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Impeachment Odds: Place Your Bets
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andi*pandi
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Jun 13, 2019, 05:59 PM
 
We seem to be inching towards this, as Trump continues to display lack of respect for the constitution, law, etc.

Do we need to make a chart of votes/dates?
     
Thorzdad
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Jun 13, 2019, 06:31 PM
 
I say there’s only a very slight chance that anything impeachment-related gets out of the House. And, if it does, there’s approximately zero chance of any action being taken in the Senate. I have no doubt that Mitch has had the rules scoured to find an excuse to not take action.

Is the Senate required to take up an impeachment from the House? Or, is it merely an option?
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Laminar
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Jun 14, 2019, 01:59 PM
 
Initiating impeachment proceedings allows Democrats more authority in document gathering.

I doubt it will actually happen. They've waffled long enough that Trump has very effectively defined the narrative for the whole thing, and trying for impeachment would probably turn more people against the Democrats. "He's not perfect but he's doing fine, why would you try and divide the country by doing this stupid thing?"
     
turtle777
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Jun 14, 2019, 02:26 PM
 
I can’t wait for the Democrats to focus all their energy on impeachment, just to realize that it’s a dead end. It’s a sure way to lose the 2020 election.
People simply don’t care enough about these kind of political games.

What people DO care about are the economy and immigration.
If the Dems can’t address this beyond impeachment, they have no chance of unseating Trump.

-t
     
reader50
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Jun 14, 2019, 02:43 PM
 
My guess: no impeachment. Mueller could not rule out serious crimes, but could not prove any either. Without that, Trump would have to get careless and leave a smoking gun around.

Trump is always careless, runs his mouth, and makes poor decisions without thinking them through. But his supporters let him get away with it.

I don't see the Senate convicting short of a smoking gun, and I don't see the Dems trying if it wouldn't work.
     
Laminar
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Jun 14, 2019, 03:03 PM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
I can’t wait for the Democrats to focus all their energy on impeachment, just to realize that it’s a dead end. It’s a sure way to lose the 2020 election.
Another great way to lose 2020 will be to toss out some has-been big names and then dilute the options with a whole field of nobodys. Oh wait...
     
andi*pandi  (op)
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Jun 14, 2019, 04:16 PM
 
All those nobodies are just running for cabinet. Anyway, let's have a new thread for the election or dems or whathave you.

On topic, I think Pelosi is waiting for Trump to implode. Yet each time he speaks, plainly saying he'll invite collusion in 2020, or doesn't think Kelly Ann has to apologize for breaking Hatch Act, or some other crazy thing, the bar for acceptable behavior gets lowered.
     
andi*pandi  (op)
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Sep 24, 2019, 05:16 PM
 
Well then, what do I win?

Thank you to the whistleblower who reported Trump's wheeling and dealing with Ukraine, trying to besmirch Biden and looking like a fool.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/pol...A8K/story.html
     
OreoCookie
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Sep 24, 2019, 10:49 PM
 
Originally Posted by Thorzdad View Post
I say there’s only a very slight chance that anything impeachment-related gets out of the House. And, if it does, there’s approximately zero chance of any action being taken in the Senate. I have no doubt that Mitch has had the rules scoured to find an excuse to not take action.
I don't judge the usefulness of impeachment proceedings based on what you think right now the outcome will be. No doubt some members of Congress are too afraid of doing the right thing for fear of not being re-elected, but IMHO that comes with the territory, the US Constitution made that part of your job description.

In fact, there are so many different legitimate avenues for starting Trump's impeachment proceedings, I am surprised it took this long. This includes his business dealings, the fact that he uses the US government to enrich himself (e. g. by holding events at his properties and forcing US military to use his hotels even abroad), continuing with documented cases of obstruction of justice and now abusing his power to weaken a political opponent. All of these should be investigated very carefully and cautiously.

And even if the Senate acquits the President at the end, there will be elections and it could tip many elections. But I think we are jumping to conclusions expecting that they will all tip in favor of Trump.
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reader50
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Sep 26, 2019, 02:40 PM
 
The House Intelligence Committee has released the whistleblower complaint. I haven't found a direct PDF download. You can click on a download link in this story or read the complaint inline here.

The complaint is divided into:
Overall complaint (unclassified - provided in full)
Attachment appendix (declassified with redactions)

I assume the Attachment is more than an appendix, which implies the main attachment content was not released. I'd guess it includes names & dates of officials that corroborated the various details. Perhaps more. I didn't see the whistleblower's name or position anywhere.

