[quiklee]

The stock has gone from 48 to 72 in the last two months since the announcement of the new iMac, ipod Video, and ipod Nano . . . do you guys think the stock is going to go up higher?

In all honesty, i'm relatively new to the stock market and once piece of advice was to invest something i was truly interested in so I could understand it more thoroughly. I thought i'd come here and see if anyone invests in stocks too.

Thanks.

[wdlove]

I think that the success of the switch to Intel will make all the difference. Also continued success if the iTMS and the iPod.

[medicineman]

Originally Posted by quiklee

The stock has gone from 48 to 72 in the last two months since the announcement of the new iMac, ipod Video, and ipod Nano . . . do you guys think the stock is going to go up higher?

In all honesty, i'm relatively new to the stock market and once piece of advice was to invest something i was truly interested in so I could understand it more thoroughly. I thought i'd come here and see if anyone invests in stocks too.

Thanks.

Invest with your mind and not with your heart. Apple is a good company. Most financial sites say that they are now putting too much emphasis on iTunes and related software, rather than the hardware and OS which brought them fame. The charts say the stock is oversold. Some analysts say the new target is $86. It's a bet you have to make with your cash.

[miacomet]

Some people said not to buy google at $350. They were wrong. But at some point the stock has to go down. I think that people are betting that the switch to Intel will be a major gain for Apple, if it isn't major I think the stock will go down.

[quiklee]

when you say that analysts list the new target at $86 . . . what does that exactly mean? it's at 73 right now, so i should buy now and sell at 86?

[medicineman]

Originally Posted by quiklee

when you say that analysts list the new target at $86 . . . what does that exactly mean? it's at 73 right now, so i should buy now and sell at 86?

It means that some belive the fair value for a share of stock is $86. Here is a good site for charting:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui Use their tutorials for chart reading. It's very good.

[Big Mac]

Originally Posted by quiklee

when you say that analysts list the new target at $86 . . . what does that exactly mean? it's at 73 right now, so i should buy now and sell at 86?

Over the last number of months I have gotten pretty serious about the market. I have been watching it on a daily basis, looking at a number of individual stocks, reading publications and watching investment shows. My advice to know what the risks are and to know how to trade stocks efficiently. Can you afford to buy Apple at this relatively pricey level? How many shares can you afford? If you can only afford a small amount of shares (fewer than 50, say), then Apple is too pricey for you. If you have to risk money you need and can't afford to lose, then Apple is too expensive for you. Remember, The stock market is unpredictable and can leave you in a lurch especially if you're only starting out. Also beware of high commissions that traditional brokers charge. If iPod growth can hold up, Apple will continue its meteoric rise. I think the fundamentals and technicals remain strong, but since it's up so high (since the viPod, as you noted), it's more of a risk. If you're interested in the market, definitely watch Jim Cramer's Mad Money on CNBC 6PM, 9PM and 12AM EST.

[driven]

I'll bet we have a split by 1Q at the latest. (Unless it tanks)

[Dork.]

Originally Posted by medicineman

It means that some belive the fair value for a share of stock is $86. Here is a good site for charting:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui Use their tutorials for chart reading. It's very good.

I'll second the recommendation for stockcharts.com, as one of the best sites to start learning about technical analysis. (I read up on the subject a few years ago, but dropped it once I realized that the arrival of my daughter meant less fun money to invest...) But keep in mind that those charts only really look at the price of the stock (and how many shares were traded) over time, and not at the underlying performance of the company. I think there's something to that analysis, and so does medicineman apparently, but just to warn you some people think it's all hooey.

The people who look at the performance of Apple and are raising their targets are expecting more revenue and profit, in the form of more iPod sales (and possibly more InteliMac sales). Personally, I think that there are probably better places out there for your money than Apple stock. The trick is finding them, though, and you already know about Apple.
It has gone up quite a bit, and if any bad news comes out it could spike back down rather quickly. But Apple's been selling a ton of these iPod thingies, and as long as they do that, people will want to buy the stock, too, to get a piece of that action.

Stocks are all about supply and demand, just like any other market. Particularly with Tech stocks like Apple that pay no dividend, the stock price is all about how popular the stock is. As long as more people want to buy Apple stock than sell it, it will keep going up.

Originally Posted by driven

I'll bet we have a split by 1Q at the latest. (Unless it tanks)

Ditto.

[cube-dude]

Originally Posted by Big Mac

Remember, The stock market is unpredictable ...

It's also incredibly fickle. What sold me on AAPL was Apple's mid-October conference call, where the company reported $3.68 billion in revenue vs. the $3.74 billion the so-called financial "analysts" expected. The suits also expected more quarterly iPod sales (8.5 million vs. 6.45 million actual). As a result, the stock tanked.

The day after the call, video iPods were rumored. I picked up the phone and bought 100 shares. Sure enough, the next day saw video iPods. The stock had a one day gain of nine percent, to $53.74. The market was stupid, and I treated it as such. Tonight, the stock closed at $74.08, and the holidays and Intel aren't even here yet.

My best advice: buy on rumor, sell on fact.

