[The Final Dakar]

I figure our general election thread could stand to be wound down. Polls are starting to close and results starting to come in. Myself, I'm trying to wait a bit until stuff gets sorted out.

[The Final Dakar]

Word out of Florida is Trump beat Romney's numbers in the rural areas, effectively wiping out hispanic early vote totals. If this ends up being true across the board, it's going to be much closer than anticipated.

[The Final Shortcut]

Honestly, you people are crazy.

[The Final Dakar]

Well, yeah.

My precious upshot is giving Trump a 50%+ chance of winning right now.

[Cap'n Tightpants]

Sooooo many celebs are gonna be moving out of the US tomorrow. So many. Good riddance.

Is this an indictment against the polling industry? Sure looks like it.

[The Final Dakar]

Me and my tears will return tomorrow.

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants 

Sooooo many celebs are gonna be moving out of the US tomorrow. So many. Good riddance.

Is this an indictment against the polling industry? Sure looks like it.

Yeah, I think Nate Silver and the like must be reassessing their careers and income streams.

[Laminar]

What the ****.

[Cap'n Tightpants]

Look at the plus side, Dems have ammo for the next 4 years. (Without congress, the senate, or the presidency that's about all they have...)

[P]

Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants 

Sooooo many celebs are gonna be moving out of the US tomorrow. So many. Good riddance.

If we're making wishlists... we could take a few comedians here in Sweden. Political satire seems a lost art right now.

Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants 

Is this an indictment against the polling industry? Sure looks like it.

Yes, it is. Too many poor polls, not enough good ones, people in swing states getting tired of answering them... They will be figuring this out for years, but I guess it comes down to mostly large groups of voters (working class whites in the Midwest mainly) moving much quicker and further than predicted.

To the defense of 538, they at least had the caveat that this was a very uncertain election. Out of the 50 states + DC, there were 48 that had more than 1% margin in the polls. 45 of them went the way predicted - the misses were Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and possibly Michigan (not called yet as a type this).

But in all honesty, there are bigger things to figure out right now.

[subego]

Does 538 need to be defended? Looks to me they took what they were given and did the best job they could, which appears to be way better then everyone else.

[Waragainstsleep]

I heard one theory that people were too ashamed to admit who they were voting for. Why would you vote for someone you're ashamed of?

[BadKosh]

Maybe thats why there weren't very many Hillary signs around.

[subego]

Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep 

I heard one theory that people were too ashamed to admit who they were voting for. Why would you vote for someone you're ashamed of?

It probably isn't so much about shame as it is not wanting to be called a ignorant, racist, misogynist, homophobic, deplorable, fascist Nazi.

[P]

Clinton is currently ahead in the popular vote count. We'll see if it lasts, but if there is one thing I don't want it is another EC-popular vote split.

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by subego 

Does 538 need to be defended? Looks to me they took what they were given and did the best job they could, which appears to be way better then everyone else.

I'm not sure being less wrong is an accomplishment here. After all, Nate's possibility was a Trump squeaker, not this.

[The Final Dakar]

So yeah, I'm on shock this morning. It feels a little surreal. Duh, polls were wrong, but the why is question.

The first couple things that come to mind: Shy Trump voters. I guess they were real? They weren't a thing in the primary, but here we are.
The Silent Majority: Did Trump get apathetic unlikely voters back in fold?
Did nevertrumpers come back to the fold?
Did wives really split from their husbands?

That's all I got, at the moment.

The part that really irks me is the pseudo-scientific bullshit of rally sizes, yard signs, and ground-game-in-our-hearts live for another day.

But that alludes to the most shocking thing to me: Trump won with minimal advertising, minimal ground-game (AFAIK) and ****ing rolled Hillary.

[The Final Dakar]

Also, Hillary lost like a dog.

[The Final Dakar]

So, did the weed props make it?

[subego]

I believe they did. At least in California.

[The Final Dakar]

Harry Enten seems like a good follow on twitter right now. Not gonna find any comfort, libs, but you may find an answer or two.

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by P 

Clinton is currently ahead in the popular vote count. We'll see if it lasts, but if there is one thing I don't want it is another EC-popular vote split.

The difference between this and 2000 is, Trump clearly won. No 'what ifs' here, no SCOTUS meddling.

[Chongo]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

So, did the weed props make it?

AZ failed.

[andi*pandi]

MA legalized it for personal use.

