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You are here: MacNN Forums > Community > MacNN Lounge > Political/War Lounge > Boris Johnson vs The Queen and Parliament

Boris Johnson vs The Queen and Parliament (Page 2)
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reader50
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Sep 12, 2019, 11:48 AM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
... This time, the referendum is legally binding and asks voters to rank (1) Remain, (2) Brexit with May's deal or (3) Brexit without a deal. The EU grants another extension until after this referendum is held.
Originally Posted by Doc HM View Post
Oreo: your referenda would never fly here as it offers leavers two choices and clear victory for remain as every remain voter will simply vote as one bloc while the leave vote will be spilt.
Doc, I believe Oreo is referring to Ranked Choice Voting, where one can vote for preferred choices without a split-vote penalty on larger issues.

Under a ranked-choice vote, a choice wins if it gets over 50% of the vote. If no choice gets a majority, the choice that got the least votes is discarded. Those who voted for it have their votes added to their 2nd choice. Possible example (assuming 52% leave, 48% remain):

Round one:
48% Remain
32% Leave (May deal)
20% Leave (No deal)

No winner, so (Leave - no deal) is discarded. Assuming all No Deal voters chose (Leave - May deal) as their 2nd choice:

Round two:
52% Leave (May deal)
48% Remain

I like Ranked-choice Voting a lot. It lets people vote their hopes above their fears. You can vote for your personal best choice, and only after vote for the lesser scumbag with the better chance of winning.
     
OreoCookie
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Sep 12, 2019, 10:36 PM
 
Originally Posted by Doc HM View Post
Oreo: your referenda would never fly here as it offers leavers two choices and clear victory for remain as every remain voter will simply vote as one bloc while the leave vote will be spilt.
As reader50 pointed out, I think this can be avoided with ranked choice voting. Here, voters are asked to rank the three choices. A typical hard Brexiteer would probably choose

(1) No deal Brexit
(2) May's deal Brexit
(3) Remain

However, there may be a few voters who will have options (2) and (3) reversed:

(1) No deal Brexit
(2) Remain
(3) May's deal Brexit

Now the question is how large that group is? But if Remain is in the range 48~50 %, then it'd just need a few percent of the such unicorn voters. On the other hand, I understand that such voters are rare and just like the original referendum, I think this one will be too close to call.

Regarding whether or not to put May's deal to the vote: right now, I see no alternative. There is no UK government that would be able to negotiate something differently. So I don't think it'd be democratic to put another, mythical deal to the vote. Otherwise you wouldn't get out of this straightjacket as the current and even next government won't likely be able to negotiate something substantially different.

However, we could also think of another question in the referendum, an answer to “What relation would you like the UK to have with the EU in the future?” and give the options (1) Remain a member, (2) a No Deal Brexit or (3) the “Norway option”, for example. To be honest, this is the pertinent question to answer. (I'm quite sure the EU would be game for option (3), although that would have to be clarified, obviously.)
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Waragainstsleep
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Sep 14, 2019, 08:36 PM
 
I'm not sure what a referendum vote will look like this time exactly but I heard some positive thoughts on the current status of things.

With the DUP diminished, a changed deal is possible for the first time but while Johnson has no majority, the 'rebel alliance' will take the legislation for that deal (which must be voted on by parliament) and add language to insist the public get to vote on it, along with remain and possibly no deal as well. In other words, another referendum. The spanner in the works is if Johnson elects to break the law and not request an extension if he can't get a deal approved. Theres also the issue of what the UK Supreme Court will say about his dodgy Prorogue this Tuesday or Wednesday. Traditionally they prefer to stay out of parliamentary business and let the MPs sort it out themselves, but since the MPs have been taken out of play with this one, such a line makes zero logical sense so there is a chance they will do something.

So without factoring the wildcards, if Johnson can finish a deal, there will be another referendum, if he can't then there will likely be a general election. If there's an election, things get interesting. A Tory or Brexit Party majority would see no deal Brexit. A Labour or SNP majority would see a second referendum, a Liberal Democrat majority would see them just pull the plug on Brexit altogether. None of these seem likely to me, so its back to hoping that Labour get more voted than the tories, or that the tories stick to their word about not getting in bed with Farage (won't bet the house on that). Any other coalition including the SNP or Lib Dems to make up the numbers, is likely to see a referendum being part of the arrangement.
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
OreoCookie
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Sep 15, 2019, 08:41 AM
 
Johnson is banking on running out the clock and preferring to be punished (if that is at all an option) afterwards — he’ll have become a hero to a sizable, very vocal minority. I agree with you that the only way is another referendum — any solution needs political legitimacy from the electorate.

In the long term the big problem is that no matter what happens, a significant share of the population will feel cheated … and at least some for very good reason. The argument that some form of Brexit has gotten the majority, slim, but a majority, is correct, so reversing that would leave ~50 % of the population feeling they have been betrayed by the political class. Remainers can correctly point to the Leave campaign breaking campaign finance laws and murky connections to Russian oligarchs. Soft Brexiteers and pro Remain Tories feel without an electoral home. And if some form of agreement is reached, Hard Brexiteers will feel betrayed. (Well, these people will feel betrayed one way or another, it seems.) I don’t envy you guys.
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Waragainstsleep
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Sep 16, 2019, 09:36 AM
 
Most leavers will regret leaving if they get it. They won't wait for the supposed benefits to kick in before they lose patience, many of them won't even live that long anyway, even without our health service getting shafted. Thats assuming any benefits ever happen that aren't entirely absorbed by the elite behind it all. Leavers are like angry toddlers throwing tantrums because they can't eat 7 whole chocolate cakes. They don't believe it will make them sick, but it will so the sensible adults have to do the right thing and then put up with being yelled at and hated until they are done screaming themselves out.
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
 
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