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PRK: discount nukes and missiles - inquire within (Page 3)
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Snow-i
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Aug 11, 2017, 08:15 PM
 
Originally Posted by Snow-i View Post
True.


Cold Warring him will only further drive him to develop his nuclear capabilities, sacrificing even more of his economy to that and not his people. . I hope thats exactly what we're not doing - getting into an arms race with a country we already outmatch 1000x over - just basically encouraging them to catch up.

What I hope we're doing is looking for a way to undermine Kim and his ambitions. One way we could do this? THAAD the shit out of his next missile test. Test our ability to knock that shit out of the sky. If we are able to do this, we can demonstrate his missile capability is futile.

At the very least, it embarrasses the hell out of Kim in front of the world. I almost feel like a third of the rhetoric is ego, the other two thirds designed to assert his grip on power. If we can make his games turn out badly for him, we can encourage him not to play at all - or even perhaps play a different (hopefully more diplomatic) game altogether.
Subego - wanted your take on this thought.

Others welcome to comment.
     
Snow-i
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Aug 11, 2017, 08:19 PM
 
Originally Posted by Laminar View Post
Transphobic. There are more than two genders.
wink
Speciesist.

There is more than one species serving in the military.



Is that a new line of shaving products for mermaids?
I thought it was the new George Clooney movie.
     
besson3c
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Aug 11, 2017, 08:21 PM
 
Originally Posted by Snow-i View Post
You can dish it but you can't take it?

You're in like 3 threads going absolutely ham on Chongo and Badkosh, implying they are stupid hicks and whatnot. You even brought it into this thread.

If you want to understand why your arguments are going no where in any of them, this thread is a great reference for you moving forward.

If you want to understand why you're not given a benefit of the doubt from your opposition - you haven't earned one.


I said I'm going to pack it in and I meant that, so to take this in a different direction and not stir the pot on Trump-related matters I would like to understand why you felt that the global warming thread is a good example to draw from? Hand to God and baby Jesus I really don't see global warming as a partisan issue. I know it often seems like it with the usual sorts on one side and the usual sorts on the other, but why is this? To me this is an issue of respecting scientific conclusion and the work that has gone into it or denying it, and I'm more than happy to call out the deniers no matter their politics.

As somebody interested in not being locked into partisan politics I would like to understand why you feel this has become such a shit show, and what we can do about that?
     
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Aug 11, 2017, 08:24 PM
 

     
The Final Dakar
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Aug 11, 2017, 08:24 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Wood that it twerr sew simple.
     
The Final Dakar
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Aug 11, 2017, 08:28 PM
 
Originally Posted by Snow-i View Post
Do they?

I think Trump is president because precisely the opposite. Words are wind Jon Snow.
Another point – words matter when you don't follow through on them. Which is what Trump did.
     
The Final Dakar
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Aug 11, 2017, 08:30 PM
 
Everybody gets military action!
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/trump-th...litary-option/
“This is our neighbor,” he elaborated, “We are all over the world and we have troops all over the world in places that are very, very far away. Venezuela is not very far away. And the people are suffering, and they’re dying. We have many options for Venezuela, including a possible military option if necessary.”
     
subego  (op)
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Aug 11, 2017, 09:01 PM
 
Originally Posted by Snow-i View Post
Subego - wanted your take on this thought.

Others welcome to comment.
This was another post I didn't make as clear as I could have.

What I'm saying is if it starts to look like we're gearing up for a hot war, my hope is that our real intent isn't a hot war.
     
el chupacabra
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Aug 11, 2017, 11:54 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
We won't nuke. Word on the street around the Pentagon is that they have 100s FAE devices that make MOAB look like a party favor, and the detonation in Afghanistan was a combat test (they've been live testing the bigger ones over the last year). Wouldn't surprise me if they carpet bomb the PRK with those when things get worse, turning all of N Korea's military installations and nuke bases into ash. If that happens, and if it works as intended, perceptions will change readically from where they are now.
Based on history I tend to believe our military tech is far more advanced than they let on. Which makes sense... In nature the most powerful always pretend to be as weak as possible where as the weak try to chest pound how strong & powerful they are. So I have faith our antimissile defense could shoot down all their nukes. Especially if they were aiming at Guam.

