[The Godfather]

The reason? Swarms of bad credit.
With the hundreds of millions of US citizens either foreclosing, shortselling, strategically defaulting, or unemployed, AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile will most likely require the more expensive plans or not give any subsidies.
It sounds crazy, but it happens to people with bad credit. And in 2011, there are people with bad credit than there are people with obesity. So, you may start selling your AAPL while you still can.

[turtle777]

Well, there's tons of things that will tank once the full realization of the next (actually continued) recession hits.

It's gonna get worse this time around than in 2008/2009.

Europe is shortly before blowing up, the Euro is going to collapse in the next years. All hell will break lose.

-t

[imitchellg5]

You should go write for Gizmodo, Godfather.

[chabig]

Originally Posted by The Godfather 

With the hundreds of millions of US citizens either foreclosing, shortselling, strategically defaulting, or unemployed...

Considering that the population of the USA is 309 million, you're making quite a statement!

[Big Mac]

Originally Posted by chabig 

Considering that the population of the USA is 309 million, you're making quite a statement!

Haha.

We weren't exactly doing great economically when the iPhone 4 came out, and it's done terrifically. I don't worry about iPhone sales because consumers seem to demand Apple product at a growing rate nearly no matter what. If Apple sales are in trouble, then we have much bigger things to worry about.

[Waragainstsleep]

iPhone 5 will do just fine.

[subego]

I think the iPhone 5 will be in trouble just because my iPhone 4 is still pretty awesome.

[Wiskedjak]

Originally Posted by subego 

I think the iPhone 5 will be in trouble just because my iPhone 4 is still pretty awesome.

Apple is awesome at releasing something-new that will make your currently-amazing-something seem woefully inadequate by comparison.

[Spheric Harlot]

That's actually their business model.

[Wiskedjak]

Originally Posted by Spheric Harlot 

That's actually their business model.

Well, to be fair, that's *every* product manufacturer's business model. Apple is just insanely good at it compared to everyone else.

[subego]

Agreed, but they usually can't (or don't) swing that after a single generation, unless you count the situations where the 1st gen is more of a beta, and the 2nd gen is what the 1st gen should have been.

I personally wasn't moved to upgrade my 1st gen iPhone until iPhone 4.

[Mojo]

Well, I'll be buying two iPhones when they are released. I'll sell my mint condition 3GS (it's been in an Otterbox Defender case since I got the phone...) and keep my wife's 4+ year old LG phone for use when we visit Europe.

Of course, I don't owe a dime to anyone and I don't have a mortgage since my wife and I own our house. We always paid an extra $50-$100 month toward the principle and paid off a 30 year loan in less than 20 years. And we are middle-class working stiffs.

Not everyone refinanced their homes to blow the money on cars and vacations. Or purchased a lot more house than they needed or could afford.

The secret to being financially secure is relatively easy: don't buy what you cannot afford. Save what you can and invest wisely; the earlier you start, the better. And always keep in mind that anything purchased with credit will have to be paid back with time (dollars). Freedom is more important than stuff. It's really hard to walk away from a terrible job if you are leveraged to the hilt. Living within your means increases your options at 18 or 60.

Yeah, I'm an old fart (57 years old). I didn't do it perfectly from the start, but I learned from my mistakes...

[donmontalvo]

Originally Posted by The Godfather 

The reason? Swarms of bad credit.
With the hundreds of millions of US citizens either foreclosing, shortselling, strategically defaulting, or unemployed, AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile will most likely require the more expensive plans or not give any subsidies.
It sounds crazy, but it happens to people with bad credit. And in 2011, there are people with bad credit than there are people with obesity. So, you may start selling your AAPL while you still can.

Drugs have infiltrated our society.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by Mojo 

Well, I'll be buying two iPhones when they are released. I'll sell my mint condition 3GS (it's been in an Otterbox Defender case since I got the phone...) and keep my wife's 4+ year old LG phone for use when we visit Europe.

Of course, I don't owe a dime to anyone and I don't have a mortgage since my wife and I own our house. We always paid an extra $50-$100 month toward the principle and paid off a 30 year loan in less than 20 years. And we are middle-class working stiffs.

Not everyone refinanced their homes to blow the money on cars and vacations. Or purchased a lot more house than they needed or could afford.

The secret to being financially secure is relatively easy: don't buy what you cannot afford. Save what you can and invest wisely; the earlier you start, the better. And always keep in mind that anything purchased with credit will have to be paid back with time (dollars). Freedom is more important than stuff. It's really hard to walk away from a terrible job if you are leveraged to the hilt. Living within your means increases your options at 18 or 60.

Yeah, I'm an old fart (57 years old). I didn't do it perfectly from the start, but I learned from my mistakes...

That's the attitude that got lost in America.

Now we're stuck with whinny, entitled, feel-good socialists.

-t

[The Godfather]

Practically everyone who bought their home after 2003 is an experienced scuba diver, even those who didn't sell their equity in 2007.

[turtle777]

Yep. I'm glad I resisted the call of the suckers. i'm a happy renter.

