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You are here: MacNN Forums > Hardware - Troubleshooting and Discussion > Mac Notebooks > Powerbook updates soon? dual core?

Powerbook updates soon? dual core?
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Bushpk9
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Aug 7, 2005, 05:19 PM
 
I was definitly getting a 15inch powerbook on tuesday but talking to people on here and other forums it seems they may update at paris.

then i remembered a while back i saw headlines about low power dual core G5's that could possibly fit in a powerbook.

so now im scared that i get this and in 2 months they update to dual core, which if im not wrong would boost rendering and encoding time.

I plan to do a fair amount of video editing on this powerbook. but cannot get a desktop due to complications. (dual 2ghz G5+20inch=15inch powerbook maxed)<-- in $$.

the only portablility for this pb will be around the house and prob once a week on the road. but on the road for only show not work.
     
osxisfun
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Aug 7, 2005, 05:46 PM
 
i thought the low power g5 was single core and 1.2 or 1.4 meghz.
     
warra
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Aug 7, 2005, 05:47 PM
 
Well I don't know about you, but to me, "soon" is not two months. I'm hoping for the update to come in at most 3 weeks. If you check out macrumors, they even tell you not to buy a powerbook now, "updates soon" : http://buyersguide.macrumors.com.

I don't know about a single core G5 in the powerbook, even it is low power, let alone a dual core G5. One of the main reasons for the switch to intel is IBM's inability to produce a G5 for the powerbook. Then again, a low power G5 is possible; and I think it has been made already, but it undermines the whole reason for switching to intel and for people on low budgets, the mactels might not sell as much if the powerbooks were equipped with a low power G5 in this next update..

My guess is the G4 clock speed will be increased, stock RAM definitely increased, and the GPU changed while still keeping the same amount of VRAM (judging by the iBook update).

My question is about the price. Will it drop with the updates?
PB12 / 1.5 / 80 / 1.25 / SD
     
chabig
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Aug 7, 2005, 05:51 PM
 
Personally speaking, I don't expect any Powerbook updates until they go Intel next year. I think the transition in architectures trumps the usual update schedule.

Even if they do get updated, I could only see the 12" going to 1.67 GHz and the faster models moving to 1.75 GHz? I just don't think there is that much headroom left in the G4 architecture for more than that.

But Apple positions the Powerbooks for power users, who are more likely to wait for Intel. That's why I don't think it will happen.

Chris
     
mgl
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Aug 7, 2005, 06:03 PM
 
Somebody else started this same topic today under a different title, but I'll paste my reply here since I don't think there's a hope in hell that there will ever be a PowerBook G5.

Apple seems to be stretching out the time between new models since it lacks better chips. The last iBook update was very late.

The next update could contain Intel chips, a faster version of the current G4, a newer version of the G4, or the same chip with improved components. And I guess we could add a G5 to that mix.

Most people assume that the first Intel chip for the PowerBook will be the Yonah, a dual-core Pentium M / Centrino successor. It may ship in Q1 but probably not in quantity until Q2. This chip is a 32-bit chip. Therefore, we know two things. One, Apple will never ship a 64-bit G5 PowerBook if they would convert the line to a 32-bit Intel chip a few months later. Two, Intel PowerBooks are not coming in September.

If Apple introduces Intel PowerBooks as early as SF in January, then I think we're done for G4 updates until then. However, January seems mighty aggressive for that. If the update is March, April, or May, then it's almost certain that Apple would have an update between now and then because they're not going to want to go over a year.

The form of that update is a bit difficult to predict. There just isn't much new in the G4 world that Apple could ship now. There aren't faster G4 chips that we know of. Freescale isn't shipping a newer version in quantity at this time that we know of. But, Apple knows more than we do so it's possible.

Another possibility is a minor update to tide us over. They could wide-screen the 12", add the long-rumored HD variant to the 17", and make a few component changes such as improved graphic cards. That would be enough to carry the line through to spring.

My personal guess is that Apple will release a small update like this before the end of the year, probably in the Sep to Oct timeframe. It will include a speedbump if they can manage it, but that may be the least important part of the update. But this is just a guess from reading the same sources as you.
     
madmacgames
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Aug 7, 2005, 06:13 PM
 
If you need the machine now, then by god man buy it now.

If you can wait, then wait...

But just remember that no matter what you buy or when you buy it, something better will always come out after you buy it. You can't avoid that
The only thing necessary for evil to flourish is for good men to do nothing
- Edmund Burke
     
Helmling
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Aug 7, 2005, 06:13 PM
 
what about dual G4's in a laptop?

Nah, I'm dreaming...
     
philbutler
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Aug 7, 2005, 06:24 PM
 
Hi,

I too was in the market for a PB 15 and was going to wait till Paris just to see what happened. I think dreams of a G5 PB will be just that - dreams.

For me, I need portability around the house and occasional trip out. I don't need to sit at a coffee shop and check my email. I do need to take a system on vacations and that kind of thing.

I have almost decided to get a G5 20" iMac with an iLugger II case to make it portable. This is about the same $$ as a 15" PB, but lots more CPU power, hard drive space, screen real-estate, etc.