However I dont think the goal of the US is to obliterate the north. SK is our close ally, and SK has family and friends trapped on the other side. While Trump may be serious about using nukes, in the end I don't see our government letting him, or even too many MOABs for that matter. Then there's the fact there's over a million or 2 troops at the DMZ, half of them SK. Immediately on the other side of the DMZ are missiles aimed at the south. It's not possible to take these out with out bombing the south too. On top of that the north will radar see our bombs coming at them before they hit giving them plenty of time to unload on SK. They are basically holding the south hostage.

There's thought out there that NK will slowly collapse all on its own due to South Koreans smuggling information and phones past the border, and that we should all just wait for that... I think the SLOW collapse is a bad idea because it would allow China to shape an organized collapse right into its hands. The NK situation needs to be solve soon.

My hopeful prediction is the government is playing chess by allowing Trump to be Trump, hoping he will saber rattle the people of the North into some kind insurgency speeding up the collapse. Preferably a collapse into the US's hands so NK can be merged into the south or at least into an ally of the south. The North Koreans are already a united, disciplined people, it wont be like Iraq, it would be like Japan if not easier.
c
     
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Aug 12, 2017, 01:59 AM
 
Originally Posted by el chupacabra View Post
There's thought out there that NK will slowly collapse all on its own due to South Koreans smuggling information and phones past the border, and that we should all just wait for that... I think the SLOW collapse is a bad idea because it would allow China to shape an organized collapse right into its hands.
I think it'd be vastly preferable if North Korea were absorbed into the Chinese state: it would stabilize the region, improve the economic situation (China trades with everyone while North Korea tries (and fails) to be self sufficient). From all the options, a slow collapse seems like the least worst to me.
Originally Posted by el chupacabra View Post
My hopeful prediction is the government is playing chess by allowing Trump to be Trump, hoping he will saber rattle the people of the North into some kind insurgency speeding up the collapse.
I don't think they are playing chess, if anything Mattis and Tillerson are frantically trying to stop the bleeding caused by Trump's utterances. (As usual, Trump apparently didn't consult with anyone and just improvised.) It is really dangerous to have double speak from the administration where Trump says one thing and “the adults” another. How should North Korea know where the red line is? Should they take Trump at his word or rely on what Tillerson says? Perhaps Trump even believes that this uncertainty gives him an edge in the negotiations, but these are negotiations between nuclear powers where miscommunication can have catastrophic consequences. Even if you are in favor of a hard line, at the very least you should clearly communicate that hard line.

I can tell you that from a Korean perspective, the current situation is much less tense then what had happened 7 years ago when North Korea shelled a South Korean island and killed many civilians.
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Aug 12, 2017, 02:11 AM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post

That's pretty good. The Trump image gives me 3 Stooges flashbacks, very Shemp-like.
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Snow-i
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Aug 12, 2017, 08:43 PM
 
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
Another point – words matter when you don't follow through on them. Which is what Trump did.
Which is not unprecedented as a matter of presidents speaking directly to foreign nations' leaders, especially when drawing strong imagery to illustrate the point.

I slammed it then, and I'll slam it now. But it's Trump - expecting him to handle situations like this gracefully is quite a bit to ask. I'd still rather have an ineffective Trump than an effective Hillary.
     
Snow-i
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Aug 12, 2017, 08:46 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
This was another post I didn't make as clear as I could have.

What I'm saying is if it starts to look like we're gearing up for a hot war, my hope is that our real intent isn't a hot war.
I don't disagree - to be more speaking I'm seeking your comment on the idea of THAADING the shit out a missile test as a means undermining Kim and demonstrating to him and the world that the missile capacity is futile.

I'm not sure if we have that capability as it stands today, but if we can do it from a land base today I can't imagine it would be terribly long before we could fit that system to a ship, or even an aircraft.
     
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Aug 12, 2017, 08:58 PM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
As usual, Trump apparently didn't consult with anyone and just improvised.
Improvisation ≠ lack of consultation.

The claim is they knew the subject would come up at the conference, and discussed the general response.


Sanders: NK's going to come up. What's our plan?
Pufnstuf: Make Kim shit his pants.
Mr. President: Hold my covfefe.
     
subego  (op)
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Aug 12, 2017, 09:03 PM
 
Originally Posted by Snow-i View Post
I don't disagree - to be more speaking I'm seeking your comment on the idea of THAADING the shit out a missile test as a means undermining Kim and demonstrating to him and the world that the missile capacity is futile.

