of calculus, though. He seems to be a true believer.
You don't need rockets to deliver nukes. If Top Gear can sneak trucks across borders in the ME, so can Jihadists, or anyone, for that matter.
When I say Iran has no method to deliver nukes, I mean they have no method at all. Their air force can't leave their own airspace because they are surrounded by enemies, and the country is crawling with foreign spies. The West knows virtually everything that is happening in Iran. The country is a total intelligence sieve. A truck delivery from Iran to Israel? Impossible.

And then there's simple reality: if they ever managed to deliver any sort of WMD to Israel (whether a nuke or dirty bomb or a chemical attack), Iran would be turned into a glass parking lot the next day. Iran isn't Russia. This isn't even close to being an issue of "mutually assured destruction," since Iran's attack on anyone else would be a very limited attack on a single city, while all of Iran would be wiped off the map.

The West is not seriously concerned that Iran wants to drop a nuclear bomb on Israel. That's empty posturing. The West is concerned that an Iran with a nuclear weapon would be an impenetrable fortress, impossible to ever invade and achieve regime change. Iran is almost an impenetrable fortress now, being 80%+ mountainous desert terrain.

A nuclear Iran could step up it's already troublesome support to low-level terrorism, and it would be impossible to remove their leaders, and that's the real concern.
     
BadKosh
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Nov 5, 2012, 11:21 AM
 
Originally Posted by lpkmckenna View Post
The President nominates members to the Supreme Court, and Romney would only nominate people who would rip up RvW. I know exactly what I'm talking about here.
NOPE! Still missing the point. He can't direct the SCOTUS to do anything. He may ask, but he has no power to tell them what to do. You fail.
     
lpkmckenna
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Nov 5, 2012, 12:12 PM
 
Originally Posted by BadKosh View Post
NOPE! Still missing the point. He can't direct the SCOTUS to do anything. He may ask, but he has no power to tell them what to do. You fail.
Holy Christ, pedantic much? No, the President can't tell the SC what to do. But yes, he can pick people who will do exactly what he wants.
     
lpkmckenna
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Nov 5, 2012, 12:27 PM
 
Canadian magazine Macleans did a brutal takedown of Nate Silver today. Interesting read. I still think Silver's analysis will ring true on Tuesday.
     
The Final Dakar
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Nov 5, 2012, 12:40 PM
 
Originally Posted by lpkmckenna View Post
Canadian magazine Macleans did a brutal takedown of Nate Silver today. Interesting read. I still think Silver's analysis will ring true on Tuesday.
I'd be more convinced if he took down Silver's election track record, but with only two years of entries I guess there's not much to go on (Though why even bring up the UK thing).

I'd say this is an important election for Silver because after 2008 and 2010 it helps establish a successful trend if he's right, but then some wise-guy on twitter reminded me that political pundits go down in flames all the time, but they never lose their jobs, so Silver will be around to stay for the foreseeable future so long as he generates clicks and buzz.
     
The Final Dakar
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Nov 5, 2012, 01:20 PM
 
BTW, I saw this over the weekend and thought it was hilarious.

     
besson3c
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Nov 5, 2012, 01:25 PM
 
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
BTW, I saw this over the weekend and thought it was hilarious.
Because she is Ed McMahon's wife?
     
Chongo
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Nov 5, 2012, 01:28 PM
 
The SCOTUS doesn't always get things right, Dred Scott is a perfect example, hence the 14th amendment.
     
The Final Dakar
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Nov 5, 2012, 01:28 PM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post

Because she is Ed McMahon's wife?

You are correct sir!
No you're not



Edit:
Originally Posted by Chongo View Post
The SCOTUS doesn't always get things right, Dred Scott is a perfect example, hence the 14th amendment.
lawl
     
Chongo
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Nov 5, 2012, 01:32 PM
 
This won't help either.

http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/video-sandy-victims-beg-help_660345.html

[VIDEO]http://youtu.be/wIlpHw6-JVg[/VIDEO]
     
subego  (op)
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Nov 5, 2012, 05:20 PM
 
Silver has Obama at 91.4% in his model.
     
The Final Dakar
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Nov 5, 2012, 05:57 PM
 
How does that compare with 2008? I can't imagine his chances are better this go around. (But then again Silver's model might be more "confident" after four years)
     
Chongo
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Nov 5, 2012, 06:02 PM
 
Dick Morris' model shows this:

     
The Final Dakar
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Nov 5, 2012, 06:06 PM
 
Originally Posted by Chongo View Post
Dick Morris' model shows this:
Shall we tango?

Do you believe Dick Morris' model?

Regardless, would you care to join us with your prediction in the Shall we play a game thread?
     
subego  (op)
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Nov 5, 2012, 06:36 PM
 
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
How does that compare with 2008? I can't imagine his chances are better this go around. (But then again Silver's model might be more "confident" after four years)
Took me a bit to find it.

