[Eug]

They cut it pretty close, but the US has managed some growth this quarter.

US Q1 GDP revised higher to 0.9 pct growth on exports, business construction - Forbes.com

WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - The U.S. economy grew faster than earlier thought in the first quarter, providing fresh evidence the country may skirt a feared recession. The Commerce Department said a smaller trade deficit and more business construction boosted growth.

The economy grew at a 0.9 percent annualized pace in the first quarter, revised up from the 0.6 percent in the first estimate at the end of last month.

That was only slightly below the 1.0 percent median estimate from economists polled by Thomson Reuters' IFR Markets.

Despite the faster growth, real final sales to domestic purchasers were down 0.1 percent in the revised estimate. That was the weakest performance since 1991 and indicates the slowdown in U.S. demand. It was, however, stronger than the 0.4 percent decline first reported.

So, obviously the US is in tough times, and has a lot of work ahead, but it doesn't seem as bad as what some of the doom-and-gloomers have predicted.

[CRASH HARDDRIVE]

Originally Posted by Eug 

So, obviously the US is in tough times, and has a lot of work ahead, but it doesn't seem as bad as what some of the doom-and-gloomers have predicted.

Funny how that's reminiscent of a certain computer company in Cupertino.

[Kerrigan]

It makes all of those people who said we were headed for something "worse than the Great Depression" seem oh so silllllllly

[peeb]

GDP is not a useful measure.

[Uncle Skeleton]

Maybe we would have been in the great depression if those stimulus checks hadn't prevented it...

[peeb]

GDP is not a useful measure. You need to look at the economic situation of real people, not measures like GDP. GDP does not measure the real economic situation of people, but the notional 'productiveness' of the country as a whole. It's quite possible for GDP to soar while real standards of living plummet.

[CRASH HARDDRIVE]

recession: A period of general economic decline; specifically, a decline in GDP for two or more consecutive quarters.

GDP has always been used as an indicator of recession.

[TheWOAT]

This guy agrees with you Peeb.
Economist challenges government data

By his reckoning, the economy shrank 2.5 percent in the year that ended in March, unemployment is really 13 percent and year-over-year inflation is 7.5 percent.

Government economic data are "out of touch with common experience. That's why people used to believe the numbers but no longer do," Williams said during an interview in his modest one-bedroom apartment near Lake Merritt.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by peeb 

GDP is not a useful measure. You need to look at the economic situation of real people, not measures like GDP.

The GDP measures the situation of the entire country, which just so happens to be composed of real people. To put it another way, it roughly measures the average wealth of the country.

The best you can argue here is that we don't have a number for the per capita GDP yet, but that's a different kettle of fish, since that's not included in the definition of "recession". Furthermore, we know that US hasn't jumped in population by 15% or whatever in the last year, so GDP even without the per capita modifier is still a useful measure, even if it isn't perfect.

[BRussell]

Actually the generally recognized start and end dates of recession in the US are decided upon by the NBER, which uses a variety of measures, and not the "negative growth" definition.

Anyway, using GDP growth as the sole measure of the economy would be like using a person's weight as the sole measure of their health. There are plenty of other indicators - wages, employment, corporate profits, net worth, inflation, etc. - that most people would use to evaluate the state of the economy.

I think what's happening in the US right now is that corporate profits and already-high incomes are driving GDP, while measures that are more broadly distributed, like median income, are doing poorly.

[Eug]

I don't have any 2008 numbers yet, but despite the US housing meltdown in 2007, the estimates by both the IMF and the CIA have the per capita GDP increasing in the US year-over year from 2006 to 2007.

IMF 2006: $43883
IMF 2007: $45845

CIA 2006: $42000
CIA 2007: $45793

Originally Posted by BRussell 

Anyway, using GDP growth as the sole measure of the economy would be like using a person's weight as the sole measure of their health.

That is quite true, but it's interesting to note that actuarial data suggests weight alone is not a useless measure either.

And to further extend the comparison... Would you not be concerned if the average weight of Americans increased year-over-year?

Originally Posted by BRussell 

I think what's happening in the US right now is that corporate profits and already-high incomes are driving GDP, while measures that are more broadly distributed, like median income, are doing poorly.

IIRC, that has been true for a number of years, to an extent. Like I said, it's not a perfect measure, but it's quite an important one nonetheless.

