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Election 2020
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Waragainstsleep
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Jul 30, 2020, 11:22 AM
 
Bit early I know.

I feel like the Dems could just hammer home two points and win by a landslide.

Worst drop ever.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/30/e...XAorROOG8BeD7w

and the Covid death toll.

Somehow I suspect this is not what they will do.
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
Thorzdad
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Jul 30, 2020, 11:40 AM
 
I dunno. I think they definitely will hammer on the death toll and/or his sheer incompetence handling the outbreak, simply because there's so much footage of Trump denying there's any problem or outright lying about it. They could, though, leave such attacks to groups like the Lincoln Project and have Biden run as a nice, friendly, hopeful, grownup, which will contrast greatly with Trump's angry toddler act.
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Spheric Harlot
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Jul 30, 2020, 03:31 PM
 
There are bets running that he’ll find a way to cancel the election outright.
     
Thorzdad
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Jul 30, 2020, 04:28 PM
 
I’m pretty sure the laws prohibiting him delaying the election would also prohibit canceling it.

We held elections during the Civil War and WWII. I can’t fathom what reason he might concoct that would make those situations pale in comparison enough to actually warrant canceling the election, and get everyone to sign on.
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reader50
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Jul 30, 2020, 05:51 PM
 
It wouldn't matter. Election or not, The Constitution specifies Trump's term ends at noon on January 20. Without a re-election, he is no longer President as of that time.

A lawyer on YouTube ran through what would happen if the election got skipped.

1. Trump is out at noon. Without a President-Elect, the succession terms are triggered.
2. VP Pence is also out at noon, so the VP office is vacant too.
3. The Speaker of the House is next -- but there is no Speaker. All House terms last 2 years. Without an election, all House seats are now vacant.
4. The President Pro Tempore of the Senate is next. That's the longest-serving Senator of the current majority party. So who is that?
4a. It would be Senator Chuck Grassley (R) except 1/3 of Senate seats are vacant too.
4b. Before Jan 20, state Governors appoint Senators to fill the 1/3 that are vacant.
4c. As most of the missing 1/3 would be appointed by Democrat Governors, Democrats would have the Senate majority on Jan 20.
5. so President Patrick Leahy (D) would be sworn in.
     
Waragainstsleep  (op)
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Jul 30, 2020, 08:00 PM
 
I'm wondering if he has a way to not run without having to announce that he isn't going to run. Like defaulting on an election.
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
andi*pandi
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Jul 30, 2020, 08:56 PM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
It wouldn't matter. Election or not, The Constitution specifies Trump's term ends at noon on January 20. Without a re-election, he is no longer President as of that time.

A lawyer on YouTube ran through what would happen if the election got skipped.

1. Trump is out at noon. Without a President-Elect, the succession terms are triggered.
2. VP Pence is also out at noon, so the VP office is vacant too.
3. The Speaker of the House is next -- but there is no Speaker. All House terms last 2 years. Without an election, all House seats are now vacant.
4. The President Pro Tempore of the Senate is next. That's the longest-serving Senator of the current majority party. So who is that?
4a. It would be Senator Chuck Grassley (R) except 1/3 of Senate seats are vacant too.
4b. Before Jan 20, state Governors appoint Senators to fill the 1/3 that are vacant.
4c. As most of the missing 1/3 would be appointed by Democrat Governors, Democrats would have the Senate majority on Jan 20.
5. so President Patrick Leahy (D) would be sworn in.
This makes excellent sense, except this is an administration who seems to excel in undoing our basic tenets of law and acting like they have the right to do anything. It started with Mitch not allowing Obama to fill a Supreme Court position and has steamrolled from there. Emoluments? no such thing, stay at my hotel, I'll bill the govt. Unfilled vacancies in key roles, effectively hamstringing certain federal operations? No big. The Attourney General acting like the president's personal lawyer? Nominees who never get senate confirmed outstaying their "temporary" position? hahahaha.
     
Waragainstsleep  (op)
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Jul 31, 2020, 12:38 AM
 
Not to mention filling regulatory bodies with industry shills, selling the department of education to Dolores Umbridge and generally draining the swamp so they could refill it from a sewer.
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Spheric Harlot
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Jul 31, 2020, 02:32 AM
 
Add to that right-wing militia and unmarked federal soldiers (yeah, yeah, "agents"...in camo)...

