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You are here: MacNN Forums > Community > MacNN Lounge > Political/War Lounge > Iran Intelligence: A repeat of the Iraq war intelligence?

Iran Intelligence: A repeat of the Iraq war intelligence?
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goMac
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Feb 14, 2007, 03:11 PM
 
Bush is claiming he no longer knows if the Iranian leadership is tied to the Iraq war:

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/02/...nce/index.html

Now it's partisan elements of Iranian groups.

Is it me or does this sound like the Iraq war intelligence all over again? Start with supposed intelligence on a government being involved in activity against our country, and back pedal from there...
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Sky Captain
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Feb 14, 2007, 03:39 PM
 
Iran just got a bloody nose from islamic extremeists.
I can't wait to see how Amajamadingdong handles this.

Oh and there are Iranians in Iraq.
We have their bodies.
The new rockets being used against the helicopters are Iranian.
Wheather it's state funded is the question.
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olePigeon
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Feb 14, 2007, 03:42 PM
 
The level of intelligence on Iranian leadership ties to Iraq is directly proportional to the amount of money Haliburton can make in lucrative contracts.
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tie
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Feb 14, 2007, 03:43 PM
 
It's interesting that the administration has flip-flopped on this in less than a week. People were obviously very skeptical of their earlier claims, and perhaps Bush has even acknowledged feedback from within the intelligence community (gasp!).

Still, I think the evidence that the weapons are coming from Iran is quite strong, and therefore we should invade Iran right after we finish off Venezuela.

More seriously, I don't think Bush is really planning to invade Iran. In that case, it makes sense to leak stronger intelligence to get the warning across to the Iranians and then step away from it in public. There is no need to reveal our sources (if they even exist), and it is perhaps better to leave the Iranians speculating.
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moodymonster
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Feb 14, 2007, 06:15 PM
 
I don't think the US military leadership will allow themselves to be fooled twice.
     
mitchell_pgh
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Feb 14, 2007, 06:32 PM
 
I think the intelligence community might be making a "logic" leap.

They are fining Iranian built weapons and assuming that the Iranians are building/selling them to the Iraqi insurgence. The problem is... The government shouldn't be reporting that information. They should only be reporting facts or speculation AS speculation.

Reporting speculation as fact or near fact... even if very compelling... is WRONG

The fact that they have Iranian machined components in IEDs found in Iraq would at least lay the foundation of further research into the issue.

But that wouldn't sell newspapers.
     
macintologist
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Feb 14, 2007, 07:16 PM
 
Even if Iran is putting millions of dollars into undermining the "war effort", what are we seriously gonna do about it? This country has been thoroughly weakened thanks to the war.
     
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Feb 14, 2007, 08:57 PM
 
We could launch another $2 trillion war against Iran. Except it would end up costing probably much more, and it would likely be mishandled just as badly as the Iraq war. On the plus side, though, Halliburton would surely profit enormously and oil prices would spike so oil companies would also be happy. Bush no doubt has a tough decision.
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macintologist
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Feb 14, 2007, 09:09 PM
 
How long will it take for America to reestablish its credibility after this disastrous war?
     
Warren Pease
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Feb 14, 2007, 09:36 PM
 
This claim I actually can believe. Mines being smuggled across a porous border is much more plausible than nukes on unmanned aerial drones going off in NYC.

Small arms are traded all the time, sometimes legitimately between countries, sometimes not so legitimate.

Iraq's military didn't have any of these shaped charges?
     
goMac  (op)
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Feb 15, 2007, 01:43 AM
 
Originally Posted by Warren Pease View Post
This claim I actually can believe. Mines being smuggled across a porous border is much more plausible than nukes on unmanned aerial drones going off in NYC.

Small arms are traded all the time, sometimes legitimately between countries, sometimes not so legitimate.

