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The Official MacNN COVID-19 Thread (Page 3)
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subego
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Mar 13, 2020, 05:16 PM
 
Illinois schools shut down starting Tuesday.
     
reader50
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Mar 13, 2020, 05:40 PM
 
Visited the store today. Everything was in stock, except the TP. That section was completely cleaned out, even the horrible 1-ply rolls. A good deal of the paper towels had been sold. I hope people don't use it as TP - they'll be spending a lot on plumbing calls if they do.

Lots of bottled water had been sold, but there was plenty left. Over 50% of the water shelves still stocked, with more stacked in the aisles. I forgot to check on the cleansers and soaps.

More people than usual shopping on a weekend morning. Lots of people checking out with full baskets. I bought $20 of essential junk food, and left it at that.
     
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Mar 13, 2020, 07:03 PM
 
[...deleted...]
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[...deleted...]
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OreoCookie
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Mar 13, 2020, 08:48 PM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
Is that definitive ? Do you have a link ?

I read about re-infections in China and Japan.
Perhaps this was due to the two strains.
According to the experts I have heard, it is more likely that this is due to false negative tests. You first test positive, then you get tested negative and then get tested a third time, positive. If the second test was a false negative, it looks as if you have been re-infected, even though you were sick the whole time. Indeed, with things like the flu, you can get them only once (but since the seasonal flu changes every year, you will get the flu again, just another strain, though).
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turtle777
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Mar 13, 2020, 09:14 PM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
According to the experts I have heard, it is more likely that this is due to false negative tests. You first test positive, then you get tested negative and then get tested a third time, positive. If the second test was a false negative, it looks as if you have been re-infected, even though you were sick the whole time. Indeed, with things like the flu, you can get them only once (but since the seasonal flu changes every year, you will get the flu again, just another strain, though).
That’s not what I read.

It was about people that were hospitalized, “recovered” (symptoms and testing ? - not sure), and then had symptoms again days later.

-t
     
turtle777
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Mar 13, 2020, 09:17 PM
 
Well, my company has now asked all office workers to work from home until further notice, expecting to be at least 4-6 weeks.

-t
     
subego
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Mar 14, 2020, 09:55 AM
 
Browsing r/chicago, it looks like we had a mini-food run yesterday.

In other words, we just had multiple gatherings of large groups in enclosed areas.
     
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Mar 14, 2020, 10:43 AM
 
[...deleted...]
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ghporter
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Mar 14, 2020, 11:13 AM
 
Originally Posted by And.reg View Post
You know it’s bad when Chick-Fil-A does not have long lines around the building...
Agreed. The closest Chic-Fil-A store to my location has TWO drive through lanes and is constantly a source of traffic snarling. The one good thing this slump in their business has caused - the ability to drive in that area without risking a waffle fry-related collision - isn't even enjoyable...

On "reinfections": there was a person in quarantine here that was released because someone didn't fully follow the test, retest, double check protocol. Their second retest came back positive AFTER they'd been released. And they went straight to the mall to, I dunno, buy a new "out of quarantine" wardrobe? Anyway, that mall was immediately closed and "deep cleaned." Not that any mall anywhere couldn't use a deep cleaning, but geez folks... Moral: follow the protocols exactly, and be more concerned about public safety than a grumpy person who needs new stuff from Victorias Secret...

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turtle777
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Mar 14, 2020, 12:38 PM
 
It’s almost too late for most of the Western world if Hopi g for a benign outcome.

Think about China: they shut down Wuhan when it only had 443 cases, and the whole province Hubei with 60M people shortly after.

Look at how many cases countries in Europe have, with less population, and estimate the outcome.
It’s going to be way more impactful than China.
China’s early and extreme containment measures (I.e. total shutdown) still resulted in more than 80,000 cases, but they managed to slow down the spread enough, which only paid off weeks later.

Compared to that, most countries are doing nothing meaningful to slow the spread.
And that’s why it’s going to be a shitshow.

