[meelk]

Well, if you half pay attention to the world you know its coming and nothing is going to magically replace oil, including hydrogen. That being the case, Its probably a wise precaution to have a collection of "how to" style manuals/books which will enable you to adapt to a world without oil a lot more quickly. Of course this isnt going to be an overnight event and I'm not saying 'stock up now! the end is near!' or anything, but I'd be interested in hearing what other people think would be wise to know for a less technological, more agricultural, local community centered world.
Voice some opinions, please keep it civil and on topic.
"how to make candles"
"how to woodwork"
"amish living for dummies" (heh)
"how to properly preserve food"
etc.

[ghporter]

While we are slowly running out of easily obtained, easily refined crude oil, that does not mean that we are on the brink of running out period. Quite far from it. Here in Texas there are tens of thousands of wells that were capped because it wasn't economical to exploit them in the early '80s, even though they were proven performers; Middle Eastern oil was too cheap to make it worthwhile.

There are also petroleum producers who have converted to refining "heavy sour" crude rather than the more easily refined "light sweet" crude. The difference isn't much in terms of time and money invested once the equipment to do the job is set up. That means that there is a lot of what was once considered "useless" crude oil that's being refined instead of just ignored.

Now, I do not believe that our society will stand for moving back to candles, carving wood by hand to make needed furniture, and living off truck gardens. We "want our MTV," our iPods, our comfortable air conditioning, and especially all the useful and important life sustaining and extending technologies that depend on the use of power. Have you ever had an MRI? I've had two, and they both used a bunch of power. I would not do without the ability to get such accurate and essential information only available through MRIs, CT scans, PET scans and the like.

Important steps to take are things like ignoring the drive through window and just parking and walking into the Burger King. Making better use of our personal transportation by moving more than one person at a time-especially in big, low gas mileage vehicles like Lincoln Navigators and Hummer H2s. Turn your thermostat down in the winter and up in the summer, and get a programmable one to let the temps get too cool or too warm while you're not there. Turn off that damned TV and do something that doesn't require electricity-far too many people, especially Americans, depend on sitting in front of a 100Watthours per hour box that shows pretty pictures of stuff they don't ever buy. Turn OFF things that use electricity when you're not using them, including your computer. Use a small, rechargable MP3 player instead of cranking up the stereo when you're alone.

It's easy to use less power and less gas, but it's hard to get out of the comfortable rut we're in that has us using more than we need. Conservation done right can effectively increase the available energy reserves by (according to some theorists) up to 30%.

Finally, push for a serious and immediate program to find renewable, affordable replacements for fossil fuel NOW. Write your elected representatives, start petitions, and get noticed. Just putting off running out is not an answer. Putting it off to buy us time to find a replacement IS the answer.

[meelk]

Originally posted by ghporter:
While we are slowly running out of easily obtained, easily refined crude oil, that does not mean that we are on the brink of running out period. Quite far from it. Here in Texas there are tens of thousands of wells that were capped because it wasn't economical to exploit them in the early '80s, even though they were proven performers; Middle Eastern oil was too cheap to make it worthwhile.

There are also petroleum producers who have converted to refining "heavy sour" crude rather than the more easily refined "light sweet" crude. The difference isn't much in terms of time and money invested once the equipment to do the job is set up. That means that there is a lot of what was once considered "useless" crude oil that's being refined instead of just ignored.

Now, I do not believe that our society will stand for moving back to candles, carving wood by hand to make needed furniture, and living off truck gardens. We "want our MTV," our iPods, our comfortable air conditioning, and especially all the useful and important life sustaining and extending technologies that depend on the use of power. Have you ever had an MRI? I've had two, and they both used a bunch of power. I would not do without the ability to get such accurate and essential information only available through MRIs, CT scans, PET scans and the like.