You know how literally *everything* 45 accuses his opponents of is true of himself?

He's already accused the Democrats of staging a coup, more than once.
     
reader50
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Jul 31, 2020, 04:52 AM
 
Two Republican organizations have sprung up against Trump. They believe he's destroying the GOP, and needs to be removed before he finishes the job. Prominent political parties have faded away in the US before, and the GOP could follow. So both groups are in favor of electing Biden. Get Trump out, and rebuild the party while that's still possible.

The Lincoln Project makes creative ads against Trump. Often consisting of interview footage - just letting Trump speak.

Republican Voters against Trump creates interviews of (R) voters who voted for Trump in 2016. Who are ashamed today, and plan to vote for Biden. Usually highlighting how Trump policies go against traditional conservative values.

I can't recall (R) groups ever campaigning for (D) candidates before. Or (D) groups campaigning for (R) candidates. This is new.

Both organizations air their productions in battleground states. It's not clear how much influence they have. Below, a recent Lincoln Project ad: (about 6 minutes)

( Last edited by reader50; Aug 1, 2020 at 04:11 PM. Reason: added Guardian coverage link)
     
Waragainstsleep  (op)
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Jul 31, 2020, 06:14 AM
 
Originally Posted by Spheric Harlot View Post
You know how literally *everything* 45 accuses his opponents of is true of himself?
I'd argue this is a classic conservative trick. My assumption is that if you level the accusation first, no matter how ridiculously untrue it is of your opponent and true it is of you, if they turn around and say "no wait, you're the ones doing that", you sound like a child and its easy to dismiss you.
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Thorzdad
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Jul 31, 2020, 06:49 AM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
1. Trump is out at noon. Without a President-Elect, the succession terms are triggered.
2. VP Pence is also out at noon, so the VP office is vacant too.
3. The Speaker of the House is next -- but there is no Speaker. All House terms last 2 years. Without an election, all House seats are now vacant.
4. The President Pro Tempore of the Senate is next. That's the longest-serving Senator of the current majority party. So who is that?
4a. It would be Senator Chuck Grassley (R) except 1/3 of Senate seats are vacant too.
4b. Before Jan 20, state Governors appoint Senators to fill the 1/3 that are vacant.
4c. As most of the missing 1/3 would be appointed by Democrat Governors, Democrats would have the Senate majority on Jan 20.
5. so President Patrick Leahy (D) would be sworn in.
The ginormous issue with all of that is there is no actual enforcement mechanism that would spring into action to make it happen. And, it pretty much begins and ends with who, exactly, kicks Trump out of the White House, both figuratively and literally? It sure as hell isn't going to be anyone from Justice. Trump is, potentially, in the position to make legally voting him from office appear to be a military coup.
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reader50
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Aug 1, 2020, 04:33 PM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
I can't recall (R) groups ever campaigning for (D) candidates before. Or (D) groups campaigning for (R) candidates. This is new.
New things come in pairs sometimes. A Democrat-friendly PAC has booked $3 million in ads supporting a Republican Senate primary candidate (Kris Kobach) in Kansas. On the theory that he'd be easier to beat in the general election. Republican-friendly PACs responded with a few million in ads supporting the establishment candidate (Roger Marshall).

Politico coverage
But GOP alarm grew after a super PAC with links to Democrats last week began a $3 million, meddling ad campaign aimed at boosting Kobach and damaging Marshall.

Kansas, which hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since the 1930s, is an unlikely battleground. But President Donald Trump’s slide in the polls and a potential Kobach nomination would give Democrats their clearest shot at a seat there in decades — all at a time when Republicans are increasingly concerned about the security of their three-seat majority in the chamber.
The RNC would likely prefer to spend money in battleground states, not Kansas which is usually safe for Republicans. We can all thank the Citizens United SCOTUS decision for removing all meaningful limits on PAC political donations. While I'm against that decision, it's definitely making elections more interesting.
     
