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Shall we play a game?
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The Final Dakar
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Oct 29, 2012, 08:00 AM
 
Since we've moved to the portion of election season where all we can do is wait and throw around polls and tear down those polls or the pollsters or the posters, why not kill some time putting our mouse to virtual ink and posting our best (or worst) guess for the week following?

http://www.270towin.com/

Clicky, pick your state distribution, post here. Since I am a sackless milquetoast, I'll probably won't make my picks til near the weekend. Have fun!
     
ShortcutToMoncton
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Oct 29, 2012, 09:25 AM
 
"Dakar is a sackless milquetoast"

That'll make someone a good sig someday
Mankind's only chance is to harness the power of stupid.
     
The Final Dakar  (op)
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Oct 29, 2012, 09:27 AM
 
It'll be my alt handle.
     
raleur
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Oct 29, 2012, 10:36 AM
 
     
Demonhood
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Oct 29, 2012, 01:54 PM
 
My guess: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=XbE
     
Dork.
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Oct 29, 2012, 04:02 PM
 
     
el chupacabra
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Oct 29, 2012, 07:24 PM
 
All I.. see is liberals, liberals coming at me from everywhere
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=Xux
     
P
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Oct 30, 2012, 02:01 AM
 
I'm somewhere between Raleur and Demonhood. The only difference between them are Virginia and Colorado - they're really both too close to call. If I can decide I'll post something later
The new Mac Pro has up to 30 MB of cache inside the processor itself. That's more than the HD in my first Mac. Somehow I'm still running out of space.
     
The Final Dakar  (op)
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Oct 30, 2012, 06:32 AM
 
Originally Posted by Dork. View Post
Someone caught the reference.
     
Demonhood
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Oct 31, 2012, 11:47 AM
 
I'd like to see someone predicting a Romney win fill this out to show us how they think it'll go down.
     
Shaddim
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Nov 1, 2012, 01:33 AM
 
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bbvO

There will be much anger, wailing, and gnashing of teeth, and that's just from Romney. I'd feel the same if I had to talk to Biden every day.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
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besson3c
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Nov 1, 2012, 02:30 AM
 
Originally Posted by Shaddim View Post
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bbvO
There will be much anger, wailing, and gnashing of teeth, and that's just from Romney. I'd feel the same if I had to talk to Biden every day.
I was wondering what combinations would produce a tie, it looks like you've found one! 538 has Colorado at a 63% chance of going Obama's way though...
     
Dork.
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Nov 1, 2012, 03:06 AM
 
That's a 37% chance for Romney, besson3c, which is better odds than the Bills have against Houston next week.

But how likely is it that Bronco Bamma loses CO, NV, and IA, but wins OH? I'd say if he's on the road to losing those 3, he's probably losing Ohio, too.
     
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Nov 1, 2012, 05:26 AM
 
Originally Posted by Dork. View Post
That's a 37% chance for Romney, besson3c, which is better odds than the Bills have against Houston next week.
But how likely is it that Bronco Bamma loses CO, NV, and IA, but wins OH? I'd say if he's on the road to losing those 3, he's probably losing Ohio, too.
There are a few more reasonable combos that work out to a tie:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bbDl
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bbEf

But honestly, it's quite hard to put together a map that works comes to a tie with any probability of success. Whoever picks up OH has a huge advantage.
The new Mac Pro has up to 30 MB of cache inside the processor itself. That's more than the HD in my first Mac. Somehow I'm still running out of space.
     
The Final Dakar  (op)
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Nov 1, 2012, 05:30 AM
 
Originally Posted by Shaddim View Post
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bbvO
There will be much anger, wailing, and gnashing of teeth, and that's just from Romney. I'd feel the same if I had to talk to Biden every day.
Wouldn't it be more likely Obama would be VP?
     
Dork.
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Nov 1, 2012, 06:46 AM
 
No. In the event of a tie, the new House picks the President, with each state delegation getting one vote. Then, the new Senate picks the VP.
the Republican will likely have the advantage in the House for the President, the Democrat will likely have the advantage in the Senate for VP.
(in fact, if the new senate is tied, Biden will cast the tying vote for himself.)

Admittedly, it's not as clear cut: there will be pressure for the House delegation from a state to pick the candidate who got the most votes in the state, even if the majority of congressman from that state is from the other party.
And if one candidate has a clear national vote majority but the other candidate has the advantage in the House, there will be a lot of pressure for the House to pick the candidate who got the most votes.
     
