[chris v]

Originally Posted by chris v 

Any fool that can scrape together $1000.00 cash needs to plunk it all down on AAPL at exactly 8 AM tomorrow.

BUY! BUY! BUY!

Okay, nevermind, it's a full-blown market meltdown! SELL1! SEL1L! SELLLLLL!!!!!!

[hyteckit]

Originally Posted by chris v 

Okay, nevermind, it's a full-blown market meltdown! SELL1! SEL1L! SELLLLLL!!!!!!

Haha... AAPL selling at $126. Close to my $125 estimate today.

[turtle777]

Hey ya'll, let's catch some falling knives, shall we ?

-t

[hyteckit]

Looks like the selloff might be cooling off for today. AAPL might not hit $125 today afterall.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

Dude, why don't you listen to me and set the buy price at $125. It's at $127 now. It just might hit $125 today.

Dude, why don't you just let him do whatever he wants with his money? He's not killing kittens or anything.

It might just bottom out today at $126. Last I checked, none of us had infallible crystal balls.

EDIT: I see you already answered your own post.

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

Looks like the selloff might be cooling off for today. AAPL might not hit $125 today afterall.

Anyways, the rest of the week will prove interesting. The analysts are all over the map on this one.

[Person Man]

Originally Posted by Lateralus 

So the selling will continue. And AAPL cannot and never does battle back up during bad days for the market. It's too susceptible to market emotion.

Yes, but for those of us who wanted to buy AAPL several times before and never had the money until now, it's a GREAT buying opportunity. I know that if I buy now, I'm going to be holding it for a LONG TIME.

I just made some changes to my 401k last week. Did I sell any of my current holdings? Heck no. My current holdings are staying put because I've got another 30 years before I need it. I made some changes to future allocations to take advantage of the current situation. I didn't make huge changes to future allocations, and I'll probably stay in balance overall, but I'll be directing less of my allocations to the target value fund.

The target value fund has been a great place to put my money while I learn how to invest on my own. Let them manage 75% of my funds while I experiment with 25%. Once I'm confident that I can get my 25% to earn a greater rate of return than the target fund, I'll reduce my exposure to the target fund.

[Lateralus]

I wish I could turn off the part of my brain that insists on checking the market every hour of every day of every week.

I want to wake up tomorrow, check my portfolio, and find that it's March all of a sudden.

[Dark Goob]

My girl is in our bed crying right now because her Apple stock (on which she thought she had made several grand) is to the point where if it goes down any farther she will start losing money.

This was how she was *hoping* to pay off some of her college loans, was by making money in the stock market. Her $60,000 in college loans.

So not only will we not be able to buy a house like we want to, because they won't lend to people like us anymore because of all the retards who couldn't pay their bills, but also, now I have to not get laid for several weeks.

Idiots. Who runs these banks anyway?

Was there someone actually thinking about stuff when we sent all our jobs to China and India??? Seems to me the only thing they were thinking about was SMOKING CRACK.

-=DG=-

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Dark Goob 

My girl is in our bed crying right now because her Apple stock (on which she thought she had made several grand) is to the point where if it goes down any farther she will start losing money.

This was how she was *hoping* to pay off some of her college loans, was by making money in the stock market. Her $60,000 in college loans.

So not only will we not be able to buy a house like we want to, because they won't lend to people like us anymore because of all the retards who couldn't pay their bills

Well, you don't make the money until you actually cash the stock in.
Similarly, you don't lose the money until you actually cash the stock in.

A lot of people who *needed* the money sooner rather than later cashed in when AAPL was high. OTOH, if you're in a situation where you can wait 10 years before cashing in, then you may as well hold onto it and ride out the storm.

now I have to not get laid for several weeks.

Idiots. Who runs these banks anyway?

Was there someone actually thinking about stuff when we sent all our jobs to China and India??? Seems to me the only thing they were thinking about was SMOKING CRACK.

Well, if you shop at Wal-Mart, or Apple, or whatever and you're not willing to pay a premium for domestic manufacturing, then it's you who is sending all the jobs to China and India.

