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Any Sane Functioning Adult 2020: The Democratic Primary (Page 2)
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Laminar
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Mar 4, 2020, 04:20 PM
 
Verified Snappy™.
     
subego
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Mar 8, 2020, 02:14 PM
 
     
Thorzdad
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Mar 8, 2020, 03:01 PM
 
Liz does a really good Kate there.
[set curmudgeon_mode=1]
     
turtle777
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Mar 8, 2020, 03:32 PM
 
Confused Biden Calls Himself "Obiden Bama Democrat”.

https://t.co/TE18cVYjKb



-t
     
subego
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Mar 8, 2020, 03:34 PM
 
Originally Posted by Thorzdad View Post
Liz does a really good Kate there.
I have to say... Kate is kinda phoning (ha) it in, while Liz is like, laser focused.
     
subego
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Mar 8, 2020, 03:34 PM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
Confused Biden Calls Himself "Obiden Bama Democrat”.

https://t.co/TE18cVYjKb



-t
He’s not wrong.
     
subego
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Mar 8, 2020, 06:35 PM
 
There’s a Turkish restaurant near me which closed, and became the campaign office for someone running to be a State Representative. After about two weeks it was Midwesterners for Amy Klobuchar. Now it’s Biden.

Wheeeeee!
     
turtle777
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Mar 9, 2020, 02:50 AM
 
Biden: “We cannot win this re-election — excuse me. We can only re-elect Donald Trump.”

https://twitter.com/DanScavino/statu...594294785?s=20



Edit: it’s now being said the video is a fake.

-t
     
Laminar
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Mar 9, 2020, 08:32 AM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
Confused Biden Calls Himself "Obiden Bama Democrat”.

https://t.co/TE18cVYjKb



-t
Negative posts about Biden on Reddit have spiked hard over the weekend. Lots of reposts and remixes of Biden creeping on women.
     
Waragainstsleep
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Mar 10, 2020, 05:57 AM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
How is that surprising ?
Crying wolf Russia is a standard practice for establishment Democrats to deflect from their own incompetence.

-t
Its true though. Our government is still sitting on a report on Russian election interference they should have released before they got re-elected. No prizes for guessing why.
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
Waragainstsleep
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Mar 10, 2020, 05:59 AM
 
Originally Posted by Laminar View Post
Negative posts about Biden on Reddit have spiked hard over the weekend. Lots of reposts and remixes of Biden creeping on women.
Seems the conservative fake news machine is ramping up against Biden. Didn't Twitter already catch Trump tweeting a fake vid of him?
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
andi*pandi  (op)
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Aug 11, 2020, 08:23 PM
 
BIDEN HARRIS 2020

@KamalaHarris
[email protected] can unify the American people because he's spent his life fighting for us. And as president, he'll build an America that lives up to our ideals.

I'm honored to join him as our party's nominee for Vice President, and do what it takes to make him our Commander-in-Chief.
Cue the racist misogyny!
     
turtle777
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Aug 11, 2020, 09:28 PM
 
Welp.

Her track record as a DA should make her toxic for the woke, authority and police hating crowd.

-t
     
MacNNFamous
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Aug 11, 2020, 09:59 PM
 
God ****ing dammit.

HEY **** YOU CENTRIST CORPORATE PIECES OF SHIT PUPPETS. CAN WE AT LEAST HAVE A PROGRESSIVE CANDIDATE TO APPEASE PROGRESSIVES AND LEFTISTS?

DNC: Nah go **** yourselves.

WTFFFFFFFFFF
     
subego
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Aug 12, 2020, 07:29 AM
 
Originally Posted by MacNNFamous View Post
WTFFFFFFFFFF
     
Waragainstsleep
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Aug 12, 2020, 07:31 AM
 
Going far left in a country willing to elect an obviously legally and morally corrupt wannabe dictator who flies in the face of every value they ever claimed to hold dear (except the pursuit of wealth) is a big big risk. Its not going to flip those middle-right voters as easily as a more centrist option.
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
subego
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Aug 12, 2020, 07:36 AM
 
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
Going far left in a country willing to elect an obviously legally and morally corrupt wannabe dictator who flies in the face of every value they ever claimed to hold dear (except the pursuit of wealth) is a big big risk. Its not going to flip those middle-right voters as easily as a more centrist option.
This is the thought process which gave us Hillary.