The Ukraine call is covered. Followed by administration efforts to conceal the content of the call. The call had been expected to be a routine call, so no special restrictions were placed on monitoring it. Afterwards, the full transcript was moved from regular computer storage to the airgapped system reserved for national security-related calls. Multiple officials criticized this, as the call had no national security content. They also say this isn't the first time records have been moved to the nat-sec system for political reasons.

Guiliani was neck-deep in this, briefing Ukraine advisors on how to help. ie - expedite an investigation, and quickly forward any dirt they could find. The whistleblower is unaware if any investigation existed. The previous Ukraine investigate head was an unqualified political appointee who made unsupported grandiose pronouncements, then later walked them back. He was fired by the new (current) president.

I guess Trump wanted election leverage sooner rather than later. And solicited it on an open call. After suspending US aid to Ukraine before the call. Neither the whistleblower nor officials s/he spoke to knew why the aid was suspended. Seems like Trump ordered the suspension without stating a reason. Though there have been repeated references to seeing if the new Ukraine president will "play ball".
     
Thorzdad
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Sep 26, 2019, 05:56 PM
 
Shades of Nixon. It’s not the act, it’s the coverup.
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andi*pandi  (op)
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Sep 26, 2019, 06:06 PM
 
On a <gasp> private server!!!>!>!>!
     
OreoCookie
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Sep 26, 2019, 09:04 PM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
The House Intelligence Committee has released the whistleblower complaint. I haven't found a direct PDF download. You can click on a download link in this story or read the complaint inline here.
One of the things that is a huge deal is that the whistleblower went through the proper channels and did everything by the book. Otherwise, Trump and his allies would have tried to derail the discussion into “someone from the Deep State is leaking to the Evil MSM again!” and shift the focus away from the substance.
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
The Ukraine call is covered. Followed by administration efforts to conceal the content of the call. The call had been expected to be a routine call, so no special restrictions were placed on monitoring it.
Even the summary is very clear, but obviously the first thing the investigation of the House should do is try and get their hands on the actual transcript.
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
I guess Trump wanted election leverage sooner rather than later. And solicited it on an open call. After suspending US aid to Ukraine before the call. Neither the whistleblower nor officials s/he spoke to knew why the aid was suspended. Seems like Trump ordered the suspension without stating a reason. Though there have been repeated references to seeing if the new Ukraine president will "play ball".
After our date, she stopped replying to my texts. What do you think this might mean?
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Laminar
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Sep 27, 2019, 10:53 AM
 
Apparently, the FBI forgot to visit the Cornell Law
Library. Word for word from the Cornell Law Library Former
United States Attorney General Michael Mukasey tells MSNBC that
not only is Hillary Clinton's private email server illegal, it
"disqualifies" her from holding any federal office. Very
specifically points to one federal law, Title 18. Section
2071.

For those of us who do not have United States Code committed to
memory, here's what it says:

“(a) Whoever willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates,
obliterates, or destroys, or attempts to do so, or, with intent
to do so takes and carries away any record, proceeding, map,
book, paper, document, or other thing, filed or deposited with
any clerk or officer of any court of the United States, or in
any public office, or with any judicial or public officer of the
United States, shall be fined
under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or
both.

(b) Whoever, having the custody of any such record, proceeding, map,
book, document, paper, or other thing, willfully and unlawfully
conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, falsifies, or
destroys the same, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three
years, or both; and shall forfeit his office and be disqualified from holding any
office under the United States. As used in
this subsection, the term “office” does not include the office
held by any person as a retired officer of the Armed Forces of
the United States.”

Yes, it explicitly states "shall forfeit his office and be disqualified from holding any office under the United States."

Shouldn't voters know that?
The media won't tell them.
So it's up to us.
Trivia contest: Which friend of ours posted that quote here in these very fora on October 6, 2016?
     
reader50
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Sep 28, 2019, 12:10 AM
 
Good catch. Trump administration removal / concealment of the call transcript on nat-sec system (and subsequent concealment of the whistleblower complaint) might be actionable.

Or were you referring to Scott Pruitt's use of private email while serving as EPA chief? Surely you aren't holding up Hillary as a strawman again, seeing as she was not sworn in, holds no administrative position, and is not believed to have participated in the Ukraine call?
     
