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Brexit? (Page 6)
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turtle777
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Jul 2, 2016, 02:10 PM
 
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
Or maybe the market is feeling like the Brexit will never actually happen. A lot of people seem to be feeling this way at the moment. .
Anybody thinking this is in denial.

What didn't get reported in most mainstream media is WHY Boris Johnson dropped out.

A very British betrayal – POLITICO

This shows that the Brexit camp is now running the Tories.

-t
     
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Jul 2, 2016, 06:24 PM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
Anybody thinking this is in denial.

What didn't get reported in most mainstream media is WHY Boris Johnson dropped out.

A very British betrayal – POLITICO

This shows that the Brexit camp is now running the Tories.

-t
That doesn't follow from that piece. What it says is that GOVE won't compromise the way Johnson might have, which is probably correct, but it also makes it clear that May is now the front-runner. May was Remain, although not particularly ardently - a compromise is probably exactly what she wants (wether she says so now or not).
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Waragainstsleep
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Jul 2, 2016, 06:42 PM
 
johnson wrote a column basically indicating that he would pursue a deal almost indistinguishable from membership. Gove has Murdoch in his corner now.
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turtle777
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Jul 2, 2016, 07:43 PM
 
Originally Posted by P View Post
That doesn't follow from that piece. What it says is that GOVE won't compromise the way Johnson might have, which is probably correct, but it also makes it clear that May is now the front-runner. May was Remain, although not particularly ardently - a compromise is probably exactly what she wants (wether she says so now or not).
May came out after the Brexit vote and said she is going to support the result, and not go against the wish of the majority..

Johnson was more open to "ignoring" the Brexit vote than May seems to be.

-t
     
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Jul 3, 2016, 02:48 AM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
Anybody thinking this is in denial.

What didn't get reported in most mainstream media is WHY Boris Johnson dropped out.
Well, it was covered in the media I read, the story broke a day or two after Johnson dropped out. However, I think Johnson's loss of support amongst the Tories was not just due to backstabbing and political maneuvering, but also his meandering and lack of a clear plan for a Brexit contributed.
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Jul 3, 2016, 06:22 AM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
May came out after the Brexit vote and said she is going to support the result, and not go against the wish of the majority..

Johnson was more open to "ignoring" the Brexit vote than May seems to be.

-t
Every politician who has commented on that either way has said the result 'must be respected' or similar. Its far too soon to dismiss it, they'd never get away with it yet. Give it time, people are going on holiday where things will cost more than usual, maybe the markets will dip again after the Tory leader votes. There is already one poll indicated that public opinion has swung the other way. Its not a big enough swing to act on yet but that could change.

On the other hand they might actually require a parliamentary vote in order to invoke a50 and its possible the public could misconstrue that as an attempt to overturn the referendum, even if it passes. There is still an enormous amount of uncertainty and caginess at every turn. Its a minefield for politicians at the moment.
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Jul 3, 2016, 10:21 AM
 
I feel like people treating a vote which squeaked by like a vote which squeaked by, as opposed to a mandate, is something we want to encourage, no?
     
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Jul 3, 2016, 10:31 AM
 
I do.

Not only that, but it squeaked by based on nothing but lies and still needed an ignorant protest vote to get it over the line.
People aren't used to voting for things that aren't general elections.

The fact that almost every politician who claimed to be in favour has either admitted lying, jumped ship, run away or torpedoed themselves should speak volumes.

Maybe its denial or maybe its blind optimism but I feel like there is a number of elements happy to buy time in the hopes of being granted a license to undo the decision. Holidayers will feel the pinch over the next couple of months, by then the price of food will have begun to rise and people will actually be affected. Opinions will be shaped by consequences instead of empty promises and then we'll see how they feel.
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Jul 3, 2016, 10:50 AM
 
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
I do.
By calling everyone who's doing it a liar?

I'd hate to see how you discourage something.
     
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Jul 3, 2016, 01:30 PM
 
What I'm seeing is the far-Left in panic mode, claiming "everyone was lying", "everyone is racist", "your neighbor is a fascist", all because they became complacent and thought Brexit would never pass. As for the jumping ship thing, you mean the people interviewed who claimed to be pro-Leave but it turns out they voted Remain? How embarrassing.