I remember my dad saying basically the exact same thing four years ago.
     
Thorzdad
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Aug 12, 2020, 08:12 AM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
This is the thought process which gave us Hillary.
You mean the woman who trounced Trump by almost 2.9 million votes?
[set curmudgeon_mode=1]
     
Laminar
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Aug 12, 2020, 08:34 AM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
Welp.

Her track record as a DA should make her toxic for the woke, authority and police hating crowd.

-t
"If I can prove that the side I don't like are hypocrites, it means that their positions hold no merit."
     
subego
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Aug 12, 2020, 08:35 AM
 
Originally Posted by Thorzdad View Post
You mean the woman who trounced Trump by almost 2.9 million votes?
I don’t take much solace in her winning two percentage points over a Cheeto.
     
andi*pandi  (op)
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Aug 12, 2020, 10:15 AM
 
Originally Posted by MacNNFamous View Post
CAN WE AT LEAST HAVE A PROGRESSIVE CANDIDATE TO APPEASE PROGRESSIVES AND LEFTISTS?
Meanwhile the Republican messaging is already using the scare tactics of KAMALA IS A PROGRESSIVE FAR LEFT LIBERAL OoooOOooooOOO! That's when they're not implying she slept her way to the top.

So she and Joe might not be as left as Bernie, but to some they might as well be.

Joe has the ability to evolve on some issues, and already has. Cynicism might say it was part of the negotiations of endorsement he and Bernie had... or just smart reading of the room? What does it matter if we get health insurance and the $15 min wage?
     
subego
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Aug 12, 2020, 10:27 AM
 
I kinda like Joe to be honest, and have for awhile, but he says really stupid shit.
     
andi*pandi  (op)
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Aug 12, 2020, 10:56 AM
 
Sometimes, yeah, but he also has a stutter. He's never said we won WWII because of the Pandemic of 1917.
     
subego
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Aug 12, 2020, 11:26 AM
 
Originally Posted by andi*pandi View Post
Sometimes, yeah, but he also has a stutter. He's never said we won WWII because of the Pandemic of 1917.
One of the reasons I think Trump “succeeds” is he’s not being held to normal political standards. I’ve lost count of how many times he’s done something which would get any normal politician ridden out on a rail.

If Biden gets held to normal political standards, well... he’s cratered multiple campaigns by being a dumbass.
     
andi*pandi  (op)
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Aug 12, 2020, 12:15 PM
 
Absolutely trump gets away with things that would pillory other candidates. Yet perhaps out of some semblance of respecting our government, dems are still playing by the old rules.
     
subego
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Aug 12, 2020, 12:17 PM
 
Originally Posted by andi*pandi View Post
Absolutely trump gets away with things that would pillory other candidates. Yet perhaps out of some semblance of respecting our government, dems are still playing by the old rules.
Which will be horrible for Biden, who will get shanked by his own party like Al Franken did.
     
OreoCookie
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Aug 12, 2020, 08:10 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Which will be horrible for Biden, who will get shanked by his own party like Al Franken did.
Al Franken didn’t get shanked by his party, he was made to step down because of his inappropriate conduct towards women. The bar for people in elected office should be higher than what we consider normal, not lower.
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subego
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Aug 12, 2020, 08:46 PM
 
If the choices are standards which would have kept Franken in play versus four more years of Trump, I pick Franken.
     
andi*pandi  (op)
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Aug 12, 2020, 09:11 PM
 
Al Franken was willing to have a congressional investigation (proper procedure) but the pitchfork crowd wouldn't wait for it. What he was accused of was not even in the league of some Republicans who still have jobs - Trump included.
     
OreoCookie
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Aug 12, 2020, 09:20 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
If the choices are standards which would have kept Franken in play versus four more years of Trump, I pick Franken.
I don't understand. Why is the choice to either keep Franken or Trump?