Read this excellent data analysis:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca

-t
     
reader50
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Mar 14, 2020, 08:43 PM
 
Looks like the US cases will ramp up next week. Lack of testing means it's likely circulating widely, and the 1-2 week incubation period should be up.
Hospitals in the US could be overrun by coronavirus cases in little more than a week, a former Obama administration senior health official has warned, fearing a “tsunami-like” escalation that would leave tens of thousands in need of inpatient medical care but unlikely to receive it.

Andy Slavitt, who was Obama’s acting administrator of Medicare and Medicaid, said the trajectory of the spread of the virus in the US could follow that of Italy, which has seen cases soar to almost 20,000 and deaths exceed 1,300 in short order.
BTW, if anyone was wondering, the panic buying of TP is a worldwide phenomenon. At least until the TP manufacturers catch up - there isn't any supply shortage. I expect them to catch up to demand in 3-5 weeks. After which there will be awesome sale prices on TP, because no one will be buying. Most people will be sitting on a multi-month supply.
     
andi*pandi
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Mar 14, 2020, 08:47 PM
 
+10 points for "sitting on multi-month supply"

At least it doesn't go bad.
     
Thorzdad  (op)
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Mar 14, 2020, 11:41 PM
 
Originally Posted by And.reg View Post
You know it’s bad when Chick-Fil-A does not have long lines around the building...
My son-in-law took our granddaughter to Chick-Fil-A to let her climb around in their indoor playground, only to discover they’ve closed the playground due to the difficulty of keeping it clean/sanitized. Those things are pretty much toddler habitrails, I guess.
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Thorzdad  (op)
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Mar 15, 2020, 06:42 AM
 
When I want your opinion,-
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subego
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Mar 15, 2020, 12:32 PM
 
Social distancing in action at O’Hare international arrivals yesterday.

     
turtle777
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Mar 15, 2020, 12:46 PM
 
What’s happening ?
I thought airline traffic plunged. Are these people returning from Europe after the flight ban was enacted ?

-t
     
subego
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Mar 15, 2020, 12:48 PM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
What’s happening ?
I thought airline traffic plunged. Are these people returning from Europe after the flight ban was enacted ?

-t
Yup.

This is everybody waiting for screening.
     
turtle777
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Mar 15, 2020, 01:14 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Yup.

This is everybody waiting for screening.
Glad I cancelled my business trip to Mexico tomorrow.
Don’t want to come back to this.

When I returned from Costa Rica a week ago, I had a N95 mask in my luggage. Didn’t use it, but if I were stuck in a crowd like that, I would.

-t
     
subego
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Mar 15, 2020, 02:06 PM
 
Without mask options, I’d be eying the bucket of that cherry picker.

Or, at least wait back inside the terminal. I don’t care if I’m sitting there for 8 hours while everyone else goes first. I’ve got a phone and a charger.
     
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Mar 15, 2020, 08:48 PM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
When I returned from Costa Rica a week ago, I had a N95 mask in my luggage. Didn’t use it, but if I were stuck in a crowd like that, I would.
These masks are not very effective protecting you from being infected. Only if you are infected, do they provide protection to others. That's why it is recommended not to wear them.
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turtle777
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Mar 15, 2020, 09:36 PM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
These masks are not very effective protecting you from being infected. Only if you are infected, do they provide protection to others. That's why it is recommended not to wear them.
Sorry, that’s garbage information. It completely downplays the positive effects.
I’m not listening to officials about that either. They just say this because they failed to stock up / prepare, and are now embarrassed.

Properly fitted, masks reduce risk, and buy time. Period.

It reduces “inoculum” (‘viral loading’). The less inoculum, the less sick you will be. Mark 12’56”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFB_C2ieW5I

This in turn will slow down the viral spread within your own body, and give your body time to mount its defense.