Time to shake off the butthurt and get over it. Maybe you can reapply for membership if the EU ever gets its shit together and stops trying to take over the hemisphere.
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Jul 3, 2016, 03:56 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
By calling everyone who's doing it a liar?

I'd hate to see how you discourage something.
The remainers are treating it like a narrow vote that shouldn't qualify as mandate. The leavers are treating it as an unassailable democratic victory.

Its clear there was a lot wrong with both campaigns and many of the voters. I'm not really sure what you're trying to get at though.
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Jul 3, 2016, 04:03 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
As for the jumping ship thing, you mean the people interviewed who claimed to be pro-Leave but it turns out they voted Remain? How embarrassing.
No I mean Cameron quit, Johnson quit (having never really been pro-leave), May claimed to be pro remain but was probably pro-leave, same with Corbyn.

We're left not knowing where anyone ever really stood except Farage, Gove (both of who perpetuated massive lies) and Nicola Sturgeon.

I'm not aware of anyone who claimed to be pro-leave but voted the other way except maybe Bojo.
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turtle777
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Jul 3, 2016, 07:05 PM
 
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
I do.

Not only that, but it squeaked by based on nothing but lies and still needed an ignorant protest vote to get it over the line.
Are you fu$&ing kidding me ?

As if the remain propaganda and fearmongering was NOT lying.

Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
People aren't used to voting for things that aren't general elections.
Translation: Brits are to dumb to exercise democracy.

Might as well have Brussels make ALL decisions.

-t
     
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Jul 3, 2016, 07:34 PM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
Are you fu$&ing kidding me ?

As if the remain propaganda and fearmongering was NOT lying.
People keep trying to make out that both sides were equally deceptive. Its simply not the case. Osborne's emergency budget was daft, one or two other claims were a little out there as well but a lot of what was dismissed as fear mongering turned out to be true. Markets dropped, racist incidents rose, plenty more predictions can still come good too. Meanwhile every major claim of the leave campaign has been reneged on by their own people. Immigration won't decrease, £350m per week to the NHS was BS, keeping all the benefits of EU membership without agreeing to freedom of movement. And those cover the main reasons why people voted leave. This was not a case of two equally dishonest campaigns. One was entirely dishonest, the other one was mostly just inept.


Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
Translation: Brits are to dumb to exercise democracy.

Might as well have Brussels make ALL decisions.

-t
This from a country that continuously prospers and improves under democrat leaders but still elects Republicans no matter how dumb they get.

When was the last time America held a nationwide referendum out of interest?
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Jul 3, 2016, 08:13 PM
 
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
When was the last time America held a nationwide referendum out of interest?
Referendums that are legally binding happen at the state level. The federal level doesn't have a mechanism for referendums with teeth. That said, I'm not recalling any national referendums. Pity, we could use several.
     
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Jul 3, 2016, 08:46 PM
 
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
The remainers are treating it like a narrow vote that shouldn't qualify as mandate. The leavers are treating it as an unassailable democratic victory.

Its clear there was a lot wrong with both campaigns and many of the voters. I'm not really sure what you're trying to get at though.
Wait a second... Johnson wants to negotiate a contract almost indistinguishable from the original. The Leave representative in the video clip from above flat-out said Leave needed to respect the closeness of the vote. This is how the Leavers pursue an unassailable democratic victory?

While on the other hand, daring them to follow through with it and calling them racist, chicken shit liars is how Remain acknowledges their loss?

But Remain is willing to compromise, and Leave won't budge?

     
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Jul 3, 2016, 10:18 PM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
Are you fu$&ing kidding me ?

As if the remain propaganda and fearmongering was NOT lying.
You're creating false equivalencies.
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Wait a second... Johnson wants to negotiate a contract almost indistinguishable from the original.
You are misattributing Johnson's motivations and forgetting about the political environment: right now a Brexit does not have a majority in Parliament (even if you just look at the Tories). So if Johnson wanted to become Prime Minister (I know that this has become a hypothetical), he needs broad support amongst MPs. Johnson's more moderate tones were meant to appeal towards the Remain camp in the Tory party.