@andi*pandi
I agree that Franken's misconduct was of a very different order of magnitude. Especially in this day and age when norms don't seem to mean much, I think it is good if we keep our elected officials to a higher standard.
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subego
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Aug 13, 2020, 06:17 AM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
I don't understand. Why is the choice to either keep Franken or Trump?
Trump will likely beat Biden in my estimation. Were Franken still in play, he would have ran, and likely beaten Trump.
     
Spheric Harlot
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Aug 13, 2020, 06:20 AM
 
nm.
( Last edited by Spheric Harlot; Aug 13, 2020 at 06:21 AM. Reason: subego done explicated his thinkings.)
     
subego
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Aug 13, 2020, 06:32 AM
 
Originally Posted by andi*pandi View Post
Al Franken was willing to have a congressional investigation (proper procedure) but the pitchfork crowd wouldn't wait for it. What he was accused of was not even in the league of some Republicans who still have jobs - Trump included.
I had forgotten, but a friend reminded me... wasn’t Harris the middle tine of that pitchfork?

Further, wasn’t part of the strategy to have ammo against Roy Moore, who ended up losing?
     
OreoCookie
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Aug 13, 2020, 09:42 AM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Trump will likely beat Biden in my estimation.
Fivethirtyeight puts the odds of a Trump win at 28 %. That’s still quite high, but I don’t think it’s fair to say a Trump re-election is likely. For reference, in 2016 538 pegged Trump’s election odds at roughly 33 % if memory serves. Both are still quite high if you think about it, though.
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Were Franken still in play, he would have ran, and likely beaten Trump.
IMHO the vast majority of the top-5 or even top-10 Democratic presidential candidates would have had good odds to beat Trump. I don’t think the Democrats would have needed another candidate, their candidate pool was already large enough and diversely stocked. Nor is it clear that Franken would have been the front runner given the competition.
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subego
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Aug 13, 2020, 11:02 AM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
Fivethirtyeight puts the odds of a Trump win at 28 %. That’s still quite high, but I don’t think it’s fair to say a Trump re-election is likely. For reference, in 2016 538 pegged Trump’s election odds at roughly 33 % if memory serves. Both are still quite high if you think about it, though.

IMHO the vast majority of the top-5 or even top-10 Democratic presidential candidates would have had good odds to beat Trump. I don’t think the Democrats would have needed another candidate, their candidate pool was already large enough and diversely stocked. Nor is it clear that Franken would have been the front runner given the competition.
No candidate was as rhetorically gifted as Franken, or as funny. Most importantly, he would have provided excitement, which is what drives people to the actual polls.

Voters driven to actual polls, not polls conducted by pollsters, who drive themselves to the maybe-voter.

I think Nate has done a good job of increasing the rigor under which we analyze polls, but as far as I can see, has made little headway into predicting the intangibles which comprise the actual turnout.
     
OreoCookie
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Aug 13, 2020, 12:14 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
No candidate was as rhetorically gifted as Franken, or as funny. Most importantly, he would have provided excitement, which is what drives people to the actual polls.
Do people really want great orators? We have been spoiled with Barack Obama, but Bush 2 wasn't a gifted speaker. Nor is Donald Trump. Many people complain about Biden's gaffes, but that doesn't seem to hurt him in the polls. I have the impression many people want a decidedly boring candidate this time — which is the opposite of Franken. The Democrats had an embarrassment of riches in the primaries, and they went to Joe Biden in the end, even though he initially wasn't the favorite, perhaps even in the top 3. Bernie Sanders looked like the sure choice. Biden is also palatable to some moderate conservatives, they'll have an easier time to vote for him than, say, Elizabeth Warren.