OreoCookie
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Aug 1, 2020, 10:29 PM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
New things come in pairs sometimes. A Democrat-friendly PAC has booked $3 million in ads supporting a Republican Senate primary candidate (Kris Kobach) in Kansas. On the theory that he'd be easier to beat in the general election. Republican-friendly PACs responded with a few million in ads supporting the establishment candidate (Roger Marshall).
That’s the American electoral machine on steroids (= tons of money) for ya. Some of these cross-party ads (e. g. from the Lincoln Project or Republicans for Biden) have more legitimacy than others since it is crystal clear who they are and what they want (even if you disagree with them). Meddling into the primaries of the other party is just dirty. But I don’t think people like feeling they constantly bring tables knives to a gun fight. It doesn’t make it right, but there is just too much pull to use the tactics to make up ground. Even technically well-made and well-targeted ads (like from the Lincoln Project), which are based on truth go down the wrong path — calling out the other person for being bad is ultimately not good enough, you have to explain how you want to do it better.
There are IMHO morally legitimate ways to do this (e. g. you won’t confuse an ad by the Lincoln Project)
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
The RNC would likely prefer to spend money in battleground states, not Kansas which is usually safe for Republicans. We can all thank the Citizens United SCOTUS decision for removing all meaningful limits on PAC political donations. While I'm against that decision, it's definitely making elections more interesting.
Bingo, Citizens United is definitely one of the root causes. I reckon at least some conservatives now have second thoughts on whether this was the “win” they had hoped for. The months on end of horse race after horse race (first the various primaries, then e. g. who will become VP on the ticket, then the elections themselves) that consume tons of money for — in the end — nothing. What good did Bloombergs tens and tens of millions do? I reckon the population would have been better off if he paid that amount to the tax man. Or, politically speaking, backed particular Senate races. (If I were him in the US climate and weren’t grossed out by spending this kind of money on political campaigns, I would have invested it to defeat Mitch McConnell.)
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OreoCookie
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Aug 1, 2020, 10:35 PM
 
Originally Posted by Thorzdad View Post
The ginormous issue with all of that is there is no actual enforcement mechanism that would spring into action to make it happen. And, it pretty much begins and ends with who, exactly, kicks Trump out of the White House, both figuratively and literally? It sure as hell isn't going to be anyone from Justice. Trump is, potentially, in the position to make legally voting him from office appear to be a military coup.
I’m more concerned with what being foreshadowed already: there will be a huge problem with mail-in ballots. It is not 100 % obvious to me whether one party will have a systematic advantage, although locally it will. But what this will do in my estimation is cast doubt on the outcome no matter whether you voted Republican or Democrat. If you buy Trump’s line, hook and sinker, you will see lots of mail-in ballot fraud everywhere, even though there is no evidence of wide-spread abuse. (And the last cases were perpetrated by shady GOP operatives …) On the other side of the aisle people will point towards what has happened in 2000 in Florida — where you don’t even know the precise vote tally (IMHO this is easily one of the worst Supreme Court decisions in history). People need faith in the electoral process. And while you can’t tamp down on stupid conspiracy theories, you can make sure that the voting process is protected.
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Waragainstsleep  (op)
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Aug 2, 2020, 05:26 AM
 
I heard the Trump donor who is running the postal service has implemented new regulations that have caused a huge delivery backlog and postal workers are now concerned that mail in ballots will be delayed. So Trump is trying to make his claim of mail-in voter fraud come true himself.
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
subego
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Aug 2, 2020, 07:05 AM
 
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
I heard the Trump donor who is running the postal service has implemented new regulations that have caused a huge delivery backlog and postal workers are now concerned that mail in ballots will be delayed. So Trump is trying to make his claim of mail-in voter fraud come true himself.
http://forums.macnn.com/showthread.php?t=528490
     
Thorzdad
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Aug 2, 2020, 08:26 AM
 
Our local post office has started running two trucks on our route. Assumedly, the second truck is delivering the mail that the first truck has to leave behind, as it comes through about 30-45 minutes after the first delivery. I'd like to imagine our local post office is doing a creative end-run around the PMG's rubbish delivery order. But, man, do those trucks fly through the neighborhood now. Those poor people must really be under a time crunch.
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subego
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Aug 2, 2020, 08:31 AM
 