I am going to sleep on it for another few days and may have one soon.
     
hcorf
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Aug 7, 2005, 07:56 PM
 
any guesses as to what they could do with the video cards in the powerbooks if they update?



and i guess they also want the intel books to have better video cards than the last lot of g4 powerbooks.....so maybe there isnt much they can do.


i had a look at the sony website a minute ago, they dont have any 12 inch notebooks, but the ultra portables all had intergrated graphics from intel, wasnt till it got up to the 14 inchers that they had nvidia 6200 go chips or something in there.
PB 15" 1.5ghz : 1gig : Combo
     
osxisfun
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Aug 7, 2005, 08:00 PM
 
>any guesses as to what they could do with the video cards in the powerbooks if they update?

i posted a thread about this a page or 2 back.
     
SEkker
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Aug 7, 2005, 10:48 PM
 
I just do not expect any major update to the powerbook lineup unless it's been in the offering for some time. They are not going to give us a new motherboard design before the mactels.

Given this and the lack of ANY significant improvement in the mac mini or the iBook lineup that was recently announced, it sure seems like the only changes will be slight incremental updates:

1) slight speed bumps across the lineup; perhaps 1.67 MHz G4s as suggested; maybe a 1.83? chip if Moto has it avail
2) Maybe 1 GB RAM standard on PB17
3) Maybe 128MB VRAM standard on PB15 and PB17

What we WON'T see because it would mean a new motherboard, and because these machines would likely successfully compete in terms of speed with any mactels (dual core or not):
1) No dual G4s
2) No dual-core G4s
3) No G5

Sorry, Apple is going to use the mactel jump to announce their first new jump in laptop speed. After all, this way even apps running under Rosetta will still be faster than running on current G4s. If they made a dual core G4, that machine would probably run many apps faster than even the best mactel machine under Rosetta. It's a marketing thing, but when Apple announced that consumer machines and laptops will go mactel before desktops, SJ was telling us that the next major hardware for the mac mini and laptops will be mactel. At the same time, he was leaving room for dual, dual-core G5s (hardware that is anticipated in the current TIger MacOS) this year -- that's what I think he meant when he said that Apple had some exciting powerPC products in store for this year.

If you need a powerbook, get one -- these current machines are going to be state-of-the-art for awhile yet. That's why I purchased a 15" at work a couple weeks ago.
     
iBorg
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Aug 8, 2005, 01:37 AM
 
I agree with SEkker, in that it's quite unlikely that Apple will have a major update before the transition to Intel processors next summer.

I also think he's correct that Apple will have a minor update for the PowerBook line soon .... very soon. There's way too much time to go before the Intel transition to allow the already long-in-the-tooth PowerBook line to remain stagnant any longer, and with the recent bump to the iBook line, the PowerBook line is the most overdue for an upgrade.

Expect a minor speed bump, more standard memory, maybe a few bells & whistles added, and almost certainly a further price drop. Unless you need the PBook immediately, I'd wait until next month, when this will probably happen (maybe sooner). While it won't make today's PBook obsolete, why pay more and get less, unless you must have it now?



iBorg
     
Randman
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Aug 8, 2005, 01:41 AM
 
A slight bump and more ram is likely considering the iBooks can now take more ram than the PB12. Anything else will wait for the Mactels.

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iBorg
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Aug 8, 2005, 01:43 AM
 
Originally Posted by Randman
A slight bump and more ram is likely considering the iBooks can now take more ram than the PB12. Anything else will wait for the Mactels.
And a further price drop - perhaps the most compelling reason to wait to buy a PowerBook right now.



iBorg
     
Macpilot
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Aug 8, 2005, 02:03 AM
 
Originally Posted by SEkker
1) slight speed bumps across the lineup; perhaps 1.67 MHz G4s as suggested; maybe a 1.83? chip if Moto has it avail
2) Maybe 1 GB RAM standard on PB17
3) Maybe 128MB VRAM standard on PB15 and PB17.
The current "ultimate" 15 has the 128 VRAM & 1 gig Ram, and all 17's have the 128 VRAM.
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emark
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Aug 8, 2005, 02:46 PM
 
this has been a really interesting topic. Less rumor speculation than we’d ususally see—perhaps due to litigation underway??

Given development timeframes, and Apple's need to punch up there laptop line, it is logical to assume that Apple had more than looked at the new Freescale single- and dual-core G4 for PowerBooks. The challenges of shoehorning the G5s into a laptop weren’t secrets.

Especially if one believes that the Intel move was even close to the last minute decision as the media paints it to have been (yes, I know they’ve had an intel version of software always under dev., as well as the roots of the OS...), then one could reasonably guess that the design work had been done to a large extent already.

The 8641 single and dual core G4s meant a new motherboard design, as pointed out above. How difficult the redesign would be for a company with as close ties to Freescale/moto's designs and resources that Apple is I don't have the background to judge. The 8641's added integrated controllers for memory and I/O functions that would require changes, but the changes translate to elimination of components, i.e. simplification of motherboard design.

The 7448 announced simultaneously is an evolution in terms of cpu and bus speed, as well as power but retained pin compatability. Dropping these in existing designs is a no-brainer.

8641s and 7448s use the same "e600" processing core it would seem reasonable to then guess apple would've migrated the powerbooks in this direction, barring the Intel announcement.

So, let's say your in the business of selling laptops, and you have just updated your consumer line, and have a stale pro offering. Back-to-school is underway, but X-mas is around the corner...do you update before waiting 1.5 - 2 years for and update?

