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The Paris Climate Disagreement (Page 13)
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Snow-i
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Sep 14, 2017, 03:44 PM
 
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
That's why Laminar corrected me that it was an anecdotal.
Did not seem like you accepted that correction, given your statement about others using equally faulty logic about snowballs in april and that "there are signs of extreme weather". But if we're in agreement that there is nothing to tie Irma to climate change one way or the other, then
     
subego
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Sep 14, 2017, 04:15 PM
 
I think what we'd want is a graph showing the total intensity of this type of climate activity per year.

In theory, the line on the graph will be trending up.
     
Snow-i
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Sep 14, 2017, 04:38 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
I think what we'd want is a graph showing the total intensity of this type of climate activity per year.

In theory, the line on the graph will be trending up.
Ask and ye shall receive. From NOAA. Also keep in mind that hurricane tracking in the early 20th century is not what it is today, and also that named storms in modern times might not have been recognized as tropical storms before we had planes, satellites, etc taking a good look at them.

     
Chongo
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Sep 14, 2017, 04:52 PM
 
Now, match that with annual storm predictions.
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subego
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Sep 14, 2017, 05:05 PM
 
Originally Posted by Snow-i View Post
Ask and ye shall receive. From NOAA. Also keep in mind that hurricane tracking in the early 20th century is not what it is today, and also that named storms in modern times might not have been recognized as tropical storms before we had planes, satellites, etc taking a good look at them.

Thank you!

I think major hurricanes is the most useful bit here, and suffers the least from poor reporting in the past.

Taken as a whole, there's an obvious drift up. Correcting (very roughly) for the bad data problem by cutting the graph off... the span from 1930 to 1995 eyeballs differently than 1995 onward.

So, that's not inconsistent with AGW, but the difference isn't large enough I'd call it conclusive, either.
     
OreoCookie
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Sep 14, 2017, 05:18 PM
 
There is a conjecture that warming of oceans will increase the strength of storms and there are studies on the way, but the research is not conclusive yet. This conjecture is based on the well-known fact that higher water temperatures lead to higher intensity storms.
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Paco500
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Sep 14, 2017, 05:27 PM
 
Taking the increase (or not) of major storms off the table, a rise in temperature will mean that the air holds more moisture. More moisture in the air means more rainfall. More rainfall means more flooding.

Add higher sea levels to the mix, and it only gets worse.

Rising temperatures due to climate change can have adverse effects even if major storms are no more frequent.
     
Laminar
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Sep 14, 2017, 05:38 PM
 
Originally Posted by Chongo View Post
Now, match that with annual storm predictions.
Why?

Originally Posted by subego View Post
So, that's not inconsistent with AGW, but the difference isn't large enough I'd call it conclusive, either.
Not necessarily. You'd have to show that the rate of change of tropical storms correlates with some facet of AGW and that this isn't a result of the earth's natural cooling and warming cycles.
     
Snow-i
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Sep 14, 2017, 07:03 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Thank you!

I think major hurricanes is the most useful bit here, and suffers the least from poor reporting in the past.

Taken as a whole, there's an obvious drift up. Correcting (very roughly) for the bad data problem by cutting the graph off... the span from 1930 to 1995 eyeballs differently than 1995 onward.

So, that's not inconsistent with AGW, but the difference isn't large enough I'd call it conclusive, either.
Nor does it rule out other contributing factors such as the bad data you speak of. Stands to reason that a category 5 in the middle of the Atlantic in August 1903 might not be recognized at all. I am not qualified to analyze the data further, but I believe the data sets are available on NOAA if anyone wants to take a crack at it.
     
Snow-i
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Sep 14, 2017, 07:03 PM
 
Originally Posted by Paco500 View Post
Taking the increase (or not) of major storms off the table, a rise in temperature will mean that the air holds more moisture. More moisture in the air means more rainfall. More rainfall means more flooding.

Add higher sea levels to the mix, and it only gets worse.

Rising temperatures due to climate change can have adverse effects even if major storms are no more frequent.
More moisture also means more clouds, which reduces heat absorption.
     
Snow-i
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Sep 14, 2017, 07:09 PM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
There is a conjecture that warming of oceans will increase the strength of storms and there are studies on the way, but the research is not conclusive yet. This conjecture is based on the well-known fact that higher water temperatures lead to higher intensity storms.
Indeed this is correct, though I'm not certain it's so simple.

I don't think the direct impact on water temperature would be a significant factor. However, the effects on the currents (which mediate temperature/oxygenation) which indirectly impact temperature, the clouds which impact albedo (and thus temperature), and wind patterns would be the bigger story here.
     
subego
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Sep 14, 2017, 07:29 PM
 
Originally Posted by Snow-i View Post
Nor does it rule out other contributing factors such as the bad data you speak of. Stands to reason that a category 5 in the middle of the Atlantic in August 1903 might not be recognized at all. I am not qualified to analyze the data further, but I believe the data sets are available on NOAA if anyone wants to take a crack at it.
Oh, absolutely.

That's why I wanted to cut off the earlier part of the graph. I'm not trusting how complete the data is until the 1930-1940 range.
     
OreoCookie
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Sep 14, 2017, 08:42 PM
 
Originally Posted by Snow-i View Post
Nor does it rule out other contributing factors such as the bad data you speak of. Stands to reason that a category 5 in the middle of the Atlantic in August 1903 might not be recognized at all. I am not qualified to analyze the data further, but I believe the data sets are available on NOAA if anyone wants to take a crack at it.
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Oh, absolutely.

