[siflippant]

FT.com / World - World will face oil crunch ‘in five years’

Oh man... I REALLY hope the clever ppl are working on alternative energies otherwise we could be in serious trouble...

Here's a good site to check out if you're interested:

Peak Oil: Life After the Oil Crash

[Chuckit]

I could swear I heard the same thing five years ago.

[Doofy]

Attention: There is no such thing as peak oil. It's all BS invented by Opec to keep the pump prices up and keep you gullible enough to pay them.

[Mastrap]

^ I disagree. In fact, we're beginning to feel the beginnings of peak oil already. Keep in mind that 'peak oil' does not mean 'running out of oil', it simple means, 'not having enough to keep the economy running the way it has been'. Peak oil does not need to mean catastrophe and bedlam, but it does mean that it would be a really good idea to stop burning the stuff.

(Let's discuss)

[- - e r i k - -]

Originally Posted by Doofy 

Attention: There is no such thing as peak oil. It's all BS invented by Opec to keep the pump prices up and keep you gullible enough to pay them.

Yes. It's all a big conspiracy isn't it?

[Kevin]

It's oil, and it's peaking at u.

[Doofy]

Originally Posted by - - e r i k - - 

Yes. It's all a big conspiracy isn't it?

No. Just good business sense.

North Sea oil analyst: "Not any time soon. Not in your grandchildren's lifetime."

[Mastrap]

Originally Posted by Doofy 

No. Just good business sense.

North Sea oil analyst: "Not any time soon. Not in your grandchildren's lifetime."

Are you sure? From what I know, North Sea production is declining at an increasing rate, having peaked in 1999.
Currently the annual rate of decline is 7%, but is predicted to accelerate to 11%.

[Doofy]

Originally Posted by Mastrap 

Are you sure?

Just going from what the bloke in the know says.

[Mastrap]

Originally Posted by Doofy 

Just going from what the bloke in the know says.

I'd double check that. Not looking for an argument, but everything I've read states pretty much the opposite. The UK is already an oil importer (first happened in 2004, then again in 2006 and predicted to be a permanent state of affairs from 2009 at the very latest).

North Sea oil output peaked at about 2.9m barrels per day in 1999, and has been predicted to fall to only 1.6m bpd by 2007. North sea oil output is now at the same level it was in 1989, ten years before it's peak.

Your buddy might very well be right that oil from the North Sea won't disappear completely, the problem is of whether it'll be there in any meaningful amounts.

[Charles Bouldin]

There are now tone of books about "peak oil". This is one of the first and I think the best. Believe it, the oil party is over:
Amazon.com: Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage: Books: Kenneth S. Deffeyes

The gist of it. A guy named Hubbert predicted in 1959 that USA oil produciton would peak, never to rise again, in 1971. He was, at the time, considered a lunatic. He was also correct. The same analysis applied to world oil production suggests that peak global production is right now. We face continually falling production and rising demand at the same time.

To understand Hubbert's analysis, just remember this: The probability of catching a fish when you throw out a line is proportional to the number of fish left in the lake. Same with oil drilling.

The guy who wrote the book, Defeyyes, is not an alarmist, he is just telling it straight. I highly recommend the book.

[Doofy]

Originally Posted by Mastrap 

I'd double check that. Not looking for an argument, but everything I've read states pretty much the opposite. The UK is already an oil importer (first happened in 2004, then again in 2006 and predicted to be a permanent state of affairs from 2009 at the very latest).

Without wishing to venture too far into politics, cock an eye at which car-hating and import-loving political party has been in power during that time. And then check who has the power to hand out oil licences and regulate production.

I'm not saying that's the cause, but with this lot I wouldn't rule it out either.

I guess we'll see in a few years. If oil *is* running out then the government had better start switching their tax take over to something else.

[Mastrap]

It's not just the tax base, which is of course important, all of us will need to make adjustments. Our entire economy is dependent on oil. The problem is not so much the developed world, where peak oil is pretty much accepted (the US Department of Energy predicts a continuos slide in oil production from 2037) the problem lies with the developing world and particularly with China which has a: an insatiable hunger for energy, b: the military might to secure it by force and c: a totalitarian government that will do whatever it needs to to survive.

Personally I see peak oil as an opportunity to move away from an oil dependent economy. My personal recommendation is to start investing in land, with access to clean water, and renewable energy technologies.

[nonhuman]

Peak oil is a good thing. Even if it's just a conspiracy by OPEC to keep oil prices high. The higher oil prices are, and the longer they stay that way, the more alternatives we'll get and the better they'll be. Eventually it will become more cost effective to go with some alternative and we'll see a mass migration away from petroleum products. The net result will be greater competition in the energy generation segment which will result in lower prices for everyone.