Originally Posted by Lateralus 

I wish I could turn off the part of my brain that insists on checking the market every hour of every day of every week.

I want to wake up tomorrow, check my portfolio, and find that it's March all of a sudden.

Heh. When I started my job I had the option of a pension plan vs. managing my own stock portfolio. I chose the pension plan.

I guess the good thing about the recent drops in the market is that all the people bragging about their portfolios and telling me how pension plans were too restrictive have now all shut up.

[olePigeon]

I was almost worried bout about my 401(k), but since I'm not going to retire for another 30 years, I'll worry about it then. Think long term...

[hyteckit]

Amazing. Dow is in the green. AAPL is above $132. Selloff was quick. Recovery was quick.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by olePigeon 

I was almost worried bout about my 401(k), but since I'm not going to retire for another 30 years, I'll worry about it then. Think long term...

Basically what I was thinking by going with a pension plan. (It's a huge pension group which is conservatively managed and has stayed in the black through tough times, so it's a safe one.) I might lose out on potential gains vs. an aggressively managed portfolio, but OTOH, it's something that I don't have to worry about.

However, for my own portfolio outside the pension plan I still like to keep a close eye on things. Sometimes it's a mistake to just forget about stuff you have in there. Not all companies grow their stock (or dividend) value as fast as the average, so it makes sense to pay attention and weed out the underperformers once in a while.

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

Amazing. Dow is in the green. AAPL is above $132. Selloff was quick. Recovery was quick.

So I guess you didn't get any AAPL then?

Still $132 though. I won't be happy until it hits $165.

[Shaddim]

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

Dude, why don't you listen to me and set the buy price at $125. It's at $127 now. It just might hit $125 today.

I'm looking at 1-3 years, not 1-3 weeks (or even months). My shares, at this price, are a great investment.

[Shaddim]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Dude, why don't you just let him do whatever he wants with his money? He's not killing kittens or anything.

It might just bottom out today at $126. Last I checked, none of us had infallible crystal balls.

Doesn't matter, I almost always buy on the way down and sell on the way up. I can't remember the last time I bought at the "rock bottom" and it's a bad habit to get into.

Buy where you like and then sit, after a few years it makes for hefty returns.

Originally Posted by olePigeon 

I was almost worried bout about my 401(k), but since I'm not going to retire for another 30 years, I'll worry about it then. Think long term...

There ya go, the voice of reason.

[hyteckit]

Originally Posted by Eug 

So I guess you didn't get any AAPL then?

Still $132 though. I won't be happy until it hits $165.

Nope. AAPL didn't hit $125, so the buy did not get trigger. Besides I don't have tons of cash lying around like Shaddim does. For me, it would be 10 shares, not 300.

I think AAPL will end the day around $132. I expect more selloffs the next 2 weeks unless we have some really good news.

[andi*pandi]

yet, when you see your 401k lost as much last quarter as you put into it, it's a bit depressing.

[hyteckit]

Man, today's stock market was a freaking roller coaster. Fun ride and quite exciting. Never thought playing stocks would be this fun. Maybe I should start day trading.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

Man, today's stock market was a freaking roller coaster. Fun ride and quite exciting. Never thought playing stocks would be this fun. Maybe I should start day trading.

Heh. Famous last words.

And I thought "year-trading" was bad enough. (The last time I bought AAPL, it was with the intent to keep it less than a year.)

[Shaddim]

Day trading requires brass testes. I have strong nerves when it comes to investing, but I know that I couldn't handle doing that stuff every day. For me it's best just to buy at a good price and sit on it until it reaches where I want to be.

[Jawbone54]

This is why I keep balking every time I think I'm going to dip into the stock market. I have an addictive personality, and I think I'd be consumed by this crap.

And I'd likely end up with even less money than I have now.

[Nodnarb]

I think I may actually bite the bullet on AAPL today. I don't think it's going to drop TOO much more, and by the end of the day today it started going up quite a bit compared to where it was down too. And regardless of the current market situation, within a year, 2, or 5, AAPL will be HUGE for reasons we all know (iPhone, mac marketshare, etc.).