[BRussell]

Originally Posted by Eug 

That is quite true, but it's interesting to note that actuarial data suggests weight alone is not a useless measure either.

And to further extend the comparison... Would you not be concerned if the average weight of Americans increased year-over-year?

Sure, that's why I used that example: Weight is an important metric of health, just like GDP is an important measure of the economy. But there are lots of other measures that any but the most cursory look at health (or the economy) would also take into account.

IIRC, that has been true for a number of years, to an extent. Like I said, it's not a perfect measure, but it's quite an important one nonetheless.

Yes.

[Kerrigan]

Once again, all the pseudo-economic insights which pervade NN are coming into play. Of course GDP is a useful measure of economic growth... it is the defining measurement of economic growth. By definition, a recession is a decrease in GDP to the point of zero or negative growth rates.

You can talk all you want about measures of economic well-being, but these are all necessarily subjective, there are countless such measurements, and they are being invoked in this thread in order to shift the topic of discussion from the matter of fact that the US is not in a recession.

[edit] At least Eug seems to know a thing or two about economics and is keeping all of these baseless digressions at bay.

[BRussell]

Kerrigan, the generally accepted dates of a recession are not determined by a lack of GDP growth. They're determined by the NBER, which says:

The NBER does not define a recession in terms of two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. Rather, a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. For more information, see the latest announcement on how the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee chooses turning points in the Economy and its latest memo, dated 07/17/03.

[Eug]

For the record: I don't know much about economics.

[Zeeb]

Whether we are technically in a recession or not -- it really doesn't matter. Plenty of people are struggling to pay their bills, gas prices are skyrocketing, and food is more expensive. I really don't think the general public is going to be hung up on what any data says. The general consensus is that the economy is "bad". I'd like to see a presidential candidate win saying there is no problem with the economy.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Zeeb 

Whether we are technically in a recession or not -- it really doesn't matter. Plenty of people are struggling to pay their bills, gas prices are skyrocketing, and food is more expensive. I really don't think the general public is going to be hung up on what any data says. The general consensus is that the economy is "bad". I'd like to see a presidential candidate win saying there is no problem with the economy.

I think it does matter.

People were really hung up on the term "recession", and some were actually predicting a deep one too, despite the fact that even most economists predicting a recession were not predicting a deep recession. Personally I think the data proves the moderates right in that the economy, although not in great shape, is more resilient than some were giving it credit for. ie. Things are not as hopeless overall as some of the sky-is-falling types would have proclaimed.

Now I still think the cost of the war is shocking, and the housing situation is still a fiasco, but it's not as if I'm expecting 10% unemployment or anything.

[peeb]

Originally Posted by Kerrigan 

Once again, all the pseudo-economic insights which pervade NN are coming into play. Of course GDP is a useful measure of economic growth... it is the defining measurement of economic growth. By definition, a recession is a decrease in GDP to the point of zero or negative growth rates.

You are correct. My point is that these measures don't correlate well with how people are doing economically.

Originally Posted by Kerrigan 

You can talk all you want about measures of economic well-being, but these are all necessarily subjective,

No, they are not subjective.

[Eug]

In Canada: reportonbusiness.com: Factory cutbacks drive economy to first contraction in five years

Canada's economy contracted in the first quarter of the year, the first time in five years that the country's output shrank outright.

Real gross domestic product declined a harsh 0.3 per cent at an annualized rate, exposing an economy far weaker than economists' projections of 0.5 per cent growth in the first three months of the year.

Canada's contraction stands in stark contrast to the 0.9 per cent expansion registered for the first quarter in the United States, where recession fears weigh heavily.

Excluding the auto sector and its ripple effects elsewhere in the economy, output expanded ever-so-slightly from the previous quarter, the agency said.

However, because Canada's economy is heavily weighted in resources:

Analysts in Canada have recently focused less on real GDP and more on nominal GDP, which doesn't adjust for rising prices. That's because even while economic output stagnates, much of Canada's prosperity is coming from the money earned from rising commodity prices. Nominal GDP rose 4.6 per cent at annualized rates in the first quarter, and personal disposable income also surged.

[ghporter]

Originally Posted by Eug 

I think it does matter.