-t

[Wiskedjak]

I bought in 2001. Even after the recession, I'm still up $150,000 with the value of my house (and climbing). Also, only have $125,000 left on the mortgage, so am currently $25,000 in the black.

[DCJ001]

You should read this

Stearne Agee: iPhone 4 still hot despite upcoming refresh | MacNN

[okboy]

The next iPhone will cost the same amount as the iPhone 4. If not less. So why would there be less incentive to get an iPhone 5 than an iPhone 4? I bet there might be a few reasons to poo-poo the iPhone 5 (especially if the new design specs are true, at least for me), but price is not one of them.

And a phone not being subsidized? Has that ever happened?

So, you may start selling your AAPL while you still can.

OK. This post is from a 14 year old. Don't mean to pick on you, but why was this post featured on the front page of Mac NN? I'm unsubscribing from the RSS.

[The Godfather]

You have to account for the floods of iPhone 4 in craigslist by those who need to make it to the end of the month. In October, 3GS owners will have a hard choice between a $200 iPhone 5 with 2 year contract and a similarly specced i4 for $250 sans contract and possibly jailbreakable.

And Tim Cook does not have reality distortion field.

[sdfalk]

No..

Just a great assortment of products to sell..
and (I'm sure) more then enough people to buy them.
There are other countries besides the U.S as well..
You..ummm..may not be aware of that.
Many of us have money to spend..
Oh well..
So Apple will go on making money..you'll go on being wrong..
Oh sure..EVENTUALLY things may go the other way..
I just don't see it happening anytime soon.

Originally Posted by The Godfather 

You have to account for the floods of iPhone 4 in craigslist by those who need to make it to the end of the month. In October, 3GS owners will have a hard choice between a $200 iPhone 5 with 2 year contract and a similarly specced i4 for $250 sans contract and possibly jailbreakable.

And Tim Cook does not have reality distortion field.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by The Godfather 

And Tim Cook does not have reality distortion field.

Wait, I thought things are getting worse now that Tim is in charge.

-t

[Spheric Harlot]

Originally Posted by The Godfather 

You have to account for the floods of iPhone 4 in craigslist by those who need to make it to the end of the month. In October, 3GS owners will have a hard choice between a $200 iPhone 5 with 2 year contract and a similarly specced i4 for $250 sans contract and possibly jailbreakable.

If I get to choose between a used iPhone out of warranty, and paying less for a brand-new next-generation iPhone for the same price or less, I wouldn't hesitate a SECOND to go for the new. I need a contract anyway.

Given that iPhone 4 supply only really met demand about a YEAR after it was introduced, I'd say I'm probably not *quite* alone in that sentiment.

And "similarly specced" is just you surmising out of your ass, pre-rationalizing why you don't want to upgrade.

(I've found that, so far, a two-year contract gives a decent "happiness" span, while skipping every other generation phone means a marked difference between the old and the new.)

[The Godfather]

I am only pre-rationalizing the tons of people who will walk out of the Apple store iPhone-less because Fico/Experian/Equifax told AT&T it would be a risk to subsidize.
Month-to-month is the only way to go, as you can call customer disservice every 3 months and demand a lower rate, as much needed to equate a subsidy or more. They have obscene margins.

[Cold Warrior]

Someone's credit score would have to be atrocious to be refused postpaid service. And even then, retailers may not use your score, they probably use parts of the credit history to look for bills in collections or where one is well behind.

[Brew City]

Keep everything in proportion here!

1. iPhone 4 changed design significantly mostly because of iPad's square sides. Plus the little antennae thing. So, with iPad2's sleeker sides, iPhone 5 has no choice but to go to the sleeker format. It also puts the antennae issue to rest for anyone who would try to further the myth.

So, if iPhone 5's design is seen as a step forward, this could be an update/entrance point for many people, even though the iPhone 3GS and iPhone 4 are better than 1-2 year devices, as we've seen.

2. iOS 5 will amaze many people into the iPhone 5, even though most features will function with an iPhone 4.

3. Contracts. If people's contracts are up, many will update to iPhone 5. Maybe the delay from July to November had to do with peaking contracts?

4. Carriers. The new carriers will create millions of new iPhone 5 users.

My little conclusion:

If there isn't a major software glitch or hardware flaw, millions of iPhone 3 3GS users have had to skip iPhone 4, and iPhone 5 could be the largest cellphone release (in units) in history.

[loflandl]

Remember ASIA ??? 1 Billion, with a B, users ... HUMM

[godrifle]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

That's the attitude that got lost in America.

Now we're stuck with whinny, entitled, feel-good socialists.

-t

And whinny, entitled, feel-good republicans.

[DBK]

If iPhone 5 sales flatter than expected, suspect people are waiting until G4 network running (next year) and another iPhone version with appropriate chips for G4 available (next year).

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by godrifle 

And whinny, entitled, feel-good republicans.

Like I said, Socialists.

They come in both colors, red and blue.

-t

[Spheric Harlot]

Originally Posted by DBK 

If iPhone 5 sales flatter than expected, suspect people are waiting until G4 network running (next year) and another iPhone version with appropriate chips for G4 available (next year).

Honestly? I don't think anybody cares. Those who'd know to care know that 4G is years from realistic coverage.