The Final Dakar  (op)
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Nov 1, 2012, 06:52 AM
 
Originally Posted by Dork. View Post
No. In the event of a tie, the new House picks the President, with each state delegation getting one vote. Then, the new Senate picks the VP.
the Republican will likely have the advantage in the House for the President, the Democrat will likely have the advantage in the Senate for VP.
(in fact, if the new senate is tied, Biden will cast the tying vote for himself.)
Admittedly, it's not as clear cut: there will be pressure for the House delegation from a state to pick the candidate who got the most votes in the state, even if the majority of congressman from that state is from the other party.
And if one candidate has a clear national vote majority but the other candidate has the advantage in the House, there will be a lot of pressure for the House to pick the candidate who got the most votes.
Why wouldn't the senate vote to install Obama instead of Biden as VP?
     
Dork.
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Nov 1, 2012, 07:03 AM
 
Good question. I had assumed their role was limited to resolving the tie in the electoral vote for VP. Obama would not be eligible because he was not one of the folks tied for VP.

But I don't know that for sure. For all I know, they have no such restriction, and could name Donald Trump the VP if 51 senators could agree on that.

Edit: the 12th amendment states that the Senate gets to choose from the two top electoral vote-getters for VP. Sorry, Donald.
     
The Final Dakar  (op)
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Nov 1, 2012, 07:04 AM
 
Alright, here's my prediction: http://www.270towin.com/2012_electio...php?mapid=bbNA

I made my prediction based on aggregator leads, pessimism, and past voting trends. The two predictions I'm most unsure on are Nevada and Ohio – two of the most important states. Nevada's past history makes me wary and with Ohio, well I'd be more confident if theyhadn't been working so ****ing hard to suppress votes all summer.

Edit: For ease of reading:

Obama- 281
Romney - 257

May god have mercy on my soul.
     
Shaddim
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Nov 1, 2012, 04:06 PM
 
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
Wouldn't it be more likely Obama would be VP?
Not if Biden is casting the deciding vote... which seems very possible in that scenario.

Edit: oh, saw the post above, okay, that makes sense, I guess.
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The Final Dakar  (op)
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Nov 2, 2012, 12:43 PM
 
Originally Posted by Demonhood View Post
I'd like to see someone predicting a Romney win fill this out to show us how they think it'll go down.
Bumpage for hope
     
Dork.
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Nov 2, 2012, 03:50 PM
 
If Romney wins this thing, it will look kind of like this:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bfeB

If he wins Ohio, he's probably winning VA and CO too. He would also likely get IA and NH, although he wouldn't need them.
     
subego
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Nov 2, 2012, 03:59 PM
 
Originally Posted by Dork. View Post
If Romney wins this thing, it will look kind of like this:
     
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Nov 2, 2012, 05:47 PM
 
Originally Posted by Dork. View Post
If Romney wins this thing, it will look kind of like this:
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bfeB
If he wins Ohio, he's probably winning VA and CO too. He would also likely get IA and NH, although he wouldn't need them.
That map is a brilliant example of why Ohio is so important. Move Ohio to the blue column, and Obama wins.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bflv

Romney wins all the tossup states except Ohio and Nevada - Wisconsin is apparently so safe Dem that 538 doesn't even list it as competitive right now (they have Obama up by 5.0, which probably puts it over some sort of threshold) - and he still loses the election. This election night can be over quickly: NH is likely to be the first to report, and if Obama wins that, Romney is in serious trouble already. OTOH, if Romney DOES pick up NH, then we almost certainly know that the pollsters have done something wrong (538 Obama up by 3.2 in NH) and that it will be a long night.
The new Mac Pro has up to 30 MB of cache inside the processor itself. That's more than the HD in my first Mac. Somehow I'm still running out of space.
     
Shaddim
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Nov 2, 2012, 05:48 PM
 
In most ways, Romney is a lot more like Clinton (the Democrat hero) than Obama has ever been. With the exception of abortion, they're about the same right down the line, based on the issues. However, with the (R) at the end of his name, he's the enemy, despite what actually matters. It's fascinating.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
- Thomas Paine
     
besson3c
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Nov 2, 2012, 08:53 PM
 
Originally Posted by Shaddim View Post
In most ways, Romney is a lot more like Clinton (the Democrat hero) than Obama has ever been. With the exception of abortion, they're about the same right down the line, based on the issues. However, with the (R) at the end of his name, he's the enemy, despite what actually matters. It's fascinating.
Are you referring to what you think Romney's positions are, or Romney's positions according to his campaign?
     
