[Powerbook]

This election is gonna be interesting - Chirac is going out of office after 14 years as president. Sarkozy seems like a logical successor, but with 30% undecided voters it's absolutely unclear.

--
Election Uncertainty from the Center
By Kim Rahir in Paris

Just two days before France votes for a new president, nobody has a clue what will happen. Even though they are leading the polls, both Nicolas Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal are afraid of the man in the middle, centrist candidate François Bayrou.

The "ghost of April 21 ... hangs over the election," writes left-leaning French daily Libération. The reference is to election day five years ago, when the left side of the French political spectrum scattered their votes among a handful of candidates opening the door for right-winger Jean Marie Le Pen to slip into the run-off vote with an astonishing 16.9 percent of the vote.

Le Pen is still part of the French political scenery, but this time, the man who is striking fear into the hearts of many in France is not the leader of the extreme nationalist National Front, but rather the unassuming farmer François Bayrou. The centrist candidate has neither the fire of center-right candidate Nicolas Sarkozy nor the charm of Socialist candidate Ségolène Royal. But, as demonstrated at a rally of 17,000 supporters in Paris on Wednesday night, he has a good chunk of the electorate behind him.

Indeed, even as Sarkozy, with 28.5 percent support according to the polling group TNS-Sofres, and Royal, with 25 percent, continue to lead just two days before the French go to the polls on Sunday for the first stage of the vote, both the right at the left are casting worried glances over their shoulders at Bayrou. He remains in third position with 19 percent, according to the same poll. But French voters are notoriously unpredictable. Royal is concerned that Bayrou could deprive her of a slot in the run-off election to be held on May 6. And should conservative Sarkozy end up facing Bayrou next month, polls show that the former interior minister could very well lose out.

Issues, in short, are out the window. No one is talking about Sarkozy's hard-line immigration policies anymore. Royal's controversial social spending plans are likewise passé. Instead, the phrase on every French voter's mind is vote utile ("useful vote"). Even French politicians themselves are calling on the French to vote responsibly. Memories of 2002 -- and of May 2005 when the electorate rejected the European Union constitution in a fit of pique -- are still fresh.

Vote utile means not wasting votes, out of protest or defiance, on parties that don't stand a chance of winning. Doing so could ensure a repeat of 2002 when no center-left candidate got out of the first round.

"I continue to fight so that the French, in the second round of the election, will have the choice that was taken away from them in 2002," Royal said recently on French television when asked whether she believes that she will in fact make it past Sunday. François Hollande, Royal's partner and head of her Socialist Party, is doing everything he can -- by taking every opportunity remind voters of the need for their vote utile.

But Hollande and his Socialists aren't alone -- the ultra-leftists and the Greens are also claiming that voting for them is utile. Communist Marie-Georges Buffet says a vote for her is useful to achieve a "leftist dynamic" in the second round. Green Party candidate Dominique Voynet likewise pleads for a vote utile: "Otherwise no one will ever mention environmental policy again in the next five years."

Only Bayrou could beat Sarkozy
Bayrou though is also telling voters that the only true, useful vote is the one cast for him. "Who is the only candidate who, according to all the opinion polls, could beat Sarkozy in the second round?" Bayrou demanded of his supporters on Wednesday. "Who is the only candidate who is bringing movement at the fringes? Because I combine these two traits, the useful vote on Sunday is the one that is cast for me."

Bayrou's rhetoric is far from standard campaign palaver. The centrist candidate knows that many voters on the left are concerned that even if Royal does make it into the second round, she will go no further. Bayrou's reading of the polling data is, it seems, correct: If the second round ends up being a duel between Royal and Sarkozy, the winner would likely be the conservative former interior minister. Only Bayrou, polls seem to indicate, could prevent Sarkozy from succeeding Jacques Chirac as France's next president.

Libération is warning its readers against Bayrou's siren songs and his apparent strategy to exploit the left's tout sauf Sarkozy ("anything but Sarkozy") attitude. "Does the left have to be sidelined, merely because its candidate dresses overly conservatively and sometimes talks like an officer's daughter?" the paper wonders nervously. The truly useful vote, according to Libération, can only be a vote for Royal and not one that supports Bayrou as the lesser evil when compared to Sarkozy.

The right more nervous than the left
But in truth the first Socialists are already beginning to come to terms with the prospect of a President Bayrou. Michel Rocard, Socialist Party member and former prime minister under President Francois Mitterand, says that the Socialists should join forces with Bayrou's UDF party. Dominique Strauss-Kahn, a former contender for his party's presidential nomination, likewise no longer completely rules out the possibility of becoming prime minister under Bayrou.