Secondly, the referendum is non-binding, and any British government has to ask Parliament to invoke Article 50. Moreover, nobody has a plan yet what a partnership with the EU is supposed to look like. So you could satisfy the Remain camp by essentially not changing anything in practice (i. e. leaving the EU but remaining in the EEC).

And lastly, don't forget that a Brexit is a huge undertaking: certain industries (e. g. finance and data-related) would be obligated to leave London if the agreements aren't hammered out in time (which is really, really unlikely, the free trade agreement between the EU and South Korea took 9 years to negotiate). Those industries are extremely important to the British economy, and screwing things up could have disastrous consequences for Britain.
Originally Posted by subego View Post
The Leave representative in the video clip from above flat-out said Leave needed to respect the closeness of the vote. This is how the Leavers pursue an unassailable democratic victory?
Those are just platitudes. Don't listen to what politicians say, look at what they do. So far Britains response to the vote was just to buy themselves some time: they don't want to invoke Article 50 because (1) they don't know what their negotiating position is and (2) their own parliament is not in favor of it.
Originally Posted by subego View Post
While on the other hand, daring them to follow through with it and calling them racist, chicken shit liars is how Remain acknowledges their loss?
Racist incidents have spiked after to the vote to for a Brexit. But I think it'd be smart to look beyond that nonetheless, to look at the weaknesses in the EU on the one side and for Britain to figure out what the hell she wants on the other.
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Jul 3, 2016, 10:22 PM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
Referendums that are legally binding happen at the state level. The federal level doesn't have a mechanism for referendums with teeth. That said, I'm not recalling any national referendums. Pity, we could use several.
As far as I understand the Founding Fathers were extremely critical of referendums, they saw it as a form of mob rule. Personally, I think referendums are sometimes a good tool, but one that should be used sparingly and precisely. Referendums should be constructive, i. e. for specific laws and actions, and not destructive as in case of the Brexit referendum (in the sense that a No to the EU doesn't inform the British government what to do).
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subego
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Jul 3, 2016, 11:14 PM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
You're creating false equivalencies.

You are misattributing Johnson's motivations and forgetting about the political environment: right now a Brexit does not have a majority in Parliament (even if you just look at the Tories). So if Johnson wanted to become Prime Minister (I know that this has become a hypothetical), he needs broad support amongst MPs. Johnson's more moderate tones were meant to appeal towards the Remain camp in the Tory party.

Secondly, the referendum is non-binding, and any British government has to ask Parliament to invoke Article 50. Moreover, nobody has a plan yet what a partnership with the EU is supposed to look like. So you could satisfy the Remain camp by essentially not changing anything in practice (i. e. leaving the EU but remaining in the EEC).

And lastly, don't forget that a Brexit is a huge undertaking: certain industries (e. g. finance and data-related) would be obligated to leave London if the agreements aren't hammered out in time (which is really, really unlikely, the free trade agreement between the EU and South Korea took 9 years to negotiate). Those industries are extremely important to the British economy, and screwing things up could have disastrous consequences for Britain.

Those are just platitudes. Don't listen to what politicians say, look at what they do. So far Britains response to the vote was just to buy themselves some time: they don't want to invoke Article 50 because (1) they don't know what their negotiating position is and (2) their own parliament is not in favor of it.

Racist incidents have spiked after to the vote to for a Brexit. But I think it'd be smart to look beyond that nonetheless, to look at the weaknesses in the EU on the one side and for Britain to figure out what the hell she wants on the other.
I wasn't discussing Johnson's motivations, and honestly don't see how they're relevant. What's relevant is the position he's taking, which appears to be very much on the "exit-lite" end of the spectrum.

This doesn't fit the claim he's acting like he has a mandate, which was the accusation levied at him.
     
turtle777
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Jul 3, 2016, 11:46 PM
 
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
This from a country that continuously prospers and improves under democrat leaders but still elects Republicans no matter how dumb they get.
Muahahahaha

Is that what they tell you in the UK ?

Maybe you deserve Europe after all. I mean, you PERSONALLY.