Shaddim
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Nov 2, 2012, 09:18 PM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
Are you referring to what you think Romney's positions are, or Romney's positions according to his campaign?
The way he actually is, when he isn't sucking up to the Evangelicals.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
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besson3c
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Nov 2, 2012, 09:48 PM
 
Originally Posted by Shaddim View Post

The way he actually is, when he isn't sucking up to the Evangelicals.
How do you know which Romney is the real one? I don't mean that as a zinger against him at all, it's just that people seem to feel that politicians cannot change their minds ever. What if he changed his mind about some things? It is entirely possible he is sucking up like you are saying, but how do we really know what is real?
     
Shaddim
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Nov 2, 2012, 10:16 PM
 
I go by his record, how he governed in Mass. He was a socially moderate, fiscally Right-leaning, Republicrat. That's who he is, at his core. He can try to act like a hardcore all-Right conservative, but that's just to pull in the base. Once he's in office, he'd revert to his nature.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
- Thomas Paine
     
Dork.
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Nov 3, 2012, 03:46 AM
 
But Clinton feels my pain. Romney doesn't even feel his own pain, he has people for that.
     
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Nov 3, 2012, 04:07 AM
 
Originally Posted by Shaddim View Post
I go by his record, how he governed in Mass. He was a socially moderate, fiscally Right-leaning, Republicrat. That's who he is, at his core. He can try to act like a hardcore all-Right conservative, but that's just to pull in the base. Once he's in office, he'd revert to his nature.
So you're saying that once he'd be elected, he'd probably leave the mid-fifties and return to the twenty-first century, leaving behind all the bigots that helped him get in the seat?

That's not an acceptable gamble to voters, IMO.
     
ebuddy
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Nov 3, 2012, 04:27 AM
 
Originally Posted by Spheric Harlot View Post
So you're saying that once he'd be elected, he'd probably leave the mid-fifties and return to the twenty-first century, leaving behind all the bigots that helped him get in the seat?
That's not an acceptable gamble to voters, IMO.
Everyone's a bigot. The term is essentially meaningless.

I think it's easy to tag Romney with the whole "fifties thing" because he's personally somewhat square (a rare and positive trait IMO), but there is absolutely zero about his governing philosophy or anything he's said, done, or written that was any less contemporaneous than what Obama has said or done.

Again, these are our choices; not Ghandi and Romney. Otherwise, good point. Obama pandered to the homophobes in 2008 and it was definitely lost money right? The same bet another time around should be unthinkable.
ebuddy
     
besson3c
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Nov 3, 2012, 08:35 AM
 
Originally Posted by Shaddim View Post
I go by his record, how he governed in Mass. He was a socially moderate, fiscally Right-leaning, Republicrat. That's who he is, at his core. He can try to act like a hardcore all-Right conservative, but that's just to pull in the base. Once he's in office, he'd revert to his nature.
I would be far more comfortable with him winning if this were true and he didn't have to pander to the crazy fringe. Obama doesn't have to pander to the crazy left fringe, because it doesn't really exist as prominently.
     
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Nov 3, 2012, 11:13 AM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
I would be far more comfortable with him winning if this were true and he didn't have to pander to the crazy fringe. Obama doesn't have to pander to the crazy left fringe, because it doesn't really exist as prominently.
Oh reeeeeally? Like how he had a "change of heart" with regards to gays? No, that's not pandering, at all...
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
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Shaddim
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Nov 3, 2012, 11:16 AM
 
Originally Posted by Dork. View Post
But Clinton feels my pain. Romney doesn't even feel his own pain, he has people for that.
The only way Clinton could feel the People's pain would be by sexually assaulting himself.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
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besson3c
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Nov 3, 2012, 11:16 AM
 
Originally Posted by Shaddim View Post

Oh reeeeeally? Like how he had a "change of heart" with regards to gays? No, that's not pandering, at all...
I didn't say that he doesn't pander, I said that he doesn't have to, and I wouldn't say that accepting gay marriage is the property of the fringe left. The moderate left and perhaps even the moderate right is cool with it.
     