Just to be clear: I'm not a huge fan of Biden, he's too old for starters. My post isn't meant to defend him, but rather to explain why I think he is doing as well as he does.
Originally Posted by subego View Post
I think Nate has done a good job of increasing the rigor under which we analyze polls, but as far as I can see, has made little headway into predicting the intangibles which comprise the actual turnout.
I'm not sure what you mean here. Statistical models are models and Nate Silver's have a good track record. He was one of the few who was bang on about 2016, too. 72 % tells us that Biden is the clear favorite, but 28 % isn't small. If you had an unfair coin and tails came up 28 %, you'd still have a decent chance at getting tails.
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subego
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Aug 13, 2020, 12:31 PM
 
The last two Democratic presidents are two of the greatest living orators, while Hillary was embarrassingly weak on that front, and Biden has tanked multiple times from putting his foot in his mouth. This is what to me demonstrates the importance of oratory skill in a Democratic candidate.

Bush and Trump aren’t Democrats.

To put my comment about 538 in another way, polls do a poor job of predicting turnout, and turnout is all that really matters.


Edit: I’ll also add Trump is an accomplished grifter. That wouldn’t be possible without strong oratory skills, however, they’re undeniably coarse.

The Bush family does suck at it though.
( Last edited by subego; Aug 13, 2020 at 01:05 PM. )
     
MacNNFamous
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Aug 13, 2020, 01:30 PM
 
I have like no hope left. Just going to keep building cars, go snowmobiling, skiing, and mountain biking. We're ****ed.

Also, buying more guns.
     
reader50
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Aug 13, 2020, 02:15 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Bush and Trump aren’t Democrats. [oratory skills]
I am forced to agree. Republican voters appear to favor the (R) beside the name, over almost any other factor. The 2018 Alabama election involving Roy Moore is an example. One that's bothered me ever since.

Moore was an accused child molester. His (D) opponent had a decent record, nothing obviously bad about him. The accusations were credible, though no charges have happened so far. The (D) candidate won by only 1.63%. Most (R) voters still chose an accused child molester over an ok guy with a (D) beside his name.
     
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Aug 13, 2020, 03:32 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
: I’ll also add Trump is an accomplished grifter. That wouldn’t be possible without strong oratory skills, however, they’re undeniably coarse.
Ehhhhhh...not really. An accomplished grifter like Trump excels more at telling their mark whatever they think the mark wants to hear, up to and including seeming to agree with the mark on every point. That’s not exactly oration. It’s just salesmanship.

Now, Trump does seem to use that method whenever he does any public speaking, basically rattling off every possible bigoted trope and nutjob conspiracy he can recall (even inventing new ones on the fly) that he knows his fans will suck up. Of course, that assumes a whole lot more mental awareness on his part than I think he actually has.
[set curmudgeon_mode=1]
     
subego
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Aug 13, 2020, 06:03 PM
 
Originally Posted by Thorzdad View Post
Ehhhhhh...not really. An accomplished grifter like Trump excels more at telling their mark whatever they think the mark wants to hear, up to and including seeming to agree with the mark on every point. That’s not exactly oration. It’s just salesmanship.

Now, Trump does seem to use that method whenever he does any public speaking, basically rattling off every possible bigoted trope and nutjob conspiracy he can recall (even inventing new ones on the fly) that he knows his fans will suck up. Of course, that assumes a whole lot more mental awareness on his part than I think he actually has.
I think it can be learned through conditioning. Not much mental awareness needed.

I don’t object to the distinction being drawn between oratory and salesmanship, but in terms of getting people to vote, there’s lots of overlap.
     
subego
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Aug 13, 2020, 06:21 PM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
I am forced to agree. Republican voters appear to favor the (R) beside the name, over almost any other factor. The 2018 Alabama election involving Roy Moore is an example. One that's bothered me ever since.

Moore was an accused child molester. His (D) opponent had a decent record, nothing obviously bad about him. The accusations were credible, though no charges have happened so far. The (D) candidate won by only 1.63%. Most (R) voters still chose an accused child molester over an ok guy with a (D) beside his name.
This is the most important difference between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans are team players.

As the saying goes, Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line.

That saying is usually trotted out as an explanation for Republican behavior, like I’m doing now, but the Democratic half usually falls by the wayside.

Well, look at Bill Clinton and Obama, then look at Hillary Clinton and John Kerry.

It’s pretty obvious which group Biden fits into.
     
