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Election 2020
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Waragainstsleep
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Jul 30, 2020, 11:22 AM
 
Bit early I know.

I feel like the Dems could just hammer home two points and win by a landslide.

Worst drop ever.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/30/e...XAorROOG8BeD7w

and the Covid death toll.

Somehow I suspect this is not what they will do.
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
Thorzdad
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Jul 30, 2020, 11:40 AM
 
I dunno. I think they definitely will hammer on the death toll and/or his sheer incompetence handling the outbreak, simply because there's so much footage of Trump denying there's any problem or outright lying about it. They could, though, leave such attacks to groups like the Lincoln Project and have Biden run as a nice, friendly, hopeful, grownup, which will contrast greatly with Trump's angry toddler act.
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Spheric Harlot
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Jul 30, 2020, 03:31 PM
 
There are bets running that he’ll find a way to cancel the election outright.
     
Thorzdad
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Jul 30, 2020, 04:28 PM
 
I’m pretty sure the laws prohibiting him delaying the election would also prohibit canceling it.

We held elections during the Civil War and WWII. I can’t fathom what reason he might concoct that would make those situations pale in comparison enough to actually warrant canceling the election, and get everyone to sign on.
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reader50
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Jul 30, 2020, 05:51 PM
 
It wouldn't matter. Election or not, The Constitution specifies Trump's term ends at noon on January 20. Without a re-election, he is no longer President as of that time.

A lawyer on YouTube ran through what would happen if the election got skipped.

1. Trump is out at noon. Without a President-Elect, the succession terms are triggered.
2. VP Pence is also out at noon, so the VP office is vacant too.
3. The Speaker of the House is next -- but there is no Speaker. All House terms last 2 years. Without an election, all House seats are now vacant.
4. The President Pro Tempore of the Senate is next. That's the longest-serving Senator of the current majority party. So who is that?
4a. It would be Senator Chuck Grassley (R) except 1/3 of Senate seats are vacant too.
4b. Before Jan 20, state Governors appoint Senators to fill the 1/3 that are vacant.
4c. As most of the missing 1/3 would be appointed by Democrat Governors, Democrats would have the Senate majority on Jan 20.
5. so President Patrick Leahy (D) would be sworn in.
     
Waragainstsleep  (op)
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Jul 30, 2020, 08:00 PM
 
I'm wondering if he has a way to not run without having to announce that he isn't going to run. Like defaulting on an election.
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
andi*pandi
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Jul 30, 2020, 08:56 PM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
It wouldn't matter. Election or not, The Constitution specifies Trump's term ends at noon on January 20. Without a re-election, he is no longer President as of that time.

A lawyer on YouTube ran through what would happen if the election got skipped.

1. Trump is out at noon. Without a President-Elect, the succession terms are triggered.
2. VP Pence is also out at noon, so the VP office is vacant too.
3. The Speaker of the House is next -- but there is no Speaker. All House terms last 2 years. Without an election, all House seats are now vacant.
4. The President Pro Tempore of the Senate is next. That's the longest-serving Senator of the current majority party. So who is that?
4a. It would be Senator Chuck Grassley (R) except 1/3 of Senate seats are vacant too.
4b. Before Jan 20, state Governors appoint Senators to fill the 1/3 that are vacant.
4c. As most of the missing 1/3 would be appointed by Democrat Governors, Democrats would have the Senate majority on Jan 20.
5. so President Patrick Leahy (D) would be sworn in.
This makes excellent sense, except this is an administration who seems to excel in undoing our basic tenets of law and acting like they have the right to do anything. It started with Mitch not allowing Obama to fill a Supreme Court position and has steamrolled from there. Emoluments? no such thing, stay at my hotel, I'll bill the govt. Unfilled vacancies in key roles, effectively hamstringing certain federal operations? No big. The Attourney General acting like the president's personal lawyer? Nominees who never get senate confirmed outstaying their "temporary" position? hahahaha.
     
Waragainstsleep  (op)
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Jul 31, 2020, 12:38 AM
 
Not to mention filling regulatory bodies with industry shills, selling the department of education to Dolores Umbridge and generally draining the swamp so they could refill it from a sewer.
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
Spheric Harlot
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Jul 31, 2020, 02:32 AM
 
Add to that right-wing militia and unmarked federal soldiers (yeah, yeah, "agents"...in camo)...