(Someone tell me they agree with me so I can work up the nerve to actually buy in!).

[hyteckit]

Nodnarb,

Apple's core market is solid. With iPhone, music, and movies sales, it's stocks can only go up in the long term. Apple is going to be a big @ss media conglomerate. Apple is very diversified and can withstand a recession. During a recession, consumers continue buying music and movies.

[Jawbone54]

Buy it. The profits you make will clear your debts. It might even knock out a huge portion out of what you owe on your house.

You'll become more popular and the cable news networks will do a story on you.

[Kerrigan]

It's odd how people are talking about how we are already in a recession. I wonder if such people even know what a recession is-- the fact is that a recession is a steep drop in GDP growth, which may or may not result in negative GDP growth. The last GDP stats I looked at were pretty strong (4.9% for Q3 of 2007). Since the end of the tech bubble recession, the economy has grown at a pretty decent rate (the highest was 7-point-something percent in 2003, the same type of growth which occurred during the end of Clinton's presidency.

The popular media (which is the domain of journalism majors, not economics majors) has a poor grasp of the functioning of the economy, and tends to scare people with shoddy articles about China, the balance of trade, exchange rates, etc. Yes, it is possible that the economy could tank (there is always that risk) but the US economy is not nearly as bad off as some people would have you think.

[Dakar the Fourth]

Originally Posted by Jawbone54 

Buy it. The profits you make will clear your debts. It might even knock out a huge portion out of what you owe on your house.

You'll become more popular and the cable news networks will do a story on you.

Then you'll go through a bad divorce, the public will turn on you, you'll lose your kids, and before you know it, you're sleeping at the Olsen's place.

[Jawbone54]

Wow...

"Wow..." in white

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by Kerrigan 

It's odd how people are talking about how we are already in a recession. I wonder if such people even know what a recession is-- the fact is that a recession is a steep drop in GDP growth, which may or may not result in negative GDP growth. The last GDP stats I looked at were pretty strong (4.9% for Q3 of 2007). Since the end of the tech bubble recession, the economy has grown at a pretty decent rate (the highest was 7-point-something percent in 2003, the same type of growth which occurred during the end of Clinton's presidency.

The popular media (which is the domain of journalism majors, not economics majors) has a poor grasp of the functioning of the economy, and tends to scare people with shoddy articles about China, the balance of trade, exchange rates, etc. Yes, it is possible that the economy could tank (there is always that risk) but the US economy is not nearly as bad off as some people would have you think.

So you are telling us everything is fine, no worries ?

-t

[Kerrigan]

Did you read what I wrote? I doubt it, your one line response suggests a TL;DR mentality. Exactly what I would expect from MacNNers who think the entire economic world revolves around what Apple's stock is doing, or the latest bit of sensationalist news reported in the War Lounge.

[Eug]

No worries? Far from it. However, it's also true that the use of the "R" word is a premature... considering the US isn't actually in a recession yet.

That said, even "just" a sharp drop in economic growth (with still positive growth) will feel almost like a recession to some people. You can be sure that a lot of those real estate speculators aren't going to be buying new cars every 2nd year anymore.

[tie]

Neither of you is right. The US may or may not be in a recession, many (most?) think that we probably are in a recession. "A recession is a decline in a country's gross domestic product (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year" (wikipedia), so it takes two quarters to know whether a recession has started or not. (In fact, this wikipedia definition is a simplification of what the NBER actually does.) When someone says "we are in a recession," they are really making a prediction of the GDP in the future. So in 2001, I don't know that we could say for sure that we were in a recession until after it was over.