See the following video explaining the effect at mark 16’25”:
https://youtu.be/efaDuE-XEi4

-t
     
OreoCookie
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Mar 16, 2020, 12:02 AM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
Sorry, that’s garbage information. It completely downplays the positive effects.
Conversely, your line of argumentation only weighs the benefits for yourself. There is a shortage of masks for people who really need them, which leads to an accelerated spread of the virus. Care workers have trouble to get their hands on masks, for example, and they can actually benefit from them.

So unnecessarily wearing a mask seems to be making us less safe rather than more safe if you weigh all the factors.
( Last edited by OreoCookie; Mar 16, 2020 at 12:38 AM. )
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subego
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Mar 16, 2020, 12:32 AM
 
Isn’t that in large part due to hoarding, not people having a reasonable personal supply?
     
OreoCookie
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Mar 16, 2020, 12:37 AM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Isn’t that in large part due to hoarding, not people having a reasonable personal supply?
This is due to the jump in demand, and yes, some people are hoarding, too. In Europe and the US, “surgical” masks are not a common household item, so you have an item that wasn't very much in demand before suddenly becoming very desirable. (In Japan that's very different, and even here, there was a run on masks.)
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subego
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Mar 16, 2020, 01:42 AM
 
Yes.

And to what extent is the increase in demand due to hoarding?

Is it wrong to have reasonable personal supply?
     
turtle777
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Mar 16, 2020, 01:54 AM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
Conversely, your line of argumentation only weighs the benefits for yourself. There is a shortage of masks for people who really need them, which leads to an accelerated spread of the virus. Care workers have trouble to get their hands on masks, for example, and they can actually benefit from them.

So unnecessarily wearing a mask seems to be making us less safe rather than more safe if you weigh all the factors.
Bullshit.

It’s not my problem that the government isn’t prepared.
And thanks for admitting that the whole “ masks don’t protect” is a lie, borne out of the failure to prepare.

I would love me some honest government official admitting that they screwed up, and need masks for health care workers. I can get behind that.
What I abhor are stupid lies that deflect from the real issue,
And people like you that mindlessly spout propaganda.

-t
     
subego
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Mar 16, 2020, 04:46 AM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
Care workers have trouble to get their hands on masks, for example, and they can actually benefit from them.
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
These masks are not very effective protecting you from being infected.

     
reader50
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Mar 16, 2020, 01:28 PM
 
None of us here are doctors that I know of. I pay more attention to what doctors say, vs officials. Politicians are particularly prone to lying in my opinion.

Here's what The Guardian says - they're generally skeptical of governments, so I doubt they would pass on official lies.
Claim: ‘Face masks don’t work’

Wearing a face mask is certainly not an iron-clad guarantee that you won’t get sick – viruses can also transmit through the eyes and tiny viral particles, known as aerosols, can penetrate masks. However, masks are effective at capturing droplets, which is a main transmission route of coronavirus, and some studies have estimated a roughly fivefold protection versus no barrier alone (although others have found lower levels of effectiveness).

If you are likely to be in close contact with someone infected, a mask cuts the chance of the disease being passed on. If you’re showing symptoms of coronavirus, or have been diagnosed, wearing a mask can also protect others. So masks are crucial for health and social care workers looking after patients and are also recommended for family members who need to care for someone who is ill – ideally both the patient and carer should have a mask.

However, masks will probably make little difference if you’re just walking around town or taking a bus so there is no need to bulk-buy a huge supply.
What I've gotten from assorted statements by medical personnel:
- if you are sick, masks help protect others by containing your coughs.
- if you are healthy, masks are of limited value unless your eyes are also covered. And you need to wear it right, and not touch your face once-a-minute, as most people do.
- if caring for a sick person, you will most likely get sick unless you also protect eyes, practice nurse-level protections, etc. A mask will hopefully slow your exposure though.
     
Thorzdad  (op)
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Mar 16, 2020, 01:37 PM
 
Here in Indiana, the governor today ordered all restaurants, bars, pubs, etc. closed to eat-in business. For now, they will be able to continue delivery/pick-up services.