You know how literally *everything* 45 accuses his opponents of is true of himself?

He's already accused the Democrats of staging a coup, more than once.
     
reader50
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Jul 31, 2020, 04:52 AM
 
Two Republican organizations have sprung up against Trump. They believe he's destroying the GOP, and needs to be removed before he finishes the job. Prominent political parties have faded away in the US before, and the GOP could follow. So both groups are in favor of electing Biden. Get Trump out, and rebuild the party while that's still possible.

The Lincoln Project makes creative ads against Trump. Often consisting of interview footage - just letting Trump speak.

Republican Voters against Trump creates interviews of (R) voters who voted for Trump in 2016. Who are ashamed today, and plan to vote for Biden. Usually highlighting how Trump policies go against traditional conservative values.

I can't recall (R) groups ever campaigning for (D) candidates before. Or (D) groups campaigning for (R) candidates. This is new.

Both organizations air their productions in battleground states. It's not clear how much influence they have. Below, a recent Lincoln Project ad: (about 6 minutes)

( Last edited by reader50; Aug 1, 2020 at 04:11 PM. Reason: added Guardian coverage link)
     
Waragainstsleep  (op)
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Jul 31, 2020, 06:14 AM
 
Originally Posted by Spheric Harlot View Post
You know how literally *everything* 45 accuses his opponents of is true of himself?
I'd argue this is a classic conservative trick. My assumption is that if you level the accusation first, no matter how ridiculously untrue it is of your opponent and true it is of you, if they turn around and say "no wait, you're the ones doing that", you sound like a child and its easy to dismiss you.
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
Thorzdad
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Jul 31, 2020, 06:49 AM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
1. Trump is out at noon. Without a President-Elect, the succession terms are triggered.
2. VP Pence is also out at noon, so the VP office is vacant too.
3. The Speaker of the House is next -- but there is no Speaker. All House terms last 2 years. Without an election, all House seats are now vacant.
4. The President Pro Tempore of the Senate is next. That's the longest-serving Senator of the current majority party. So who is that?
4a. It would be Senator Chuck Grassley (R) except 1/3 of Senate seats are vacant too.
4b. Before Jan 20, state Governors appoint Senators to fill the 1/3 that are vacant.
4c. As most of the missing 1/3 would be appointed by Democrat Governors, Democrats would have the Senate majority on Jan 20.
5. so President Patrick Leahy (D) would be sworn in.
The ginormous issue with all of that is there is no actual enforcement mechanism that would spring into action to make it happen. And, it pretty much begins and ends with who, exactly, kicks Trump out of the White House, both figuratively and literally? It sure as hell isn't going to be anyone from Justice. Trump is, potentially, in the position to make legally voting him from office appear to be a military coup.
When I want your opinion,-
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reader50
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Aug 1, 2020, 04:33 PM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
I can't recall (R) groups ever campaigning for (D) candidates before. Or (D) groups campaigning for (R) candidates. This is new.
New things come in pairs sometimes. A Democrat-friendly PAC has booked $3 million in ads supporting a Republican Senate primary candidate (Kris Kobach) in Kansas. On the theory that he'd be easier to beat in the general election. Republican-friendly PACs responded with a few million in ads supporting the establishment candidate (Roger Marshall).

Politico coverage
But GOP alarm grew after a super PAC with links to Democrats last week began a $3 million, meddling ad campaign aimed at boosting Kobach and damaging Marshall.

Kansas, which hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since the 1930s, is an unlikely battleground. But President Donald Trump’s slide in the polls and a potential Kobach nomination would give Democrats their clearest shot at a seat there in decades — all at a time when Republicans are increasingly concerned about the security of their three-seat majority in the chamber.
The RNC would likely prefer to spend money in battleground states, not Kansas which is usually safe for Republicans. We can all thank the Citizens United SCOTUS decision for removing all meaningful limits on PAC political donations. While I'm against that decision, it's definitely making elections more interesting.
     