And this development makes the right almost more nervous than the left. To challenge Bayrou's claim to the label of liberal centrist politician, Sarkozy had already secured the endorsement of popular politician Simone Veil. On Wednesday, former President Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, a co-founder of the UDF and Bayrou's political mentor, likewise called upon the French to vote for Nicolas Sarkozy. Bayrou, d'Estaing said in a Thursday interview with Le Pariesien, means uncertainty, while Sarkozy will propose his policies to the French "without ambiguity."

Bayrou, though, could profit from the snub from these liberal politicians. Not only do Veil and Giscard d'Estaing represent France's political center, but they also stand for the establishment, a handful of people who have been divvying up power amongst themselves for decades. And whenever one of these politicians gives him the cold shoulder, Bayrou uses it as an opportunity to assure voters that he is in fact the only candidate who is truly opposed to politics as usual.

"France is holding its breath"
It hardly matters that the centrist candidate from France's southwest is as much a product of the elites as many a mainstream politician. What does matter is that he has made their demise part of his campaign platform. In responding to his loss of d'Estaing's support, Bayrou said triumphantly on Wednesday: "Just look at the camp where they congregate, the standard-bearers of these decades that are now coming to an end, all of them intent on defending their monopoly and their privileges. And look, just this evening one of them has hurried to join their worried ranks. This is the proof that we, and not these exhausted politicians, stand for change."

Whether these promises will encourage French voters to send Bayrou into the second round is impossible to predict, despite all polls. Not a single pollster had expected Le Pen's success in the first round of the 2002 election. "Everyone is expecting major surprises," writes Parisien. "Effective immediately, France is holding its breath."
'France Is Holding Its Breath': Election Uncertainty from the Center - International - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News

[Powerbook]

The candidates:

Nicolas Sarkozy, Gaullist UMP


Ségolène Royal, Socialists


Francois Bayrou, Center


Jean-Marie Le Pen, Far-Rights


Olivier Besancenot, Communists

[villalobos]

It will be Sarkozy against Royal according to polls outside the voting places. I think she will win the second round.

[pooka]

We'll make you a deal. Put Royal into office over there and we'll get Hillary into office over here. Then they can scissor.

[nonhuman]

The socialist chick ain't bad lookin'...

[Mithras]

I'm a liberal but I think Sarkozy is the better choice. He seems more willing to implement some needed reforms and less likely to promise the sky. A French conservative is roughly equal to Al Gore here in the US anyway.

[lil'babykitten]

Methinks Sarkozy will probably take it.

[Aron Peterson]

Royal is just another smiler. She won't even outline what she will do in power. Just says "We are great. We are high. We're going to change. The future is bright. Vive Le France."

That's not a manifesto. That's more of the same rhetorical promises that held France back and coupled with the long time boring anti-Americanism caused economic damage to French workers and created ghettos for immigrants.

Sarkozy would finally end those bad habits of hating the world and being unrealistically patriotic. He'll control immigration and create strong economic ties with Britain, the US, Germany and Asia, and that will bring money into the country to create jobs and wealth so that the French will be able to compete on the world stage and African and Arab immigrants who are already in France will be able to find work instead of waiting and waiting for Royal's empty promises to come true.

The socialists are using fear and making Sarkozy out to be Hitler or something. It's like 1984 - big brother (big sister in this case) telling people everything is good, and to be scared at the same time.

[Buckaroo]

The winner of the election will immeadiatly surrender to the loser.

[Buckaroo]

Originally Posted by nonhuman 

The socialist chick ain't bad lookin'...

Bow wow

[tboparis]

So now it's Sarkozy against Segolene Royal. Unfortunately Sarkozy is probably going to win.

Royal might not do anything and is just coming up with lots of great promises but IMO Sark0zy is kind of scary and is NOT any better.

[Dakarʒ]

They covered the hot chick on Colbert last night. Looks surprisingly good in a bikini.

[Big Mac]

French politics must be pretty exciting.

[BRussell]

I'd vote for whoever promises to get all the scum off the streets.

[Mithras]

I think someone should just take this city and just... just flush it down the ****in' toilet.

[Monique]

If you look at the tendency in Europe, Sarkozy will the perfect president at this time. 10 years ago Royal would have been a great president. Now she is too weak to deal with terrorism, and the assimilation of her country by the Muslim world.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by Monique 

Now she is too weak to deal with terrorism, and the assimilation of her country by the Muslim world.

Perhaps they should elect Captain Jean Luc Picard instead?

[villalobos]

Originally Posted by Buckaroo 

The winner of the election will immeadiatly surrender to the loser.

You are funny.