Important steps to take are things like ignoring the drive through window and just parking and walking into the Burger King. Making better use of our personal transportation by moving more than one person at a time-especially in big, low gas mileage vehicles like Lincoln Navigators and Hummer H2s. Turn your thermostat down in the winter and up in the summer, and get a programmable one to let the temps get too cool or too warm while you're not there. Turn off that damned TV and do something that doesn't require electricity-far too many people, especially Americans, depend on sitting in front of a 100Watthours per hour box that shows pretty pictures of stuff they don't ever buy. Turn OFF things that use electricity when you're not using them, including your computer. Use a small, rechargable MP3 player instead of cranking up the stereo when you're alone.

It's easy to use less power and less gas, but it's hard to get out of the comfortable rut we're in that has us using more than we need. Conservation done right can effectively increase the available energy reserves by (according to some theorists) up to 30%.

Finally, push for a serious and immediate program to find renewable, affordable replacements for fossil fuel NOW. Write your elected representatives, start petitions, and get noticed. Just putting off running out is not an answer. Putting it off to buy us time to find a replacement IS the answer.

As much as a lot of what you say does make sense it totally ignores the fact that we will shortly be by all professional accounts on the downward curve of oil production around the world, regardless of how much you feel to be in texas at any given moment. I think that congress wouldnt be proposing drilling in alaska if texas were really to figure that much into the equation.
Secondly, wanting the ipods and mri's and etc etc that we have become accustomed to with modern society doesnt dictate that we will actually have them, it simply means we want them. Something like 500,000 products including plastics and pesticide componets are oil derivites. Parking your car and walking into the burger king instead of idling at the drive through isnt going to impact that kind of problem as resources begin to run out.

[meelk]

oops. forgot to mention, whatever you do here isnt going to be mirrored around the world as places like india and china begin to ramp up their oil demand, which they have been doing and will continue to do.

[SVass]

Yes, write your congressman and tell him not to waste your money on anything that wants government money to build renewable fuel, nuclear power plants, etc unless he FIRST approves a plan to eliminate tax breaks for oil producers and users. That will allow a free market to find the next generation fuel. The republics granted a tax writeoff for Hummers and other heavy trucks that makes them cheaper than smaller vehicles. They also want to use our (my/your) money to build power plants and simultaneously protect them against lawsuits if they fail and kill people. This crisis has been predicted since 1850 and still hasn't come to pass. sam

[ghporter]

Drilling in Alaska involves getting NEW money; the Texas wells are already there and would cost very little to open and begin exploiting again. Opening up Alaska is a very different thing; it's all about politics and almost nothing about the availability of oil.

And actually conserving what we have-as a society, not just as an isolated individual-WILL make a huge difference. Plastics are made from the waste products of refining, and can be made from all sorts of such chemical wastes, so it is unlikely that we'll run out of the materials, virgin or recycled, to make the plastics we need.

What I mean by saying that we "want" certain things is that if such things are threatened, societally we will DEMAND that action be taken. I suggest that we get started demanding now, starting by killing the idea of opening ANWR and getting Congress to work on finding something NEW instead.

[meelk]

DEMANDING action be taking in "finding" a new source of energy is completely useless. Everyone is already under the impression that hydrogen is the savior of the world and its simply not going to happen. While I wish you were correct, simply WANTING something does not make it happen. How about this:
I DEMAND THE CURE FOR CANCER
I DEMAND THE CURE FOR AIDS
*crickets*

Do you get my point? Wanting something to be so, and it actually becoming reality are two very different things.

[ghporter]

Originally posted by meelk:
DEMANDING action be taking in "finding" a new source of energy is completely useless. Everyone is already under the impression that hydrogen is the savior of the world and its simply not going to happen. While I wish you were correct, simply WANTING something does not make it happen. How about this:
I DEMAND THE CURE FOR CANCER
I DEMAND THE CURE FOR AIDS
*crickets*

Do you get my point? Wanting something to be so, and it actually becoming reality are two very different things.