I'm not sure if we have that capability as it stands today, but if we can do it from a land base today I can't imagine it would be terribly long before we could fit that system to a ship, or even an aircraft.
It's a risky proposition only in that it has to work.

We try this and miss...
     
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Aug 13, 2017, 08:32 AM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post

Very Funny!
     
The Final Dakar
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Aug 13, 2017, 07:37 PM
 
Originally Posted by Snow-i View Post
Which is not unprecedented as a matter of presidents speaking directly to foreign nations' leaders, especially when drawing strong imagery to illustrate the point.
"Speaking directly to foreign nations' leaders"
He was making threats for the cameras.

"Drawing strong imagery to illustrate the point"
He implied we'd nuke them.

With spin like that you should work in the WH press office.


Originally Posted by Snow-i View Post
I slammed it then, and I'll slam it now. But it's Trump - expecting him to handle situations like this gracefully is quite a bit to ask.
No, its not. He's the god damn president, not an internet troll.

Originally Posted by Snow-i View Post
'd still rather have an ineffective Trump than an effective Hillary.
I'm not sure I follow. Effective how?
     
The Final Dakar
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Aug 13, 2017, 07:38 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Improvisation ≠ lack of consultation.

The claim is they knew the subject would come up at the conference, and discussed the general response.
Off-script is probably the more accurate term.
     
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Aug 13, 2017, 08:31 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Improvisation ≠ lack of consultation.

The claim is they knew the subject would come up at the conference, and discussed the general response.
I don't see the relevance for this distinction here: this isn't something you want to wing, but something you want to think about very deliberately before doing anything. Even under the best circumstances, it is difficult to suss out what the other side is saying, and what it actually wants to say and is prepared to do. And from what I have heard, there was a clear lack of consultation — discussing the “general response” doesn't really suffice here. (From what I have read is that Trump's inner circle has resigned to the fact that he will say whatever he wants and what pops into his mind.)
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Aug 13, 2017, 09:35 PM
 
Originally Posted by Snow-i View Post
I don't disagree - to be more speaking I'm seeking your comment on the idea of THAADING the shit out a missile test as a means undermining Kim and demonstrating to him and the world that the missile capacity is futile.
That seems like a big risk, missile defense shields do not have a 100 % hit rate, and we don't know what North Korea's technological capabilities are. So far, we have always tended to underestimate them. Do you really want to play Russian roulette?
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Snow-i
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Aug 14, 2017, 02:00 AM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
It's a risky proposition only in that it has to work.

We try this and miss...
Would they even be able to tell? The Chinese, perhaps. But could we gain their support somehow? It's a non escalating way to leverage our military capacity. Provided it's ready.


Missing wouldn't be the end of the world. It would show them we are committed to mitigating their missile capacity, and their we're not afraid to fire a couple of rockets at their rockets over the ocean. In case of a miss, do a bunch more very public tests to demonstrate it was a fluke.
     
Snow-i
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Aug 14, 2017, 02:01 AM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
That seems like a big risk, missile defense shields do not have a 100 % hit rate, and we don't know what North Korea's technological capabilities are. So far, we have always tended to underestimate them. Do you really want to play Russian roulette?
Would doing so in international waters result in armed conflict? I'm not so sure.
     
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Aug 14, 2017, 02:57 AM
 
Originally Posted by Snow-i View Post
Would doing so in international waters result in armed conflict? I'm not so sure.
Why take the risk and to what end? I don't see any purpose and any upsides to that. The North Koreans know about the existence of the US's missile defense systems, and I am sure they have some idea of what the detailed technical capabilities are. The North Koreans threatened the US with a shot across their bow, and they have been very specific (they aim for the waters 30-40 km from Guam's shore). North Korea wants to display its capabilities, most importantly that they can hit a 10 km x 10 km target area. And the North Koreans also know that the US has not mobilized anyone yet to fight the next Korean war. That makes all of Trump's rhetoric appear hollow.