I really hope someone in government is thinking really effing hard about how out-of-work citizens are going to pay their rent, mortgage, utilities, insurance, etc. etc. Closing restaurants will hit the more financially at-risk populations. But, as this thing grinds on, the financial toll is going to work its way up the societal ladder. “Surviving” won’t mean shit if the homeless/poor populations has doubled.
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andi*pandi
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Mar 16, 2020, 02:49 PM
 
school closed until april. Work also.
     
turtle777
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Mar 16, 2020, 03:07 PM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
- if you are healthy, masks are of limited value unless your eyes are also covered.
Correct. I purchased a painters goggles that can be worn over regular glasses.

Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
And you need to wear it right, and not touch your face once-a-minute, as most people do.
The most overlooked positive benefit from wearing ANY mask is that it will serve as a reminder NOT to touch your mouth/nose.
For that purposes, even wearing a SOCK will help.

-t
     
subego
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Mar 16, 2020, 03:44 PM
 
Originally Posted by Thorzdad View Post
Here in Indiana, the governor today ordered all restaurants, bars, pubs, etc. closed to eat-in business. For now, they will be able to continue delivery/pick-up services.
Our governor announced that yesterday, to be put into effect today.

I bet money he waited until Sunday because if he had killed St. Pat’s, he’d lose support in the city. Democratic governors here live or die based on that.

I’m not necessarily blaming him. He’s no good if people don’t have confidence in him. This is the kind of decision I’m glad I don’t have to make.
( Last edited by subego; Mar 16, 2020 at 04:21 PM. )
     
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Mar 16, 2020, 06:47 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Reader did me a favor and posted a succinct reply, to which I have nothing to add.
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OreoCookie
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Mar 16, 2020, 06:54 PM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
Correct. I purchased a painters goggles that can be worn over regular glasses.
It sounds to me as if your are prioritizing marginal gains over the big ticket items.
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turtle777
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Mar 16, 2020, 06:56 PM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
Reader did me a favor and posted a succinct reply, to which I have nothing to add.
Succinct, but absent any data or good arguments to further the claim.
These were regurgitated talking head points, but logically incoherent.

...masks are crucial for health and social care workers looking after patients
... recommended for family members who need to care for someone who is ill

... masks will probably make little difference if you’re just walking around town or taking a bus
SHOW ME THE DATA from journals or studies !

Or at least, explain logically why masks help in health care and social work settings, but magically stop working in confined spaces (like a bus).

-t
     
turtle777
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Mar 16, 2020, 06:56 PM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
It sounds to me as if your are prioritizing marginal gains over the big ticket items.
Well, as with all of your assertions above, you have no data, but make bold claims.

-t
     
andi*pandi
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Mar 16, 2020, 07:33 PM
 
aside from how they work, if they work at all it is more important that health care workers have them, because if health care workers get sick, we are all screwed.
     
turtle777
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Mar 16, 2020, 07:56 PM
 
Originally Posted by andi*pandi View Post
aside from how they work, if they work at all it is more important that health care workers have them, because if health care workers get sick, we are all screwed.
I agree. To that end, the government could nationalize stock. Or enact laws that limit supplies to the general public.

But don’t tell me lies to coax me into doing something you want me to do.
Authorities are losing massive amounts of credibility because of this.

-t
     
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Mar 16, 2020, 08:06 PM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
SHOW ME THE DATA from journals or studies !
Reader has cited experts in the field, and you reject their recommendations as propaganda. And now you are asking me to show you the data. I think the onus is on you to provide evidence all these epidemiologists around the world are giving out bad advice.
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
Or at least, explain logically why masks help in health care and social work settings, but magically stop working in confined spaces (like a bus).
Have a look at the CDC's Hierarchy of Controls. Personal Protective Equipment is all the way at the bottom when it comes to effectiveness.