People were really hung up on the term "recession", and some were actually predicting a deep one too, despite the fact that even most economists predicting a recession were not predicting a deep recession. Personally I think the data proves the moderates right in that the economy, although not in great shape, is more resilient than some were giving it credit for. ie. Things are not as hopeless overall as some of the sky-is-falling types would have proclaimed.

Now I still think the cost of the war is shocking, and the housing situation is still a fiasco, but it's not as if I'm expecting 10% unemployment or anything.

The "sky is falling" attitude is something we have to worry about because a huge part of our economy is driven not by business or sales or incomes, but by speculators who only know how to bargain, and not how the things they speculate on work.

Why is oil so expensive? It's not because it's harder to get crude from the Persian Gulf to the U.S. It's because speculators have their panties in a was over what "might" happen. As if they understood any of it. There are a relatively few people who do well at speculation without hosing everything. But just as speculators hugely inflated the "dot com" bubble in the 90s, and the housing bubble of the past few years, they have gotten absolutely stupid with things like oil and metals.

Gold is NOT worth $1,000 an ounce, but because all the lemmings speculators think the sky is falling, they are willing to pay that much, so it costs that much. And because they thought so little into the future, selling scrap metals to China at what they thought were great prices, those metals' prices spiraled out of control so that even steel, copper and tin are exorbitantly priced today.

So yes, the label is important. If we were going to be "in" a recession there would be no signs around here with "help wanted" on them. There would be no building going on (commercial or residential) and there would be a lot more chaos than we have. We're in a downturn, sure, but not something that should be called a "recession", numbers not withstanding.

[Eug]

reportonbusiness.com: Manufacturing in U.S. still sluggish

A private trade group said Monday manufacturing activity in the United States contracted in May, hobbled by rising costs and weak consumer demand.

The reading of 49.6 for the overall index from the Institute for Supply Management was up from 48.6 per cent in April. It beat economists' expectations of 47.9, according to the consensus estimate of Wall Street economists surveyed by Thomson Financial/IFR, but it was still below a reading of 50, signaling contraction.

reportonbusiness.com: Construction spending in U.S. falls again

Construction spending in the United States fell again in April as home building continued a more than two-year-long slide. The weakness was offset somewhat by an increase in non-residential spending activity which climbed to a record level.

The U.S. Commerce Department said Monday construction activity fell by 0.4 per cent in April after having been down 0.6 per cent in March. Construction has not increased since last September as the building industry continues to be battered by the worst slump in housing in decades.

[ghporter]

...But while construction spending has slipped, it hasn't stopped. Nor has either commercial or residential construction. There are a lot of projects going ahead full-steam around me, with no sign that the economy is stumbling. That tells me a lot, particularly since I remember the recession of the 80s (I got caught in it). Job contraction hasn't been huge. In fact in many areas it's barely noticeable. Not a lot of growth in some markets, but that happens from time to time anyway.

I guess I'm just getting at how un-recession like everything is. It's not "robust" or "booming," but except for fuel and metals prices (and how they affect other prices) being stupid, it's just sort of business as usual. Slow but steady.

[peeb]

I agree - things here at Halliburton look just peachy.

[paul w]

Say what you will, but working in an industry that depends on sales, Americans I deal with are spending less. Thank god for the Europeans and their strong currency...

[turtle777]

So, the US dodged the recession bullet on technical terms.
Nothing the high oil prices and higher cost of living (food etc...) can't still kill.

For many people, survival has still been possible because they started plundering their nest eggs. People withdraw from their 401k's and pension's to make ends meet. How long will this work ? Maybe another quarter or two, who knows.

But fundamentally, this countries economy is NOT in better shape than 4 months ago.

And as far as the housing crisis goes (defaults, foreclosures etc...), the worst is yet to come.

-t

[ghporter]

Fundamentally, this country isn't in worse shape than 4 months ago either. This is the point: if we were in a recession, we would be MUCH worse off. As it is, the housing bubble's burst seems to have leveled off around here (two houses on my street that were on the market for a long time closed within a week of each other), and things are less desperate feeling in the job market as well. Just like the beginning of the downturn, the level off and eventual upturn will be local and regional before it's obvious nationally. This rather sizable bump in all those economic curves will have ripples that are noticed for several years to come, and I hope a couple of those are regulation of people who sell securities and mortgages but aren't licensed to do so (through a loophole or three) and something done about speculators in everything.