Originally Posted by Thorzdad View Post
Our local post office has started running two trucks on our route. Assumedly, the second truck is delivering the mail that the first truck has to leave behind, as it comes through about 30-45 minutes after the first delivery. I'd like to imagine our local post office is doing a creative end-run around the PMG's rubbish delivery order. But, man, do those trucks fly through the neighborhood now. Those poor people must really be under a time crunch.
http://forums.macnn.com/showthread.php?t=528490
     
reader50
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Sep 13, 2020, 12:12 PM
 
Roger Stone got his pardon (commutation actually) for staying loyal to Trump. This was a good move, as he's now advised Trump on how to handle an election loss.
Roger Stone is making baseless accusations of widespread voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election and is urging Donald Trump to consider several draconian measures to stay in power, including having federal authorities seize ballots in Nevada, having FBI agents and Republican state officials “physically” block voting under the pretext of preventing voter fraud, using martial law or the Insurrection Act to carry out widespread arrests, and nationalizing state police forces.
Guardian coverage
Daily Beast coverage

What a sweet heart. Almost as good as Soviet ballots, where you can vote for their candidate, or their candidate.

There is one bug in the plan though. It appears Trump has blown most of his campaign funds. I'm sure the 1% he gave generous tax cuts to, will pitch in right away.
     
Thorzdad
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Sep 13, 2020, 03:02 PM
 
The crazy has gotten to where I won’t be surprised by anything this administration might try to pull, election-wise.
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Sep 13, 2020, 03:03 PM
 
From what I’m hearing currently, a lot of those “deep pockets” he has depended on in the past are suddenly empty - for him, at least.

Glenn -----OTR/L, MOT, Tx
     
subego
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Sep 13, 2020, 10:22 PM
 
Hot Take™

What a felon says to Alex Jones probably isn’t worth paying attention to.
     
Laminar
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Sep 14, 2020, 10:18 AM
 
I fully anticipate large trucks with NRA stickers "patrolling" voting locations.
     
Thorzdad
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Sep 14, 2020, 12:25 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
What a felon says to Alex Jones probably isn’t worth paying attention to.
If it were anyone other than Roger Stone, I'd be inclined to agree. But, Roger Stone is (still) a highly influential person in conservative circles, largely because he's been the movement's fixer/dirty-trickster who pretty much wrote the book on how to effectively rat-f**k american politics. His words shouldn't be so blithely dismissed.
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subego
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Sep 14, 2020, 12:48 PM
 
Originally Posted by Thorzdad View Post
If it were anyone other than Roger Stone, I'd be inclined to agree. But, Roger Stone is (still) a highly influential person in conservative circles, largely because he's been the movement's fixer/dirty-trickster who pretty much wrote the book on how to effectively rat-f**k american politics. His words shouldn't be so blithely dismissed.
He’s also a massive troll with an overdeveloped fantasy life.
     
Spheric Harlot
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Sep 14, 2020, 12:57 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
He’s also a massive troll with an overdeveloped fantasy life.
Yes, but so is Alex Jones, and goddammit, there are enough total kooks who believe every turd that escapes from his mouth.

Not to speak of Trump.
     
subego
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Sep 14, 2020, 12:59 PM
 
Originally Posted by Spheric Harlot View Post
Yes, but so is Alex Jones, and goddammit, there are enough total kooks who believe every turd that escapes from his mouth.

Not to speak of Trump.
Believing marshal law is swell is much different from actually doing it.
     
subego
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Sep 14, 2020, 01:21 PM
 
Also, wasn’t the whole idea to deplatform Jones? I had pretty much forgotten about the guy until The Guardian reminded me.
     
Spheric Harlot
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Sep 14, 2020, 01:33 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Believing marshal law is swell is much different from actually doing it.
Marshal law.

Martial law.

Marital law.

So close. Yet worlds apart.
     
subego
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Sep 14, 2020, 01:36 PM
 
I was in a hurry.


Edit: the funny thing is I checked it because I knew I’d spell it wrong.

Then spelled it wrong anyway.
     
Waragainstsleep  (op)
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Sep 15, 2020, 08:53 AM
 
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
Doc HM
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Sep 15, 2020, 09:15 AM
 
From over the water I've been happily taking bets with people that Trump will not win the election. Biden's strong and growing lead in the polls was making me feel mighty comfortable with that. As Trump flailed around the country acting the ass and sticking foot after foot into his mouth Biden's lead only grew as he stayed quiet in Biden Bunker (TM)
Now as the final weeks roll rounds every time I see Biden I think "dear god are there really touting this as the best chance to beat Trump?"