[...deleted...]

[...deleted...]

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by And.reg 

Hillary got Trumped!

Hillary got Trumped!

Hillary got Trumped!


I'm glad that my prediction was wrong.

Can't wait to see him take charge.

Oh, so now you have a voice?

[The Final Dakar]

Is there a single reason people think Hillary lost for? (That doesn't also apply to Trump)

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

Is there a single reason people think Hillary lost for? (That doesn't also apply to Trump)

Yes, she didn't promise that she would bring rust/steel belt jobs back, whereas Trump basically did.

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

Yes, she didn't promise that she would bring rust/steel belt jobs back, whereas Trump basically did.

Why would they believe her?

[Jawbone54]

I couldn't be more stunned by the outcome. I figured it would be close, but I didn't imagine Trump would actually win.

My Twitter timeline was split nearly 50/50 between Trump and Clinton supporters. I think one of the more poignant moments of the night came when I read one of the comic artists I follow who said something along the lines of, "I guess what stuns me is that my social media sphere isn't reflective of the general public. The world I live in is nothing like I thought it was."

No kidding. We all live inside our own little bubbles. This election proved that, but everyone still seems shell-shocked.

[andi*pandi]

why did they believe him?

[Jawbone54]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

Is there a single reason people think Hillary lost for? (That doesn't also apply to Trump)

A single reason? Maybe. The emails, political status-quo, and such hurt her, but I think as divisive as Trump is, he doesn't seem disingenuous. He's brash, inconsistent, temperamental, and divisive, but there is an authentic nature to his public interactions.

Hillary seems like she's lying 99% of the time. I don't think we've ever seen the real Hillary (though the Secret Service allegedly has). That contrasts poorly next to Trump with people who feel tired of being lied to.

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by Jawbone54 

A single reason? Maybe. The emails, political status-quo, and such hurt her, but I think as divisive as Trump is, he doesn't seem disingenuous. He's brash, inconsistent, temperamental, and divisive, but there is an authentic nature to his public interactions.

Hillary seems like she's lying 99% of the time. I don't think we've ever seen the real Hillary (though the Secret Service allegedly has). That contrasts poorly next to Trump with people who feel tired of being lied to.

He constantly lies, but he's genuine?

At this point I'm starting to think it's simply he told people want they wanted to hear, and Hillary didn't.

[Chongo]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

Is there a single reason people think Hillary lost for? (That doesn't also apply to Trump)

Billing her election as "Obama's third term"?

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

Why would they believe her?

Well, if she had a compelling strategy the only doubt would be her commitment to following through on the plan, but that is a doubt with every politician.

Her plan (I believe) was promotion of more green/high-tech jobs, making college more affordable, and perhaps helping defray the costs of healthcare so that people aren't tethered to dead end jobs. This is probably the best any politician can really do, but it was certainly not as attractive as what Trump was promising.

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by Jawbone54 

A single reason? Maybe. The emails, political status-quo, and such hurt her, but I think as divisive as Trump is, he doesn't seem disingenuous. He's brash, inconsistent, temperamental, and divisive, but there is an authentic nature to his public interactions.

Hillary seems like she's lying 99% of the time. I don't think we've ever seen the real Hillary (though the Secret Service allegedly has). That contrasts poorly next to Trump with people who feel tired of being lied to.

I think this narrative did gain traction, but I maintain that the reality is that Hillary's lying is not beyond the pale for a US politician. She's been around a long time though, so there is a lot of dirt on her.

The problem is "I don't lie an unusual amount" is not setting the bar very high, and that is far less attractive than Trump's clean slate in politics. Perhaps Clinton could have made a better case as to how he lies in business though.

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by Chongo 

Billing her election as "Obama's third term"?

I think most people still like Obama just fine. His polls reflect this.

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by Chongo 

Billing her election as "Obama's third term"?

Doesn't his approval rating undermine that?

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

The problem is "I don't lie an unusual amount" is not setting the bar very high, and that is far less attractive than Trump's clean slate in politics. Perhaps Clinton could have made a better case as to how he lies in business though.

I think you may have stumbled onto something here. I've always had a personal philosophy that the reason we don't see senators in the oval office is they have long histories to answer for, compared to governors who usually run. Obama was an exception, but he was also a first term senator.

Hillary has been involved in politics on the national stage since the 90s. I wouldn't point to it as the factor, though.