[D. S. Troyer]

If you got a job, a house and a stash...no recession.
If you lost all your sh!t and are looking for a nice box in an alley...recession.

What I'm trying to get at is, is that it's all relative. Ya know what I'm sayin'?

[Eug]

Originally Posted by D. S. Troyer 

If you got a job, a house and a stash...no recession.
If you lost all your sh!t and are looking for a nice box in an alley...recession.

What I'm trying to get at is, is that it's all relative. Ya know what I'm sayin'?

Yes we know what you're sayin', but that has little to do with the definition of recession.

We already know that the economy is worse off than it was several years ago. When the economy is worse off, some people lose their ability to spend, or even their jobs. The point is to try to quantify just how bad the economy is.

Some people had claimed that there was going to be this big deep recession, but it simply is not the case. It seems that the moderates were right, in that the economy is hurting, but it's not going to doom the country by any stretch of the imagination. That may be of little consolation to someone who just lost his job, but the one bright light is that perhaps that person might have an easier time finding a new job than he might have, cuz, well, the economy isn't worse.

And even if the country does slip into a true recession, the data suggests it would likely be relatively short and shallow. I think that is very important to keep in mind, esp. on a forum like this where many doom-and-gloomers like to hang out.

[OldManMac]

Ask the 60% of working Americans who make $50K or less annually, and you'll get a real life perspective, while they're trying to figure out what's more important; gas for the car or medical bills, or any of a number of other choices.

[kido331]

Waaahhhhh!!!!!

[CRASH HARDDRIVE]

The "gloom and doomers" have been insisting were in a recession and even a depression since... ALWAYS!

Why is any of this anything new? Look back at ANY YEAR you care to- and see the same people whining about how it's the worst economy ever, the US is doomed, everybody is poor, and everything is hopeless.

Pick a year- any year of the 80's, the 90's (which only suddenly became prosperous times in HINDSIGHT with the gloom and doomers, not while they were whining about how poor they were all through it), any year of the 2000s, and probably any and every year from here on.

Unemployment was at record lows a few years ago, lower than in the 90's that it'd had become fad to insist were the best times ever- and still the gloomers wanted to yell recession.

EVERY YEAR of the 2000's I've had discussions with wingnuts who swear up and down that right now, this minute, it's the great depression all over again- and having to laugh how anyone could think living in (take your pick: 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007...) in any way compares with the depression.

So what the hell is so different about 2008?

It's just another year that the usual crowd is pretending is the worst economic times ever- because at the core of it- they actually WISH that it was, and ALWAYS wish that it is.

[Lint Police]

^^amen.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by CRASH HARDDRIVE 

EVERY YEAR of the 2000's I've had discussions with wingnuts who swear up and down that right now, this minute, it's the great depression all over again

So what's your point ? You talk to wingnuts, and get a nutty opinion.

The fact is: the housing and credit markets are in FAR WORSE shape than anytime after 2000. Even the dotcom bubble burst had not as much impact on the average American, since only those who had money left over for speculation got hit. Yes, the economy cooled down, and jobs got lost, so come collateral damage there, too.

However, the current housing market- and credit crisis hits even those who don't have disposable income for stock speculation. In that respect, the effects of the current crisis ARE worse on the lower and middle class than anything that happened in the previous years.

-t

[stupendousman]

Originally Posted by CRASH HARDDRIVE 

Pick a year- any year of the 80's, the 90's (which only suddenly became prosperous times in HINDSIGHT with the gloom and doomers, not while they were whining about how poor they were all through it), any year of the 2000s, and probably any and every year from here on.

Actually, during our last recession, the mainstream media did everything it could NOT to talk about it and ignore that it was happening. When Dick Cheney mentioned the horrid growth of the economy, he was accused of "talking down" the economy as if his words alone where going to cause a recession (that had already started). The Clinton's denied it (since it started on their watch) and their enablers did everything they could NOT to say a word about it.

I think what you meant to say was "pick a year - when there was a Republican President...". LOL

[Lint Police]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

However, the current housing market- and credit crisis hits even those who don't have disposable income for stock speculation. In that respect, the effects of the current crisis ARE worse on the lower and middle class than anything that happened in the previous years.

-t

So, when is everyone going to stop blaming the president for this problem when in fact it is the people themselves that put themselves into this trouble?

The credit crisis is because lazy, fat Americans have been led to believe that the government will always bail them out when they are in trouble. Spend away, we'll just give you money when you need it.