Stockholders say “go for it!”. Who cares if the performance in some areas is almost equal to the Yonah based laptops to come? They won’t be competition for them because Apple will stop making them!!! Apple understands and is taking steps to preserve it’s profit as a hardware manufacturer (keeping OS X on Apple hardware, regardless of CPU), I don’t think they’d be dumb enough to pass up a year of vastly increased pro sales w/ better margins than consumer stuff if they had the chance.

Very often when a car is being discontinued a manufacturer will make a final year/half year “special edition” and load it with leather, upper engine, etc. and a special package $$ so they keep units moving and get people to buy now.

That all being said, my gut tells me to expect the 7448 and new video cards as soon as available in quantity. The 8641 would be wonderful, but i think a 5 - 15% probability of coming to fruition.
     
SEkker
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Aug 8, 2005, 02:57 PM
 
The problem is legacy -- Apple won't want to support new versions of the OS on rare motherboard designs. Remember the mac II fx? It was an awesome (and very expensive) multi-CPU design, with microprocessors for the keyboard, graphics, etc. But it did not take Apple too long to realize the installed base was too small to support all of this specialty equipment in future software, so they stopped using these cool accelerators.

Apple is -- and should be -- spending its time making the motherboard AND software work together on the mactels. We will all prefer that in 2-3 years.
     
NeoEsper
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Aug 8, 2005, 03:09 PM
 
The mac mini and ibook are somewhat indications on what we can expect. So I would guess that only minor speed bumps and that's all.
     
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Aug 8, 2005, 03:14 PM
 
As it has been before, apple probably has enough resources to redo all their product lines at the same time, so I see no reason why they couldn't work on a new PPC revision now with a new X86 revision in the works already.
Aloha
     
TFunkadelic
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Aug 8, 2005, 05:14 PM
 
I'd guess a small increase (maybe not even that) in the processor, and that the 512 mb of ram will remain the standard. No one is offering 1 gb of RAM standard on laptops right now.
     
munificent
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Aug 8, 2005, 05:16 PM
 
I don't expect a major update, but I think a minor one is likely in September. There is a $500 off Logic when you buy a PowerBook promotion going on that ends in October, and I wonder if it's designed to keep units moving until an update. So now I have to try to hold out for two months.

The promo: http://store.apple.com/1-800-MY-APPL....7.3.5.1.3.1.3
     
emark
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Aug 8, 2005, 06:51 PM
 
the7448 is PIN-COMPATIBLE. I believe this means NO concern about economies of supporting “rare” legacy hardware. As far as slapping in better components, my understanding there is we’re talking about upgraded drivers for video cards, optical drives, even a screen?...and have nothing to do with supporting other motherboards.

The 7448 path with component upgrades is the minimum we will see. Why wouldn’t Apple want to do this vs. try and further upclock a relatively older, less efficient per watt or per cycle chip iteration?

Apple has used several iterations of G4 chips in its machines without making a huge deal about which G4 it is. They are slick marketers and can make the bumped G4 PBs as big or little a deal as they want. Regardless, they will still carry off making the Yonah-based generation as the must have product of the time.

Apple’s business is driven by hardware sales. This position is widely held by analysts, and is directly supported in their statements and actions to date. Many IT and business analysts argue whether Apple stands more to gain by retaining hardware control or releasing next gen OS to run on any wintel hardware. On this note the logical answer is Apple will only do this when/if they believe that the demand for software sales would outstrip the lost hardware sales business (whether immediately, or even accepting a short term loss in exchange for longer term greater profiability). My hunch is the next 4 years will see this time come to pass.

But back to the powerbooks.

Apple’s announced new hardware. They’ve updated the iBooks considerably. What do you suppose they’ll do from a profitability standpoint to keep sales up on the higher margin PBs until late 06/07? What if the Yonah chips are late too? It isn’t beyond ANY of the major manufacturers to miss deadlines the last couple years, Intel included. The professional products will be a sales disappointment if they aren’t less disparate to the competition, as well as the anticipated future apple products (this becoming a greater effect the closer we get to its release).

I believe for reasons put forth above that the development on mobos for 8641s are likely mostly complete. The Freescale processors have been sampling for prototype/developer projects for months, and are due for full on production in October. If they go w/ an 8614 my guess is it will likely be in the same or a minimally updated form factor so that the “splash” factor of design of the mactels isn’t diminished. That said, I suspect that either version of the 8641 is less likely than the single core 7448s.

Everyone’s a winner with updates. Customers get what they desire, Apple sells significantly more units for a relatively small effort/change.
     
NateEssex
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Aug 8, 2005, 11:54 PM
 
I was going to wait longer to get my 12" PB, but I really need the machine now. I can just hope that my new 12" lasts me to the G5 Powerbooks which I hope will be out next summer. But who really knows?
     
iBorg
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Aug 9, 2005, 02:21 AM
 
Originally Posted by NateEssex
I was going to wait longer to get my 12" PB, but I really need the machine now. I can just hope that my new 12" lasts me to the G5 Powerbooks which I hope will be out next summer. But who really knows?
You have, of course, heard that there will be NO G5 PowerBooks? While we all expect a minor bump to the PBook line shortly (price drop, minor speed bump, more standard RAM), the next major upgade is expected to be the transition to Intel processors, hopefully next summer.

Our dreams of a G5 PBook will remain just that .... dreams .....



iBorg
     
hakstooy
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Aug 9, 2005, 09:52 AM
 
Originally Posted by iBorg
You have, of course, heard that there will be NO G5 PowerBooks?
They made an announcement eh?