I am not under the impression that hydrogen is THE answer, therefore not EVERYONE is under that impression. Using hydrogen is a good start, that's all.

Finding more effective sources of energy is not at all the same as finding cures for diseases. Using renewable sources like methane (from garbage-we'll NEVER run out of that!) or ethanol from corn are both very doable; we need the details like how to make the seals in fuel systems work with these chemicals instead of designing them all to simply deal with gasoline.

I agree that India and China are increasing their oil usage. They don't have a lot of oil in India, and China's resources aren't very big either. They can ask for all the oil they want to, but it won't be available forever. If they aren't prepared to use something else, it is their own problem, and I have little sympathy for them.

[TheBadgerHunter]

Originally posted by meelk:
As much as a lot of what you say does make sense it totally ignores the fact that we will shortly be by all professional accounts on the downward curve of oil production around the world, regardless of how much you feel to be in texas at any given moment. I think that congress wouldnt be proposing drilling in alaska if texas were really to figure that much into the equation.
Secondly, wanting the ipods and mri's and etc etc that we have become accustomed to with modern society doesnt dictate that we will actually have them, it simply means we want them. Something like 500,000 products including plastics and pesticide componets are oil derivites. Parking your car and walking into the burger king instead of idling at the drive through isnt going to impact that kind of problem as resources begin to run out.

No, we're on the upward curve of oil prices. There are crap-loads of oil but the problem is it isn't cheap to get. Shale oil for instance, plenty of it but it would drive up prices.

Make no mistake, we really do need oil or another cheap power source. Agriculture would be unable to produce enough food without oil. This is just one simple example of why society could never adapt to a world without oil.

[gofridge]

Weren't we told the world would run out of oil by 1983?

[meelk]

Originally posted by ghporter:
I am not under the impression that hydrogen is THE answer, therefore not EVERYONE is under that impression. Using hydrogen is a good start, that's all.

Finding more effective sources of energy is not at all the same as finding cures for diseases. Using renewable sources like methane (from garbage-we'll NEVER run out of that!) or ethanol from corn are both very doable; we need the details like how to make the seals in fuel systems work with these chemicals instead of designing them all to simply deal with gasoline.

I agree that India and China are increasing their oil usage. They don't have a lot of oil in India, and China's resources aren't very big either. They can ask for all the oil they want to, but it won't be available forever. If they aren't prepared to use something else, it is their own problem, and I have little sympathy for them.

Ethanol is not even doable. Apparently people who are very deep into this debate have crunched the numbers and found there is no way to produce enough corn to be able to run anywhere near the vehicles and things we run today, which, even if there were, wouldnt solve the problems associated with not having petro by products for use in the array of consumer goods already mentioned. This problem is so multi-tiered that is almost impossible to come to grips with. For instance, the same number crunchers have figured out (and this is agreed upon by pretty much everyone involved), that about 90 barrels of oil go into producing a car alone in transportation, by products, every little faucet you can imagine. Food that gets to your table is often wrapped in plastics, is made of plants which were sprayed with pesticides, and transported via gas guzzling 18 wheelers. Remove oil from that equation and you have less yield of food due to pests, nothing to put it in and sell it, and nothing to transport it with. This is not a small problem, and we are already beyond the stage where pushing goverment to come up with a solution is going to help, as a solution would have had to be enacted long ago to be on schedule to make a difference.

[Dimethyltrypt]

I say we give our taxes to the oil companies to help them find an alternative...

or else poor oil industry will sink... and that can't be good. no wars, no blood for oil.. how can we live in such a world?

we got Iraq now... we're safe for a bit... but for how long? I think we're rdy for Venezuela now...

