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US Primary Season 2016: Come for the numbers, stay for the punditry (Page 9)
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subego
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Apr 11, 2016, 10:22 AM
 
In theory, he just needs to **** up one battleground state to flip the whole election.
     
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Apr 11, 2016, 11:51 AM
 
True, but he could endorse Hillary.

Seriously though, if they do try to nominate someone not Trump or Cruz, they will have effectively killed the primary process and quite possibly the Republican party. I also don't think Ryan wants it, so they'd have to dig up Mitt or someone.

There is also the definite risk that those Trump voters decide to stay at home on election day, hurting the rest of the ticket even in states that the GOP wins.
The new Mac Pro has up to 30 MB of cache inside the processor itself. That's more than the HD in my first Mac. Somehow I'm still running out of space.
     
subego
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Apr 11, 2016, 11:58 AM
 
The GOP is smoking something if they think they can simply eject Trump without consequences.
     
Cap'n Tightpants
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Apr 11, 2016, 12:31 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
In theory, he just needs to **** up one battleground state to flip the whole election.
On my map he'd need to flip 4 of them for her to beat Ryan.
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Cap'n Tightpants
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Apr 11, 2016, 12:36 PM
 
Originally Posted by P View Post
True, but he could endorse Hillary.

Seriously though, if they do try to nominate someone not Trump or Cruz, they will have effectively killed the primary process and quite possibly the Republican party.
There have been numerous brokered conventions, 6 of which didn't select the person with the most delegates, 4 selected someone who hadn't even been previously running, all without destroying the associated parties.

Originally Posted by subego View Post
The GOP is smoking something if they think they can simply eject Trump without consequences.
There would be, but not nearly as bad as the alternative (Trump as the GOP nom).
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subego
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Apr 11, 2016, 12:36 PM
 
I'm going to be highly skeptical of Ryan's numbers at this juncture.

That said, Trump could flip four states just by still being ambulatory. It's almost no question if he actually tries.
     
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Apr 11, 2016, 12:38 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
I'm going to be highly skeptical of Ryan's numbers at this juncture.

That said, Trump could flip four states just by still being ambulatory. It's almost no question if he actually tries.
I said 4 battlegrounds, and that's unlikely.
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subego
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Apr 11, 2016, 12:57 PM
 
Four battlegrounds in a very strange election year.

I think the key factor is 80%+ of the Bernie supporters will #ImWithHillary when the time comes.

The same thing which Jerbs is hammering on occurred to me as well. The truism has flipped. This season, it's the Republicans who fell in love, and the Democrats will fall in line.
     
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Apr 11, 2016, 01:44 PM
 
Comically, it's the Dems that are the most incensed over Trump not being nominated, Twitter has exploded into chaos with Left-wing bloggers having a tantrum.
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subego
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Apr 11, 2016, 01:59 PM
 
Nothing would make Democrats fall in line faster than Trump as an opponent...

And I can't exactly blame them for the sentiment.

I'm personally thankful I'm not in a battleground state.
     
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Apr 11, 2016, 02:11 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
On my map he'd need to flip 4 of them for her to beat Ryan.
I'd love to see that map. I can see them doing, say, the 2004 map + PA, WI and something smaller like NH, but that is still not 4 states as the smaller states aren't necessary for 270.
The new Mac Pro has up to 30 MB of cache inside the processor itself. That's more than the HD in my first Mac. Somehow I'm still running out of space.
     
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Apr 11, 2016, 02:13 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
There have been numerous brokered conventions, 6 of which didn't select the person with the most delegates, 4 selected someone who hadn't even been previously running, all without destroying the associated parties.
Since the development of the modern primary system?
The new Mac Pro has up to 30 MB of cache inside the processor itself. That's more than the HD in my first Mac. Somehow I'm still running out of space.
     
The Final Dakar  (op)
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Apr 11, 2016, 02:36 PM
 
Originally Posted by P View Post
Ryan can win OH and PA
PA is not happening. It's GOP fool's gold. If PA flips, there's going to be a lot of other states flipping with it.
     