I know many families that have their house still, and many that don't also. What's the difference? Those that still have their house lived how they could afford, not how they felt they deserved to live. Those in trouble felt the good times would never end, and never saved. This is not the presidents problem. It's a personal responsibility problem that Americans are learning from euphorians. The people that are now promising the world through a false "change" hope.

I will never vote for a marxist. If you think this message from the currently democrat nominee is anything but marxism wrapped to deliver in a cute little "change" package, you are sorely mistaken.

He said over and over tonight, "It is our time." Our time to what? I sure hope it is not our moment in time to become a socialist country like half of the failed world.

America is great for one reason, because we don't follow the rest of the world and the ideological mistakes.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by Lint Police 

So, when is everyone going to stop blaming the president for this problem when in fact it is the people themselves that put themselves into this trouble?

I agree, and I never blamed the president or the banks.

The root of this crisis is greed. People wanted to have more and more, bigger and bigger.

That's why I'm against the government bailing people out of it. Why would I pay the bail out with my tax dollars, while I lived a responsible life, living within my means ?

-t

[Chuckit]

It's an interesting dilemma. You can pay for other people's mistakes and continue to live in a good place with a high standard of living, or you can hold on to what you have but watch it all depreciate in value as the country declines.

Personally, I'm not so fussed about the housing market. I think the correction there is a really good thing, because prices have been completely bonkers for years now. More people being able to afford a home is good in my book. But having a huge swath of the country feeling they're in a recession is a bad thing and is screwing with me personally even though I don't owe a penny to anyone.

[smacintush]

IBDeditorials.com: Editorials, Political Cartoons, and Polls from Investor's Business Daily -- The Economy Isn't Hopeless; It's The Press

[Eug]

Bloomberg.com: Canada will avoid a recession

June 4 (Bloomberg) -- Canada's economy, which unexpectedly shrank in the first quarter, will avoid a recession this year as employment growth buoys consumer spending, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said.

``Given the relatively healthy state of the economy as it entered the slowdown, the impulse of tax cuts and the aggressive monetary policy easing built into the baseline projection, a recession is likely to be avoided,'' the Paris-based OECD said in its semi-annual outlook published today.

Growth will slow to 1.2 percent this year, from 2.7 percent in 2007, the OECD projected. The economy will likely expand 2 percent in 2009. Canadian exporters have been hurt by weaker U.S. consumer demand after the subprime mortgage market collapsed last year, and by the Canadian dollar's appreciation.

Originally Posted by OldManMac 

Ask the 60% of working Americans who make $50K or less annually, and you'll get a real life perspective, while they're trying to figure out what's more important; gas for the car or medical bills, or any of a number of other choices.

That would be true whether or not there is a recession. Even during boom times, if you're making less than $50K, have a family and a mortgage, and don't have great benefits from your workplace, you're still going to have problems especially with increased oil prices.

Originally Posted by smacintush 

IBDeditorials.com: Editorials, Political Cartoons, and Polls from Investor's Business Daily -- The Economy Isn't Hopeless; It's The Press

I agree, but in retrospect it seems the papers in Oct. 1929 were a tad too optimistic too.

[smacintush]

Originally Posted by Eug 

I agree, but in retrospect it seems the papers in Oct. 1929 were a tad too optimistic too.

Too true.

[NZFL]