[Aron Peterson]

Originally Posted by tboparis 

So now it's Sarkozy against Segolene Royal. Unfortunately Sarkozy is probably going to win.

Royal might not do anything and is just coming up with lots of great promises but IMO Sark0zy is kind of scary and is NOT any better.

Nonsense. Sarkozy is an economist. The problem with France is that for many years they never had an economist leader. They had a string of uber-patriots and socialists who did nothing but sat around complaining about successful people, nations and companies that weren't French.

Sarkozy will try to change the mentality. That's why he has so many voting for him, because in France they see how well Anglo-American capitalism works and how the new Asian giants are rising up using the same economic model, and the French want to be part of that. They are fed up with jealousy and want to be successful and also want a realistic leadership who will do something about the ghettos.

Scary? No, he's just a Thatcherite for France. About time.

[Dakarʒ]

Originally Posted by villalobos 

You are funny.

And original.

[tboparis]

Originally Posted by Aron Peterson 

Sarkozy will try to change the mentality. That's why he has so many voting for him

And even more who are radically against him.
I'm not sure I share Sarkozy's vision of security and having policemen at every corner of every street. Just imagine the demonstrations and the violence which will follow. I don't think he will make France a more secure place to live in at all.

[Monique]

Aron is right. France needs someone like Sarkozy, not a little fragile flower like Royal.

[tboparis]

Originally Posted by Monique 

Aron is right. France needs someone like Sarkozy, not a little fragile flower like Royal.

I'm not saying that Royal is the best solution, just a better one than Sarkozy.
And Royal is not as innocent as she let it seems and I wouldn't characterize her as a fragile flower.

[voodoo]

Originally Posted by Aron Peterson 

Nonsense. Sarkozy is an economist. The problem with France is that for many years they never had an economist leader. They had a string of uber-patriots and socialists who did nothing but sat around complaining about successful people, nations and companies that weren't French.

Sarkozy will try to change the mentality. That's why he has so many voting for him, because in France they see how well Anglo-American capitalism works and how the new Asian giants are rising up using the same economic model, and the French want to be part of that. They are fed up with jealousy and want to be successful and also want a realistic leadership who will do something about the ghettos.

Scary? No, he's just a Thatcherite for France. About time.

Under what rock did you crawl from?

The topic doesn't matter, whether it is software or politics all your posts are dumb as bread.

Thatcerite for France..? you are so dumb, I'd bitchslap you if you were within reach. Instead I'll watch you with pleasant amusement since you're fast approaching being the most retarded poster on 'NN. Now that Simey is gone anyway. Kevin does hold some reasonable views regarding software at least, so he isn't eligable for the title.

V

[Aron Peterson]

Originally Posted by tboparis 

And even more who are radically against him.
I'm not sure I share Sarkozy's vision of security and having policemen at every corner of every street. Just imagine the demonstrations and the violence which will follow. I don't think he will make France a more secure place to live in at all.

That's what the sociaists want you to believe so you won't vote for him. Ironically it is always socialist economies that put police on every corner.

Sarkozy's vision is of an expanded French economy so France can compete internationally. A police state is the last thing an economist wants.

[Aron Peterson]

Originally Posted by voodoo 

The topic doesn't matter, whether it is software or politics all your posts are dumb as bread.

Thatcerite for France..? you are so dumb, I'd bitchslap you if you were within reach.

V

Oops. Did I just complain about your post for being troll-like cowardly flaming misinformation?

Gibraltar,
Gibraltar,
No peace, no peace I find
Just this old, sweet song
Keeps Gibraltar on my mind

[red rocket]

Royal 4 President!

Let's just look at their respective views, shall we?

_________________________________
ECONOMY:

NICOLAS SARKOZY: Wants to make overtime pay tax-free to encourage people to work more.

SEGOLENE ROYAL: Wants to raise the monthly minimum wage.
_________________________________

to Royal.

Sarko -"Work more"?!? - WTF? Brilliant fucking idea, just what everybody wants to do.

_________________________________
EUROPEAN CONSTITUTION:

NICOLAS SARKOZY: Wants to postpone controversial issues in favour of adopting a simpler constitution by 2009, without another referendum.

SEGOLENE ROYAL: Wants to negotiate a new treaty and subject it to a referendum. Says the European Union should ensure Europeans across-the-board social protections.

_________________________________
Hear hear, social protections all across the EU. At least Royal has a policy.

_________________________________
35-HOUR WEEK:

NICOLAS SARKOZY: Says it's not creating jobs as intended but would not abolish it. Wants to relax rules to let people work more for more pay.

SEGOLENE ROYAL: Says it has had benefits and drawbacks. Wants talks to consolidate the 35-hour week and fix its problems.