We know what happens if North Korea gets invaded by the US and its allies, there is only one end to the story. The Koreans are much calmer than the Americans (even though the Koreans would bear the brunt of the consequences), and I don't see any purpose in Trump's antagonistic, improvised comments and tweets but to inflate his own ego and re-assure himself of the strength of the US military. That was never in question, though.

This is not a conflict that needs more escalation, it needs more de-escalation. Americans and North Koreans should immediately enter direct talks even if just to avoid misinterpretations. Trump should keep his mouth shut and let the diplomats work out a deal.
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besson3c
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Aug 14, 2017, 09:23 AM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
Why take the risk and to what end? I don't see any purpose and any upsides to that. The North Koreans know about the existence of the US's missile defense systems, and I am sure they have some idea of what the detailed technical capabilities are. The North Koreans threatened the US with a shot across their bow, and they have been very specific (they aim for the waters 30-40 km from Guam's shore). North Korea wants to display its capabilities, most importantly that they can hit a 10 km x 10 km target area. And the North Koreans also know that the US has not mobilized anyone yet to fight the next Korean war. That makes all of Trump's rhetoric appear hollow.

We know what happens if North Korea gets invaded by the US and its allies, there is only one end to the story. The Koreans are much calmer than the Americans (even though the Koreans would bear the brunt of the consequences), and I don't see any purpose in Trump's antagonistic, improvised comments and tweets but to inflate his own ego and re-assure himself of the strength of the US military. That was never in question, though.

This is not a conflict that needs more escalation, it needs more de-escalation. Americans and North Koreans should immediately enter direct talks even if just to avoid misinterpretations. Trump should keep his mouth shut and let the diplomats work out a deal.

I know this is a topic changer, but what do you think about sending Jared Kushner to the middle east to broker peace talks?
     
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Aug 14, 2017, 05:03 PM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
Why take the risk and to what end? I don't see any purpose and any upsides to that. The North Koreans know about the existence of the US's missile defense systems, and I am sure they have some idea of what the detailed technical capabilities are.
The same could be said for their missiles. When Kim launches a test, he's really sending a message to the world via an action. My suggestion is to disincentivize that action by demonstrating it's futility.

The North Koreans threatened the US with a shot across their bow, and they have been very specific (they aim for the waters 30-40 km from Guam's shore). North Korea wants to display its capabilities, most importantly that they can hit a 10 km x 10 km target area. And the North Koreans also know that the US has not mobilized anyone yet to fight the next Korean war. That makes all of Trump's rhetoric appear hollow.
Precisely - they want to display their capabilities. We can A) demonstrate ours, and B) prevent them from demonstrating those capabilities on the world stage.

We know what happens if North Korea gets invaded by the US and its allies, there is only one end to the story. The Koreans are much calmer than the Americans (even though the Koreans would bear the brunt of the consequences), and I don't see any purpose in Trump's antagonistic, improvised comments and tweets but to inflate his own ego and re-assure himself of the strength of the US military. That was never in question, though.
I mean, its the same rhetorics the last two presidents have used against NK even if Trumps was more colorful. I could provide citations, but I trust you'll do a quick internet search.

This is not a conflict that needs more escalation, it needs more de-escalation. Americans and North Koreans should immediately enter direct talks even if just to avoid misinterpretations. Trump should keep his mouth shut and let the diplomats work out a deal.
I think this could de-escalate the situation.

What's NK's position right now? They're going to launch more missiles and do more nuclear tests while building out their capacities. Are you arguing the Status Quo for the last 50 years is working?
     