-t
     
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Jul 3, 2016, 11:53 PM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
Maybe you deserve Europe after all.
Reported.
     
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Jul 4, 2016, 12:35 AM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
I wasn't discussing Johnson's motivations, and honestly don't see how they're relevant. What's relevant is the position he's taking, which appears to be very much on the "exit-lite" end of the spectrum.
Implicitly you ascribed motivations to his claims, too, i. e. that his “Brexit lite” is also due to him being mindful about the 48 % who voted for Remain. His motivations do matter because they determine what kind of Brexit he will push for. Johnson is out of the race for PM, though, so at least when it comes to Johnsons this discussion has become academic. However, similar arguments apply to all Tory candidates for PM. May, for instance, was in the Remain camp, but looks as if she is the front runner. Gove was in the Leave camp. Primarily, they are competing for votes from within the Tory party (which was in favor of Remain).
Originally Posted by subego View Post
This doesn't fit the claim he's acting like he has a mandate, which was the accusation levied at him.
Morally, I believe British politicians do have a mandate to honor the outcome of the referendum. Politicians pushed for a referendum, and now they have to deal with the outcome. I haven't heard that as a point of criticism towards Johnson, though, especially since he was waffling when it came to saying how to implement Brexit.
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turtle777
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Jul 4, 2016, 02:24 AM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Reported.
Finally. I haven't had an infraction in ages.

This place has gone soft hard

-t
     
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Jul 4, 2016, 06:45 AM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Wait a second... Johnson wants to negotiate a contract almost indistinguishable from the original. The Leave representative in the video clip from above flat-out said Leave needed to respect the closeness of the vote. This is how the Leavers pursue an unassailable democratic victory?

While on the other hand, daring them to follow through with it and calling them racist, chicken shit liars is how Remain acknowledges their loss?

But Remain is willing to compromise, and Leave won't budge?

I think we're crossing wires a little between the people and politicians.

Personally I choose to distinguish between the comments politicians make when they talk about respect, and the comments they make regarding plans or intent.

I don't think anyone on the remain side is daring them to follow through or calling them chicken. We want them to have regret and change their minds. We are calling them liars, because thats what their whole campaign was, lies. And with the vote so close, its hard to imagine that between people sucked in by the lies and the protest voters that the result would have easily shifted in our favour had they not made up their claims and succeeded in telling people to ignore all of ours.

I don't even know what you mean. The leavers don't have to pursue victory. They won the vote albeit by nefarious means.

As for compromise, unless you consider a second referendum a compromise, I don't see there is one to be had. Its in or out. Remainers think out is a bad thing.

I will say I think remainers care far more about this issue than most leavers. The petition to block a second referendum has only mustered 5000 votes in four days. The petition for another vote was well into the millions by that point.

As for the accusations of racism, thats little more than a pre-emptive retaliatory strike. I'm the only one I've seen making anything like that sort of claim anyway, but racism is a big, big driver of this vote no matter what anyone says.
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Jul 4, 2016, 07:52 AM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
What I'm seeing is the far-Left in panic mode, claiming "everyone was lying", "everyone is racist", "your neighbor is a fascist", all because they became complacent and thought Brexit would never pass. As for the jumping ship thing, you mean the people interviewed who claimed to be pro-Leave but it turns out they voted Remain? How embarrassing.
Cameron is far-Left now? And somehow to the left of Corbyn?

You really have to update your information about right-left on this issue. The extremes on both sides all want out - it is the people in the center of political spectrum that generally want to stay in.
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Jul 4, 2016, 08:13 AM
 
Now Farage is out as well, it seems.
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Jul 4, 2016, 09:15 AM
 