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Nov 3, 2012, 11:18 AM
 
Obama doesn't have to pander to the extreme left because the extreme left will choose a moderate or moderate left candidate over an alternative that has to pander to the extreme right.

And, despite what the crazy right wing people in here might say, Obama is a moderate.
     
Shaddim
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Nov 3, 2012, 11:39 AM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
Obama doesn't have to pander to the extreme left because the extreme left will choose a moderate or moderate left candidate over an alternative that has to pander to the extreme right.

And, despite what the crazy right wing people in here might say, Obama is a moderate.
By Canadian and European standards.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
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Nov 3, 2012, 11:43 AM
 
Originally Posted by ebuddy View Post
Everyone's a bigot. The term is essentially meaningless.
Ha ha ha ha ha No.

Everyone has prejudices. A normal person feels shame for their prejudices. A bigot is proud of his prejudices.

Originally Posted by Shaddim View Post
The only way Clinton could feel the People's pain would be by sexually assaulting himself.
Tell us again that you're a Democrat. We all love that story.
     
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Nov 3, 2012, 11:47 AM
 
Originally Posted by Shaddim View Post
Oh reeeeeally? Like how he had a "change of heart" with regards to gays? No, that's not pandering, at all...
Are you sure? I'm pretty sure Obama was pandering to America when he rejected gay marriage in his Presidential bid, and is now admitting his true preferences.
     
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Nov 3, 2012, 11:51 AM
 
redacted
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
- Thomas Paine
     
Shaddim
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Nov 3, 2012, 11:55 AM
 
redacted
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
- Thomas Paine
     
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Nov 3, 2012, 11:56 AM
 
I could have sworn Shaddim said he had me on ignore. I must have been high on maple syrup or something.
     
Shaddim
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Nov 3, 2012, 12:00 PM
 
redacted
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
- Thomas Paine
     
lpkmckenna
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Nov 3, 2012, 12:03 PM
 
I haven't used the ignore feature in years, so no, I had no idea.

The obvious question is: why are you responding to my posts when you want to ignore me?
     
besson3c
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Nov 3, 2012, 12:03 PM
 
Originally Posted by Shaddim View Post


By Canadian and European standards.
And American standards up until recent day. Reagan would not be considered right-wing by today's standards.

Actually, to be more accurate about this, I think what we are seeing now is a fractured Republican party consisting of the vocal extreme right, and moderate/moderate right, but the former has a surprising amount of power and influence. Has there been another time in American history where we were having semi-serious discussions about privatizing everything but the military and road creation, for instance?
     
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Nov 3, 2012, 12:06 PM
 
Originally Posted by Shaddim View Post
By Canadian and European standards.
No, Obama is to the right of the Conservative Party in Canada.
     
besson3c
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Nov 3, 2012, 12:08 PM
 
Originally Posted by Shaddim View Post

Pretty sure? Really? Is "pretty sure" 75% or 80%? How can we tell? Gosh, only he really knows, right?
Oh, that's right, he wasn't pandering to you, just to US citizens. That's right. **** off, moose wrangler.
I'm hoping that we eventually all realize that being American doesn't provide one with keen insights into their politics that they can't get from living elsewhere, since the internet age, at least. Best case scenario you'd have an insight into the politics of your state and perhaps surrounding states, but since you seemed to be put off by my shithole states thread, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that you're not a New Yorker and therefore don't have any particularly keen insight into New York politics that anybody else would lack?
     
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Nov 3, 2012, 12:39 PM
 
Originally Posted by lpkmckenna View Post
No, Obama is to the right of the Conservative Party in Canada.
Sorry, my interest in Eskimo politics is nowhere near your obsession with the USA.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
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Shaddim
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Nov 3, 2012, 12:41 PM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
I'm hoping that we eventually all realize that being American doesn't provide one with keen insights into their politics that they can't get from living elsewhere, since the internet age, at least. Best case scenario you'd have an insight into the politics of your state and perhaps surrounding states, but since you seemed to be put off by my shithole states thread, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that you're not a New Yorker and therefore don't have any particularly keen insight into New York politics that anybody else would lack?
A New Yorker is still an American, as am I. He's just some Canadian goofball.
"Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it."
- Thomas Paine
     
 
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