[himself]

Originally Posted by driven

I'll bet we have a split by 1Q at the latest. (Unless it tanks)

The stock will split somewhere around $80/share.

[SVass]

If you are young and interested in gambling like poker, slot machines, or lottery tickets , then you can buy a single stock. You can invest 5% of serious savings or less in a single company; but, long term retirement savings should be in no-load mutual funds. sam

[Big Mac]

Mutual funds can be just as risky as any other equities play, despite the diversification they provide. If you're in the wrong mutual funds (such as tech funds in 2001), you can see your assets decline precipitously. If you are attentive to the momentum of the market and guard your portfolio, you can do really well investing in individual stocks. With that said, diversification is terrifically important; investing predominately in a single stock is folly.

[driven]

Investing in a single industry is folly.
That said: My Mutual Funds don't reflect the above believe. I'm heavilly leveraged in small-caps and international funds.
Cube-Dude ... what part of the market was stupid? (Just trying to fully understand your message)

[cube-dude]

Originally Posted by driven

Cube-Dude ... what part of the market was stupid? (Just trying to fully understand your message)

In that ignorant analyst folly alone can drive down a stock 10% one day yet right back up the next. So basically some guy in a suit can be wrong about their own estimates, and blame Apple for it (potentially harming its investors). Stupid. In this case I'm not complaining, of course, because many people, including myself, had their chance at a sweet deal. Here was one take:

______________________________________________

Apple reclaims shine, rises 9%

By Rex Crum, MarketWatch
Last Update: 5:07 PM ET Oct. 13, 2005

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Apple Computer Inc. rose more than 9% Thursday as investors shook off what some analysts called irrational selling of the stock and flocked back to the company, following the release of its new iPod video player.

Apple climbed $4.49 to end the day at $53.74 on volume of more than 66 million shares exchanged, closing higher than where the stock was prior to Apple's fourth-quarter report, released after the market closed Tuesday.

Investors trimmed Apple's sales on Wednesday in reaction to the company reporting revenue of $3.68 billion, which fell shy of analysts' consensus forecasts of $3.74 billion. The company also sold 6.45 million iPods in the quarter, while many analysts expected the company to sell as many as 8.5 million of the devices.

Still, Apple earned $430 million, or 50 a share before one-time items, and recorded the highest quarterly profits and revenue in its history. Romeo Dator, manager of U.S. Global Investors All-American Equity Fund, said the marketplace fell victim to its own unrealistic expectations.

"The market really misunderstood Apple's report," added Dator. "Wall Street had been ratcheting up its estimates without any new guidance from the company."

Dator also said Apple makes up about 1% of his $21 million fund.

But Apple came back a day after unveiling its revamped iMac personal computer and a new iPod that can play music videos and TV shows, in addition to digital music.

The company also announced a partnership with the Walt Disney Co. to allow downloads of certain TV shows, including "Lost" and "Desperate Housewives."

After a week of speculation about a video iPod player and the likely positive reaction to it, Dator said, "it didn't make sense for people to sell the stock before the announcement when Apple has had so many successful products come out."

[driven]

Good stuff. I was part of that run up ... unfortunately I didn't have ENOUGH stock. :-)
I bought my second batch at $70 or $71. Hopefully it continues.

Thanks for the education. It's appreciated.

[JoshuaZ]

I knew I should have bought Apple at $12 back in 1993....

[schwank]

shoot it was 15 or so 2-3 years ago!

[jbhopper]

<brag>I bought 100 shares when it was at $13, right before they announced the iTMS. I has since split, so my $1300 investment is now worth $14,400. I wish I had bought more.</brag>

[nelliott]

Originally Posted by himself

The stock will split somewhere around $80/share.

What makes you think that? Not doubting you just genuinely interested as I have a few quid invested in AAPL.

I know they split at about $80 - $85 earlier in the year.

[Peter Bonte]

5 years ago i bought at 35 and it tankt to 12 just 2 weeks later, but i held on to them.

Apple is a stock to keep for years and only sell when you really need the money. The only thing i'm afraid off is Steve dieng in a accident or something. Apple needs a second man or woman on the wheel.

[driven]

Nelliott, I think they split at $64 earlier this year. (2/28/05 was the last split date.)

Peter ... I agree. THe biggest risk exposure for AAPL right now is the very thing that makes the stock so attractive. Namely Steve Jobs. If they come up with an imortality pill then we can all relax .. until then .. it's something to watch. If he dies in an accident then all of us holding stock will be screwed. (At least in the short term.) I'd like to think that this is something that Apple's board and even Steve himself have considered ... but we'll see.

[medicineman]

Originally Posted by Peter Bonte

5 years ago i bought at 35 and it tankt to 12 just 2 weeks later, but i held on to them.

Apple is a stock to keep for years and only sell when you really need the money. The only thing i'm afraid off is Steve dieng in a accident or something. Apple needs a second man or woman on the wheel.

This is not for you specifically, but for everyone. I said earlier, do not invest with your heart. Apple is a good company. At the moment. But there have been many 'good' companies. Keep in mind such giants as Lucent, Ford and General Motors.