[Eug]

Peak oil is a theoretical concept, and one that has some flaws. However, the statement that sooner or later oil supply vs. cost is going to be a major issue is a correct statement. Actually neither sooner nor later. It's already happened, with crude oil prices over $70.

Sure OPEC conspires to keep prices high, but they've been doing that for just about forever now. It's good business sense on their part. They get to make loads of profit, while not depleting their source of profit too quickly. Again, it will only serve to increase prices as time goes on. In the meantime, these countries are busily diversifying their finances, so that they too are not dependent upon oil alone. Again, it's good business sense. They make a crapload of money from oil, but they're not stupid enough to think that oil will support them forever.

What about oil from other than the OPEC nations? Nowadays oil sands in Canada are all the rage, simply because prices are so high. Net energy from oil sands is positive, but it's relatively low, and costs are high. So, yeah, alternative sources of oil are in fact coming online, but most can only exist when prices remain high. (BTW, Canada's recoverable oil reserves are second only to Saudi Arabia.)

So, while from a theoretical perspective, I don't see oil production per se to be an issue in the next decade, I do see oil prices continuing to be a significant problem, and one that may just get worse.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Shame the Trillion + bucks spent on killing middle Easterns wasn't put towards developing another energy source.

[OldManMac]

Originally Posted by Doofy 

Just going from what the bloke in the know says.

So he's the only bloke in the know?

[tie]

The United States has 2000 years of coal reserves that can make oil at $40 a barrel. Wake me up when we run out.

The urgent problem right now is global warming.

[Spliffdaddy]

I've concluded that there are no problems worth worrying about. Feel free to jump on the bandwagon of each and every new problem that threatens to doom the world. Pretty much all of us will die of old age. I'll have spent my life enjoying it - not in fear of it.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Spliffdaddy 

I've concluded that there are no problems worth worrying about.

Nothing matters in the world!

Originally Posted by Spliffdaddy 

Pretty much all of us will die of old age.

Assuming we've all got good health coverage.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by Doofy 

Attention: There is no such thing as peak oil. It's all BS invented by Opec to keep the pump prices up and keep you gullible enough to pay them.

Everyone knows deep within the Earth is the fountain of neverending oil. It's the same place that the grove of neverending trees and hatchery of neverending fish is kept.

[nonhuman]

The fact that the human lifespan is pretty constantly increasing as we improve our medical technology would suggest that no one has ever, in the history of the human race, died of old age.

[Spliffdaddy]

woohoo! So not only are there no problems worth worrying about - I also won't be dying of old age!

[nonhuman]

Originally Posted by Spliffdaddy 

woohoo! So not only are there no problems worth worrying about - I also won't be dying of old age!

Isn't it great?

[Uncle Skeleton]

Originally Posted by Spliffdaddy 

I've concluded that there are no problems worth worrying about.

Not even abortions and terrrists?

[nonhuman]

Originally Posted by Uncle Skeleton 

Not even abortions and terrrists?

I'm pretty sure Spliffy's too old to be aborted, even under the most liberal of abortion policies, and terrorism has never really been a big threat. So, yes.

[Wiskedjak]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Peak oil is a theoretical concept, and one that has some flaws.

How many liters of oil are consumed every day? At what rate is that rate of consumption accelerating? How many millennia does it take to produce a liter of oil? There doesn't seem to be anything wrong with the concept of "peak oil". The theories are in when we will hit it, not if.

[nonhuman]

Originally Posted by Wiskedjak 

How many liters of oil are consumed every day? At what rate is that rate of consumption accelerating? How many millennia does it take to produce a liter of oil? There doesn't seem to be anything wrong with the concept of "peak oil". The theories are in when we will hit it, not if.

As usual, it's the fundamentalist Christians who would disagree. The Young Earthers, in particular, believe that it takes very little time for new oil reserves to form (obviously, since the Earth is only 6000 years old) and so there's no problem and no reason to restrain our oil use.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Wiskedjak 

How many liters of oil are consumed every day? At what rate is that rate of consumption accelerating? How many millennia does it take to produce a liter of oil? There doesn't seem to be anything wrong with the concept of "peak oil". The theories are in when we will hit it, not if.

So you're saying the theories are perfect then?

P.S. I guarantee we will not have serious oil production problems within five years. These statements get made every few years. We will have noticeably more oil production in 2012 than we do now. Prices will be high, but that's a different story.