Counterpoint: Trump may not have held office but he's been in the national spotlight just as long. Hence the parade of oppo and quotes. His flip-flops didn't damage him however. Instead we were told "He was a Democrat then".

IDK

[The Final Dakar]

I think this might be a fun exercise for liberals: Find all the things Trump promised that you agree with and list them here. We can see how he does (Assuming the forums last that long).

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

I think this might be a fun exercise for liberals: Find all the things Trump promised that you agree with and list them here. We can see how he does (Assuming the forums last that long).

What did Trump offer as far as specific policy proposals?

[Laminar]

I think it'd be fun to start a thread about bipartisan, measureable goals of what a successful Trump presidency would look like, then stick with it over the next four years. Whether that's GDP or unemployement or gas prices or US currency value or whatever - come up with a measure now and stick with it, without moving goalposts and blaming any previous/future administrations for the outcomes.

[Laminar]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

What did Trump offer as far as specific policy proposals?

Here's Everything Donald Trump Has Promised to Do on His First Day as President | Mother Jones

On his first day:

"Repeal every single Obama executive order." (He has also pledged more specifically to "eliminate every unconstitutional executive order.")
"Repeal Obamacare." (On Trump's campaign website, he's less bullish, promising only to "ask Congress" on day one to repeal Obamacare immediately.)
"End the war on coal."
"Begin swiftly removing criminal illegal immigrants from this country." (More specifically, Trump has promised to do this in his "first hour" in office, "day one, before the wall, before anything.")
"Begin working on an impenetrable, physical, tall, powerful, beautiful, southern border wall."
Meet with Homeland Security officials and generals to begin securing the southern border.
"Notify all countries that refuse to take back dangerous illegal immigrants who have committed crimes in this country that they will lose access to our visa programs if they continue to do so."
Convene his top generals and inform them they have 30 days to come up with a plan to stop ISIS.
Fix the Department of Veterans Affairs.
Call the heads of major companies who are moving operations oversea to inform them that they'll face 35 percent tariffs.
"Contact countries and say…'Folks, we love protecting you, we want to continue to protect you but you're not living up to the bargain'…They're not paying what they're supposed to be paying—which is very little, by the way."
"Defend the unborn."
"Withdraw from TPP."
"Start taking care of our…military."
Suspend Syrian refugee resettlement.
"Notify our NAFTA partners of my intention to renegotiate the deal."
"Designate China as a currency manipulator."
"Direct every agency in government to begin identifying all wasteful job-killing regulations, and they are going to be removed."
"Get rid of gun-free zones [in] schools" and "military bases"—which would require repealing a 25-year-old federal law. ("My first day, it gets signed, okay? My first day. There's no more gun-free zones.")
"Ask Congress to pass 'Kate's Law'—named for Kate Steinle—to ensure that criminal aliens convicted of illegal reentry receive strong mandatory minimum sentences."
Learn the difference between Hezbollah and Hamas.

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by Laminar 

I think it'd be fun to start a thread about bipartisan, measureable goals of what a successful Trump presidency would look like, then stick with it over the next four years. Whether that's GDP or unemployement or gas prices or US currency value or whatever - come up with a measure now and stick with it, without moving goalposts and blaming any previous/future administrations for the outcomes.

That works too. He said he'd be against the ATT/Time warner merger. I'm also all for fixing the VA system.

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by Laminar 

Here's Everything Donald Trump Has Promised to Do on His First Day as President | Mother Jones

On his first day:

A number of these are vague and/or rhetorical, but...

[Jawbone54]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

He constantly lies, but he's genuine?

I didn't say it makes sense. It's perception.

In an age where everyone prepares carefully scripted, half-hearted apologies for everything, even his refusal to apologize over mistakes somehow became an admirable quality. It's a STRONG anti-political correctness backlash that we're seeing.

I don't believe it's genuine racism or even nationalism that motivated his voters (although there were surely some). The underlying emotion is pent-up rage spilling in every direction. They're tired of being marginalized, ignored, overlooked, and looked down upon. He tapped into that anger, he won, and now every SJW on earth is suffering from PTSD.

At this point I'm starting to think it's simply he told people want they wanted to hear, and Hillary didn't.

In that case, progressives must have been wrong about what they thought voters wanted to hear. They had just as long to put their message out there — Americans just didn't want to hear it anymore. And honestly, that just seems to be what we do every eight years, on average.