98.1% for the 6:17 PM blog entry the day before the election.
     
subego  (op)
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Nov 5, 2012, 06:43 PM
 
He's clearly entering in more polls at the moment.

92.2% chance.
     
Shaddim
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Nov 5, 2012, 06:46 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
He's clearly entering in more polls at the moment.
92.2% chance.
or drinking more beer.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
- Thomas Paine
     
subego  (op)
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Nov 5, 2012, 06:55 PM
 
You need to cleanse the palate after a shotglass full of Mormon tears.
     
Shaddim
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Nov 5, 2012, 07:48 PM
 
or Sharpton sermons.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
- Thomas Paine
     
subego  (op)
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Nov 5, 2012, 07:56 PM
 
I don't think that fits in a shotglass.

New poll entered. Obama down 0.2%. Not time to barbecue the dog quite yet I guess.
     
Shaddim
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Nov 5, 2012, 07:57 PM
 
Most of his sermons come from a shotglass.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
- Thomas Paine
     
subego  (op)
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Nov 5, 2012, 08:25 PM
 
Make that a double, please.
     
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Nov 6, 2012, 12:10 AM
 
Originally Posted by lpkmckenna View Post
Canadian magazine Macleans did a brutal takedown of Nate Silver today. Interesting read. I still think Silver's analysis will ring true on Tuesday.
That takedown is about Silver's model for predicting baseball stats based on past performance. That is not the same thing as what he's doing here, though: He's using an aggregate of imperfect data about one event to create slightly better data about the same event (and then doing a forecast which is basically reversion to the mean with an adjustment for how the economy is going). The criticism of the presidential election model amounts to "not tested enough" - and indeed saying that this election will no be much of a test either, which is the equivalent of dodging the question a bit. If you take this one prediction as 51 predictions (one per state + DC), it provides an interesting test.
The new Mac Pro has up to 30 MB of cache inside the processor itself. That's more than the HD in my first Mac. Somehow I'm still running out of space.
     
lpkmckenna
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Nov 6, 2012, 02:25 AM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
He's clearly entering in more polls at the moment.
92.2% chance.
Wow. I didn't think this would happen.
     
stupendousman
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Nov 6, 2012, 02:56 AM
 
RvW doesn't necessarily have to be "shot down."

Abortion can be kept legal, in the cases of rape, incest or risk to the life of the mother.

Polling shows that despite what the media and the left tells you, the general public doesn't support "the right to choose" as it's defined by them. Most people want strict controls of when and how abortions can be done, even though they don't want them completely illegal in all cases as was the law prior to RvW.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/147734/Americans-Split-Along-Pro-Choice-Pro-Life-Lines.aspx

Since RvW really has nothing to do with the Constitution, was based on lies, and the justices just made it up in order to legislate the case - there's no reason for a more reasonable court to come along and correct what RvW got wrong, or simply rule as it should be that this is a matter for the states to decide as our founders intended.

I really hate it when extremists make claims about stuff they don't seem to know much about, then start to threaten that the world will be set on fire if things are straightened out in ways they don't like. Grow up.
     
Dork.
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Nov 6, 2012, 02:58 AM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Not time to barbecue the dog quite yet I guess.
Ha!

Nate has Obama favored to take Florida this morning, all of a sudden.
     
Dork.
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Nov 6, 2012, 02:59 AM
 
Originally Posted by stupendousman View Post
the Constitution, was based on lies
Selective editing FTW! Maybe I should run for office....
     
Wiskedjak
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Nov 6, 2012, 04:11 AM
 
Originally Posted by stupendousman View Post
Abortion can be kept legal, in the cases of rape, incest or risk to the life of the mother.
Why? We've already learned that, in cases of "legitimate rape", the woman's body will naturally reject the pregnancy. Therefore, no abortion is necessary.



Originally Posted by stupendousman View Post
I really hate it when extremists make claims about stuff they don't seem to know much about, then start to threaten that the world will be set on fire if things are straightened out in ways they don't like.
= irony
     
subego  (op)
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Nov 6, 2012, 05:06 AM
 
Originally Posted by stupendousman View Post
RvW doesn't necessarily have to be "shot down."
Abortion can be kept legal, in the cases of rape, incest or risk to the life of the mother.
Polling shows that despite what the media and the left tells you, the general public doesn't support "the right to choose" as it's defined by them. Most people want strict controls of when and how abortions can be done, even though they don't want them completely illegal in all cases as was the law prior to RvW.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/147734/Americans-Split-Along-Pro-Choice-Pro-Life-Lines.aspx
Since RvW really has nothing to do with the Constitution, was based on lies, and the justices just made it up in order to legislate the case - there's no reason for a more reasonable court to come along and correct what RvW got wrong, or simply rule as it should be that this is a matter for the states to decide as our founders intended.
I really hate it when extremists make claims about stuff they don't seem to know much about, then start to threaten that the world will be set on fire if things are straightened out in ways they don't like. Grow up.
I think the courts have a limited time to get their shit together. If, despite the claims made above, it hasn't been overturned 40 years later, you have to start making allowances for the fact a new precedent has been set.
     