Kerrigan, while we had 7-point-something percent GDP growth for one quarter of 2003, the GDP growth for 2003 was only 2.5%. The highest growth rate since 2000 was 3.6%, in 2004. Contrary to what you claimed---"... the same type of growth which occurred during the end of Clinton's presidency"---every year from 1996 to 2000 had higher growth rates.
1990: 1.9
1991: -0.2
1992: 3.3
1993: 2.7
1994: 4.0
1995: 2.5
1996: 3.7
1997: 4.5
1998: 4.2
1999: 4.5
2000: 3.7
2001: 0.8
2002: 1.6
2003: 2.5
2004: 3.6
2005: 3.1
2006: 2.9
2007: 0.6, 3.8, 4.9 (first three quarters)
link

[Eug]

Originally Posted by tie 

Neither of you is right. The US may or may not be in a recession, many (most?) think that we probably are in a recession. "A recession is a decline in a country's gross domestic product (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year" (wikipedia), so it takes two quarters to know whether a recession has started or not. (In fact, this wikipedia definition is a simplification of what the NBER actually does.) When someone says "we are in a recession," they are really making a prediction of the GDP in the future. So in 2001, I don't know that we could say for sure that we were in a recession until after it was over.

Most of the analysts I've come across don't think we're in a recession... yet. But many seem to think we're pretty close.

However, I will concede that not everyone agrees.

EDIT:

I said "we", but I really mean "you", referring to the US. Canada is nowhere near a recession... yet. However, if the US truly gets into a recession funk, Canada will definitely suffer, because we're so dependent upon our trade with the US.

[Jawbone54]

You're all wrong.

The economy changes based on my mood. If you all care about the economy so much, you should be really nice to me.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by Eug 

No worries? Far from it. However, it's also true that the use of the "R" word is a premature... considering the US isn't actually in a recession yet.

Yes, we very well could be.
You won't know you were in a recession until 6 months AFTER the fact.

So how do you know we won't have a real GDP decline this quarter ?

-t

[Eug]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

Yes, we very well could be.
You won't know you were in a recession until 6 months AFTER the fact.

So how do you know we won't have a real GDP decline this quarter ?

I posted it above. I'll admit I don't know for sure, but most of the articles I've read suggest that the US is close, but probably isn't in a recession just yet.

However, like I also said above, not all the analysts agree with that assessment.

Either way though, it's a matter of semantics IMO. I don't really care if it's -0.01% growth or +0.01 growth, cuz both are bad. If the US technically is not in a recession, but has miniscule growth, then that is going to be felt. That was my main point to begin with.

[Railroader]

Originally Posted by Jawbone54 

You're all wrong.

The economy changes based on my mood. If you all care about the economy so much, you should be really nice to me.

Dude, get your glasses (and your cane), and solve that head ache problem. The USA needs you now.

[Eug]

Macworld calls Wall Street analysts irresponsible

In a sane world, Wall Street would demand that those analysts explain why they overestimated Apple’s sales. In the world we have, Wall Street punishes Apple for not creating the analysts’ fantasy, amplified by CNBC’s irresponsible mischaracterization of the plain facts that Apple released Tuesday. If Apple’s stock takes another beating for reasons that appear to puzzle commentators, you’ll know that they haven’t looked at the tape of Tuesday’s Closing Bell program on CNBC. That’s where the “Apple disappointed Wall Street” narrative was created—right before their eyes, live, in real time.

[finboy]

Originally Posted by Dark Goob 

My girl is in our bed crying right now...

Idiots. Who runs these banks anyway?

So why doesn't she hold onto it for another few years and THEN sell it. Selling it now makes no sense anyway.

She's more a victim of media hype than anything else.

[finboy]

Originally Posted by andi*pandi 

yet, when you see your 401k lost as much last quarter as you put into it, it's a bit depressing.

Geez, we did 12.8% last year. MidCap and offshore. And a lot of cash.

[SirCastor]

If it gives anyone the support they need, I too am buying my Apple stock tomorrow. My Wife and I aren't rolling in dough over here, so it's going to be a relatively small investment. Never the less, I feel like the time is right and this is a good opportunity to put some money down on a reliable stock.

Not only do we like Apple because of what they produce, but we genuinely believe that Apple is going to grow over the next several years. Will the stock have rough days? Yes. Of course it will. Most stocks do. There is a certain amount of risk involved in buying stock, and at some point you have to buckle down and take it.