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
I don't think anyone on the remain side is daring them to follow through or calling them chicken. We want them to have regret and change their minds. We are calling them liars, because thats what their whole campaign was, lies.
I think the other aspect here is that the government still needs to negotiate what a Brexit should look like, and the public pressuring politicians to stay close to the EU even if the UK is no longer a member. The potential solutions range from leaving the EU but retaining a full EEA membership (which would enrage many hardcore Brexit supporters as the UK would still be forced to pay, accept many EU regulations, and agree to free movement of people and goods) to a complete exit where the relationship between the UK and the EU starts with a clean sheet.
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
As for compromise, unless you consider a second referendum a compromise, I don't see there is one to be had. Its in or out. Remainers think out is a bad thing.
The situation is very tough, especially since support for Remain and Leave do not break down neatly across party lines (apart from UKIP). So even new parliamentary elections would not necessarily clear up the situation. Having a second referendum right away doesn't sit right with me, though. Personally, a compromise could be a referendum which asks whether the public supports a specific Leave plan (which IMHO was the biggest flaw of the referendum).
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Jul 4, 2016, 10:32 AM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
The situation is very tough, especially since support for Remain and Leave do not break down neatly across party lines (apart from UKIP). So even new parliamentary elections would not necessarily clear up the situation. Having a second referendum right away doesn't sit right with me, though. Personally, a compromise could be a referendum which asks whether the public supports a specific Leave plan (which IMHO was the biggest flaw of the referendum).
A parliamentary election could solve the situation if someone decides to say "vote for my party and we will stay in the EU" and wins, or, conversely, "vote for my party and we will leave now, blank slate" and wins. Problem is that nobody dares to say that, because both major parties stand to lose significant votes on the fringes if they say "we stay in no matter what", and lose even more in the center if they say "we leave".

Also the tories apparently won't call a new election until 2020 anyway.

I guess I'd be OK with a parliamentary election solving the issue that way, either way, but I don't want a new referendum with the same question. That looks for too much like a do-over because you voted wrong. A parliamentary election can be about presenting alternatives about how you want to move forward, which is a more informed election that one where one of the sides can't even agree on what they meant.
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Jul 4, 2016, 12:24 PM
 
Originally Posted by P View Post
Cameron is far-Left now? And somehow to the left of Corbyn?
They aren't the only ones crying, are they? As for the "extremes wanting out", Laurie Penny and the rest of the rad-Fems over there would sell their useless wombs to stay in, and they're conformed Marxists.
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Jul 4, 2016, 12:41 PM
 
I mean that Corbyn is pretty clearly Leave by his actions, and if your reasoning that it is the far-Left that wants to stay, that must mean that Cameron and half the Tory party are to the left of a guy who is described by his own party as being too far left to ever win an election.

Stop making this into a left-right thing. It isn't. If it had been this would have been easy. The elderly, the uneducated and the extremists want out.
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Jul 4, 2016, 02:07 PM
 
Corbyn is far left for sure but maybe he is an outlier wanting to leave.

I agree the idea of a second referendum doesn't sit entirely right, but on the other hand, I don't have a problem with the concept of a do-over. Going ahead with a bad idea because you're too proud to correct your mistake is insanity when it comes to the well-being of a nation.

It had struck me that asking the question again with a more specific plan might be an acceptable way out of the current predicament. Thats really what we should have had in the first place.
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Jul 4, 2016, 02:10 PM
 
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
I don't even know what you mean. The leavers don't have to pursue victory. They won the vote albeit by nefarious means.

As for compromise, unless you consider a second referendum a compromise, I don't see there is one to be had. Its in or out. Remainers think out is a bad thing.
That the vote called for a divorce can't be compromised. What's open to compromise is how friendly the divorce is.
     
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Jul 4, 2016, 02:20 PM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
Implicitly you ascribed motivations to his claims, too, i. e. that his “Brexit lite” is also due to him being mindful about the 48 % who voted for Remain.
If I was ascribing mindfulness, it was of the self-serving, political variety. As in, he assumed he'd end up as roadkill if he didn't.
     
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Jul 4, 2016, 02:25 PM
 
Originally Posted by P View Post
I mean that Corbyn is pretty clearly Leave by his actions, and if your reasoning that it is the far-Left that wants to stay, that must mean that Cameron and half the Tory party are to the left of a guy who is described by his own party as being too far left to ever win an election.

