[iomatic]

Is it overvalued or not? According to Suttmeier:

Apple (AAPL:Nasdaq) reached another 52-week high at $71.07 on Monday and is now 45% overvalued. That's its most overvalued reading since March, when a correction of approximately 22% began.

http://thestreet.com/_tscshark/tsc/d...ingdiary1.html

But then, almost a year ago, before the split, he says the same thing:

After Monday's 2-for-1 stock split for Apple Computer (AAPL:Nasdaq - commentary - research), it may be time to book profits and move on to another computer maker.

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/comm...FREE&cm_ite=NA

Is he a hater or just… what? Should I cash out my 50–60% gains? Wish I knew more about options trading.

[gururafiki]

Don't sell. Wait at least until after Apple reports their holiday earnings, which should add a nice boost to that price, and then think of selling.

And speaking of overvalued, I think that if any company should be considered overvalued it would be Google. $400 a share?

[Dork.]

It all depends on how many iPods you think they are going to sell in the next year. Yeah, they sell computers too, but the iPod is where they make their real money now. When they say the stock is overvalued, they really mean that the amount of money they think the company will take in per share does not jive with the share price. What amount of iPod sales are they forecasting, and does it make sense compared with last year's total? If they don't have a decent increase in their numbers, they're probably being too pessimistic.

I took some profits when the stock was at $40 a few months ago. I'm not complaining, I made back all of my initial investment and then some, but I never would have guessed at the time that the stock would hit $70 before the end of the year. So I'm done with betting against AAPL. As far as I'm concerned, it will keep going up (until it stops).

Options are all math, they're easy to understand if you understand the basic underlying math, and there are options techniques that limit your risk (as well as techniques that are very, very risky). There are lots of places online to learn the basic math. But always remember that you're a guppy in the shark tank when you're trading small numbers of options contracts. You will not make as much as someone who trades options for a living, and will probably lose money more often. But if you have the time to track price movements daily as well as some play money lying around, it could be more entertaining than straight stock trades.

[Mrjinglesusa]

I'll stick with the analysts who set a $68 price target about a month ago and are BOTH readjusting to a new price target of $78/share.

[Mrjinglesusa]

I'll stick with the analysts who set a $68 price target about a month ago and are BOTH readjusting to a new price target of $78/share. Also, a lot of people forget to take into account the over $6 billion in CASH Apple is sitting on.

[driven]

I bought a bunch at $28. I just bought a bunch more yesterday at $70. Obviously this latest bet is more high-risk than the first, but then again I thought the first might be overpriced too.

Roll the dice and ride it on .....

I am encouraged with the new target price of $78. I think (just my completely uneducated guess here) that mid-January *might* be a good time to unload for a bit.

[wdlove]

They always say buy low and sell high. The problem is knowing when each occur. The Intel switch will tell much about the future of Apple.

[iomatic]

If the last hundred years of the Dow is correct, now is the time to buy. I keep hearing anecdotes ("Clorox was a $2000 investment, now it pays for our childrens' college!")—some hyper-real—and some real (family, my friends who had parents invest in stocks when they were born, etc., wealthy investor friends).

Yup. The market has always performed. Just depends on what to buy.

So far, my investment in switches helped me make money in the dot-boom to help with my house purchase.

[d0ubled0wn]

Originally Posted by gururafiki

And speaking of overvalued, I think that if any company should be considered overvalued it would be Google. $400 a share?

You probably know this but you can't just look at share price. Also consider how many shares outstanding... GOOG has almost 300 mil shares. IBM by contrast has 1.5 bil shares out there. Still, $400/share is quite high and you're probably right.

[Big Mac]

I don't know Suttmeier, but his boss Jim Cramer thinks Apple is in perma-bull mode. You guys don't watch Mad Money? As long as demand for the iPod does not slacken, AAPL will continue to climb. Too bad I'm not in anymore. As far as GOOG goes, have you seen the revenue and profit growth YOY? It's astounding. GOOG is HOT, and I don't even think we're at the midpoint of its growth. Unfortunately, it's also relatively expensive per share (obviously).

[d0ubled0wn]

I watched Mad Money the other day on advice from a friend. I think every would-be investor should watch him as he lays out advice that's easy to understand. Plus the guy's insane and fun to watch. I just bought his book on Amazon, Real Money.

The show is on CNBC 3,6,9 every day.

[BRussell]

Originally Posted by Dork.

It all depends on how many iPods you think they are going to sell in the next year. Yeah, they sell computers too, but the iPod is where they make their real money now.

Apple still only pulls in about a third of its revenues from iPod sales. Most of its money comes from Mac sales, and then you count software and other stuff, and the iPod is an important part of their business, but I wouldn't say it's where their "real money" is. It's been the fastest growing segment over the last several years for them, that's for sure.

[Dork.]

Originally Posted by BRussell

Apple still only pulls in about a third of its revenues from iPod sales. Most of its money comes from Mac sales, and then you count software and other stuff, and the iPod is an important part of their business, but I wouldn't say it's where their "real money" is. It's been the fastest growing segment over the last several years for them, that's for sure.

Well, the growing parts of the company are going to be where analysts focus most of their attention. That's the rationale they use to raise their forecasts. Consider this: if Apple never got into the iPod business, but the rest of the company did exactly the same over the past four years, would the stock be trading at a split-adjusted 140 right now? Or closer to the 14 value that it traded at in 2003 (when I bought a fair amount of my shares. )

[Dork.]

burp.

[iomatic]

w00t


I'm starting to think the armchair-analyst bloggers are right. The 'media-centric' Mac and iPod will be the wave of the future for, get this: more Mac sales. I think iPod, while brilliant, is part of a long-term strategy to get people into Macs, ultimately. Here's why: iPods are a small, easy-to-use entertainment device. The new iPod takes that a step further, with video content. Now, consumers may want to actually watch content at home-- shows they've missed or can't otherwise get in a broadcast (vs. store-and-forward) format. Well, what do we have here? 1.0 of the media-center iMac, of course. Apple is using entertainment as a marketing portal to the rest of their portfolio. It's quite brilliant, and I can't wait for the stock to split!

[driven]

I just saw the stock price today ..... wow. Money makes me horny.

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by gururafiki

Don't sell. Wait at least until after Apple reports their holiday earnings, which should add a nice boost to that price, and then think of selling.

And speaking of overvalued, I think that if any company should be considered overvalued it would be Google. $400 a share?

The price per share may simply reflect how many shares are in circulation. Expensive shares don't necessarily mean that the company is doing really well.

[Artful Dodger]

Originally Posted by d0ubled0wn

I watched Mad Money the other day on advice from a friend. I think every would-be investor should watch him as he lays out advice that's easy to understand. Plus the guy's insane and fun to watch. I just bought his book on Amazon, Real Money.

The show is on CNBC 3,6,9 every day.

He's an entertainer. You'll lose a lot of money if you listen to him without doing your own DD. Even my dog is smart enough to know that when cramers says buy, it really means sell. You better learn to play the cramer pump and dump game. It's an easy way to make a lot of money. Never go long on anything cramers pumps. People do a whole lot better shorting his calls.