[Nodnarb]

Originally Posted by SirCastor 

If it gives anyone the support they need, I too am buying my Apple stock tomorrow. My Wife and I aren't rolling in dough over here, so it's going to be a relatively small investment. Never the less, I feel like the time is right and this is a good opportunity to put some money down on a reliable stock.

Not only do we like Apple because of what they produce, but we genuinely believe that Apple is going to grow over the next several years. Will the stock have rough days? Yes. Of course it will. Most stocks do. There is a certain amount of risk involved in buying stock, and at some point you have to buckle down and take it.

+1

Making the call in the morning. I wish us luck!

[Nodnarb]

I wonder what it is going to open at this morning... it's up around $1 in pre-market trading, but who knows... I really hope it doesn't get much above $140 in the next hour, I know it doesn't sound like much but it is already up $15 from the low yesterday... we'll see. I'll let you know the final price I end up getting it for.

[torsoboy]

I'm kinda holding out for the $130 range again. We'll see....

[♥]

I bought Apple many years ago dirt cheap and just kept it.

I kinda think that's what you do: Buy it to keep for several years.

Buy stock and then forget about it for many years.

[Nodnarb]

Ok so i've got a straddle around it to a buy at $130 and a buy at $140, so if it starts going up I'll catch on right at $140, and if it goes down, I won't be losing THAT much (I sure hope it wouldn't go down and stay below $130.

That being said, I'm going to do what [heart] said above me (sorry I don't know how to type the heart) and not worry about the next week or 2 as I very well may lose some money in the short term. I'm buying because I know that within a year or 2 it will be huge again, and there is still some profit to be made. I'll just keep telling myself that if I see it going down still over the next little while... (assuming it doesn't stay in between $130 and $140, or else I have no stock!

[SirCastor]

Originally Posted by Nodnarb 

Ok so i've got a straddle around it to a buy at $130 and a buy at $140, so if it starts going up I'll catch on right at $140, and if it goes down, I won't be losing THAT much (I sure hope it wouldn't go down and stay below $130.

You're only losing money if you cash out your stock at a lower price than you bought it at. Stop thinking about it in terms of "Your Money", and start thinking about it as an investment. Personally, I think of it as money that I've given to Apple to produce cool stuff. Later, at some point Apple will say "Thank you" and pay me for the money I gave them.

The only time you lose is when a company falls apart and the stock never recovers. I strongly doubt no one here feels that Apple is going to go the way of it's former ~1995 era value. It's going to be a couple years before Apple says "Thank you." so relax.

Edit: As an FYI, I bought this morning at $140. Right now the stock is at $133. I'm not concerned though because I'm not selling my stock today. Or tomorrow. I'll be selling my stock at $200, or maybe $225, or maybe I'll be selling twice the shares after a split at $150. Any way it happens, it's gonna be more than a year or two before I even consider.

[Nodnarb]

I'm right there with you. Just a little more neurotic (it'll wear off after the first few weeks of watching the stock all day on my iPhone... I'm sure I'll drive myself crazy).

[Tesselator]

Dark Goob Wrote:

Idiots. Who runs these banks anyway?

Rockefeller, Rothchilds, Philips, etc. basically the same folks that funded Hitler and
have been increasing their fortunes with each war from Napoleon and even before.
Same folks that run most of the corporations which we all love to hate (Monsanto,
Mobil, IBM, dupont, etc.etc.etc.) for their fascist control of our government.


Was there someone actually thinking about stuff when we sent all our jobs to China and India??? Seems to me the only thing they were thinking about was SMOKING CRACK.

LOL, no, they're brilliant! There's no crackheads here. These boys do NOT make
mistakes. People this rich, influential, and established know exactly what they're
doing. It just doesn't make sense to "us" is all. We can't fathom that there are those
who place profit, power, and plan above the lives of billions of individual human
beings.