Stop making this into a left-right thing. It isn't. If it had been this would have been easy. The elderly, the uneducated and the extremists want out.
It's much more along left-right lines than you want to admit. The Marxists want to stay, clearly. Corbyn is a moderate, at least by UK standards, and Cameron simply does what he's told. It essentially comes down to those who can think for themselves (Leave) and those who can't (Stay).
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Jul 4, 2016, 02:31 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
That the vote called for a divorce can't be compromised.
If it is, democracy in the UK is well and truly ****ed. Stick a fork in it, from that moment on the citizens will know that their votes no longer matter and they're being corralled towards a unification that will ultimately lead to the death of individual liberties. Much like the way China still votes, but only in a symbolic manner, so with the UK follow.
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Jul 4, 2016, 04:32 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
It's much more along left-right lines than you want to admit. The Marxists want to stay, clearly. Corbyn is a moderate, at least by UK standards, and Cameron simply does what he's told. It essentially comes down to those who can think for themselves (Leave) and those who can't (Stay).
Corbyn is not a moderate by UK standards.

Only you could assert that the educated half of society are the ones not thinking for themselves. The leavers took the easy way out and believed everything they were spoon fed by the side that validated their racist tendencies. Exactly the trick that Trump has been using.
Literally all the evidence shows that the people who really thought things through voted to remain. The UK isn't built to take advantage of being outside the EU. I'm sure it could thrive, but it is currently unprepared to do so.

You really do live in your own awful little world don't you?
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Jul 4, 2016, 06:32 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
It's much more along left-right lines than you want to admit. The Marxists want to stay, clearly. Corbyn is a moderate, at least by UK standards, and Cameron simply does what he's told. It essentially comes down to those who can think for themselves (Leave) and those who can't (Stay).
Corbyn is nowhere near a moderate, which is why he is currently facing a rebellion from the center - he is seen as too far left to ever win an election.

My background to saying that it is the extremists that want out is that this is the case in just about all European countries for which I follow politics at all. Here in Sweden the only serious party truly opposed to the EU - a position they've had since forever - is the former communist party. The social democrats were against for a long time, and their current coalition partners, the greens, were against for even longer. There are countries where there is no organized opposition to the EU on the left, but those are the countries where support for the EU is very strong across the board.

My friends and colleagues from the UK are quite clear that their situation is very similar - the old leftists want out, the UKIPers and right-wing Tories want out, everyone else wants to stay in. Go read some exit polls if you don't believe me - or look at a map and compare to the last parliamentary elections. The red Labour districts in northern England and Wales were strongholds for Leave.
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Jul 4, 2016, 08:34 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
It's much more along left-right lines than you want to admit. The Marxists want to stay, clearly. [...] It essentially comes down to those who can think for themselves (Leave) and those who can't (Stay).
Your position is not supported by data. P gave a good summary already, outside of London a majority for Leave correlates strongly with living in a traditional Labor stronghold. Euro skeptics from the right and the left want out for different reasons: In countries such as Spain or Greece, the left-leaning parties are Euro skeptic because they are against austerity policies that Germany has pushed. In England and Wales the Leave voters from the left have not benefitted from globalization.

On the other hand you have right-wing governments in, say, England, Hungary and Poland that want to close their borders to immigrants. However, the business-friendly wings of the right-leaning parties want to stay in the EU, because leaving the EU would significantly impact their ability to trade products with other EU member states.
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
Corbyn is a moderate, at least by UK standards, and Cameron simply does what he's told.
No, Corbyn is way too the left of the elected Labor MP. He is in the precarious situation that he has clear support of Labor members (who elected him and would re-elect him right now) but no support of the MPs.
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Jul 4, 2016, 10:08 PM
 
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Jul 5, 2016, 12:49 AM
 
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
You really do live in your own awful little world don't you?
It isn't nearly as proletariat as your own, I assure you. The college-age Millennial sheep are by far the worst. "Educated" doesn't equal intelligence, especially not when most of their degrees aren't worth the parchment they're printed on. We have a generation of social science majors coming out of college that, at the very least, won't be able to pay their student loans, and at the worst won't be able to pay their bills. They graduate (or quit), move back in with their parents, and tread water. Those are the people that make up the largest demographic of Remainers. If it weren't for their families, many of them would be in gov't housing and on assistance. See those unemployment rates for 18-29 year-olds across Europe? That's your future if you stay in the EU.
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Jul 5, 2016, 01:08 AM
 
Originally Posted by P View Post
Corbyn is nowhere near a moderate, which is why he is currently facing a rebellion from the center - he is seen as too far left to ever win an election.