Thorzdad
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Sep 28, 2019, 07:51 PM
 
Apparently, the dregs of 4chan are going all-in on finding and outing the whistleblower. Here’s a WaPo story on the 4chan thing. This crap is going to get really ugly, I fear.
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reader50
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Sep 28, 2019, 10:32 PM
 
I'm not understanding Trump's supporters in this. What method would they approve of for reporting the President committing a crime? Using the legal whistleblower channels is apparently not enough - this complaint was certified by the Inspector General for the Intelligence Community. And the IG in question was appointed by Trump.

Does a valid complaint require a supporting signature from God? What complaint method would they support? Or should US Presidents be given a license to commit any crime without investigation or consequence? Note that if Trump is given a crime license, all future Democrat Presidents will inherit the license.
     
Thorzdad
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Sep 29, 2019, 08:13 AM
 
I think their belief is that he hasn't committed a crime. And/or they have no issue with Trump getting political help from a foreign nation. They've so tightly tied their personal identities to Trump that he, pretty literally, cannot do any wrong in their eyes.
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Waragainstsleep
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Sep 29, 2019, 12:01 PM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
should US Presidents be given a license to commit any crime without investigation or consequence? Note that if Trump is given a crime license, all future Democrat Presidents will inherit the license.
No, only Republican presidents will get one from Trump supporters.

This is where the argument "they're all as bad as each other" had always fallen down. Republicans will let Republican politicians get away with all sorts of shit, Democrats will sack theirs for overstepping. Same with the media, liberal goes after Dem wrongdoers from time to time, conservative is just mindlessly championing their guys. Its another form of corruption really.
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
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Sep 30, 2019, 02:15 AM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
I'm not understanding Trump's supporters in this. What method would they approve of for reporting the President committing a crime? Using the legal whistleblower channels is apparently not enough - this complaint was certified by the Inspector General for the Intelligence Community. And the IG in question was appointed by Trump.
I don't claim to understand them either, but I understand that it is not about how this complaint was submitted. If there had been another Snowden, they'd focus on that person being a traitor to the country. And now the argument is that (s)he is not really a whistleblower (because ???). The GOP has become Trump's party, and Trump's approval numbers are evidence that his support amongst his smallish base has been stable despite the plethora of scandals. An attack on Trump is perceived as an illegitimate attack on the GOP and “conservatives” at large, i. e. an attack on them. And they haven't done anything wrong, even though everyone, especially the “main stream media”, is telling them that they have. They feel under attack, and letting go of Trump means admitting to themselves that the “main stream media” was right all along and they allowed themselves to be conned.

Once the whistleblower's identity has been revealed, I am sure the fact that their mother-in-law donated to Democratic candidates at one point in the 1990s is seen as evidence of illegitimate liberal bias in the intelligence community.
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
Does a valid complaint require a supporting signature from God? What complaint method would they support? Or should US Presidents be given a license to commit any crime without investigation or consequence? Note that if Trump is given a crime license, all future Democrat Presidents will inherit the license.
Yeah, but I think the argument here is: right now, we don't have a Democratic President, so what do you want? And when a Democrat becomes president, that still doesn't exclude them from complaining about it.
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reader50
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Oct 3, 2019, 01:04 PM
 
Umm.
As he left the White House for a visit to Florida, Trump told reporters he believed Beijing should investigate Biden and his businessman son Hunter Biden despite there being no evidence of wrongdoing by the former vice president or his son.

"And by the way, likewise, China should start an investigation into the Bidens. Because what happened in China is just about as bad as what happened with Ukraine," Trump said.
...
Trump said he hadn't directly asked Chinese President Xi Jinping to investigate the Bidens but it is "certainly something we could start thinking about".
First rule of holes: stop digging. Oh, and encouraging China to help his re-election might work a lot better, if Trump hadn't launched a trade war against China. You know, that easy-to-win trade war that's been going for over a year now, with no end in sight. Fresh rounds of tariffs announced every few months.

For the curious: Hunter Biden (Joe Biden's son) served on the board of a Ukraine gas company from 2014-2018. That company was investigated - but only for actions from 2010-2012. There was no overlap with Hunter.

My impression is Joe Biden arranged cushy job(s) for his son - Hunter reportedly has no experience with natural gas. It would not surprise me if he never attended a board meeting in Ukraine. Just cashed those checks. Funny how neither you nor I get offered these paying board seats to pad our résumés.
     