     
Randman
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Aug 9, 2005, 11:14 AM
 
Originally Posted by hakstooy
They made an announcement eh?
Yes. When Apple announced the switch to Intel.

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jstein
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Aug 9, 2005, 12:34 PM
 
I must say that this has been one of the most intelligent threads in Macnn in a long time. More logic less flaming this is the reason I initially became a member of this community. To learn and share ideas with the best in the Mac Community.

I think that we all know the rule when it comes to buying a computer if you need one now then buy if you can wait then wait. Now waiting to see what happens at the next MacWorld may not be such a bad idea for the Powerbook line may receive an upgrade or two. It has to happen sooner or later now what that upgrade will consist of is another question right off the back I say improve battery life is strongly needed.

Now with the way the transition is Intel is going to happen one has to reason that the Intel Powerbooks are in the pipeline for the middle of next year or sometime in 2007 depending on your sources. So even if everything stays on course we still are anywhere from 1 year to 2 years before the Intel Powerbooks hit the market more than likely they will be release somewhere in between that time period. This is still quite a long time to wait for a computer if you need one. Also not excluding the fact that the current lines of Powerbooks are 3rd and 4th generations so most of the kinks have been work out. So not only are you purchasing a state of the art machine you are purchasing one that is stable a factor to often overlook when it comes to buying a computer.

I am eagerly awaiting the Intel Powerbooks but I am not going to purchase the 1st generation of that model. In my brief but learning on the go time of being a Mac user one fact has stood out be leery of any 1st generation Apple computer. Also as a wise man once said,” people who like to be the first in line to buy things usually spend a lot of time in the repair line.”
     
NeoEsper
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Aug 9, 2005, 05:02 PM
 
From WWDC they said Mactels will be shipping by this time next year which means June 2006, it is pretty vague statement since it can also mean Mactels can ship out anytime from here to June 2006. I'm pretty sure that we will see a Mactel next year since with Vista and Leopard going head to head next year. 2006 is the year where Apple can gain alot of marketshare. And I would not be suprise to see a whole slew of mactels.
     
osxisfun
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Aug 9, 2005, 05:05 PM
 
Remeber. Intel has stated that yonah is good to go in Jan. 2006.

another update on the roadmap:

http://forums.macrumors.com/showthre...hreadid=142891
     
hakstooy
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Aug 9, 2005, 06:16 PM
 
Originally Posted by Randman
Yes. When Apple announced the switch to Intel.
Hmm. I missed that part of the keynote. You're gonna have to point out where they said that...

Orrr maybe you're using your psychic abilities. You have to remember we don't all have those Rand. So, as far as us mortals go, there ain't been no announcement.

I certainly don't think a PowerBook G5 is an impossibility, maybe not likely, but certainly not a polka-dotted unicorn bent on galactic domination.

It seems to me that it is more likely that we'll be seeing Merom based PBs in the second half of '06 as the first IntelBooks, which would mean 1 year until that happens.

I seem to recall Jobs saying two things:

"I think a lot of you would like a G5 in your PowerBook and we haven't been able to deliver that to you yet."

"So when we meet here again this next time next year, our plan is to be shipping Macs with Intel processors by then, and when we meet here again two years from now, our plan is that transition will be mostly complete."


Now, his "plan to be shipping" IntelMacs by June 2006 seems a somewhat reserved for Jobs if his intention is to be releasing new Intel-based products 6 months before that. This seems to imply that Q2, or thereabouts, is their target for whatever they release first.

I'd imagine that a mini would be the easiest product to redesign, its FF would likely remain identical, with only its MOBO and some internal components changing. A PB would be much more difficult, and I really don't think there is a chance in hell they could design and have the capacity ready to ship an ENTIRELY new PB in six months.

Also, Apple will obviously want to be all over the Merom when it comes out. They have been hyping 64-bit for ages and when the Windows world starts going that way (Vista), they are gonna have to be right there. I don't know the design considerations (electrical, software, physical...spiritual) when moving from the the Yonah to the Merom, but I don't imagine it's trivial.

Not to mention (although it already has been) that if Apple releases the 32-bit Yonah in the interim, they are left supporting an architecture that will only exist for 9-10 (?) months for the next 5 years. That doesn't make much sense. Apple likely wants its whole lineup to be 64 (maybe with the exception of the mini), the iMac already has is and using that as a locus, I can see them not moving backwards in that regard.

If the redesign for Merom is considerable (and I don't know if it is) I don't think we are going to see Yonah-based books because you know Apple is going to want to be right there when the Merom is available.

If the design/engineering work for a 970FX is far enough along (we all know this is some cud Apple has been chewing on for more than a year) then we might see a PowerBook G5. It would sell like crazy, and that's always nice.