[smacintush]

Originally Posted by Spliffdaddy 

I've concluded that there are no problems worth worrying about. Feel free to jump on the bandwagon of each and every new problem that threatens to doom the world. Pretty much all of us will die of old age. I'll have spent my life enjoying it - not in fear of it.

Seconded!

[Wiskedjak]

Originally Posted by Eug 

So you're saying the theories are perfect then?

P.S. I guarantee we will not have serious oil production problems within five years. These statements get made every few years. We will have noticeably more oil production in 2012 than we do now. Prices will be high, but that's a different story.

P.S. I'm not saying I believe we will have serious oil production problems within five years, or even with our lifetimes. I'm just saying that if we continue to consume a resource at an ever increasing rate that is significantly faster than the rate at which it becomes available for consumption, then eventually there will no longer be enough of that resource available to meet our needs. At that point, the only question remaining is when.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Wiskedjak 

P.S. I'm not saying I believe we will have serious oil production problems within five years, or even with our lifetimes. I'm just saying that if we continue to consume a resource at an ever increasing rate that is significantly faster than the rate at which it becomes available for consumption, then eventually there will no longer be enough of that resource available to meet our needs. At that point, the only question remaining is when.

Yeah, but that is simply restating the totally obvious.

In the meantime, development of alternative energy sources will continue to expand.

Thus, I personally don't think we'll have the sky-is-falling-peak-oil scenarios that some claim will happen. It will likely be a more gradual transition, albeit with high prices and growing pains of course.

I fully support the concepts of energy conservation and what-not, and indeed, I drive a hybrid car myself. However, I think some of the peak-oil-theory advocates are simply guilty of fear mongering.

[black bear theory]

US oil production was predicted to peak in 1971 by hubbert. after the fact, i'd say it was more 1972/1973 but still a pretty good estimate. having hit the peak of oil production, we still are able to produce oil over 30 years later though not in the same abundance.

not surprisingly, it was at that time our dependance on foreign oil really picked up.

http://web.ncf.ca/ez469/OilPeak/image008(US).gif
link to a larger image w/o extrapolation

the same is happening in the north sea.

link to image for UK/norway production in north sea

we'll never get to all the oil, though modern drilling techniques will ensure that less is left in the ground.

[Eug]

So are people now changing "peak oil" to mean "US peak oil" intead of "global peak oil"?

Anyways, I do not subscribe to the belief that the peak of global oil production is now. We now have access to a whole new source of oil production in the oil sands, and that oil production has been gradually been ramping up because it finally makes sense to do so. Overall it means that oil production is increasing, and will likely increase throughout the next decade. Maybe some time after that it will slowly decline, but again, it's likely not going to be a catastrophe as alternative energy sources ramp up.

What I'm more worried about locally (Canada) is the so-called Dutch Disease. In Canada, oil revenues are going through the roof, which has meant a marked increase in the valuation of our dollar, at least compared to the US dollar. Because of this, our export sector has suffered greatly.

[Uncle Skeleton]

Originally Posted by Wiskedjak 

P.S. I'm not saying I believe we will have serious oil production problems within five years, or even with our lifetimes. I'm just saying that if we continue to consume a resource at an ever increasing rate that is significantly faster than the rate at which it becomes available for consumption, then eventually there will no longer be enough of that resource available to meet our needs. At that point, the only question remaining is when.

This isn't necessarily true. The human race has a finite lifetime, and if the oil will end up lasting longer than that, there is no peak oil.

Imagine "peak oil" is cancer. "Everyone will die of cancer, eventually, the only question is when." That statement is false (obviously), because many people die of other things besides cancer. You could argue that if all other causes of death were cured, then everyone would die of cancer...but that's a pointless and irrelevant tautology similar to the one you said.

Or to put it another way, the Sun is a finite resource too, but no one talks about "peak solar" because it doesn't apply to us; there's no way we're going to be around long enough to face that problem. I guess what I'm saying is, without timetables and specifics, the "finite resource" boogeyman is irrelevant.

[tie]

Originally Posted by Spliffdaddy 

I've concluded that there are no problems worth worrying about. Feel free to jump on the bandwagon of each and every new problem that threatens to doom the world. Pretty much all of us will die of old age. I'll have spent my life enjoying it - not in fear of it.

Originally Posted by smacintush

Seconded!

Perhaps this is the true Conservative Myth? Create more problems than you solve (budget deficits, global warming, Iraq), and leave them to the next Democratic administration? Interesting philosophy.