OreoCookie
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Oct 3, 2019, 09:44 PM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
First rule of holes: stop digging. Oh, and encouraging China to help his re-election might work a lot better, if Trump hadn't launched a trade war against China. You know, that easy-to-win trade war that's been going for over a year now, with no end in sight. Fresh rounds of tariffs announced every few months.
I don't think we should discount the possibility that this is part of Trump's deliberate strategy: all throughout his life, Trump has been able to avoid prison despite his involvement in plenty of shady business activities. Now I don't think he uses strategy the way a chess player does by thinking 20 moves ahead. Instead, Trump intuits things by throwing spaghetti at the wall and seeing what sticks. Trump's focus is his re-election, and I think he believes that impeachment will be beneficial for him — the crazy Democrats with their shady tactics are out there to get him, WITCH HUNT! His hardcore supporters probably love it when he sticks it to “shifty Schiff” and breaks norms. When he fights back against the biased MSM. He doesn't care about truth. He doesn't care about norms. He believes that he can get away with lining his pockets while in office (at least he has been able to get away with that all his life). And if you look at the structure of the White House, it resembles what the Trump Organization looked like before he became President: you have his family and a few trusted people who are believers.
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
My impression is Joe Biden arranged cushy job(s) for his son - Hunter reportedly has no experience with natural gas. It would not surprise me if he never attended a board meeting in Ukraine. Just cashed those checks. Funny how neither you nor I get offered these paying board seats to pad our résumés.
I don't think this scenario makes sense: Joe Biden is politically savvy enough to see that this will backfire. No, I think Hunter Biden was hired on the basis of his last name alone in the same way that e. g. Samsung will pay famous people to promote their products.
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andi*pandi  (op)
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Oct 7, 2019, 01:41 PM
 
Second whistleblower signs on.
Trump throws Rick Perry under the bus, once Rudy was done with it.
Court says trump has to turn over taxes.

Days until Trump resigns.... or he might just be stubborn and single-minded enough to stay til the end. He believes his own propaganda.
     
Thorzdad
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Oct 7, 2019, 02:07 PM
 
I'm just nervously waiting to see if Trump and Co. might quadruple-down on their "it's a coup" talking point and have Schiff arrested and charged with treason. I mean, it's not beyond-the-pale for someone as egotistical, unstable, and unencumbered by a moral compass like Trump to take such a reckless step. The question would be whether Barr is such a complete minion as to carry such an order out, or whether there's an adult left in the administration who could talk Trump away from that ledge. Well, that and whether that would be the trigger that gets the Republicans to finally act against Trump, or if it would still be crickets from the GOP.
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andi*pandi  (op)
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Oct 7, 2019, 02:28 PM
 
Mitt Romney has shown signs of spine emergence. Susan Collins is still at "mild rebuke" on the outrage scale.
     
reader50
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Oct 7, 2019, 08:14 PM
 
Originally Posted by andi*pandi View Post
Court says trump has to turn over taxes.
My theory is still some illegal income on his books. Trump has fought long and hard to keep those returns secret. He doesn't seem bothered by embarrassing things, so it must be something else. Pretty much leaves incriminating things.
     
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Oct 7, 2019, 09:57 PM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
My theory is still some illegal income on his books. Trump has fought long and hard to keep those returns secret. He doesn't seem bothered by embarrassing things, so it must be something else. Pretty much leaves incriminating things.
Even more likely than this being proven are violations of the emoluments clause of the Constitution, since the income could be perfectly legal if Trump were a private citizen. Money laundering and the like is notoriously hard to prove, and since you need to convince the Senate on political grounds, I don't think this is the most promising avenue.

I think from the point of view of public presentation, it'd be quite difficult to keep the impeachment inquiry and process on track — Trump just presents such a big target that you may get lost. IMHO the big appeal of the Ukraine scandal is its simplicity and the fact that we have official corroboration of the accusations from Trump's White House itself. The story is easy to understand and easy to present.
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Oct 7, 2019, 10:40 PM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
Even more likely than this being proven are violations of the emoluments clause of the Constitution, since the income could be perfectly legal if Trump were a private citizen.
I'm thinking of his tax returns through 2015. Before he got sworn in. Emoluments were not in play until January 2016. I didn't listen to his campaign speeches and promises, but unless he promised "future returns", he meant the ones before 2016.

But he's released nada. And fought hard against each attempt to pry them loose. If he feared embarrassment, he'd avoid twitter and covfefe. Along with marker pens and weather maps. And press conferences, etc.