_________________________________
Sarko wants to undermine the whole principle by "relaxing" the rules. ****tard.

_________________________________
RELATIONS WITH UNITED STATES:

NICOLAS SARKOZY: Embraces moniker "Sarko the American" and gladly shook hands with President Bush. Admires American "energy" and opportunity — but calls Iraq war a mistake.

SEGOLENE ROYAL: Calls the Iraq war a "catastrophe" but says she doesn't confuse the Bush administration and its policies with the United States as a whole.

_________________________________
If Sarko wants to be a fascist-loving American Slave, he should **** off and move to Texas, get away from all the "racaille" he so despises.

Pity the ****'s going to win, he's bound to get all the swing votes from the far right.

[voodoo]

Originally Posted by Aron Peterson 

Oops. Did I just complain about your post

No, you were just posting drivel again. If you are older than 15, then you have perhaps why other people laugh at you. If you are younger than 15, you probably haven't realized yet why they laugh at you.

Look, you don't know anything. About anything. Anglo-American capitalism in France??! Under Nicolas?? Eheheheaahaha!!!! Idiot.

Thatcher? Anti-Americansim? Your drivel continues.

You *are* the dumb, loud American.

V

[voodoo]

Originally Posted by Aron Peterson 

That's what the sociaists want you to believe so you won't vote for him. Ironically it is always socialist economies that put police on every corner.

Sarkozy's vision is of an expanded French economy so France can compete internationally. A police state is the last thing an economist wants.

Well they did a good thing in that dreamland of yours... the right wing made a police state of the US.

The French are very happy they don't live in America and in fact, no matter who gets elected France won't become a police state like the USA.

You know that guy who is president now? Jacques.

You know he his a right wing conservative.. then again, no you probably don't. So I'm telling you: France has been run by a right-wing conservative president the last decade.

And boy did he not like American stupidity. No, the socialists in the UK - they liked it. To think that Nicolas is any particular fan or friend of the chauvinistic anglosphere is naive and dumb. Right up your alley.

Nicolas Sarkozy is as much a fan of the anglosphere as I am, which is why I support him. He despises your arrogance too. Now go do the world a favor and go play in traffic.

V

[Taliesin]

Originally Posted by Mithras 

I think someone should just take this city and just... just flush it down the ****in' toilet.

Taxi, TAXI!

Taliesin

[Aron Peterson]

Well, I'll let the French have their say instead of bothering with two forum posters - one a Spaniard who doesn't give a **** about the feelings of Gibraltarians and thinks the US is a police state, and the other who hasn't bothered watching French people speaking on TV about how they want to work more hours and have a competitive freer economy. Sarkozy got 31% of the vote for many good reasons.

Actually those who complain about him remind me of when I was living in LA in 2003. There were people out and about handing leaflets saying not to vote for Schwarzenegger because he is a closet Nazi. They even had photos of him next photos of Hitler. A businessman/actor compared to a mass murderer. Fear inducing nonsense.

[tboparis]

Originally Posted by Aron Peterson 

That's what the sociaists want you to believe so you won't vote for him. Ironically it is always socialist economies that put police on every corner.

Sarkozy's vision is of an expanded French economy so France can compete internationally. A police state is the last thing an economist wants.

Well I'm going to stick to the ideas that the socialists have given me even though I can recall having gathered them from Sarkozy's talking about his desire to "karcherise" all of France.

You might also want to know that Sarkozy would have lost to Bayrou but this one didn't make it because people who were voting AGAINST Sarkozy (and there are much more than you think) didn't know who to choose from Segolene or Bayrou.

Also I wouldn't compare Sarkozy to Hitler... maybe Mussolini.

And BTW maybe Sarkozy is not all the great economist that you think he is.

[Aron Peterson]

Originally Posted by tboparis 

You might also want to know that Sarkozy would have lost to Bayrou but this one didn't make it because people who were voting AGAINST Sarkozy (and there are much more than you think) didn't know who to choose from Segolene or Bayrou.

You might want to note that the founder of the UDF gave his support to Sarkozy even though the current president of the UDF is Bayrou.

[tboparis]

Originally Posted by Aron Peterson 

You might want to note that the founder of the UDF gave his support to Sarkozy even though the current president of the UDF is Bayrou.

My point is that a large amount of Bayrou's voters are people against Sarkozy but who don't support some of Royal's delusional ideas and those from the right wing that don't approve Sarkozy. Bayrou may have given his support to Sarkozy but has also criticized the latter several times.

[kilechki]

Originally Posted by Aron Peterson 

That's what the sociaists want you to believe so you won't vote for him. Ironically it is always socialist economies that put police on every corner.