Iraq's military didn't have any of these shaped charges?
I'm sure there are weapons being smuggled across the border, the question is how responsible the government of Iran is.
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Sky Captain
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Feb 15, 2007, 11:41 AM
 
Someone is bringing these from Iran.
Now to just catch someone in the act of transporting them.
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Feb 15, 2007, 12:40 PM
 
Originally Posted by macintologist View Post
Even if Iran is putting millions of dollars into undermining the "war effort", what are we seriously gonna do about it? This country has been thoroughly weakened thanks to the war.
We could flatten Iran tomorrow.
     
spacefreak
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Feb 15, 2007, 12:44 PM
 
Originally Posted by Sky Captain View Post
Someone is bringing these from Iran.
Now to just catch someone in the act of transporting them.
The Iranian government just got this shipment of 800 guns, and already over 100 have been found in Iraq. Nowhere to be found is a story of the Iranian goverment reporting anything being stolen, so how else is one to explain how such a large portion of the shipment got into insurgent hands?

But loser liberals will continue to take everything our enemies say as the gospel, all while dismissing or dissing anything our own goverment or our allies report.
     
Taliesin
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Feb 15, 2007, 12:56 PM
 
Soon, the iraqi-sunni-insurgency will probably use american-made-weapons. The US is the single biggest weapon-trader on this planet, I wouldn't be surprised if american wepaons would find its way to sunni iraqi-insurgents.

Iran probably arms shia-militias to the teeth.

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goMac  (op)
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Feb 15, 2007, 01:10 PM
 
Originally Posted by spacefreak View Post
The Iranian government just got this shipment of 800 guns, and already over 100 have been found in Iraq. Nowhere to be found is a story of the Iranian goverment reporting anything being stolen, so how else is one to explain how such a large portion of the shipment got into insurgent hands?

But loser liberals will continue to take everything our enemies say as the gospel, all while dismissing or dissing anything our own goverment or our allies report.
Do you have a link to back that up, or are you just spouting?

How exactly does the US know what exact guns Iran has received?
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subego
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Feb 15, 2007, 01:17 PM
 
Observations and questions:

Does anything like this happen in Iran without some level of government approval?

Despite the constant visual affirmation of Muslims with weapons, as an industrialized and authoritarian country, does the government of Iran just let anyone have a gun? I wouldn't be surprised if the Iranian government keeps very close watch on who they arm.

[edit: I think people in the US, who are used to our extremely broad rights WRT weaponry, see lots of armed Middle Easterners and assume that they have a similar situation. I have no doubt that in a Middle Eastern country with a strong government, the only people who have guns are precisely the people the government wants to have guns.]

Protecting the border against these sort of incursions should be the Iraqi army's primary mission. This is what armies do. Instead, the Iraqi army is being trained to fight local insurgents. This is what police do.
( Last edited by subego; Feb 15, 2007 at 01:25 PM. )
     
Sky Captain
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Feb 15, 2007, 01:31 PM
 
Originally Posted by Taliesin View Post
Soon, the iraqi-sunni-insurgency will probably use american-made-weapons. The US is the single biggest weapon-trader on this planet, I wouldn't be surprised if american wepaons would find its way to sunni iraqi-insurgents.

Iran probably arms shia-militias to the teeth.

Taliesin
I patiently await to see the sunnis flying Boeing fighter jets or Lockheed transports.
And missle defense systems. We do sell M-16s to Israel.
Those are the arms we trade.
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subego
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Feb 15, 2007, 01:51 PM
 
Originally Posted by Taliesin View Post
Soon, the iraqi-sunni-insurgency will probably use american-made-weapons. The US is the single biggest weapon-trader on this planet, I wouldn't be surprised if american wepaons would find its way to sunni iraqi-insurgents.
Not likely. We make weapons for rich armies that have support in the battlefield. Our stuff is way too fiddly for Joe the Jihadist. Just as Sky Captain said, we sell weapons systems. These are expensive, and that's what makes us the biggest arms dealers in terms of dollars.