Care workers have to be close to strangers, to people who are infected — it is literally their job. They are around people infected with other diseases, which could be harmful to people whose immune system is weakened by the Covid-19 and for which face masks provide more protection. For regular people, the better advice is to start at the top of the hierachy, e. g. by avoiding gatherings, avoiding public transportation, etc. This is much more effective at reducing the risk of infection than masks or goggles.
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reader50
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Mar 16, 2020, 08:47 PM
 
I went back to the store (an Albertsons) this afternoon. Got the urge for frozen pizza, and was curious about the store conditions. There were a lot of people inside, though only a minority had full baskets. So higher-than-normal buying, but not so much panic buying any more.

TP aisle still bare. It might have gotten stock this morning and sold out, or still pending stock. No data.
Paper towels and facial tissues all sold out. Bottled water either sold out, or getting really thin.
Bleach all sold out. Detergents still in stock.
The bread aisle was bare, but there was bread in the Bakery section. The jazzier types, at higher prices.
Eggs were sold out. Milk in stock at reduced levels, limited to 2-per shopper. Butter and margarine getting thin.
Cerials had lower stock than normal. Canned goods the same. Likewise the pizza. Some specifics sold out, but the shelf had good occupancy.
Chips and Doritos had normal stock.

Most everything else was either normal, or down a little. Normal prices and sales tags, no sign of gouging.
     
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Mar 16, 2020, 09:29 PM
 
For an N95 mask to do YOU any good, it must be properly fitted. They come in a variety of sizes and designs, each of which fits various faces in various ways. You can't just grab a mask and expect it to do anything for you without proper fitting.

This takes a test that verifies the mask fits you well enough to stop a specific (very tiny) droplet size. There is no reliable home fit test. Read about fit testing here.

And oh by the way, an N95 respirator is a little less challenging to wear than an athletic training mask. Since the N95 stops particles down to 0.3 micrometers, it also slows down air movement. It's uncomfortable to wear and do anything in, though not quite as uncomfortable as a military gas mask.

And as noted in this Washington Post article, having untrained and uneducated people just grabbing anything labeled N95 has caused severe shortages of these respirators, which puts healthcare workers' safety in jeopardy.

You see, the average Joe is unlikely to encounter anyone who is symptomatic enough to transmit the COVID-19 virus, and such symptomatic people can be easily avoided - they look and act sick (duh!). But healthcare workers have to be up close and personal with people who are very, very sick in order to take care of them. As an occupational therapist, I have to help very debilitated patients toilet, bathe, etc. I am frequently right up in each patient's face.

So buying up all the N95 masks you can find, regardless of the fact that you can't properly fit them so they won't do jack for you, won't help you at all. But it WILL put a nurse, respiratory therapist, physical therapist, occupational therapist, etc., in real danger. Think about that....

Glenn -----OTR/L, MOT, Tx
     
turtle777
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Mar 16, 2020, 10:29 PM
 
Originally Posted by ghporter View Post
You see, the average Joe is unlikely to encounter anyone who is symptomatic enough to transmit the COVID-19 virus, and such symptomatic people can be easily avoided - they look and act sick (duh!).
Oh boy, so wrong.

Asymptomatic spreading is THE feature of SARS-COV-19.
By the time people show symptoms, they have been contagious for many days, some of them 2-3 weeks.

How can you spread such misinformation ?

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2762028

Even the MSM has caught on by now:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/healt...ead/index.html

Originally Posted by ghporter View Post
So buying up all the N95 masks you can find, regardless of the fact that you can't properly fit them so they won't do jack for you, won't help you at all. But it WILL put a nurse, respiratory therapist, physical therapist, occupational therapist, etc., in real danger. Think about that....
Sorry, just lies / propaganda.

I can learn to fit them enough to give me some level of protection.
I’m trying to protect from sneezing, spitting, droplets.
I don’t need at 100% fit for that.

Plus, you apparently ignored what I posted above about the inoculum (‘viral loading’).

-t
     
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Mar 17, 2020, 01:28 AM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
Oh boy, so wrong.

Asymptomatic spreading is THE feature of SARS-COV-19.
By the time people show symptoms, they have been contagious for many days, some of them 2-3 weeks.