It's probably more likely, however, that Apple is going to use a G4 update to hold the line together for the next year (one update in between now and late 2006 is entirely reasonable given the recent revision cycle) be it the 7448, 8641, or whatever. It's a safer and easier solution that, unless they are REALLY far down the G5 road, makes the most sense given every consideration.
     
hypnognosis
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Aug 9, 2005, 08:40 PM
 
Not to mention (although it already has been) that if Apple releases the 32-bit Yonah in the interim, they are left supporting an architecture that will only exist for 9-10 (?) months for the next 5 years. That doesn't make much sense. Apple likely wants its whole lineup to be 64 (maybe with the exception of the mini), the iMac already has is and using that as a locus, I can see them not moving backwards in that regard.
This seems logical but OS X in it's current state isn't remotely 64-bit clean. Not to mention the major reason for most people going 64-bit is just for addressing more than 4gb of memory. I also know many programs that do run 64-bit on many 64-bit clean os'es (netbsd/linux/solaris) can't address more than 4gb when compiled that way. Nor are there any 64-bit device drivers on OS X.

Apple has definitely made a step into the 64-bit arena but they aren't there yet. Nor will they likely give up 32-bit intel support any time soon. I wouldn't be supprised if apple dropped ppc support before 32-bit.
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madmanXwater
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Aug 9, 2005, 09:30 PM
 
Whatever Apple does to the PowerBook line, I hope it's soon! I can't see how people can justify PowerBooks anymore.

I'm writing this on a 17" PowerBook G4 1.33 2G Ram 80Mb HD and I like the machine a lot and OS X is great! But here in Canada this PowerBook is $3400.00 plus $1100.00 for the Ram, that's $4500.00!! I use Macs (since 87') and PCs and run Cubase SX, Office, PhotoShop and the standard Web stuff, all of my software is both Mac and PC. My point is that the performance I get from this PowerBook is not even close to what's I get from the Wintel world. I'm looking at an HP ZD8110 for $1799.00 that just kills this PowerBook. It's a 3Ghz P4 HT, 800Mhz system bus, 512 DDR533 Ram (only $100.00 for 1G, can go to 2Gb), 60G 5400 rpm HD, Dual Layer DVD burner, ATI X600 128Mb graphics, USB 2.0, Firewire, 17" 1440x900 screen!! Did I mention $1799.00!!! I know it runs XP but like most people I know, I spend most of my time in an application, not the OS. So when my Apps run way faster (it actually beat my Dual 2Ghz G5) and cost half the price, the PowerBook is a joke. I've done lot's of test with my projects, opening the same files on both machines with exactly the same setup and settings. Same results every time, the PowerBook isn't even in the same class.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to tell anyone not to buy a PowerBook, but at least for my situation, my next laptop isn't going to be an Apple unless things change drastically for the PowerBook. I'll carry around an extra few pounds and use a less "sexy" machine to get 2-3 times the performance for half the cost. I just can't justify it, no matter how much I like Apple and OS X. The iMac G5 uses the same screen as the PowerBook, has a G5 and a 7200 rpm drive and only costs $1599.00!! I would buy one of these before a PowerBook!!

Mike
     
Randman
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Aug 9, 2005, 09:30 PM
 
One of the stated reasons from Apple in the days post-announcement about the switch was that IBM simply couldn't produce a mobile G5 chip.

There's no way in hell that Apple would go ahead and release one version of a G5 PowerBook then a year from now, come out with a new Mactel model.

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hakstooy
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Aug 9, 2005, 11:48 PM
 
I don't think that its entirely unbelievable. I imagine it hinges on their calculations regarding slagging sales and reduced margins if they keep a G4 or the redesign costs to go dual-core G4 or G5 until they switch to Intel.

If, as I'm assuming, it is not a trivial update from Yonah to Merom, and Apple puts the priority on releasing Merom PBs at launch over Yonah then there will certainly be a redesign in late 2006. Of course, I do not know if this is true, but given the difference in design I imagine it is.

So, would it be more expensive for Apple to limp the G4 into mid-2006 until a redesign for a YonahBook, then releasing a MeromBook in late 2006 or to release a G5 to last until the MeromBook?

Thing is, we don't know, but I would hardly say its conclusive either way.

To be honest, I think the G4 is more likely, but considering it's plateauing performance I think that there is room to argue that releasing a G5 at Paris would be more profitable over the course of a year.
     
mgl
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Aug 10, 2005, 12:24 AM
 
Repeat after me, there will never be a PowerBook G5.

Even if IBM can produce a low-power G5 that doesn't cause 3rd degree burns when placed in a 12" PowerBook, and fab it in sufficient quantity, and make it last at least 2 hours with the existing battery design, Apple would have a short-term gain with some serious long-term implications.

When the Mactels come out, Apple will need for rapid adoption. If the Mactels are about the same speed as a PBook G5, it will just be business as usual. Apple will want the first Mactels to be significantly faster than the last PPC PowerBook. They will want it to be the best-selling PowerBook release in memory.

The current G4 is 1.67. If there's an update this fall and it's a 7448, perhaps we could see a PowerBook G4 1.6 and 1.8 with a 200mhz bus. That would be reasonable. Then we could move to Yonah in the spring and see speeds of 1.67 and 2.16, if I remember correctly, with a bus of 667mhz. This would be a logical path.

If the next PowerBook update were instead 1.6 and 1.8 G5s, moving to 1.67 and 2.16 Yonahs would still be great, but Apple marketing would have to deal with a 64 to 32 bit backward migration. That will never happen. So Apple would have to wait for Merom, the 64 bit follow-on to Yonah, which is tentatively scheduled for Q4 06 or Q1 07.