[TheBadgerHunter]

Originally posted by meelk:
Ethanol is not even doable. Apparently people who are very deep into this debate have crunched the numbers and found there is no way to produce enough corn to be able to run anywhere near the vehicles and things we run today, which, even if there were, wouldnt solve the problems associated with not having petro by products for use in the array of consumer goods already mentioned. This problem is so multi-tiered that is almost impossible to come to grips with. For instance, the same number crunchers have figured out (and this is agreed upon by pretty much everyone involved), that about 90 barrels of oil go into producing a car alone in transportation, by products, every little faucet you can imagine. Food that gets to your table is often wrapped in plastics, is made of plants which were sprayed with pesticides, and transported via gas guzzling 18 wheelers. Remove oil from that equation and you have less yield of food due to pests, nothing to put it in and sell it, and nothing to transport it with. This is not a small problem, and we are already beyond the stage where pushing goverment to come up with a solution is going to help, as a solution would have had to be enacted long ago to be on schedule to make a difference.

Don't worry no one is kidding themselves. Nothing will ever be able to replace oil on a world-wide scale. Then again oil isn't going to vanish on that kind of scale either. We'll be screwed long before oil ever runs out.

Thankfully by then I'll be dead and my ancestors will be busy rolling in my generations waste products.

[Dimethyltrypt]

Originally posted by TheBadgerHunter:
Thankfully by then I'll be dead and my ancestors will be busy rolling in my generations waste products.

Damn straight fellow conservative... worrying for tomorrow's generations IS FOR LEFTY COMMUNIST TERRORISTS.

Got that, socialist scum bags??

[f1000]

Originally posted by meelk:
Well, if you half pay attention to the world you know its coming and nothing is going to magically replace oil, including hydrogen. That being the case, Its probably a wise precaution to have a collection of "how to" style manuals/books which will enable you to adapt to a world without oil a lot more quickly.

Oil is not our only energy source. We also have coal, geothermal, wave, tidal, wind, solar, fission, and quite probably fusion. Hydrogen isn't even a fuel source because elemental hydrogen doesn't exist in large quantities in the lithosphere (except as a byproduct of gas and petroleum extraction); rather, hydrogen is an energy carrier. Most of the hydrogen that will be used in fuel cells will come from organic compounds (i.e., coal, petroleum, alcohol, etc.) or the electrolysis of water.

In any event, we won't run out of energy for thousands of years. The price of it may go up at times, but once we have fusion the price of energy will become so cheap as to be free.

http://www.doe.gov/engine/content.do...=ENERGYSOURCES
http://auto.howstuffworks.com/hydrogen-economy4.htm
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine...n_id=rss_magzn

[TheBadgerHunter]

Originally posted by Dimethyltrypt:
Damn straight fellow conservative... worrying for tomorrow's generations IS FOR LEFTY COMMUNIST TERRORISTS.

Got that, socialist scum bags??

So.. the only thing that would make you (and people like you) act responsibly is impending (maybe) doom? Isn't that kind of silly? I mean if oil is going to run out it'll run out either way. Even if it wasn't thats no excuse for pollution; a problem that has become very visible and, for some, deadly.

[Eug Wanker]

[smug] Gotta love it. My oil stocks are going up and up and up, but gas still doesn't cost me much cuz I own a hybrid. [/smug]



But yeah, I'd love it even more if tomorrow all my oil stocks were worthless because somebody came up with a viable and clean renewable source of energy in amounts enough to power our world.

Originally posted by f1000:
In any event, we won't run out of energy for thousands of years. The price of it may go up at times, but once we have fusion the price of energy will become so cheap as to be free.

Hopefully we don't blow ourselves up in the process.

[meelk]

Originally posted by f1000:
Oil is not our only energy source. We also have coal, geothermal, wave, tidal, wind, solar, fission, and quite probably fusion. Hydrogen isn't even a fuel source because elemental hydrogen doesn't exist in large quantities in the lithosphere (except as a byproduct of gas and petroleum extraction); rather, hydrogen is an energy carrier. Most of the hydrogen that will be used in fuel cells will come from organic compounds (i.e., coal, petroleum, alcohol, etc.) or the electrolysis of water.