So it's not embarrassment, or emoluments (pre-2016). Suggesting something illegal, and he doesn't want to release until the statute of limitations passes.
     
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Oct 8, 2019, 01:35 AM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
I'm thinking of his tax returns through 2015. Before he got sworn in. Emoluments were not in play until January 2016. I didn't listen to his campaign speeches and promises, but unless he promised "future returns", he meant the ones before 2016.
You are right, but I was thinking of some nuggets that are in the call “transcript” (I'd rather call it a summary): President Zelensky mentioned that he stayed in Trump's hotel in New York, for example. And the House could subpoena additional tax returns for the years after.
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
But he's released nada. And fought hard against each attempt to pry them loose. If he feared embarrassment, he'd avoid twitter and covfefe. Along with marker pens and weather maps. And press conferences, etc.

So it's not embarrassment, or emoluments (pre-2016). Suggesting something illegal, and he doesn't want to release until the statute of limitations passes.
I don't disagree at all about the substance here. Books have been published in the 1990s about Trump's connections to the mafia. He settled a large lawsuit alleging fraud in between the election and the inauguration. We know Trump's character.

I was narrowly focussed on the issue of impeachment: which brings forth the strongest case — and in time for the election? On the other hand, you raise important points that deserve investigation, including after Trump's presidency has ended.
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Laminar
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Oct 8, 2019, 12:30 PM
 
In what case would something illegal be reported on one's taxes, that wouldn't have already been acted on? Is the thought that he would have reported sources of income that the IRS wouldn't have cared about before, but might collapse under further scrutiny?

I just assume the tax returns would show that his net worth is nowhere near what he says it is.

Trump doesn't get "embarrassed" in the traditional sense, like someone would be if they were retweeting Nazis or saying stupid things or not conforming to basic etiquette in front of the entire world. But he's built an image on being the smartest, toughest, and richest, and I feel like he would fight tooth and nail to prevent anything from questioning those core values.
     
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Oct 8, 2019, 01:16 PM
 
It's a quirk of the US income tax system. You're required to report all income, and sign your tax return (under penalty of perjury) that you've reported everything correctly. But there's also the 5th Amendment - self-incrimination cannot be required.

Congress could resolve the conflict by exempting illegal income from taxes. That'd be generous to criminals. Instead, if you get away with the bank robbery, you have to pay taxes on that income. (if you get caught, you don't keep the money, so the problem goes away)

If you report the robbery (or embezzlement, or blackmail cash, etc) correctly and pay all taxes due - the IRS seals your return. It cannot be obtained from them (and if leaked, could not be used against you). If you cheat on your taxes though, then your return could be used to investigate you. So be damn sure to pay the government their "cut" of your bank robbery, and it's all good.

But if you release your return (reporting illegal income) then that's a confession - it can be used against you. Same if someone subpoenas it from your tax preparer - only the IRS's lips are sealed. For this reason, if you rob a bank, you should either 1) prepare your return yourself or 2) use a tax attorney to prepare it. Due to attorney-client privilege, subpoenaing a lawyer is a waste of time.

IANAL, so if you do rob a bank (and get away with it), please consult a real lawyer about the legal details.
     
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Oct 8, 2019, 01:43 PM
 
Things that could be in trump's taxes, that may have seemed legal (if unethical) at the time, pre-presidential run:

Not being as rich as he brags about;
Income from unsavory areas (mafia connections);
Income from conflict of interests (hotels in foreign countries etc, stocks in certain companies)
Loans from foreign countries;
Never having filed at all;
     
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Oct 8, 2019, 01:49 PM
 
Originally Posted by Laminar View Post
I just assume the tax returns would show that his net worth is nowhere near what he says it is.
This!

OAW
     
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Oct 8, 2019, 02:02 PM
 
Originally Posted by Laminar View Post
I just assume the tax returns would show that his net worth is nowhere near what he says it is.
That and/or there's possibly some highly sketchy (though not illegal) income sources? Or, his tax returns might show he made a bajillion dollars and paid far less in taxes than the woman who cleans the staff toilets at Mar-a-Lago?
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andi*pandi  (op)
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Oct 8, 2019, 02:32 PM
 
He was being audited, which is why they couldn't be released. Endlessly audited.

They don't exist.
     