Now maybe you can pretend that Apple could convince us all to buy PowerBook G5s in 06 and then buy PowerBook Meroms in 07, but you're forgetting the iBook. The Mactel iBook is very likely to ship in Q1 or Q2 06. It will almost certainly have the single core Celeron version of Yonah. There isn't as much info available on these, but many people assume they'll ship at 1.6 to start with and a bus speed of 533, approximately. Now compare an iBook 32-bit 1.6 with a 533 bus to a PowerBook G5 64-bit 1.6 with a 533 bus. Apple would have a terrible marketing problem if they sold these in parallel. The G5 would be better, but it would be hard to convince people of that.

Therefore, if Apple waits for Merom for the Powerbook, I think the iBook has to wait, too. Only if releases PowerBooks with Yonah in a reasonable time after the iBook Yonah Celeron starts shipping, will they be able to effectively market these.

The same problem doesn't occur on the desktop. A dual G5 will still overwhelm even a dual core 32-bit Mac Mini. I can't figure out whether Apple will put a single or dual core Yonah in the mini, but regardless, it would be no match. I bet the iMac will wait for Merom so it can go from 64 to 64. But a dual core Merom, even running at speeds faster than 2.16 depending on what it ships at, would still be no match for a dual G5 running at probably 3ghz by then.

So the marketing problem is on the mobile side, hence I'm saving my pennies for a Yonah PowerBook in Q1-Q2 06.

Of course, if you need one now, buy a G4 now. (Then save your pennies for a Merom in Q1 07.)
     
hakstooy
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Aug 10, 2005, 09:51 AM
 
Well, as you've made clear, it's does seem rather complicated. Which is why is amuses me when people go making categorical statements regarding what will or won't happen.

As for a suitable G5, I remember reading a post from Eug where he listed the max power of the low-voltage FX and it was less than a top-end Yonah. So I don't think the chip is a problem.

As for the iBook to PowerBook relationship, of course there would be a conflict if iBooks had a single core Yonah and the PowerBooks a G5 at the same speed. Which is why I supposed that Apple was trying to get the WHOLE lineup to 64-bit. With Vista, basically every x86 computer will be by sometime in 2007 and Apple loves to be first on the block with stuff like that. Especially when they've been touting it for years.

If the G5 went in the PB, then I'd imagine the 7448 would go in the iBook until the Merom was available.

But again, it comes down to the cost/benefit relationship between the different routes. And we don't know what those are. Yes I agree the G4 is more likely, but I really don't get where this absolutism is coming from, the whole thing seems rather ambiguous to me.
     
osxisfun
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Aug 10, 2005, 10:55 AM
 
>If the G5 went in the PB, then I'd imagine the 7448 would go in the iBook until the Merom was available.


and all if it would be for a product that lasts only for a few months?

Not in my opion... the g4 (except for a slight bum) is dead. the laptop g5 was born dead.

Next spring we start over. Its a whole new ball game.

Apple isn't going to do as merom in an ibook. its all about the single core yonah for the ibook. why would a 64 bit chip going into an ibook so soon?

the abosuleltism is coming from the ticking clock.... in jan. the yonah is ready, i expect apple to anounce something then... a g5 in a laptop? for what 5 months?

Do you know who much invested money would be wasted?

no g5 in a laptop.

ibm failed us and now apple is moving on...
     
hakstooy
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Aug 10, 2005, 12:40 PM
 
Really, Apple isn't going to want a single core Merom in the iBooks? So, with Vista as its motivator, the PC industry starts putting Celeron Merom's in their budget laptops Apple is just ignore that? The company that has sucked at the 64-bit teat for years?

I don't think so.

Apple, marketing guru that it is, is going to want to be at the cusp of the 64-bit transition. Period. All the babble about how it isn't needed is pointless, as soon as manufacturers are able to produce 64-bit products they are gonna hype 'em, and people are gonna want 'em. 32-bit will be old news.

Now, jeez, if I have to state this AGAIN, my head is gonna explode: my whole point rests on whether a redesign from Yonah to Merom is significant. I don't know if it will be, I am not familiar with the process, but looking at it, intuitively it seems as if that may be the case.

Assuming that, and considering the importance of 64-bit when Vista comes out (late 2006) I would imagine that Apple may skip over the Yonah and go straight to Merom. Which leaves essentially 2 options, limp the G4 through 2006 (which is probably the most likely scenario), or put in a G5 that, if released this fall could carry the line through to Merom availability, which could be up to 18 months.

Of course, a G5 is only an option if most of the engineering work has already been done (something I think is likely to have been mostly worked out, especially when considering the low-voltage FX specs we've seen) and Apple decides a retooling for production is worth it considering the increased margins and sales a G% PowerBook would provide.

And again, this is all dependent on my conjecture about Apple skipping the Yonah, which is nothing but conjecture. But so is the assertion that they will use the Yonah (and I would say its wild conjecture to state that a Yonah PowerBook would be released in Jan.), so I'd rather hear why you think they'd use the Yonah immediately, because I'm not so sure they will.
     
iBorg
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Aug 10, 2005, 01:20 PM
 
Originally Posted by osxisfun
in jan. the yonah is ready, i expect apple to anounce something then.
Imagining the possibilities is fun for all of us, but remember what Jobs said 2 months ago:

"So when we meet here again this next time next year, our plan is to be shipping Macs with Intel processors by then, and when we meet here again two years from now, our plan is that transition will be mostly complete."