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Apr 11, 2016, 03:27 PM
 
We won't know about PA until April 26th, then we'll have a good idea what the PA electorate thinks of her. The latest poll is Clinton +11 over Bernie but it was +27.5% just 2 weeks ago, and Sanders has spanked her just about everywhere they've polled within 10% of each other.
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Apr 11, 2016, 03:30 PM
 
Originally Posted by P View Post
Since the development of the modern primary system?
Post-Civil War era
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The Final Dakar  (op)
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Apr 11, 2016, 07:29 PM
 
Originally Posted by P View Post
I also don't think Ryan wants it,
As a former VP candidate, I think he wants it a hell of a lot more than he did the speakership.

Originally Posted by subego View Post
The GOP is smoking something if they think they can simply eject Trump without consequences.
This might be the only scenario where Trump and Cruz cooperate: Where the GOP tries to screw both (That would be the most pants-wetting amazing scenario – Trump and Cruz form anti-establishment Voltron to thwart a hijacking of convention). But I don't think most of the politicians endorsing Cruz are clever enough to be doing so to get a contested convention to stab him in the back. They merely see him as the lesser of two evils.
     
The Final Dakar  (op)
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Apr 12, 2016, 11:11 AM
 
Sam Wang hasTrump pegged at 66% to achieve a median 1237 votes. (If I read his tweet correctly)
     
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Apr 12, 2016, 01:15 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
Post-Civil War era
Then you're including almost 50 years when there weren't ANY primaries in the major parties (Wikipedia claims the first was Oregon in 1910), and 60 more with only a small minority holding them (usually 12, although the number went up and down a bit). It was only after the 1968 election that they became common. Since then, how many brokered conventions? How many that picked an outsider (that didn't try their luck in a primary)?
The new Mac Pro has up to 30 MB of cache inside the processor itself. That's more than the HD in my first Mac. Somehow I'm still running out of space.
     
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Apr 12, 2016, 04:06 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
Well, it's gone beyond being just a rumor. If the GOP primary is brokered, which is the most likely scenario now, Paul Ryan would be the top pick by the RNC, with Rubio as the most likely choice for running mate. Holy smokes, that's a shift. Who doesn't think he'd crush Hillary like an egg, given her escalating unfavorability rating?
Well, so much for that dream.
     
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Apr 12, 2016, 04:21 PM
 
I suspect Paul Ryan is way to savvy a politician to get caught up in the GOP train wreck that is fast approaching.

OAW
     
The Final Dakar  (op)
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Apr 12, 2016, 04:33 PM
 
I don't think someone deserves the appellation of savvy just for being smart enough to side step being the focal point and symbol of establishment disenfranchisement.
     
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Apr 12, 2016, 04:42 PM
 
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
I don't think someone deserves the appellation of savvy just for being smart enough to side step being the focal point and symbol of establishment disenfranchisement.
Perhaps "good sense" is more appropriate?

OAW
     
The Final Dakar  (op)
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Apr 12, 2016, 04:51 PM
 
Nah, I've seen his tax plan
     
The Final Dakar  (op)
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Apr 15, 2016, 12:11 PM
 
     
subego
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Apr 15, 2016, 01:27 PM
 
I had to think this through...

They're asking poll respondents "can X candidate beat Clinton, yes or no?"

Do I have that right?
     
The Final Dakar  (op)
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Apr 15, 2016, 02:41 PM
 
I'm not sure. The results feel crazy enough to write off until we see a corroborating one, but damn it caught my eye.
     
subego
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Apr 15, 2016, 03:56 PM
 
Wait... I confused myself again. It's more straightforward than I thought.

They're asking "who has the best chance of beating Hillary: X, Y, or Z?"
     
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Apr 15, 2016, 06:53 PM
 
I wonder how the thinking goes behind those responses. Love him or hate him, Kasich must be considered more electable than the other two.

OTOH, the GOP just passed a "Leave Comcast alone!" bill basically telling the FCC to stop regulating and let cable providers screw their customers in peace, so contact with reality is pretty clearly not their strong suit right now. I don't think I've ever met a single American, regardless of political leaning, who liked Comcast.
The new Mac Pro has up to 30 MB of cache inside the processor itself. That's more than the HD in my first Mac. Somehow I'm still running out of space.
     
subego
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Apr 15, 2016, 07:23 PM
 
I'm actually happy with Business class, but consumer can die in a fire.
     