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Aug 13, 2020, 06:49 PM
 
It's their own ****ing fault, and the DNC would rather have trump win again than have an actual progressive, because they're bitch ass puppets controlled by corporate America.

Option A: Run a centrist hack who got his ass kicked for most of the entire primary until 70% of the candidates dropped out at the last second simultaneously, along with a time traveling cop as a VP to alienate progressives and anyone attacked by the justice system

Option B: Run the most popular candidate in recent history, with by FAR the most number of small campaign donations from all over the entire god damn country, and start changing things

DNC: A!!!!!!!
     
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Aug 13, 2020, 08:17 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
The last two Democratic presidents are two of the greatest living orators, while Hillary was embarrassingly weak on that front, and Biden has tanked multiple times from putting his foot in his mouth. This is what to me demonstrates the importance of oratory skill in a Democratic candidate.
Yes, I agree that Bill Clinton and Barack Obama are great public speakers, and was certainly a weapon in their arsenal. But correlation is not causation. I don’t see that this is a top priority among Democratic voters.
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Edit: I’ll also add Trump is an accomplished grifter. That wouldn’t be possible without strong oratory skills, however, they’re undeniably coarse.
I think you are conflating a public speaker and how well one speaks in private — and I think Trump’s skills work better in a private setting. From all accounts, Hillary Clinton was great at interacting with people in private, too.
( Last edited by OreoCookie; Aug 13, 2020 at 08:31 PM. )
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OreoCookie
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Aug 13, 2020, 08:29 PM
 
Originally Posted by MacNNFamous View Post
It's their own ****ing fault, and the DNC would rather have trump win again than have an actual progressive, because they're bitch ass puppets controlled by corporate America.

Option A: Run a centrist hack who got his ass kicked for most of the entire primary until 70% of the candidates dropped out at the last second simultaneously, along with a time traveling cop as a VP to alienate progressives and anyone attacked by the justice system

Option B: Run the most popular candidate in recent history, with by FAR the most number of small campaign donations from all over the entire god damn country, and start changing things

DNC: A!!!!!!!
But I’m not sure whether this still isn’t the better electoral strategy. Take Jeremy Corbin, the UK’s version of Bernie Sanders. Progressives in the UK cheered when he was made the leader of Labor, and Labor got creamed in the last election (I realize that thanks to this stupid winner-takes-all system, their loss of seats does not comport with their loss of votes, but you have to know what system you are running in).

Similarly, a Bernie Sanders would have been a no-go for many centrists who are on the fence with Trump. Unlike in 2016, Bernie Sanders was considered the front runner in the primaries, had the most money and still lost. The Twitterverse isn’t representative of reality, and money isn’t everything. I don’t think this was the DNC pulling strings, I think the voters in the Democratic primary just thought they had a better chance to beat Trump with Biden than with Sanders. Another point for Biden is that he can have a cabinet of all-starts. I think many people think it is likely that Elizabeth Warren and Andrew Yang will have cabinet posts (if they want to).

PS If I were American and could have voted in a Democratic primary, I would not have voted for Biden. I’m just trying to analyze what has happened objectively.
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MacNNFamous
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Aug 14, 2020, 12:04 PM
 
They thought those exact thoughts in 2016 and progressives, young people, and minorities didn't even show up to vote.

And I disagree. After hearing "vote blue no matter who" from these pieces of shit so many times in 2016, they would have to vote blue. No matter who.
     
andi*pandi  (op)
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Aug 14, 2020, 12:24 PM
 
There were a lot of contributing factors for that - bots infiltrating and instigating discord among the party.

I like Bernie. I voted for him in the 2016 primary. But I would hope a lot of the Bernie Bros etc learned from 2016 and don't take their ball and stay home, or vote 3rd party "to prove a point." That's free votes for Trump.

Even before the Kamala VP pick, Joe was doing pretty good in states with lots of minorities. That's when he got momentum, when the early primaries (in very white states) were over and BOOM south carolina. Will Kamala help him even more? Likely, despite all the "cop" bots.
     
 
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