My background to saying that it is the extremists that want out is that this is the case in just about all European countries for which I follow politics at all. Here in Sweden the only serious party truly opposed to the EU - a position they've had since forever - is the former communist party. The social democrats were against for a long time, and their current coalition partners, the greens, were against for even longer. There are countries where there is no organized opposition to the EU on the left, but those are the countries where support for the EU is very strong across the board.

My friends and colleagues from the UK are quite clear that their situation is very similar - the old leftists want out, the UKIPers and right-wing Tories want out, everyone else wants to stay in. Go read some exit polls if you don't believe me - or look at a map and compare to the last parliamentary elections. The red Labour districts in northern England and Wales were strongholds for Leave.
A few Leftists (not the young Marxists), the vast majority of those on the Right, and about an equal portion of moderates. That was the Leave crowd.

One has to remember, however, a supermajority of people in England and Wales wanted to Leave. If it weren't for Scotland and N Ireland, it would have been a landslide and a resounding pro-Brexit mandate.
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Jul 5, 2016, 01:26 AM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
A few Leftists (not the young Marxists), the vast majority of those on the Right, and about an equal portion of moderates. That was the Leave crowd.
That's not supported by the data.
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
One has to remember, however, a supermajority of people in England and Wales wanted to Leave. If it weren't for Scotland and N Ireland, it would have been a landslide and a resounding pro-Brexit mandate.
No, it wouldn't have won in a landslide in England and Wales: if you look at those two separately the split there was 47 : 53, so the difference is a mere percentage point (48 : 52 if averaged over all of the UK). That's hardly a landslide.



I think you're underestimating the votes that come from the larger London area which is geographically small but very populous compared to other regions where it is the other way around. The Guardian has a map which is adjusted for population, and as you can see London counter balances areas where you had up to 70 % of the population voting for Leave.
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Jul 5, 2016, 01:33 AM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
That's not supported by the data.
I'd like to see it, I can't find how data on how the vote split by ideology or even party.

No, it wouldn't have won in a landslide in England and Wales: if you look at those two separately the split there was 47 : 53, so the difference is a mere percentage point (48 : 52 if averaged over all of the UK). That's hardly a landslide.
You're right, I was incorrect, the source said if you exclude Scotland, N Ireland, and London. But then, of course it would, those are by far the most Left-leaning regions in the UK.
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Jul 5, 2016, 01:59 AM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
I'd like to see it, I can't find how data on how the vote split by ideology or even party.
Compare the maps I quoted in my previous post to these two:


You can find a map adjusted for population here. I recommend the two linked maps because they are interactive (hence, I can't just post them as an image here). You see that areas in the North which are pretty red (Labor) coincide with the districts that have voted most strongly for a Brexit (e. g. the area around Hull which are Labor and voted 60-70 % for Leave). Conversely, you have conservative areas in the South (e. g. around Bristol) that have voted for Remain. Brexit is not a left vs. right issue, different parts of the population voted for Leave for different reasons.
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
You're right, I was incorrect, the source said if you exclude Scotland, N Ireland, and London. But then, of course it would, those are by far the most Left-leaning regions in the UK.
Sure, if London were to secede, the greater London area would have voted in favor of Remain and the headless rump of England plus Wales would have left. But that's like saying that Trump would handily win the Presidency if you ignored California and the East Coast states in the North. The divide is not left vs. right or so, but rather between regions that have benefitted on average (e. g. the greater London area) and those that have not (e. g. Northern England). That's why people with higher education tended to have voted for Remain — on average they are benefitting from the EU more than people with lower education.
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Jul 5, 2016, 04:46 AM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
It isn't nearly as proletariat as your own, I assure you. The college-age Millennial sheep are by far the worst. "Educated" doesn't equal intelligence, especially not when most of their degrees aren't worth the parchment they're printed on. We have a generation of social science majors coming out of college that, at the very least, won't be able to pay their student loans, and at the worst won't be able to pay their bills. They graduate (or quit), move back in with their parents, and tread water. Those are the people that make up the largest demographic of Remainers. If it weren't for their families, many of them would be in gov't housing and on assistance. See those unemployment rates for 18-29 year-olds across Europe? That's your future if you stay in the EU.