Unless you are a day trader, which makes your hair fall out prematurely, a low fee index fund is probably the best way to invest.

[Peter Bonte]

True, i invested with my hart (these 1000 apples are all the stock i own!) but i also invested in the only company i know and love like no other. snick

Next year will be great for apple, the move to intel, clones, more video and music sales ... Don't forget the iTunes store is perfect to sell cheap digital content so why not sell stock photo's, PDF's and apps?

Especially stock photography keeping in mind the iPod photo. Wonder why they wait so long! :/

[Person Man]

Originally Posted by Peter Bonte

Especially stock photography keeping in mind the iPod photo. Wonder why they wait so long! :/

Oh yeah. I REALLY want to look at stock photography on my iPod. NOT!

That's a really stupid idea.

[Peter Bonte]

Hm yeah ok, point taken. Maybe thats to professional to be interesting at the moment.

PDF's seem like a good idea but there is no specialized portable device to view them on, selling photo's isn't interesting for the mass public, selling apps maybe for the iPod but at the moment limited in use. There has to be an Apple branded PDA if Apple wants to broaden the content on iTunes, guess we'll have to wait for a revitalized newton first.

[stubertio]

Like many, I have invested with my heart rather than my head. I put £5000 of my savings into Apple a couple of months ago when they were at $47. I have so far been VERY happy with what I've seen and even invested another £2000 a month ago. For an initial investment of just over £7000, my portfolio now sits at £11000! It makes all of this stock market business look easy! I worry though about the reliance on a sole figure — SJ. God forbid, if anything were to happen to him, we'd all be in the crapper.
I am constantly reading about the stock market but invested in AAPL without much knowledge at all. Back when I was a young lad I was always preaching on about Apple and telling everyone I met that they weren't going bankrupt and Microsoft weren't buying them! As I've now reached an age where I have a bit of money to invest I thought it was finally time to put my money where my mouth is!
The hardest thing about all of this is deciding when to sell. If you chart the performance of AAPL over the past few years it has been phenomenal; from $6 back in late 2002 up to $74 at the close of play on Friday. Will they continue to rise? I don't know, but I don't think I'll be able to ride it out for that long as the money I used to invest was part of my savings for a mortgage. I think I'll be cashing in soon to make a quick few thousand and, unfortunately, unless I come into some money over the next few years, doubt that I will be investing much in a single stock like AAPL again.
To all those people that had the courage to buy at $6, $10, $20... Balls of steel I say! I hope you're seeing the rewards.

S

[Eyenovation]

We've been keeping a close eye on Apple Computer. They keep finding ways to increase revenue despite analysts downgrading the stock. If the rumors are true with their new Mac Mini to be announced at MWSF, I'd look to see profits continuing to rise. iLife w. Front Row 2 will be huge and make the Mac Mini the iPod of the living room. Couple that with Video on Demand, and it has potential to really drive the price of the stock.

Just like a year ago, I'd look to see AAPL split (again) at around $85. iPod sales are going crazy too, so Apple will report an amazing 4th quarter.

[Peter Bonte]

hear hear

[Dork.]

I saw this today (from thestreet.com, linked from Yahoo!)

CSFB also upped its stock price target for Apple (AAPL:Nasdaq - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) to $82 from $56 while also raising first-quarter estimates. CSFB raised its estimate of iPod shipments to 11 million from 9.45 million as it believes shipments will exceed initial expectations for the first quarter of 2006. Apple was up 66 cents, or 0.9%, to $74.99.

It seems like analysts are definitely looking at iPod shipments as a main component of why they increase their targets. Not all of the run-up from $56 to $82 is due to the increased iPod estimates, of course, but I think that the difference between the current price of $74 and their new target of $82 is based mainly on iPod shipments.

11 million iPods is just a few short of a bazillion. It's almost twice as much as they shipped in the preceding quarter (which, to state the obvious, was only three months ago!). When the stock tanked after the last earnings report, it was because analysts expected some 8M iPods sold when the actual number was around 6.5M. Of course, it quickly bounced back, and has gained a lot since then. Will the same thing happen this time?

[Peter Bonte]

sure, short term investors take there profit so it can tank. On a yearly basis it looks great.

Its sad they only look to the iPod sales but understandable because its the engine for the iTunes sales. Now lets see how they'll react to the Macintel and osX for PC.

[mjgrothaus]

I'm not going to comment either way as to if AAPL will continue to climb or if it has peaked. I will however say that you should take what everyone says with a grain of salt and base buying a stock on your own studies of that company.

Whats funny is this article below written on October 25, 2001 - three weeks after the introduction of the iPod. This Street.com expert recoomended dumping Apple stock then. The stock is up 1600% since the artice was written.

Read it, it's quite funny....

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/comm.../10002957.html

[Peter Bonte]

Hilarious, tx for the link

with Dell's build-to-order model the clear winner over the long term.

DELL was 60$ in 2000, now just over 30$. au man. i buy all my apple stuff online at the store so BTO isn't bad as long as its transparent and easy. Not having a good Apple store in the neighborhood is another reason i buy online.