[smacintush]

Originally Posted by tie 

Perhaps this is the true Conservative Myth? Create more problems than you solve (budget deficits, global warming, Iraq), and leave them to the next Democratic administration? Interesting philosophy.

If you say so…

[TETENAL]

Originally Posted by Uncle Skeleton 

This isn't necessarily true. The human race has a finite lifetime, and if the oil will end up lasting longer than that, there is no peak oil.

In the last 100 years mankind burned half of all available oil. And since energy use now is and continues to be larger than it used to be in the past, it looks like a safe bet that mankind will still be around when oil production peaks. Most of us will still be around probably.

[Wiskedjak]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Yeah, but that is simply restating the totally obvious.

In the meantime, development of alternative energy sources will continue to expand.

Originally Posted by Uncle Skeleton 

This isn't necessarily true. The human race has a finite lifetime, and if the oil will end up lasting longer than that, there is no peak oil.

In which case, the rate of consumption decreases. I know it's stating the obvious, but there are some who seem to fail to grasp the obvious. If oil consumption continues at it's current accelerating rate, we will eventually run out of oil. There are many ways to decrease the rate of consumption; alternative energy and no humans are just two.

[Spliffdaddy]

*WE* will not run out of oil. Everybody will back me up on that fact. Future generation might encounter a shortage - but we'll be dead for a long time prior.
I plan to enjoy my life as long as it lasts. There is no chance I'll be giving up my gas-guzzling automobile. None whatsoever. If other people choose to reduce their energy consumption, then that's great. It's their decision. They can frown as I drive by in a car that gets 9MPG. One of us will die happy.
Life isn't about worry. It's about enjoyment. Future generations will never miss the gasoline I burn today. If anything, they will envy me - and deep in their heart they will understand. If they had the gasoline, they would love to be behind the wheel of a fuel injected V12.
What I'm trying to say is you'll have to work around me. Save the planet without my help. Hell, the planet was created for me, best I can tell.

[Wiskedjak]

Originally Posted by Spliffdaddy 

*WE* will not run out of oil. Everybody will back me up on that fact. Future generation might encounter a shortage - but we'll be dead for a long time prior.

Agreed. By 'we', I mean to say 'human civilization'. Of course, since that is also not quite accurate, it would just be better to say that, if the current rate of consumption continues, the our planet's supply of oil will cease to meet the needs of future civilizations.

[Doofy]

Who gives a toss about the needs of future generations? They'll be a bright bunch, I'm sure they'll be able to work something out.

[Spliffdaddy]

You don't miss what you never had.
But. actually, Doofy, future generations are doomed regardless of what we do. Sh!t, they can't even spell properly.

When you hear the music of a V12 at 6500RPM, you won't give a rat's behind about the future generation. You won't even give a rat's behind about the present one. All you'll be thinking is that the Brits did something right...except for the fact that it ain't safe to rev the sucker to 7500RPM unless you know a good mechanic. And why on Earth didn't they equip it with a rev limiter?

[Spliffdaddy]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and suggest you don't even need a hot chick if your Jag V12 is turning at 7,000 RPMs. It's an instant orgasm. You can't buy that sort of thing for $2.99 a gallon. Well, OK, yes you can. Certainly a lot less expensive than picking up the tab at Longhorn Steakhouse for $55.00 - and not even getting a goodnight kiss.

[Doofy]

Spliffy, my good man, do yourself a favour and slip it into top at about 10 mph. Then boot it.
There ya go. That's why it's a V12.

[Spliffdaddy]

Man, if I hadn't been slurpin Newcastle Brown Ale's and Long Island Iced Teas since 1:30 pm I would totally fire up the XJS and get sideways. In fact, I might just do it anyways. In five minutes I can undo whatever good was done by a dozen Toyota Priuses in the last 2 years. In fact, I might just let the 500E Benz idle while I thrash the XJS. That should cause the global temp to increase by .5C degrees. If it weren't for the Germans and the Brits my life would lack meaning.

edit, or I could just change the oil in the Jag. It holds 10 quarts. I'll dump the dirty oil in the storm drain.

[Spliffdaddy]

OK, I just completed the most hellacious burnout this backward-ass county will ever see. The blue smoke is so thick that my neighbors won't be able to drive to work in the morning. I got a standing ovation from my neighbor who has a Hemi Dodge pickup. Tomorrow I'll need to buy a couple of Pirelli tires. I almost burned them down to the Dayton wire wheels. It'll take a week to get the acrid smokey rubber smell out of my Wilton wool carpets.

You liberal treehuggers will need to start over.

[Eug]

It seems Spliff has a few us-vs-them issues...