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tdominey · Mar 16, 2001, 10:08 AM

Hey everyone --

I happened to get someone on the horn in tech support @ Apple, and while we were working through a troubleshooting routine, we started chatting about OSX coming out. To my surprise, he answered my question when I asked approximately how many copies of OS X have been pre-ordered (up to yesterday, 3/15).

Answer: circa 40,000

Gametes · Mar 16, 2001, 10:10 AM

Didn't they sell 100,000 Betas?
If so, this is not only not good news, but it's actually really bad news.
Unless of course he meant he personally had sold 40,000...

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pegges · Mar 16, 2001, 10:15 AM

I was given the loose quote "hundreds of thousands" by an Apple sales rep. I didn't follow that up, though.

tanhauser · Mar 16, 2001, 10:21 AM

Yeah I spoke with an Apple rep this morning and she told me they had 'thousands' of pre-orders already in just for Sweden alone, so I imagine that 40,000 figure might not be the final number.

F

boticario · Mar 16, 2001, 10:23 AM

They offered a discount to all beta testers. So we must think they sold at least 100,000 copies.

And don't forget they are "creating expectation" on march 24, so there'll be a lot of people that just ordered their copies and never tried the beta.

Don't know if they will speak about numbers someday...

Nonsuch · Mar 16, 2001, 10:36 AM

He may have just been referring to the number of orders taken at just the Apple store. Lots of folks won't be buying directly from them, as those of us who aren't eligible for the beta tester or education discounts can get it cheaper at places like MacMall. I'm sure the total number of sales will well exceed the public beta figures.

The Evener · Mar 17, 2001, 02:58 AM

I think we should keep in mind that we're taking about "pre-orders." Mac fans can be a loyal bunch, but I suspect many users will be content to hold on to their cash and part with it once they have a box of OS X in their hands after visiting a local reseller. Additionally, I pre-ordered my copy of OS X with my campus computer store, while many others may have used other sites such as Outpost.com, so naturally those number won't show up on Apple's board. Keep in mind that the Beta sold roughly around 100,000 over a couple of months at least, and there was no pre-order option available for it -- it just appeared after the Paris expo. Besides, the 40,000 figure is one that could be floating among some front-line employees -- I'm not sure if their system would register an up-to-the-minute tally as they take orders over the phone.

kelix · Mar 17, 2001, 04:31 AM

There is someting like 780,000 units out there that meet the minimum requirements for os x... i presume that at elast 600,000 will get os x! so yea will kick the #^$% outa the PB

krove · Mar 17, 2001, 05:01 AM

Originally posted by kelix:
There is someting like 780,000 units out there that meet the minimum requirements for os x... i presume that at elast 600,000 will get os x! so yea will kick the #^$% outa the PB

780,000 units? What are you kidding? Apple sold that many iMacs in the first 6 months or something. The figure is somewhere in the millions of units and I bet less than 30% upgrade (probably somewhere around 10-15%). OS X's biggest punch will arrive pre-installed on machines come Macworld NY 2001...

krove

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*The next sentence is entirely true...
*The previous sentence is most decidedly false...

Mar 17, 2001, 05:01 AM

Kelix,

Apple has sold over 4 million imacs alone (which all meet the minimum requirements), not to mention all the powerbook g3s, and powermac g3/g4s out there. I would imagine that about two thirds *being optimistic* of those users will upgrade within six months, and about two thirds of those people would actually pay for it . so the sails figures for it will probably be somewhere in the neighbourhood of 2 - 3 million by the end of the year.

Cobra · Mar 17, 2001, 09:32 AM

Well, not al of the iMacs meet the ram requirements.

So technically, there are not that many iMacs that meet the minimum requirements.

Ram is cheap but how many people will add more ram for OS X?

Many people are not like us who read and post on these forums.

I would venture to guess that the average ram on all the peoples systems that post here is a 192 MB on average. I have 256 MB.

Just my 2 cents.

Cobra

Cobra · Mar 17, 2001, 09:35 AM

Besides, I fear that there will be more than a few doing the Carracho or hotline thing to get it anyways.

Sad but true.

Losers.

Cobra

Mar 17, 2001, 09:40 AM

840,000

Agent69 · Mar 17, 2001, 09:47 AM

Don't forget the three people who bought Cubes!

Agent69

P.S. I am a happy Cube owner.

voodoo · Mar 17, 2001, 12:59 PM

Apple has been selling G3s since 1997 - for four years! - and every single unit is OS X ready. Except for the original PowerBook G3. And G3s with less than 128 MB.

So, where do we stand then?

There are for certain over 5 million OS X ready Macs. (we have about 10 of worldwide home computers which are ca. 100 million).

Half will switch to OS X. = 2.5 million users.

But it is my belief that most users will get OS X with new Macs this summer and beyond. It is then you can get it for free and have a good excuse to buy a new Mac!

mindwaves · Mar 17, 2001, 01:06 PM

I believe that Apple has sold about 80,000 or so copies already becase they havent advertised it yet. I am one of the few people who post here who has 128 megs of RAM. Sad but true, but I cannot afford (right now) any more RAM.