No 4G on a two-year contract? So what? I get an iPhone.

[Big Mac]

Fact: Many iPhone 4 owners believe their iPhones are 4G. Most people aren't that technologically sophisticated to know that detail

[turtle777]

^^ Truth.

-t

[P]

Especially as "4G" is only a marketing term this time. 4G this time is either LTE (the Long Term Evolution of GSM-WCDMA, ie the same 3G that the iPhone has had for years now) or WiMAX (which is no more advanced technically than LTE). It was originally intended for more advanced technologies, but ITU caved to pressure. Basically, with WiMAX being a distinct new technology, it need to be branded with some sort of G, so they wanted to call it 4G. With LTE being at least as powerful as WiMAX, it was also officially approved as a 4G standard.

The biggest news for this generation is that the old CDMA-CDMA2000-EVDO technologies will not be developed further. WiMAX will keep the world outside China from focusing on one standard, but it remains to see how much traction it will get.

[Wiskedjak]

Originally Posted by okboy 

And a phone not being subsidized? Has that ever happened?

Yes. All the time. You can walk into a Apple store today and buy a new iPhone4 unlocked and contract free (ie: not subsidized)

[cgc]

Maybe the reverse is true...people who have average credit will splurge on an iPhone to regain their lost status (or appearance of status), in which case Apple sales of iPhone 5 will skyrocket.

[Spheric Harlot]

It'll sell like crazy, regardless of what anybody here wants to theorize.

[Wiskedjak]

Originally Posted by Spheric Harlot 

It'll sell like crazy, regardless of what anybody here wants to theorize.

I'm pretty sure it'd sell like crazy even if most people were in bankruptcy.

[glideslope]

Originally Posted by imitchellg5 

You should go write for Gizmodo, Godfather.

Well, I was in an at&t Brick and Mortar 4 weeks ago. Setting up the Dear Wife with her 4 (the family circle is now complete.)

It was very crowded as this store typically is on a Saturday. I kept hearing something I had not really been exposed to before.

The reps were asking some new at&t customers for $300 deposits. I even saw a request for a $500 up front deposit. Now, this was not every new customer mind you. So it was related to some change in procedure. Credit scores? Perhaps? Some walked away.

All I know is I have not seen it like this, and I am in this store weekly.

[glideslope]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

Well, there's tons of things that will tank once the full realization of the next (actually continued) recession hits.

It's gonna get worse this time around than in 2008/2009.

Europe is shortly before blowing up, the Euro is going to collapse in the next years. All hell will break lose.

-t

It will be worse than this.

[Waragainstsleep]

Originally Posted by glideslope 

I am in this store weekly.

Begs the question: Why?

[anthology123]

People will find a way to pay for the iPhone if they really wanted it. I remember in the heyday of big screen TVs that cost $5000 and more. People had them while living in tiny studio apartments, it showed where there priorities were. In this day of social networks, people will budget themselves for it.

[loflandl]

You forget 600+ million in asia.

[MacCrab]

Originally Posted by The Godfather 

The reason? Swarms of bad credit.
With the hundreds of millions of US citizens either foreclosing, shortselling, strategically defaulting, or unemployed, AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile will most likely require the more expensive plans or not give any subsidies.
It sounds crazy, but it happens to people with bad credit. And in 2011, there are people with bad credit than there are people with obesity. So, you may start selling your AAPL while you still can.

You have to remember, the USA isn't the center of the universe! iPhone's are doing quite well in the 'Other' worlds and selling very very well !

[Brien]

Well, yeah. You get what you pay for. Cheap phones are cheap for a reason.

Smart phones will always be $300+. Example, the Galaxy S Note is like $1000 and people are fawning all over it. I might even jump ship for that phone - it's pretty awesome.

[iCapture]

Originally Posted by Brew City 

3. Contracts. If people's contracts are up, many will update to iPhone 5. Maybe the delay from July to November had to do with peaking contracts?

Wow. Never thought of this. Usually when I hear of a phones delay I get and curse the name of the incompetent over at HQ. I never thought of it from a business standpoint. Release the new phone when the most contracts will be expiring.

[Poliphilo]

There are some exceptions.

For example, sales of luxury cosmetics actually increase during a recession. The reason? People going through hard times need a little something to make them feel better.

I think the iPhone is in the same category. It's a luxury, but it's one that not really going to break the bank.

Foreclose my home, repossess my BMW. You are not getting my iPhone.

[The Godfather]

Originally Posted by iCapture 

Wow. Never thought of this. Usually when I hear of a phones delay I get and curse the name of the incompetent over at HQ. I never thought of it from a business standpoint. Release the new phone when the most contracts will be expiring.

iPhone4 1-year contracts have been expiring since June 7 and iPhone 3GS 2-year contracts have been expiring since June 8.
I think it is more likely that the iPhone 5 or its OS is not finished.

[Spheric Harlot]

There's a huge spike in sales every Christmas quarter.

However, I doubt that's the reason. I concur that it's probably because they need to get iOS 5/iCloud done.

[Big Mac]

There have been multiple rumors of iPhone 5 manufacturing delays.