Originally Posted by besson3c 

I think this narrative did gain traction, but I maintain that the reality is that Hillary's lying is not beyond the pale for a US politician. She's been around a long time though, so there is a lot of dirt on her.

Obama didn't come in with the decades of deceitful baggage. That's why he's going to be leaving office with generally favorable personal reviews, even if many are tired of his administration. I may disagree with Obama on many issues, but I don't think he's evil — I just think he's often wrong. Hillary? She just feels evil.

The problem is "I don't lie an unusual amount" is not setting the bar very high, and that is far less attractive than Trump's clean slate in politics.

Yep. Exactly.

Voters wanted someone unstained. The fact that I'm using "unstained" in regards to a man like Trump just tells you how soiled the entire political machine has become.

[Jawbone54]

I thought this was a really good opinion piece on CNN: Liberals, chill out about Trump victory (Opinion) - CNN.com

He will be shown respect. He will also be scrutinized. The media will be on his back 24/7, and he'll give them plenty to report. The Republicans will try to bend him to their will. Although Paul Ryan expressed his thanks to Trump for the GOP control of Congress, the reality is that they have subtly different agendas and will likely fight over much.

The courts will frustrate any overreach. The 2018 midterms will cast judgment. Those who compare this situation to Germany in 1933 are not only grossly exaggerating, to an offensive degree, but they misunderstand the nature of Germany at that time. It had barely tasted democracy, its institutions were weak. America's are strong.

That and Trump simply isn't Hitler. He is moderate on many areas of policy, such as gay rights, and flexible on others, such as the economy. And several of the issues he ran and won on are serious issues that he was right to address.

EDIT: I didn't feel like this was worth me posting a third time in a row without interruption, but my wife is of the opinion that Ivanka's contribution during the RNC is being overlooked, and that it was the moment that she (my wife) softened on Trump just a tiny bit. The girl nailed her speech out of the park, and probably has an influential future ahead of her. She's clearly the most intelligent of the Trump kids.

[OAW]

Some general observations as the post-election numbers come in ....

- Trump won 58% of the white vote. Compared to McCain's 55% and Romney's 59% he performed like a typical GOP presidential candidate. At the same time at this point Trump has received approximately 1.7 million LESS votes than Romney. So the notion that Trump somehow mobilized white voters in droves is simply not supported by the numbers. Nor is the notion that Trump's blatantly xenophobic, bigoted, and misogynistic campaign rhetoric was prompting some sort of massive white backlash. In fact, these factors may have actually hurt Trump with white voters overall ... just not enough to jeopardize the natural advantage any GOP candidate has with this demo.

- Turnout among African-Americans, Latinos, and millennials was down ... especially in battleground states. I haven't seen definitive figures but news reports are seem to be consistently saying this. These were key demographics within the Obama Coalition. To what degree, if any, GOP voter suppression efforts played in that development remains to be seen. But regardless, Clinton underperformed Obama by 5-6 percentage points with these demos.

- The anticipated upswing for Clinton among women voters never materialized. While she won the female vote overall Trump won the white female vote 53% - 43%. Clinton actually underperformed Obama by 1 percentage point with white females.

- The"Bradley Effect" appears to have been in full force. The major polls predicted Clinton's vote totals quite accurately. OTOH, they were off when it came to Trump's vote totals by 2-3 percentage points. This suggests that at the end of the day a clear majority of white voters supported the GOP candidate at the usual levels. But some were unwilling to indicate this to pollsters given Trump's baggage.

- Bottom line? This seems to be more of a case of the Obama Coalition dropping the ball than some sort of massive wave of support for Trump. Had those voters who supported Obama turned out and supported Clinton at the same levels as they did in for him 2012 she would have trounced Trump just as Obama did to Romney. Or if the "glass ceiling" and "sexism" factors had actually resonated with white women ... especially younger ones ... enough to affect their actual vote then we would be having a very different conversation right now. Whether this was due to Clinton being a fatally flawed candidate or if certain Obama supporters were simply not convinced a voter for her was essentially a vote for a "third time" of Obama POLICIES will be the subject of much debate among Dems for the foreseeable future.

OAW

[P]

I think the freak outs are mostly because of the insecurity. We know that Trump cannot possibly do all that he promises without running an insane deficit, so what will he actually do? The things he has promised run the range from left to right, so he could act anywhere along that range by simply picking which of his promises to implement.