Gametes · Mar 17, 2001, 01:06 PM

Ya I'm gonna go ahead and say that about 1/3 will upgrade, with the rest waiting till they buy a new Mac in the coming years.
Of this 1/3, 1/3 will wait till summer, 1/3 will fall in eventually, and the remaining 1/3 (1/9 of all capable Macs) are the people ready to early adopt.

1.2 million.

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DaveGee · Mar 17, 2001, 01:13 PM

Originally posted by mindwaves:
I believe that Apple has sold about 80,000 or so copies already becase they havent advertised it yet. I am one of the few people who post here who has 128 megs of RAM. Sad but true, but I cannot afford (right now) any more RAM.

Hmmm... Well save up...

I just got another 256MB (1 DIMM) for $89.00 now I'm up to 896MB of RAM (wahoo) - It aint gonna get too much cheeper than that.... Then again, one should never say never.

D.

Macnerd · Mar 19, 2001, 11:02 AM

Originally posted by tdominey:
Hey everyone --

I happened to get someone on the horn in tech support @ Apple, and while we were working through a troubleshooting routine, we started chatting about OSX coming out. To my surprise, he answered my question when I asked approximately how many copies of OS X have been pre-ordered (up to yesterday, 3/15).

Answer: circa 40,000

I see this as highly unlikely. I'll be at the Micro Anvika/OSX Midnight release party in London and was speaking to the store about it today. They have 1000 copies coming in, so I would assume that the entire Global Mac market must provide orders well in excess of that figure. There are 58 Million Mac users Worldwide (or so I hear) and I would assume that a decent amount of them have the HW requirements to use this OS. None of us will know how many copies of OSX were pre-sold (not sure if this means to dealers & End users too) until Jobs comes on stage at MWNY, but if it is 40,000 don't expect him to be smiling.

M

Mar 19, 2001, 07:03 PM

I believe that Apple has sold about 80,000 or so copies already becase they havent advertised it yet. I am one of the few people who post here who has 128 megs of RAM. Sad but true, but I cannot afford (right now) any more RAM.

I mean you no disrespect, Mindwaves, but you could have afforded yourself a big fat 512 MB ram chip for your computer and had money left over if you'd been asking people "do you want fries with that?" instead of posting ~1000 times to this message board...

muchfresh · Mar 19, 2001, 07:17 PM

I could belive 40,000 units for the US Apple store. lets assume that the Apple online store counts for half US sales (catalog and VARS), that adds another 40,000 units. Lets then assume the US counts for half of Apple worlwide, add another 80,000.

My preorder prediction: 160,000 copies!
MWNY prediction 500,000 copies

Big Mac · Mar 19, 2001, 07:25 PM

My Order Acknowledgement (snail mail) and my email confirmation state that I am Customer Number 900,007. I ordered fairly recently. Maybe I'm just completely ignorant in this matter, but could that number possibly be the number of pre-orders? I suppose it could be how many people have ordered from the store any product since the beginning of the year, but that figure sounds a bit low. Maybe not. . . Anyone have any opinion?

pathogen · Mar 19, 2001, 09:09 PM

If I'm not mistaken, the 900xxx is your customer number for recent purchasers of anything from the Apple Store online. My number is similar, but its unrelated to OS X.

I think 40,000 is a swell number for pre-orders. Not many people pre-order. The Beta was available on the shelf too and was available for a number of months, so 100,000 for the PB's life shows that 40,000 is a reasonable pre-order for something that is not getting much of a marketing push from Apple (relatively as opposed to itunes or the new imacs) and doesn't have many new, optimized apps.

I bet by October, it will have sold in the millions, but I can't say if that would be more than 2 million worldwide by christmas... time will tell I guess. Also depends on the new macs (how good the new hardware is) that ship with it as their OS.

[This message has been edited by pathogen (edited 03-19-2001).]

mindwaves · Mar 19, 2001, 09:11 PM

Originally posted by Big Mac:
My Order Acknowledgement (snail mail) and my email confirmation state that I am Customer Number 900,007. I ordered fairly recently. Maybe I'm just completely ignorant in this matter, but could that number possibly be the number of pre-orders? I suppose it could be how many people have ordered from the store any product since the beginning of the year, but that figure sounds a bit low. Maybe not. . . Anyone have any opinion?

I just checked and I am customer 900,007 too. Maybe we are the same peerson. LOL j/k

Mar 20, 2001, 12:33 AM

I was shocked that apple managed to sell 100,000 copies of OS X beta given the real complexity of getting any work done with carbon apps under beta (part of me still doesn't buy that number). These boards notwithstanding, I have yet to meet a normal person out there in the world who has ever even heard of OS X. When I bring it up to clients who are theoretically computer savvy --I just get blank stares. So if even the 40,000 figure is correct for presales, I would be really surprised. With almost zero marketing that would be a hell of an accomplishment.