Insurgents don't use AKs because they're cheap (though that's a factor), insurgents use them because you can drive a truck over them and they still work, they use them because you can make one with some pipe and bar stock.

This is why AKs have killed more people than all of our fancy-schmantz weapon systems combined.
     
Sky Captain
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Feb 15, 2007, 02:23 PM
 
Originally Posted by goMac View Post
Do you have a link to back that up, or are you just spouting?

How exactly does the US know what exact guns Iran has received?
In arms sales agreements, there's a disclosure of contracts to whom the arms go.
They're public record.
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moodymonster
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Feb 15, 2007, 02:58 PM
 
lets see the serial numbers that show that those guns are from Iran. And the evidence that it is a concerted effort by the Iranian gov't.

The US (and UK) gov'ts have a credibility issue with regard to intelligence at the moment.

Last time I assumed the gov't knew more than I did... did they f**k!
     
Sky Captain
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Feb 15, 2007, 04:18 PM
 
That'll be easy enough.
Our troops have caputred over 100 of the .50 cal weapons.

OK, if the weapons prove to be from Iran, what then?
Have the UN say "don't do that again or we'll tell you to not do that again"?
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moodymonster
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Feb 15, 2007, 05:25 PM
 
Well to the best of my limited knowledge the Austrians are quite a fastidious bunch and will most likely marked those guns in such a way that it would be hard to remove the serial numbers. So we'll just have to wait for those to be made public, I'm sure that will, of course, be forthcoming.

The linking of the supplying of those weapons by the Iranian government is another matter. Iran is not a country like one in Europe where everyone sings off the same song sheet.

It would not be massive leap to view the current situation as an excuse to turn the 'daily hate' onto Iran for other reasons.

I have no reason to belive those other reasons are well thought out. I do however feel there are those in the loop who will now act on the basis of reality as opposed to ideology and blind faith.
     
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Feb 15, 2007, 06:20 PM
 
Originally Posted by spacefreak View Post
But loser liberals will continue to take everything our enemies say as the gospel, all while dismissing or dissing anything our own goverment or our allies report.
If America wouldn't have messed up so badly with the intel about Iraq more might believe you. But since you made the most public and most erroneous judgement seen for long time people won't trust you for some time. Maybe you should have listened to what those who opposed this war said from the beginning. You might have more allies for the next president to lie to to get into a new war.


And how do you know that the HS50's are the same as were shipped to Iran? Same way as you knew of the WMD stockpiles under the palm trees in Iraq north, south, east and west of Baghdad?

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Feb 15, 2007, 07:51 PM
 
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tie
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Feb 15, 2007, 08:18 PM
 
Originally Posted by Sky Captain View Post
That'll be easy enough.
Our troops have caputred over 100 of the .50 cal weapons.

OK, if the weapons prove to be from Iran, what then?
Have the UN say "don't do that again or we'll tell you to not do that again"?
Why should the UN say anything? Even if true, this isn't worth fighting a war over. We'll just make some minor retaliations in return.

Iran has been sponsoring insurgents in Iraq for a very long time. I don't find it terribly surprising that they didn't stop after we invaded.
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tie
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Feb 15, 2007, 08:20 PM
 
Originally Posted by Sayf-Allah View Post
And how do you know that the HS50's are the same as were shipped to Iran? Same way as you knew of the WMD stockpiles under the palm trees in Iraq north, south, east and west of Baghdad?
spacefreak himself personally lied in this forum about WMDs. And yet he still continues on about "loser liberals." That's chutzpah!
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Feb 15, 2007, 11:26 PM
 
Yeah he overstepped the "play dumb" mark on that one.
     
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Feb 16, 2007, 05:07 AM
 
Originally Posted by spacefreak View Post
But loser liberals will continue to take everything our enemies say as the gospel, all while dismissing or dissing anything our own goverment or our allies report.
You sound like this guy in his best days:
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Originally Posted by Powerbook View Post
You sound like this guy in his best days:
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