Wake up guys, it's over! The US economy is falling at a rate that it will take many years to rectify. Looking at global markets and the ever increasing fuel and living expenses the whole world is going into a recess.
Bush has run the US into the ground and skimmed the cream off the top for his cronies. It's Enron on a National scale. If I was in America, I would be very afraid of the future. A Police State where the local Jo has no rights or liberties. A cop on every corner. People working 2 or 3 jobs to survive. It doesn't sound that great to me. The cost this War in the Middle east has cost the American people, not only in the pocket but the soldiers that will not come home and for what? Oil? Is it really worth killing your own kind for cheap oil that is actually not that cheap? There is a propaganda machine in the US that is trying to fool everyone into a false sense of security. It spews Bull Crap to the point of confusion. People listen to half sentences and suddenly have an opinion on a topic that is irrelevant to the real issue. killing poor people to steal their oil in order to keep Your living expenses down is a recipe for doom and disaster. The Romans failed, the Nazis failed, so what makes the American government (Tyranny) think they can do better than the 2 largest and worst empires in modern history.
The people need to vote again, and if they don't get what they voted for (for example with Bush who stole the election or in more accurate terms caused a Political Coup de Tat) you need to revolt. Take back your country. The War is at home, where the people need to take back their country from the few assholes who stole it from you. Americans are living behind an Iron curtain being led by a machine far worse than any imperialistic dictatorship from the past. They have enslaved themselves to Bankers who have more power over the people than the government. The Banks are the root of all evil. The Fed Reserve is a privately owned company, and is not government run at all. Your Taxes on your income is unconstitutional and illegal. The government backs this illegal system because you are all being robbed blind. Here is a good doco to watch, made by Aaron Russo, a famous yank director and producer. He produced such movies like Trading Places with Eddie Murphy and many more. His latest movie will shock all intelligent Americans to the core. It's called, 'America from Freedom to Fascism'. To the not so smart, don't worry instinct should tell you that you are all being lied to and the party is over.
War is an ancient tradition going back to the first fart of civilization. But the one thing most if not all wars have in common is a reason for it in the first place. This latest war in the Middle East is not about Saddam or Osama. It's not about 911 or freedoms of the modern world. It's about the largest Oil reserves in the world (Iraq) and the largest Heroin producing country in the world (Afghanistan). Securing those assets has no national interest other than feeding those fat cockroaches in the White House and their agenda (which surprisingly enough has nothing to do with the general public).
You have the power people. The Consumer has a shed load of power. The voter too. Its now or never.

[Eug]

Heh. It was only a matter of time before a sky-is-falling post appeared.

Just a note on proven oil reserves (2007):

1) Saudi Arabia (260 billion barrels)
2) Canada (179 billion barrels) <-- The biggest supplier of oil to the US.
3) Iraq (115 billion barrels)

[NZFL]

I don't know where yo get your figures from, probably the same place the oil companies get their figures from, plucked out of the sky. At the rate of consumption we are going thru and the ever increasing consumption of such developing countries or should I say monsters like India and China. What little oil is in these 3 listed above has no relevance what so ever. We are running out of oil and there is nothing to replace it with. The Oil age is over and nobody seems to think it will effect them. Keep your head firmly up your proverbial. When man moved from the stone age to bronze age it was not because of a lack of stone. From Bronze to Iron age the same, we did not run out of bronze, Iron to Industrial the same, never actually ran out of anything. And in-conjunction with the moving from 1 age to another the world population has grown with it. Thru discovery of Oil we created pesticides. And in the 1920's and 30's we had a green revolution. Spray the cops and everything dies except the crops. More food, more production, more babies, more people.
No no oil, no pesticides, no food? Savvy? And the power consumption on a global scale cannot be replaced by an alternative source. Gas is running out too. Coal? Great for the environment.
What will replace the oil, so we can keep up food production? Cant eat money dude!
Even if we replace our power with Atomic power stations, there is only enough uranium to power the world for about 4 years.
Replace gas with Hydrogen? It will take over 30 years for the infrastructure to be in place to be affective.
Doom Gloom?
Yup

[ghporter]

NZFL, if you think things are falling that fast, get yourself a parachute. Or an inflatable life raft. Stock up on canned goods and find a good hand-cranked generator, then head for the hills. Those of us who never saw this current downturn as anything to fear will miss you. Maybe.

I'm looking at the results of several people I know who are job hunting, and it's a mixed bag, mostly based on location and the markets where they are. I'm looking at cost of living and how the only things that are really impacting most people are fuel and metals prices. And I'm looking at exactly the same situation from the 1980s. Back then things went through the roof, and a lot of people lost their heads about it. A lot more lost their heads than lost their homes or jobs, by the way. People literally figured "the end of civilization was at hand" and found cabins in the hills. The "survivalist" movement was pretty much built on the firm belief that this was going to radically change all of society throughout the Western world. It didn't. In fact, on looking at the data in retrospect, the "recession" of the 1980s was a real recession, but it didn't become that until AFTER all the doom and gloom press convinced people that it was.

Oh, and we were going to run out of oil, worldwide, by 1994.