Earnings don't indicate intelligence. They never really did but thats something that has skewed even further from true in recent decades.

Our unemployable graduates are down to Tony Blair's policy that everyone should have a degree. Nothing to do with the EU. You seem to have a bunch of them in the US too, are they the EU's fault?

Your cosy little idea that the EU is breeding mindless zombies to support itself is just another example of your greed inspired paranoia. Given greed is your motivation, you will never understand anyone for whom it isn't.
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Jul 5, 2016, 02:29 PM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
Compare the maps I quoted in my previous post to these two:
That's an overall breakdown of the country by political party, not an actual Brexit poll. Correlation is not causation.
( Last edited by Cap'n Tightpants; Jul 5, 2016 at 03:14 PM. )
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Jul 5, 2016, 03:12 PM
 
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
Earnings don't indicate intelligence. They never really did but thats something that has skewed even further from true in recent decades.

Our unemployable graduates are down to Tony Blair's policy that everyone should have a degree. Nothing to do with the EU. You seem to have a bunch of them in the US too, are they the EU's fault?
https://pumpkinperson.com/2014/11/09...e-correlation/

... and while correlation isn't causation, it's also absurd to ignore facts that are staring you in the face. While the wealthiest people in the world frequently aren't at the very top of the IQ "pile", with very few exceptions they're all well above average. There are very few extremely intelligent polymaths, because those types of people seem to intensely focus on one or two specific subjects, and building large amounts of wealth, more often than not, requires diversity in disciplines. On the other side of the coin, however, the poorest in society are consistently at the bottom of the intellectual heap, even in situations where free education is plentiful, like in the First World.

Our meager unemployment rate for young adults isn't even remotely comparable to the EU's. Your unemployable grads are from their choice of degrees, not that they have one.

Your cosy little idea that the EU is breeding mindless zombies to support itself is just another example of your greed inspired paranoia. Given greed is your motivation, you will never understand anyone for whom it isn't.
Greed? After all this time you still don't know a single thing about me. Given that I donate ~80% of my net income to charity, real charities like the American Red Cross, St Jude's, Doctors w/o Borders, shelters, orphanages, etc., I can unequivocally say you're full of crap. Yes, your Marxist, college-aged youth are zombies, collectivists of the worst order, and entirely unable to fend for themselves, to the point where even the mere thought of not having the parental EU around strikes terror in their hearts. That's really all the post-Brexit nonsense from the Left has been, fear. Fear due to a belief that, without the European elites, the UK will shrivel and die.

Pre-Brexit, the Leave camp used fear.
Post-Brexit, the Remain camp are using it now.
Shows you how the sheep get spooked, back and forth, from one side of the pen to the other, doesn't it?
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Jul 5, 2016, 03:33 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
That's an overall breakdown of the country by political party, not an actual Brexit poll. Correlation is not causation.
True, but correlation does imply correlation. What you said was that the left wanted to Remain while the right wanted to Leave - i.e. that your position on the left-right scale correlates with your opinion on whether the UK should remain in the EU. Oreo just posted two maps that show that those two things do not correlate - significant areas that voted Labour (left) also voted Leave.
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Jul 5, 2016, 04:06 PM
 
Meh, I was listening to everyone's tinfoil hat radio host today. (Getting his take on the Clinton email punt). Jones claims the FBI punt is giving the "elites" the green light to slow the "Brexit" to a crawl while they form the "euro superstate" and make the Brexit a moot point.
     
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Jul 5, 2016, 07:51 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
That's an overall breakdown of the country by political party, not an actual Brexit poll. Correlation is not causation.
Yes, but you literally asked whether there exists a positive correlation between districts being Labor and whether that district voted for Leave. Some of the districts with the highest percentages for Leave are Labor districts, so your claim that voting for Leave correlates more strongly with being a conservative is false.
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