I don't see any reasonable possibility that we're going to see Intel PowerBooks in January, even if Yonah is ready then. (And even if they're actually shipping then, all notebook manufacturers are going to be clamoring for them - how much priority will Apple's 3% market share command to get these in quantity?) Jobs didn't say January '06, he said "this time next year," i.e. June '06. Everyone has read about Yonah's anticipated introduction of 1/06, so why did Jobs give 6/06 as his timetable for the first Mactels? Could it be that he's skipping Yonah, and planning on the next processor for Apple, perhaps something that we haven't even heard about?

Or, maybe the first Mactels will be just the Mac Mini and iBooks, which could get 32-bit Yonah processors. I find it hard to believe that Apple's professional line PowerBooks would get Yonah, only to turn around and get Merom 6 months later - maybe the first Mactel PowerBooks won't debut until late '06?

Yes, this is all fun speculation, but it seems to me that the timing of Mactel PowerBooks is even less certain than previous timetables for G5 PowerBooks.



iBorg
     
urrl78
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Aug 10, 2005, 03:07 PM
 
If the next version is capable of playing HD then I will consider buying. I like HD. Seems like someone here posted their top of the line PB could play HD flawlessly but I don't know what happened to that thread. Think I'll do some reasearch unless someone here can fill me in...
     
SEkker
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Aug 10, 2005, 03:08 PM
 
Yonah IS the next mobile processor from Intel that will be fabricated using a 65 nm technology. It will come in single (i.e. iBook, mac mini) and dual core (powerbook, iMac) forms. It predates the next generation intel chip set to replace the Pentium line, which happens to be planned as a dual core, 64 bit, 65nm fabricated chip scheduled to debut in about 2 years.

The Apple timetable is perfectly aligned to: 1) make the mac mini and laptops cheaper using current CPUs, etc
2) employ Yonah when it's available in quantities (prototypes should be shipping now) - Intel is like Apple, they like to announce products when they are available to the public, and certain vendors will sell machines with the Intel CPUs the day of the announcement
3) Use the current G5 roadmap of dualcore G5s to be announced this year to bide time before Intel ships their second line of 65nm processors, the replacement for the Pentiums (see above)
4) There will never be a mactel shipped that uses a Pentium chip

Jobs likes to wait for big announcements. You can see him salivating, with him already drafting the following Keynote speeches: 1) Announce dual, dual-core G5s in Sept alongside cool color video ipods 2) Announce Yonah-based mac minis and powerbooks the day Intel announces Yonah, ship in classic Apple style 2-3 months later in quantity (i.e. about June 06) 3) Announce dual, dual core Mactels in Jan 07 alongside Intel's announcement of their newest chip.

If Intel falls behind their timetable, they piss off Dell, HP, Sony as well as Apple. When IBM or Moto fall behind their timetable, they pissed off Apple. Tell me again how the mactel roadmap is less certain than the (now dead) powerbook G5 roadmap?
     
osxisfun
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Aug 10, 2005, 03:14 PM
 
>Really, Apple isn't going to want a single core Merom in the iBooks? So, with Vista as its motivator, the PC industry starts putting Celeron Merom's in their budget laptops Apple is just ignore that? The company that has sucked at the 64-bit teat for years?

budget yonahs before budget meroms.

Why in the world intel make a new line of chip that last 6 months? answer: they aren't yonah will be cheaper

cheaper = ibook

and i don't even _now_ if they are going to make single core meroms..

the 64bit teet was marketing bull for 99.99% of the people. 99.99% of the people will not notice thing when apple sticks with 32bit yonahs/...


>Apple, marketing guru that it is, is going to want to be at the cusp of the 64-bit transition. Period. All the babble about how it isn't needed is pointless, as soon as manufacturers are able to produce 64-bit products they are gonna hype 'em, and people are gonna want 'em. 32-bit will be old news.


Its called "a change of plans" for god sake steve said 3 gig g5s... do you expect apple to still sjip 3 gig g5s?

>If, as I'm assuming, it is not a trivial update from Yonah to Merom, and Apple puts the priority on releasing Merom PBs at launch over Yonah then there will certainly be a redesign in late 2006. Of course, I do not know if this is true, but given the difference in design I imagine it is

why? a new redesign for yonahs PBs would be used again for meroms pbs.

{edited:} Sorry i reread it and i though i came across on too rough. apoligies.

I guess what i am saying is that I believe the intel switch will happen sooner rather than later and thus the time delta would not warrent an inveestment into a PB g5 /.

( Last edited by osxisfun; Aug 10, 2005 at 03:59 PM. )
     
osxisfun
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Aug 10, 2005, 03:16 PM
 
Originally Posted by urrl78
If the next version is capable of playing HD then I will consider buying. I like HD. Seems like someone here posted their top of the line PB could play HD flawlessly but I don't know what happened to that thread. Think I'll do some reasearch unless someone here can fill me in...

NOOOOOOOOOOO! i'll buy you a beer if you don't bring that thread up

I am thinking that since the devs are saying the intels are faster at the same speed as the g5s we will have new pbs next spring that will paly HD without problems...



can you say dual core?
     
osxisfun
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Aug 10, 2005, 03:18 PM
 
Originally Posted by SEkker
Yonah IS the next mobile processor from Intel that will be fabricated using a 65 nm technology. It will come in single (i.e. iBook, mac mini) and dual core (powerbook, iMac) forms. It predates the next generation intel chip set to replace the Pentium line, which happens to be planned as a dual core, 64 bit, 65nm fabricated chip scheduled to debut in about 2 years.