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Oct 8, 2019, 05:53 PM
 
Trump’s legal team sent this letter to Pelosi, Engel, Schiff and Cummings.
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Oct 8, 2019, 07:36 PM
 
impeach me? Impeach YOU!
     
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Oct 8, 2019, 08:56 PM
 
Originally Posted by Laminar View Post
In what case would something illegal be reported on one's taxes, that wouldn't have already been acted on? Is the thought that he would have reported sources of income that the IRS wouldn't have cared about before, but might collapse under further scrutiny?
It is a very peculiar solution to organized crime that doesn't exist in most (any?) other developed countries. In most other countries I am aware of, the state needs to prove that certain income comes from illegal activities, so they would have to convict you for a crime like, say, drug trafficking or extortion until they can separately convict you of tax fraud. That means money from illegal activities tends to get hidden.

In the US, the two are not connected: if you do not report income from illegal activities, you can be convicted of tax fraud even if you are not convicted of the crime the proceeds came from. That creates pressure to report money, which in turn creates a paper trail that can be used in other investigations. AFAIK this law was created to convict Al Capone.
Originally Posted by Laminar View Post
But he's built an image on being the smartest, toughest, and richest, and I feel like he would fight tooth and nail to prevent anything from questioning those core values.
That's certainly one reason. But be that as it may, I am sure the tax returns will provide some leads for further inquiry anyway.
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Oct 8, 2019, 08:58 PM
 
Originally Posted by Thorzdad View Post
That and/or there's possibly some highly sketchy (though not illegal) income sources? Or, his tax returns might show he made a bajillion dollars and paid far less in taxes than the woman who cleans the staff toilets at Mar-a-Lago?
Money laundering is difficult to prove, because the streams of in- and outgoing money are designed to be complicated so as to obscure their true origin. If the trial is political (i. e. part of an impeachment procedure), I don't think the general population could necessarily follow, though.
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Oct 9, 2019, 07:01 PM
 
Originally Posted by Thorzdad View Post
Trump’s legal team sent this letter to Pelosi, Engel, Schiff and Cummings.
Houston, we have a problem.

Trump isn't claiming executive privilege to resist some subpoenas. He's denying Congressional subpoenas as a block. Unless he is granted assorted things the Constitution does not provide, which would essentially give him the power to stop investigations of himself. Separation of Powers be damned.

The last time this happened, Nixon refused a subpoena to turn over the Watergate tapes. It went to the Supreme Court, which sided with the Constitution, and ordered the tapes turned over (Nixon resigned before he could be convicted). Today's SC has two members placed there by Trump himself.

A Harvard law professor explains how we're now in Constitutional crisis mode. Beware, possible NYT paywall blackmail.
More to the point, Mr. Cipollone’s letter presents the president as the judge of whether a congressional inquiry into impeachment is constitutional. That obviously can’t be right. Not only would that violate the principle of separation of powers; it also would effectively put the president in ultimate control of the impeachment process.
Trump is hoping to keep his Senate allies, by abandoning our Kurd allies to be overrun by Turkey - "they didn't help us in Normandy". Perhaps a Freudian message to Senate allies - I don't know that any of them are old enough. To have helped in Normandy.
     
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Oct 9, 2019, 08:45 PM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
Houston, we have a problem.

Trump isn't claiming executive privilege to resist some subpoenas. He's denying Congressional subpoenas as a block. Unless he is granted assorted things the Constitution does not provide, which would essentially give him the power to stop investigations of himself. Separation of Powers be damned.
It is evident that Trump solely sees this through the lens of his re-election campaign. I don't think he cares about constitutionality or House procedures. Pelosi would be a fool if she gave in to his constant demands (as if Trump cares that the paperwork in the House is filed correctly).
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
The last time this happened, Nixon refused a subpoena to turn over the Watergate tapes. It went to the Supreme Court, which sided with the Constitution, and ordered the tapes turned over (Nixon resigned before he could be convicted). Today's SC has two members placed there by Trump himself.
If memory serves, the SCOTUS decision was unanimous. But I reckon one of Trump's goals here is to simply run out the clock.
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
Trump is hoping to keep his Senate allies, by abandoning our Kurd allies to be overrun by Turkey - "they didn't help us in Normandy". Perhaps a Freudian message to Senate allies - I don't know that any of them are old enough. To have helped in Normandy.
This looks like one of the few moves Trump knows to control the narrative — he tries to distract from something outrageous (everything involving the impeachment inquiry) by doing something else that is outrageous.