OreoCookie
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Aug 1, 2020, 10:29 PM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
New things come in pairs sometimes. A Democrat-friendly PAC has booked $3 million in ads supporting a Republican Senate primary candidate (Kris Kobach) in Kansas. On the theory that he'd be easier to beat in the general election. Republican-friendly PACs responded with a few million in ads supporting the establishment candidate (Roger Marshall).
That’s the American electoral machine on steroids (= tons of money) for ya. Some of these cross-party ads (e. g. from the Lincoln Project or Republicans for Biden) have more legitimacy than others since it is crystal clear who they are and what they want (even if you disagree with them). Meddling into the primaries of the other party is just dirty. But I don’t think people like feeling they constantly bring tables knives to a gun fight. It doesn’t make it right, but there is just too much pull to use the tactics to make up ground. Even technically well-made and well-targeted ads (like from the Lincoln Project), which are based on truth go down the wrong path — calling out the other person for being bad is ultimately not good enough, you have to explain how you want to do it better.
There are IMHO morally legitimate ways to do this (e. g. you won’t confuse an ad by the Lincoln Project)
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
The RNC would likely prefer to spend money in battleground states, not Kansas which is usually safe for Republicans. We can all thank the Citizens United SCOTUS decision for removing all meaningful limits on PAC political donations. While I'm against that decision, it's definitely making elections more interesting.
Bingo, Citizens United is definitely one of the root causes. I reckon at least some conservatives now have second thoughts on whether this was the “win” they had hoped for. The months on end of horse race after horse race (first the various primaries, then e. g. who will become VP on the ticket, then the elections themselves) that consume tons of money for — in the end — nothing. What good did Bloombergs tens and tens of millions do? I reckon the population would have been better off if he paid that amount to the tax man. Or, politically speaking, backed particular Senate races. (If I were him in the US climate and weren’t grossed out by spending this kind of money on political campaigns, I would have invested it to defeat Mitch McConnell.)
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OreoCookie
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Aug 1, 2020, 10:35 PM
 
Originally Posted by Thorzdad View Post
The ginormous issue with all of that is there is no actual enforcement mechanism that would spring into action to make it happen. And, it pretty much begins and ends with who, exactly, kicks Trump out of the White House, both figuratively and literally? It sure as hell isn't going to be anyone from Justice. Trump is, potentially, in the position to make legally voting him from office appear to be a military coup.
I’m more concerned with what being foreshadowed already: there will be a huge problem with mail-in ballots. It is not 100 % obvious to me whether one party will have a systematic advantage, although locally it will. But what this will do in my estimation is cast doubt on the outcome no matter whether you voted Republican or Democrat. If you buy Trump’s line, hook and sinker, you will see lots of mail-in ballot fraud everywhere, even though there is no evidence of wide-spread abuse. (And the last cases were perpetrated by shady GOP operatives …) On the other side of the aisle people will point towards what has happened in 2000 in Florida — where you don’t even know the precise vote tally (IMHO this is easily one of the worst Supreme Court decisions in history). People need faith in the electoral process. And while you can’t tamp down on stupid conspiracy theories, you can make sure that the voting process is protected.
I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.
     
Waragainstsleep  (op)
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Aug 2, 2020, 05:26 AM
 
I heard the Trump donor who is running the postal service has implemented new regulations that have caused a huge delivery backlog and postal workers are now concerned that mail in ballots will be delayed. So Trump is trying to make his claim of mail-in voter fraud come true himself.
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
subego
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Aug 2, 2020, 07:05 AM
 
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
I heard the Trump donor who is running the postal service has implemented new regulations that have caused a huge delivery backlog and postal workers are now concerned that mail in ballots will be delayed. So Trump is trying to make his claim of mail-in voter fraud come true himself.
http://forums.macnn.com/showthread.php?t=528490
     
Thorzdad
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Aug 2, 2020, 08:26 AM
 
Our local post office has started running two trucks on our route. Assumedly, the second truck is delivering the mail that the first truck has to leave behind, as it comes through about 30-45 minutes after the first delivery. I'd like to imagine our local post office is doing a creative end-run around the PMG's rubbish delivery order. But, man, do those trucks fly through the neighborhood now. Those poor people must really be under a time crunch.
When I want your opinion,-
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subego
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Aug 2, 2020, 08:31 AM
 
Originally Posted by Thorzdad View Post
Our local post office has started running two trucks on our route. Assumedly, the second truck is delivering the mail that the first truck has to leave behind, as it comes through about 30-45 minutes after the first delivery. I'd like to imagine our local post office is doing a creative end-run around the PMG's rubbish delivery order. But, man, do those trucks fly through the neighborhood now. Those poor people must really be under a time crunch.
http://forums.macnn.com/showthread.php?t=528490
     
   
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