How can you spread such misinformation ?

Sorry, just lies / propaganda.



-t

Ladies and gentlemen, conservative America in a perfectly exemplar nutshell.

A non-medical professional arguing with an actual doctor (and a military one at that - mentioned only to highlight the absence of the genuine respect conservatives pretend to have for people in the services) in order to justify selfish behaviour with a potential real cost to others.


Having said that, I have also heard claims that the asymptomatic are suspected to be the main vector for spreading this virus. Which is odd because the clinical research to date shows they have massively lower viral loads and are vastly less contagious than those with symptoms. I wonder if something is being missed. Maybe its douchebags in Walmart licking the ice cream. (Imagine how much worse that guys sentence would be if he was tried this week)

Regardless, its still true that medical professionals will benefit far more from those masks than others. If you aren't on the list of vulnerable people then its very difficult to justify. Just stick to hoarding TP and enjoy being smug that all the liberal snowflake sucks can't afford to wipe their asses as thoroughly as you can.
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
OreoCookie
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Mar 17, 2020, 06:34 AM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
Oh boy, so wrong.
Glenn is a health care professional, so I would not be so quick to dismiss him as “wrong”, being caught by the “MSM” or accusing him of “lying/spreading propaganda”. I think he knows more about the topic than either of us do.

Instead of everyone else being wrong, isn't it conceivable to you that you are wrong?
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
Asymptomatic spreading is THE feature of SARS-COV-19.
By the time people show symptoms, they have been contagious for many days, some of them 2-3 weeks.
We all know that. The current strategy is not containment, containment is no longer an option. In all likelihood a large share of the population will get infected, and even the most rigorous measures will only slow down this process. All current strategies are about flattening the curve so as to avoid overloading the health care system.
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
I can learn to fit them enough to give me some level of protection.
I’m trying to protect from sneezing, spitting, droplets.
I don’t need at 100% fit for that.

Plus, you apparently ignored what I posted above about the inoculum (‘viral loading’).
You best protect from that by distancing and limiting travels. This is much more effective at slowing down the spread than wearing a mask.
( Last edited by OreoCookie; Mar 17, 2020 at 08:46 AM. )
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P
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Mar 17, 2020, 08:16 AM
 
Originally Posted by andi*pandi View Post
aside from how they work, if they work at all it is more important that health care workers have them, because if health care workers get sick, we are all screwed.
ObNitpick: the reason for health care workers to have protective equipment is not to prevent them getting ill. They will get ill the same way everyone else will, out in society. The point is to avoid them spreading it to already weakened patients in their care. This is why hoarding protective equipment is dangerous.

There are of course degrees to all of this. The woman at the counter in the Thai takeaway was wearing a mask last Saturday (she does whenever there is flu season, so this isn't unusual). I find that a reasonable use, because she comes into contact with a lot of people, so taking care to not spread anything makes sense. For someone like me, who works in an office and has meetings with the same people all day, it is wasteful.
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turtle777
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Mar 17, 2020, 10:11 AM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
You best protect from that by distancing and limiting travels. This is much more effective at slowing down the spread than wearing a mask.
You are moving the goal post.
I never argued social distancing is not needed to not effective.
I believe it is, and I practice it.

You and Glen make weeping statements about the ineffectiveness of masks worn by the general public.
Those statements are ill-conceived.

Masks, combined with social distancing are MORE effective in slowing the spread than social distancing by itself.
There are situation one has to go out in public, even when practicing social distancing.

-t
     
Ham Sandwich
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Mar 17, 2020, 12:53 PM
 
[...deleted...]
( Last edited by Ham Sandwich; Apr 23, 2020 at 10:40 AM. )
     
subego
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Mar 17, 2020, 12:59 PM
 
The National Review is still a thing?
     
turtle777
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Mar 17, 2020, 04:45 PM
 
More and more signs point towards asymptomatic spreading having been underestimated:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/healt...ead/index.html

-t
     
 
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