On the merits, I am in complete agreement: this is horrendous and will have long-lasting consequences — the Kurds have been steadfast allies of the US and NATO, and they are currently housing thousands of incarcerated ISIS fighters. The damage caused by the Trump presidency will take decades to repair.
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Oct 11, 2019, 02:41 PM
 
Looks like a couple of Rudy's henchmen got nabbed trying to leave the country on one-way tickets.
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Oct 11, 2019, 03:42 PM
 
Fox News (!) published a poll yesterday of registered voters.

Should President Trump be Impeached and Removed from Office?
51% Impeached and Removed
4% Impeached but not Removed
40% Not Impeached
error margin: +/- 3%
This suggests 55% favor impeachment in the House, sending it to the Senate.

Trump responded on Twitter: "Whoever their Pollster is, they suck". He added the news network is "much different than it used to be in the good old days".
     
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Oct 11, 2019, 09:12 PM
 
AG Barr has a private meeting with Rupert Murdoch at Murdoch’s home.
As hard as I try, I cannot think of any legitimate reason for this, other than to coordinate impeachment strategies. Unless it was to get Shep Smith booted from Fox, I suppose. But, even that is sketchy.
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Oct 12, 2019, 08:28 PM
 
It's been speculated that Barr's investigation produced evidence that Shep Smith was on the receiving end of leaks that warranted additional investigation.

Note: I haven't been here in many years. It's neat seeing some of the same personalities in the Political/War Lounge. I hope everyone is doing well.
     
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Oct 13, 2019, 08:35 AM
 
Originally Posted by Thorzdad View Post
AG Barr has a private meeting with Rupert Murdoch at Murdoch’s home.
As hard as I try, I cannot think of any legitimate reason for this, other than to coordinate impeachment strategies. Unless it was to get Shep Smith booted from Fox, I suppose. But, even that is sketchy.
Your tweet proved quite prescient.
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Oct 13, 2019, 04:18 PM
 
Todays best (and potentially confusing) Trumpism in response to a question as to whether Giuliani was still is lawyer.

"I don't know. I haven't spoken to him. I spoke to him yesterday"

o. kaaaaaay
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Oct 14, 2019, 04:56 AM
 
Originally Posted by spacefreak View Post
Note: I haven't been here in many years. It's neat seeing some of the same personalities in the Political/War Lounge. I hope everyone is doing well.
Holy shit! Good to see your name again, sir!
     
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Oct 17, 2019, 06:45 PM
 
Originally Posted by Doc HM View Post
"I don't know. I haven't spoken to him. I spoke to him yesterday"
It's a political correct way of saying #$&@ off.

-t
     
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Oct 24, 2019, 03:06 AM
 
Quite a few developments. Hearings have continued. It appears officials are ignoring Trump's illegal order to ignore Congressional subpoenas.

Bill Taylor's testimony lasted nearly 10 hours, and appears to have filled in a lot of gaps. With one exception: his testimony directly contradicts Gordon Sondland's testimony on several matters. Specifically how much Sondland went along with the Ukraine schemes. Sondland says he tried to discourage Guiliani's tactics, while Taylor says Sondland was good to go on them (simplified - transcripts have not been released). Congress is thinking of inviting Sondland back for more questions.

Business associates of Guiliani have been arrested, including two at the airport. With one-way tickets out of the country. Suspected of laundering foreign money donations for Trump's re-election campaign. They've pleaded not-guilty.

Some House Republicans (20-30?) rushed into the secure hearings room to stage a sit-in. The committees conducting the investigation have both Dem and Rep members, who were welcome all along. These guys were not on the relevant committees.

They also took their cell phones into this secure intelligence area, a major security breech. Reportedly they ordered pizza for the sit-in. Not sure how the delivery would work. Pizza guy/gal probably doesn't have clearances for that room. Sergeant-at-arms summoned 5 hours later, apparently after they cleared out. Swept the area and found it clear, so the Cooper hearing resumed.

Note: legislator shenanigans do happen, and can be much more dramatic in other countries. Fistfights used to happen frequently in the Russian legislature, and I believe the South Korean folks once sprayed each other with fire extinguishers. Honest fun in my opinion.

Trump hasn't had a lot to say, other than the usual. They're all liars, and never-Trumpers. Who shouldn't be employed in government, are scum, etc. Paraphrased - most of his comments have been on Twitter.

Sorry for the lack of links. There's too many, and it's past midnight here.
     
 
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