The Apple timetable is perfectly aligned to: 1) make the mac mini and laptops cheaper using current CPUs, etc
2) employ Yonah when it's available in quantities (prototypes should be shipping now) - Intel is like Apple, they like to announce products when they are available to the public, and certain vendors will sell machines with the Intel CPUs the day of the announcement
3) Use the current G5 roadmap of dualcore G5s to be announced this year to bide time before Intel ships their second line of 65nm processors, the replacement for the Pentiums (see above)
4) There will never be a mactel shipped that uses a Pentium chip

Jobs likes to wait for big announcements. You can see him salivating, with him already drafting the following Keynote speeches: 1) Announce dual, dual-core G5s in Sept alongside cool color video ipods 2) Announce Yonah-based mac minis and powerbooks the day Intel announces Yonah, ship in classic Apple style 2-3 months later in quantity (i.e. about June 06) 3) Announce dual, dual core Mactels in Jan 07 alongside Intel's announcement of their newest chip.

If Intel falls behind their timetable, they piss off Dell, HP, Sony as well as Apple. When IBM or Moto fall behind their timetable, they pissed off Apple. Tell me again how the mactel roadmap is less certain than the (now dead) powerbook G5 roadmap?



This post should be made a sticky so we can all be educated as to what the new macs will be like over the next year an 4 months...
     
iBorg
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Aug 11, 2005, 12:33 AM
 
Originally Posted by SEkker
Tell me again how the mactel roadmap is less certain than the (now dead) powerbook G5 roadmap?
LOL!

Because all of the chips that you mention are "guesses" on which chips will be used, in which Apple products, and in which timeframe! Neither you, nor anyone else on these boards knows that "Yonah" will be used in PowerBooks, next January, or ever! Just because chip "A" is available on date "B" doesn't mean that it's the one Apple will use on product "C" at that time!

Who knows - maybe Intel will become more secretive about their upcoming processors, instead of laying out their roadmap 2 years in advance? Remember how Jobs hates his suppliers spoiling his surprise announcements!

As I said, this is all fun, but unless you're hiding under Mr. Jobs desk, we're all in the same boat of conjecture ......

(However, if you are hiding under Jobs' desk, please tell us more!!!!!)



iBorg
     
Randman
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Aug 11, 2005, 01:55 AM
 
You know 6 months from now, we'll revive this thread and laugh at you for thinking a G5 PowerBook was in the cards.

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iBorg
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Aug 11, 2005, 04:24 AM
 
Originally Posted by Randman
You know 6 months from now, we'll revive this thread and laugh at you for thinking a G5 PowerBook was in the cards.
No, .... 6 months from now, you'll look back on what I've written, and see that I've said a G5 PowerBook wasn't going to happen (if it's ME you're referring to, please READ my posts, before lampooning me!) I've said this in MANY threads in this section!

My last post referred to the "speculation as fact" that anyone here knows when the PowerBook will get a Mactel processor, and which type.

Read more .... post less? Peace .....



iBorg
     
Randman
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Aug 11, 2005, 05:06 AM
 
Peace. Till 6 months from now and one of us can laugh at the other's stance. ;p

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mgl
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Aug 11, 2005, 07:51 AM
 
Re: G5 absolutism. None of us are saying we have inside information and know for sure that there will never be a G5 powerbook (if we did, we'd be writing thinksecret columns :-). We're just stating that based on all available evidence, a G5 powerbook is not a logical marketing option.

The only way I could see Apple making a G5 powerbook at this point is if they were going to do at least 2 iterations. So a first generation G5 powerbook now, another in summer 06, and then switch to merom in Nov 06.

Right now, a G4 powerbook is somewhat underpowered compared to its Intel siblings. A G5 powerbook is not some wonder machine. For a lot of tasks, a 1.6 G5 isn't that much faster than a 1.6 G4, although the faster bus will help. So let's pretend that Apple releases G5 powerbooks at 1.6 and 1.8 this fall. By Q1, they'll be competing with Dells stuffed with dual core Yonahs that are running at 1.6 and 2.16. A dual core 32-bit chip running at 2.16 is going to make a 1.8 G5 powerbook look pretty darn anemic. Are we going to go through a year of this until merom ships? I think most people would rather have a dual core 32-bit chip, regardless of the brand name, than a single core 64-bit chip running at the same clock speed or slower.

Yes, it's possible the powerbook won't go Intel until Merom. But right now, all indications are that Powerbooks will get dual core Yonahs and iBooks will get single core Yonahs. Will this happen in January? I think that's rather optimistic and spring is more likely, but we don't really know when Intel will have quantity shipments ready. All we know is it's shipping in Q1, which could mean books in January or it could be Mac Mini in January and books as late as June.
     
iBorg
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Aug 11, 2005, 12:46 PM
 
Originally Posted by Randman
Peace. Till 6 months from now and one of us can laugh at the other's stance. ;p
Randman, I'm sorry, can't you read? Nowhere in any of these forum threads have I said we'd be seeing a G5 PBook! It ain't gonna happen! If you can find a thread where I've said otherwise, show me!

Sheesh!!!!

My contention has been that nobody really knows what Mactel processor is going into the PBook, or when. And anyone who posts a firm timeline of this is guessing, just like the rest of us.



iBorg
     
 
 
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