"Doomsday Seed Vault" in the Arctic
The Chase Manhattan Bank: Rockefeller's Bank
The Family That Preys Together, Chapter 3 from The Rockefeller File by Gary Allen (1976)
War is a Racket By USMC Major General Smedley D. Butler (1881-1940)
The August Review - Global Banking: The Bank for International Settlements
etc. etc. etc. I guess you all know how to use a search engine and backtrack
verifications?



Eug Wrote:
No worries? Far from it. However, it's also true that the use of the "R" word is a premature... considering the US isn't actually in a recession yet.

The Financial reports I have been reading and listening to all say that the USA has
technically been in a recession for over two years now. While GDP is up dollar inflation
passed it by about 30 months ago and we've been on steady decline. They no longer
publish the M5 in order to hide this fact and squelch public reaction but there are
several sources dedicated to monitoring all the indicators and publishing a reasonable
estimate. If even the most conservative among them is at all accurate we're in deep
deep do-do! Much deeper than only a severe recession.

Again your browsers work and I'm sure you all know how to use them and find out
about M5, dollar devaluation, the affects of point cutting, and how to use research
to verify the accuracy of a source instead of going by brand names, icons, and
reputations - which I've personally found to be insanely inaccurate and misleading.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Tesselator 

Dark Goob Wrote:

Idiots. Who runs these banks anyway?

Rockefeller, Rothchilds, Philips, etc. basically the same folks that funded Hitler and
have been increasing their fortunes with each war from Napoleon and even before.
Same folks that run most of the corporations which we all love to hate (Monsanto,
Mobil, IBM, dupont, etc.etc.etc.) for their fascist control of our government.


Was there someone actually thinking about stuff when we sent all our jobs to China and India??? Seems to me the only thing they were thinking about was SMOKING CRACK.

LOL, no, they're brilliant! There's no crackheads here. These boys do NOT make
mistakes. People this rich, influential, and established know exactly what they're
doing. It just doesn't make sense to "us" is all. We can't fathom that there are those
who place profit, power, and plan above the lives of billions of individual human
beings.

"Doomsday Seed Vault" in the Arctic
The Chase Manhattan Bank: Rockefeller's Bank
The Family That Preys Together, Chapter 3 from The Rockefeller File by Gary Allen (1976)
War is a Racket By USMC Major General Smedley D. Butler (1881-1940)
The August Review - Global Banking: The Bank for International Settlements
etc. etc. etc. I guess you all know who to use a search engine and backtrack
verifications?



Eug Wrote:
No worries? Far from it. However, it's also true that the use of the "R" word is a premature... considering the US isn't actually in a recession yet.

The Financial reports I have been reading and listening to all say that the USA has
technically been in a recession for over two years now. While GDP is up dollar inflation
passed it by about 30 months ago and we've been on steady decline. They no longer
publish the M5 in order to hide this fact and squelch public reaction but there are
several sources dedicated to monitoring all the indicators and publishing a reasonable
estimate. If even the most conservative among them is at all accurate we're in deep
deep do-do! Much deeper than only a severe recession.

Again your browsers work and I'm sure you all know how to use them and find out
about M5, dollar devaluation, the affects of point cutting, and how to use research
to verify the accuracy of a source instead of going by brand names, icons, and
reputations - which I've personally found to be insanely inaccurate and misleading.

[Doofy]

Originally Posted by Tesselator 

If even the most conservative among them is at all accurate we're in deep deep do-do!

Yep. I've just looked at gold prices for the first time in six months. Some serious hedging going on to drive the price that steep, so those in the know are very skittish.

I expected the US economy to tank in late '99. Surprised it's taken this long, to be honest.

[Tesselator]

Originally Posted by Eug 

So with that said you can go back to sleep I guess... Ya?

Good luck.

But I have a question.

Imagine a group of guys who say in advance that they plan to build a house and publish a
book about it. And then they go to the bank and take out a loan for about the amount needed
to build a house (which creates public records). And then they go to the hardware store and
buy all the tools needed to build a house and make those purchase receipts public. And then
the same for the materials and the land. And then they are seen out pouring concrete into
forms that look like are for a house's foundation on that same land and with those same tools.

At what point is it safe to assume that those men are building a house or honestly intent to?