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Aug 14, 2017, 07:49 PM
 
Originally Posted by Snow-i View Post
The same could be said for their missiles. When Kim launches a test, he's really sending a message to the world via an action. My suggestion is to disincentivize that action by demonstrating it's futility.
Actually we don't know North Korea's capabilities, at this point we don't even know whether they can reliably hit a 10 km x 10 km target. It'd be embarrassing (and potentially very dangerous) if it couldn't.
Originally Posted by Snow-i View Post
Precisely - they want to display their capabilities. We can A) demonstrate ours, and B) prevent them from demonstrating those capabilities on the world stage.
We don't need to display ours, and us shooting down a North Korean missile does nothing to say that North Korea isn't capable of launching missiles that far. Us shooting down the North Korean missile does not say that the North Koreans are not capable of sending a missile that far.
Originally Posted by Snow-i View Post
I mean, its the same rhetorics the last two presidents have used against NK even if Trumps was more colorful. I could provide citations, but I trust you'll do a quick internet search.
No, no, no, this is quite different: Obama and Bush did not improvise their statements. And I don't remember either of them using language like Trump's “locked and loaded” or “fire and fury”. That's the language of a junior high schooler during puberty.
Originally Posted by Snow-i View Post
What's NK's position right now? They're going to launch more missiles and do more nuclear tests while building out their capacities. Are you arguing the Status Quo for the last 50 years is working?
No, I'm saying that diplomacy is the least worst solution and further escalation by unnecessary comments uttered by a blow hard. Incessant provocations just emphasize how powerless we are at stopping North Korea, and that would include a tech demonstration of shooting down their missile. It shows off our weakness rather than our strength. You can see that in the President's actions: all these tough words, but from all the reports he hasn't mobilized anyone yet. The North Koreans, Chinese and Russians sure will take note of that and factor it in the next time they are at odds with the US. They see a President who is not taken seriously by his own cabinet members (who were trying to smoothen Trump's remarks), they see someone with no strategic foresight in domestic and international dealings. The ally that matters most here, South Korea, is confused by Trump's actions — very much the opposite of what you want. Plus, if allies are confused, what do you expect of the North Koreans? (I was in South Korea for a conference earlier this month, and there things were business as usual. They seemed more concerned about the US than North Korea.)

And I am saying that we have to accept North Korea as a nuclear power — just like we accepted Pakistan having nuclear weapons. It's not as if anyone is happy about it, including the Chinese, but it has become a fact of life now.
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Aug 30, 2017, 03:27 PM
 
My tentative "positive outlook" is players 5 through 40 have entered the game.
     
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Sep 3, 2017, 11:56 AM
 
More stupidity. NK has apparently set off an underground hydrogen bomb test. And they did it closer to the China border than to the DMZ. Earthquake-like symptoms on the China side of the border. Also, they did it while the Chinese chairman was hosting the BRICS conference.

It seems to me Kim has given China the finger this time, more so than the US. That could be a fatal mistake.
( Last edited by reader50; Sep 3, 2017 at 12:58 PM. )
     
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Sep 3, 2017, 07:18 PM
 
btw, the Punggye-ri nuclear test site is 54 miles / 87 kilometers from the nearest Chinese city of Changbai. If you don't think China will react, consider what would happen if Mexico began testing atomic bombs 60 miles from Yuma, AZ. With the shock waves rattling dishes.

Current estimate of the yield is 100 kiloton. For reference, the Hiroshima / Nagasaki bombs were in the 15-20 kiloton range.
     
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Sep 3, 2017, 07:20 PM
 
Yes, I think there are better chances than ever for a diplomatic solution now, North Korea has no one to hide behind.
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subego  (op)
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Sep 3, 2017, 07:32 PM
 
Russia a bit.
     
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Sep 3, 2017, 09:28 PM
 
Russia did not veto the latest round of sanctions, and they do much less trade with North Korea than China.
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Sep 12, 2017, 11:16 PM
 
A fresh round of sanctions has been approved. NK textile exports are banned, 80% had been going to China. Oil imports capped - and not at current levels. They've been decreased a bit.

China did not abstain from the vote, they ratified. Kim should have listened when China counseled diplomacy instead of more tests.

Kim is foaming at the mouth, with more threats to punish the USA. Not too bright. Now if only he'd go a little crazier and threaten China.
     
subego  (op)
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Sep 17, 2017, 10:16 PM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
Russia did not veto the latest round of sanctions, and they do much less trade with North Korea than China.
But they like to screw with us.
     
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Sep 17, 2017, 10:16 PM
 


Best comment: looks like a Pink Floyd album cover.
     
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Sep 18, 2017, 04:08 AM
 
Li'l Kim did threaten China, he did his recent underground nuclear testing closer to China than to S Korea, as a not-so-subtle slight, and China got the message. That's why they're quickly ratifying these new sanctions. He keeps it up and China will just march troops into Pyongyang and remove his fat head for him and annex the place (not the worst outcome, to be sure).
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Sep 18, 2017, 03:52 PM
 
Time for Japan to send in the ninjas.
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