The Final Dakar
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Nov 6, 2012, 05:09 AM
 
So, since like wed or thurs of last week, RCP's national tracker swung from Romney +1 to Obama +0.7, and Romney's favorability lead dwindled two points.

Glad to see Rasmussen standing it's ground at Romney +1.
     
The Final Dakar
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Nov 6, 2012, 06:27 AM
 
Nate Silver:
Running one last projection based on this AM's polls. Our projected margin in Florida now Obama 49.797, Romney 49.775.
Yeah, that's tight.
     
subego  (op)
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Nov 6, 2012, 06:35 AM
 
Silver seems to think Obama has Ohio in the bag though. Isn't that the only one which matters?
     
The Final Dakar
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Nov 6, 2012, 06:42 AM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Silver seems to think Obama has Ohio in the bag though. Isn't that the only one which matters?
Oh yeah. My own map give Romney Florida. I just think it's interesting just how tight Florida is, even on Nate's model.

Edit: It could be any state really. I mean, how does Nate classify this for future models? I wouldn't call such a slight advantage a prediction of an Obama victory by his model.
     
subego  (op)
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Nov 6, 2012, 07:52 AM
 
Are you asking what does he do if in a future election the probabilities for each candidate winning are closer to 50/50?
     
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Nov 6, 2012, 11:16 AM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Silver seems to think Obama has Ohio in the bag though. Isn't that the only one which matters?
It's off the competitive states listing, along with Wisconsin and Nevada. Put those among the previously safe states and his prediction is 271 EC votes safe for Obama - and that's not news to put in the blog at least? Odd.
The new Mac Pro has up to 30 MB of cache inside the processor itself. That's more than the HD in my first Mac. Somehow I'm still running out of space.
     
The Final Dakar
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Nov 6, 2012, 11:37 AM
 
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
Do you believe Dick Morris' model?
Chongo disappears again.
     
The Final Dakar
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Nov 6, 2012, 11:58 AM
 
A bit of humor as I leave work early to cast my ballot for 1000 years of darkness...

     
Shaddim
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Nov 6, 2012, 01:05 PM
 
I went and threw away my vote on a 3rd party (so did the ladies, but on a different one).
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
- Thomas Paine
     
Spheric Harlot
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Nov 6, 2012, 02:12 PM
 
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
A bit of humor as I leave work early to cast my ballot for 1000 years of darkness...

Needs a Santorum reference.
     
lpkmckenna
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Nov 6, 2012, 02:28 PM
 
I forgot how awesome this gif is.

6547/width/350/height/700[/IMG]

BTW, this is a thoroughly awesome comic on the election. The HTML5 animations are very clever.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/interactive/2012/nov/06/america-elect-graphic-novel
     
The Final Dakar
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Nov 6, 2012, 02:56 PM
 
I'm partial to this if Romney wins



     
Shaddim
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Nov 6, 2012, 04:39 PM
 
Nubs. You don't smile when you're dancing Gangnam Style.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
- Thomas Paine
     
The Final Dakar
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Nov 7, 2012, 05:48 AM
 
Originally Posted by Shaddim View Post
Nubs. You don't smile when you're dancing Gangnam Style.
It's Romney, do you really expect him to do it right?
     
The Final Dakar
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Nov 7, 2012, 07:03 AM
 
Just how bad was Rasmussen: CT -10, CO -7, IA -7, NH -7, WI -7, VA -5, NV -4, MI -4, FL -3, NC -3, MN -3, OH -2. Avg: 5.2% off.
     
raleur
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Nov 7, 2012, 07:28 AM
 
A visualization of Mr. Silver's performance:

6555/width/350/height/700[/IMG]

If I did this well in the football pool, I'd quit my job.
     
The Final Dakar
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Nov 7, 2012, 08:20 AM
 
Some explanation of the graph would be helpful.
     
raleur
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Nov 7, 2012, 09:14 AM
 
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
Some explanation of the graph would be helpful.
Sorry! This came from an overzealous (and obviously pro-Obama) designer. I'd have done it differently, but it still works.

The axes are misleading. The vertical axis should read "Percentage of votes for Obama in that state," and the horizontal axis should read "Nate Silver's probability of Obama winning in that state."

So, using North Carolina as an example, Silver predicted that Obama would get 48.9% of the vote, which puts North Carolina just below the 50% line on the vertical axis. Silver also gave Obama a 26% chance of winning, which explains its position on the horizontal axis. As it turns out, Obama got 48.4%.

What's confusing is that there are no points of deviation to help us visualize how close the predictions were- for example, if Silver had predicted more votes for Romney in North Carolina, there would be another point, just north of the NC, that showed where the state actually fell versus Silver's prediction. But the problem is that Silver's predictions were all spot on- there is no deviation, his predictions were almost 100% accurate.
     
 
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