My new prediction is Trump wins again. And that's firmly on the Dems. Was that really the best you got?
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Sep 15, 2020, 12:18 PM
 
Trump recently ran an ad to Support Our Troops. Including a nice pic of rifle-bearing troops in the foreground, with supporting fighter jets overhead.

Problem: the fighter jets were MiG-29s, and one of the rifles is definitely an AK-47.

When reporters called to ask about it, the ad was pulled down. Neither the Trump campaign, nor the RNC has been willing to comment.

@Doc, note that Trump's campaign is almost broke, while Biden is doing record fundraising. Money is a problem in US elections, but it could make this election interesting. Biden recently ran an ad in Florida, targeting Trump on Social Security. Trump's campaign didn't have the spare cash to respond. So the ad went unchallenged.
( Last edited by reader50; Sep 15, 2020 at 01:04 PM. Reason: added ad link)
     
Waragainstsleep  (op)
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Sep 16, 2020, 10:05 AM
 
Biden needs to spend that cash.

Big noise about 200000 dead from Trump screwing up Covid, Big noise about that thing the other day with him calling dead soldiers losers. Really stick the knife in. Something about him being frail and dumb as a bag of crap too.
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Sep 16, 2020, 10:44 AM
 
Trump did an ABC town hall, and it did not go great for him. The townies were not hand-picked toadies, so fox news called it an ambush.
     
subego
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Sep 29, 2020, 01:28 AM
 
Am I the only one who thinks Biden is starting to sound like an ASMR tape?
     
Laminar
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Sep 29, 2020, 06:34 PM
 
Is he rubbing his fingernails against the mic?
     
Doc HM
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Sep 30, 2020, 08:45 AM
 
So pretty much a dumpster fire then.

On the plus side (and good for Biden) was Trump ranted so long and so hard Biden had no time left to mess up himself.

Not sure why people are so surprised a Fox News employee would end up giving trump the mic so much, however as a strategy to promote trump more time to speak is a margin call at best.
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subego
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Sep 30, 2020, 09:38 AM
 
The right-wingers I listened to hated Wallace. They thought he was covering for Biden’s incoherence. By the end of the night Wallace was part of the Jewish conspiracy.

I only watched 10 seconds of it and God almighty they both look like shit.
     
andi*pandi
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Sep 30, 2020, 10:14 AM
 
Trump managed to sound coherent and presidential for the first 2 minutes. Then he went immediately into attack mode, twitter style, angry, interrupting... ugh. Joe did ok, I think he was told not to engage or get angry but appear reasonable, caring, and non-crazy. That said I cringed when he was trying to say something and was interrupted aggressively every 3 seconds. Wallace needed to stop that. Trump rampaged about Hunter, and Joe made the point he wasn't bringing up Trump's kids, but he could.

The format was also completely wrong - the 2 minutes each were fine, but then it became a freeforall when plainly no one ever taught Trump to take turns.

Moderators need an electric zap to stop interruptions.
     
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Sep 30, 2020, 10:31 AM
 
Originally Posted by andi*pandi View Post
Trump managed to sound coherent and presidential for the first 2 minutes. Then he went immediately into attack mode, twitter style, angry, interrupting... ugh. Joe did ok, I think he was told not to engage or get angry but appear reasonable, caring, and non-crazy.
Trump was spraying everyone his shit in every direction, not sticking to simple rules and courtesy. If he were in primary school, he'd be sent to the principal's office for his antics. I think the problem for Biden was that no matter how he would have reacted, he would have been showered in it and something did indeed stick to him. To be honest, I don't envy Biden. Trump is supremely skilled at provocation and evasion, and is shameless.
Originally Posted by andi*pandi View Post
Moderators need an electric zap to stop interruptions.
Or turn the mics of when it isn't their turn. Wallace clearly did not have the debate under control.
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subego
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Sep 30, 2020, 10:32 AM
 
Originally Posted by andi*pandi View Post
Moderators need an electric zap to stop interruptions.
Or just a switch to cut-off the mic.
( Last edited by subego; Oct 1, 2020 at 04:42 AM. )
     
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Sep 30, 2020, 04:36 PM
 
     
   
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