That's why I wanted to cut off the earlier part of the graph. I'm not trusting how complete the data is until the 1930-1940 range.
The accuracy of weather observation improved tremendously in the late 1960s when we started getting data from weather satellites, before then you had to rely on sightings. Traffic on the oceans has also increased over time which also increased the probability to detect storms. So I was focussing at the part of the graph from 1970s onwards. I also think the period of observation (with reliable data) might be too short, many extreme events are, as the name suggests, extremely rare.
Originally Posted by Snow-i View Post
Indeed this is correct, though I'm not certain it's so simple.
The evidence for a link between anthropogenic climate change and extreme weather patterns in general (drought, heavy rain, flooding, etc.) is much stronger, and I think it is important to clarify my earlier point by saying that there is evidence pointing to a positive correlation for an increased severity of hurricanes and storms, but that hasn't been strong enough to call it definitive.
Originally Posted by Snow-i View Post
I don't think the direct impact on water temperature would be a significant factor. However, the effects on the currents (which mediate temperature/oxygenation) which indirectly impact temperature, the clouds which impact albedo (and thus temperature), and wind patterns would be the bigger story here.
I don't know what the exact mechanism is, but you don't need to know to see whether global climate change and hurricanes are correlated.
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subego
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Sep 16, 2017, 11:24 PM
 
I'd say by WW II, it's going to be nearly impossible to miss a major hurricane in the Atlantic.

Even if we missed a few, that kind of undercount doesn't seem like enough to just trash 30 years of data, especially with such a small set to begin with.
     
subego
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Sep 16, 2017, 11:25 PM
 
Oh... and now we're back in the accord, but not really, but maybe we'll talk about it.
     
Waragainstsleep
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Sep 17, 2017, 07:28 AM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Oh... and now we're back in the accord, but not really, but maybe we'll talk about it.
Thats the position on everything now isn't it?
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
Chongo
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Sep 17, 2017, 02:42 PM
 
Groupthink?
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reader50
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Sep 17, 2017, 02:54 PM
 
A news article yesterday about this mentioned we haven't done much tangible to diverge from the Paris agreement. I've been thinking about that - wouldn't Congress have to change laws?

The EPA can change some regs, but significant violation would require Congressional action. Since they've mostly argued over the ACA, perhaps Trump's declaration was the only thing that happened. And we're still in the agreement based on actions.
     
subego
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Sep 17, 2017, 03:00 PM
 
That's been his entire administration so far with the exceptions of...

1) Putting Gorsuch on the court
2) Drop-kicking Mexicans
3) Giving the left apoplexy

He's embarrassingly ineffectual.
     
Laminar
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Sep 18, 2017, 02:47 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
That's been his entire administration so far with the exceptions of...

1) Putting Gorsuch on the court
2) Drop-kicking Mexicans
3) Giving the left apoplexy

He's embarrassingly ineffectual.
I made the same argument a while back and Dakar wasn't happy about it. Everything's a media shitstorm but little of value has happened. I'm sure the profits at all of Trump's properties are shooting through the roof, though.
     
The Final Dakar  (op)
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Sep 18, 2017, 03:26 PM
 
I mean, congress controls the laws but the president owns enforcement, and then what happens? Mostly lawsuits. Unless injunctions are issued that means the regs and laws not being enforced might as well not exist while the case winds itself through the courts, usually over years.

Isn't DACA a great example of this? Law says dreamers get deported like everyone else, Obama changed enforcement. Four years later, still not enforced. Congress didn't do shit, either way.
     
The Final Dakar  (op)
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Sep 19, 2017, 04:56 PM
 
Laminar?
     
Laminar
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Sep 19, 2017, 05:32 PM
 
I'm in over my head here.

     
OreoCookie
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Sep 19, 2017, 10:31 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
That's been his entire administration so far with the exceptions of...

1) Putting Gorsuch on the court
2) Drop-kicking Mexicans
3) Giving the left apoplexy

He's embarrassingly ineffectual.
I don't agree, most of the damage is under the surface and will only become apparent with time. The Trump Administration has understaffed many ministries, gutted various organizations of dedicated public servants and has not filled key posts (e. g. the ambassadorships to the EU and Germany). There have been numerous reports that low level diplomats who usually work with the State Department on specific topics literally have no one to talk to. Plus, the US has removed itself from a lot of discussions (e. g. about Climate Change or, potentially, the Iran deal), and therefore isn't a player in a lot of important issues anymore.
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The Final Dakar  (op)
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Sep 21, 2017, 07:02 PM
 
Originally Posted by Laminar View Post
I'm in over my head here.
Originally Posted by Laminar View Post
I made the same argument a while back and Dakar wasn't happy about it. Everything's a media shitstorm but little of value has happened. I'm sure the profits at all of Trump's properties are shooting through the roof, though.
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
I mean, congress controls the laws but the president owns enforcement, and then what happens? Mostly lawsuits. Unless injunctions are issued that means the regs and laws not being enforced might as well not exist while the case winds itself through the courts, usually over years.

Isn't DACA a great example of this? Law says dreamers get deported like everyone else, Obama changed enforcement. Four years later, still not enforced. Congress didn't do shit, either way.
Challenging the ineffectual bit. The EPA, among many departments, has someone running it who is completely against it's purpose. Are you arguing they are ineffectual as they drop lawsuits and fail to enforce regs? Or that the EPA as an entity is ineffectual so it doesn't matter who's running it?
     
Laminar
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Sep 22, 2017, 10:47 AM
 
I'm arguing that it's hard to measure any short term effects and any attempt to do so would probably end up being partisan. Sure in 20 years we'll have a chart of air and water quality and we'll see it start to take a dump in 2017, but it's hard to say with certainty right now.
     
The Final Dakar  (op)
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Sep 22, 2017, 01:33 PM
 
Ok, I can agree that measuring the effect is difficult.

I think one of many reasons every issue is a defcon 1 alert is because of mismatched priorities between authors and audience and that when there's a systematic attack on so many fronts, you have to yell that much more to be heard.
     
 
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