Sarkozy's vision is of an expanded French economy so France can compete internationally. A police state is the last thing an economist wants.

Try again.

Sarkozy has studied law but then hardly ever worked as a lawyer, having spent most of his life in the trail of 2 political frenchmen, jacques chirac and edouard balladur.

As a minister of economy in 2004, he has been the most interventionnist minister in the past last 3 decades, most notably blocking the Aventis Company fusion with a non-french counterpart.
Oh, and most privatisations of french companies have been decided by a "socialist" government between 1997 and 2002. Which is also the period french firms have been among the most competitive in the world.

Does an interventionnist, former disciple of an opportunist Chirac, only preoccupied by the number of cops in the street really qualify as Tchacherite to you?

[TheMosco]

Originally Posted by voodoo 

Well they did a good thing in that dreamland of yours... the right wing made a police state of the US.

The French are very happy they don't live in America and in fact, no matter who gets elected France won't become a police state like the USA.

V

Lets step back a little bit. Sure, the in the last couple years, some laws have been passed that aren't exactly highlights of freedom, some are downright wrong, but the US is not a police state.

I have been in the UK for 7 weeks, I feel like I am being watching everywhere I go, even in the bathroom. Its freaky here. I have a zone 1-2 tube pass. They know everytime you enter and exit the subway. They know your whole trip. They get you on the busses too.

From wikipedia:

The exact number of CCTV cameras in the UK is not known but a 2002 working paper by Michael McCahill and Clive Norris of UrbanEye[1], based on a small sample in Putney High Street, "guesstimated" the number of surveillance cameras in private premises in London is around 400,000 and the total number of cameras in the UK is around 4,000,000. The UK has one camera for every 14 people.

And that was in 2002. I wonder how many they have now...

[villalobos]

Originally Posted by Aron Peterson 

You might want to note that the founder of the UDF gave his support to Sarkozy even though the current president of the UDF is Bayrou.

The UDF eh? Who cares about that really. People voted for Bayrou, not for the UDF.

[Aron Peterson]

Originally Posted by TheMosco 

I have been in the UK for 7 weeks, I feel like I am being watching everywhere I go, even in the bathroom. Its freaky here. I have a zone 1-2 tube pass. They know everytime you enter and exit the subway. They know your whole trip. They get you on the busses too.

I've been in the security control rooms at Hammersmith Shopping Centre, Selfridges, and Marlybone Police Station. I've also been on the computers at New Scotland Yard (slowest computers I ever used and lots of jolly old men talking about football).

There's nothing sinister going on there. Just regular guys like everyone else who respond to crime. One shouldn't take Hollywood action movies, Orwell, Nazis, the Soviet Union and Cold War paranoia and impose all that stuff on very conscionable people doing what is a security job. When your wallet gets stolen it's those guys who have to go through tapes looking for what happened for you. When a store gets robbed or looted by a gang of youths they're the ones who get evidence for a business owner.

It's not scary stuff there at all. They're mostly looking at their sandwiches or reading The Sun. You're even allowed to knock and enter if you're a victim of crime and need help.

Brits and Americans wouldn't tolerate a police state under any circumstances because it's what they have fought against for a long time. Few individuals and small groups might always abuse the system, but that concern is offset by the fact that we always seem to expose corruption sooner or later.

[Aron Peterson]

Originally Posted by kilechki 

Does an interventionnist, former disciple of an opportunist Chirac, only preoccupied by the number of cops in the street really qualify as Tchacherite to you?

Thatcher.

Yes, he is close in ways, more so than any French politician before. And he's molded himself in the image of a French Tony Blair (quote "Tough on crime. Tough on the causes of crime"). I'm not saying that's a great thing but many French admit they need a leader with balls and one who will break the cycle of bad habits in French politics. That's what got him the votes.

French production industry is also very fearful of losing jobs to China. It's been happening already. Italians are angry about it too. For example, Italians pride themselves about their tomato industry. Now cheaper Chinese tomatoes are making their way on to Italian supermarket shelves. The French are also experiencing this. Some nations can accomodate Chinese products, some can't.

With that in mind, French factory owners and workers have seen that they only way they can compete is by working longer hours for the same pay they have been working for, instead of lower hours and rising pay like Royal wants. Normally the trend in a strong economy is for the hours to stay the same and pay will rise with inflation. France's economy can't afford it yet Royal and her party just can't get that through to their heads. French workers have said they are willing to sacrifice a rise in pay in favor of working more hours per week because that will mean companies will have more output, increasing competitiveness and creating job security as well as a higher weekly salary.