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Apr 15, 2016, 09:40 PM
 
Pretty much the only thing I've completely supported Obama on, his stance on Net Neutrality and antitrust within broadband providers.
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subego
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Apr 15, 2016, 09:54 PM
 
Thanks, Obama!

No... for real.
     
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Apr 20, 2016, 04:18 AM
 
So Trump is picking up most of what he's lost recently in tonight's New York primary while Cruz strikes out completely. That struggle goes on, but Clinton's victory is almost assured now.
The new Mac Pro has up to 30 MB of cache inside the processor itself. That's more than the HD in my first Mac. Somehow I'm still running out of space.
     
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Apr 20, 2016, 09:11 AM
 
It may not mean much CG in the end it seemed my Cruz get zero delegates out of nearly one hundred warms my heart.
     
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Apr 20, 2016, 12:22 PM
 
Cruz isn't nearly as dangerous as Trump. That goofy SOB would get us into a nuclear war within a year of being in office.
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Apr 20, 2016, 12:26 PM
 
*shrug* Trump is bluster. The man rattles his saber all the time.
     
Cap'n Tightpants
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Apr 20, 2016, 03:04 PM
 
I truly believe S Korea and Japan would be irradiated within 18 months.
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subego
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Apr 20, 2016, 05:53 PM
 
What's the setup here? Who bombs who?
     
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Apr 20, 2016, 05:54 PM
 
I think he's thinking Trump antagonizes Kim Jong Un. An unstoppable force of crazy hits an immovable object of insanity.
     
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Apr 21, 2016, 01:14 AM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
What's the setup here? Who bombs who?
If you have to ask...
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Apr 21, 2016, 02:37 PM
 
So Trump vs Clinton come November?
     
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Apr 21, 2016, 02:47 PM
 
No "vs" to it, Clinton's coronation will be in January (barring an unlikely incarceration). Warn all the White House staff, Bubba the First Hubby will be on the prowl.
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The Final Dakar  (op)
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Apr 21, 2016, 03:02 PM
 
I'd still keep my eye out for Cruz shenanigans. Trumps delegate game has been sloppy and he may not get that magic number before the convention.
     
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Apr 21, 2016, 03:19 PM
 
That's simple. If he has them, he'll get the nom. If he's one short, he won't.
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The Final Dakar  (op)
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Apr 21, 2016, 03:31 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
That's simple. If he has them, he'll get the nom. If he's one short, he won't.
That's a harder argument to make than knocking him off he's down 100+. There will be a lot of angry republican voters.
     
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Apr 21, 2016, 04:12 PM
 
Repubs aren't winning anyway (unless they draw an ace at the convention and Hillary goes to jail), so it's rather pointless.
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The Final Dakar  (op)
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Apr 21, 2016, 04:32 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
Repubs aren't winning anyway (unless they draw an ace at the convention and Hillary goes to jail), so it's rather pointless.
Alienating a segment of your shrinking demographic is pointless?
     
subego
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Apr 21, 2016, 04:50 PM
 
They'll regroup quite nicely on the "hate Hillary" wagon trail.
     
Cap'n Tightpants
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Apr 21, 2016, 05:10 PM
 
I can't imagine the RNC gives a damn what the Trump faithful think anymore.
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Apr 21, 2016, 05:37 PM
 
So i recently watched this episode of "The Rubin Report" (Dave Rubin being a self described "liberal"/lefty, but has called out the "regressive left" and "anti-liberal" elements on the "left".... which won my respect).

This was an interview with a Trump supporter (He also did an interview with Milo Yiannopoulos on Trump).

There were some interesting points brought up.... if anyone wants to check it out...

     
The Final Dakar  (op)
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Apr 21, 2016, 11:05 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
They'll regroup quite nicely on the "hate Hillary" wagon trail.
You'd think, but some of these are the same people who primaried safe GOP positions.

Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
I can't imagine the RNC gives a damn what the Trump faithful think anymore.
If that were true, they would be openly moving against him.
     
 
 
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