[Uncle Skeleton]

This fresh faced recruit is so abe. That wall of text chicken little routine is unmistakable. Here's more from him, on the same topic:
http://forums.macnn.com/95/political...resource-wars/
http://forums.macnn.com/95/political...all-about-oil/
http://forums.macnn.com/95/political...ot-the-answer/
http://forums.macnn.com/95/political...ming-end-soon/
http://forums.macnn.com/95/political...city-politics/
http://forums.macnn.com/95/political...should-glad-w/

Get some new schtick, please.

[turtle777]

Mods, may I request an IP check, please.

I'm sure that if NZFL = abe, he probably used a proxy, but one never knows...

-t

[NZFL]

I don't need a parachute and I don't live in the wups either. You are right with the doom and gloom. It seems to pop up every time something goes pear shaped. But the reality of the oil situation and the way the western world is acquiring it is very much a Nazi way of doing things. The war in Iraq and Afghanistan had nothing to do with the self inflicted wound acquired on Sept 11th. It has everything to do with oil and heroin. Oil from Iraq and Heroin from the Khyber Pass in Afghanistan.
The same happened in Nam, all the dead GI's came home stuffed full of drugs. Heroin Smuggled in Body Bags of GIs Reported by Military Eye Witness
If we are to maintain a society that is oil and drug addicted and to do that at any cost then no matter how much oil you think you have or how strong the dollar is, it is doomed for disaster. It is immoral and everyone knows what the difference between right and wrong is. I don't need to tell anyone that.
Just sit back, fill your face with burgers, drink your tainted water and pretend nothing is wrong. I guess anything outside of America is foreign and who cares eh?
Maybe their are countries out there who have been around a little longer than America, maybe just maybe they have clever people too who can also see their is a fundamental wrong doing going on. If you bother to look outside of America and look at the views of other Nations who have been around for a lot longer that the US you may understand where this is coming from. I am open to discuss anything and I will accept defeat in an argument as long it is viable and not outrageous bull crap.
You are an adolescent nation, only a few hundred years old. It wasn't that long ago you were killing your own kind to free blacks, and now the blacks are the blame for all problems? Have you learned anything from that? And don't fire back with Obama, he won his spot due to a bigger wallet than Hillary.
Don't be offended with adolescence. Everyone has to find their feet in this world and You are just starting to walk. Like a child you want to play with the big boys and found out that corruption and bullying is a good idea. Just like in the playground at school. A gang of dumb kids bullying the others into giving them their pocket money. Sure you get a few bucks and things go well for a time. Sound familiar?
Americas Empire, is falling, and falling fast. Your freedoms are all but gone, Police and fingerprinting, DNA and everything private is gone. A Dictatorship like in the old days.
Rome, Berlin.................
Swings and Round a bouts. Your turn to be the bully for a while. The outcome is going to be the same no matter how clever you think you are. History never lies.

[NZFL]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

Mods, may I request an IP check, please.

I'm sure that if NZFL = abe, he probably used a proxy, but one never knows...

-t

Feeling a little insecure Turtle? I'd stick my neck in if I were you.
If you cant argue (definition of a good conversation) then be stumm.

[ghporter]

Originally Posted by NZFL 

The same happened in Nam, all the dead GI's came home stuffed full of drugs. Heroin Smuggled in Body Bags of GIs Reported by Military Eye Witness

There were instances of heroin and other drugs being smuggled into the U.S. in the remains of Vietnam KIAs. But to say "all the dead GI's came home stuffed full of drugs" is simply false. A number did—probably more than were discovered.

If we were supposedly interested in only oil and heroin, we'd be doing a lot different in Afghanistan. As it is, the Taliban is actually pushing poppy farming. Not as a "cash crop" but rather as a way to poison the West.

I still don't buy your arguments, and I certainly don't buy into your alarmist position. It's simply not that bad. Ugly? Yes indeed. Going down the crapper? Not at all.

[NZFL]

Fair enough, you don't need to buy it at all. Thats the great thing called freedom of speech. Which of course no longer exists in America. So good luck with that eh? In the past 8 years the US has stripped it's people of their self respect and freedoms. In return they have given you back a situation which is not really which ever way you look at positive. It wasn't that long ago that Americans were revered around the World as a great nation. Today the World view is different. It is certainly a different tune we play out here in the rest of the world. America has defined 'insular' and sings a tune no other can follow.
You are now behind an Iron Curtain you built yourself, while the rest of the World tears theirs down.