In any event, we won't run out of energy for thousands of years. The price of it may go up at times, but once we have fusion the price of energy will become so cheap as to be free.

http://www.doe.gov/engine/content.do...=ENERGYSOURCES
http://auto.howstuffworks.com/hydrogen-economy4.htm
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine...n_id=rss_magzn

We are still left with the problem at hand, being that within 20 to 30 yrs essentially the oil we have to use will be gone. Sure, it may still being pumped out of the ground in several hundred years, but the amount will be essentially meaningless to you and me, and certainly meaningless before we hit that 20 or 30 year mark. I expect within 10 or 15 years the goverment with clamp down on individual travel with a vengence, you will be forced to car pool if you go anywhere at all. Right after that, you simply wont be able to go anywhere, as the goverment will claim oil for official business only. Military and police vehicles, rescue vehicles, fire trucks etc will be the only cars allowed on the roads unless you are fortunate enough to be one of the people with an obscenely expensive electrical car (expensive because of production costs related to oil more than the car itself). I'd like to think the situation will be different, I really do, but the fact of the matter is the worlds scientists, while differing in exact numbers, tend to agree on a 20 or 30 year timeline for this problem to really come to a head.

[Dimethyltrypt]

Originally posted by TheBadgerHunter:
So.. the only thing that would make you (and people like you) act responsibly is impending (maybe) doom? Isn't that kind of silly? I mean if oil is going to run out it'll run out either way. Even if it wasn't thats no excuse for pollution; a problem that has become very visible and, for some, deadly.

so you're telling me I should stop actually driving my Hummer H2, stop burning wood 24/24 7/7 in my fireplace? that I should stop saving electricity? and just say bye bye to my stock options in Shell Oil Company??? you're saying we invaded Iraq for nothing?

stop being silly yourself. I miss the days where being a communist would be illegal.

the good ol' days... the good ol' days.

[Dimethyltrypt]

Originally posted by gofridge:
Weren't we told the world would run out of oil by 1983?

for the green commies, it's always "really soon now."

[dcmacdaddy]

Originally posted by meelk:
Well, if you half pay attention to the world you know its coming and nothing is going to magically replace oil, including hydrogen. That being the case, Its probably a wise precaution to have a collection of "how to" style manuals/books which will enable you to adapt to a world without oil a lot more quickly. Of course this isnt going to be an overnight event and I'm not saying 'stock up now! the end is near!' or anything, but I'd be interested in hearing what other people think would be wise to know for a less technological, more agricultural, local community centered world.
Voice some opinions, please keep it civil and on topic.
"how to make candles"
"how to woodwork"
"amish living for dummies" (heh)
"how to properly preserve food"
etc.

You are taking a too apocalyptic attitude to what is a *possibility*. Still, to be on the safe side you could do the following.

*Build a home using cutting-edge energy saving appliances
*Design your home to take advantage of solar energy--both passive and active--and, if you live in a rural area, wind energy
*If you live in an urban area wind-mills are out of the question, but you probably have an electric utility who gives you a choice of suppliers from which to buy: Choose one who invest a lot in renewable energy (solar, wind, etc.) even if you pay more
*Recycle your water: Want to water your garden, install a grey-water recycling system (water source is showers, laundry, and dish-washing, but NO human waste)
*If you live in an urban high-rise advocate for urban roof-top gardens to help with cooling; Suggest building upgrades to exterior windows that make a structure more energy efficient
*At work, advocate for "smart" lighting systems that turn on/off based on room usage not time of day (think of the conference room that gets used for only part of the day but has it lights turned on from start of day to end of day)
*Buy a hybrid car

So, these are things I thought of off the top of my head. There are plenty of resources out there on the web if you want to investigate this matter further.

[meelk]

Originally posted by Dimethyltrypt:
for the green commies, it's always "really soon now."

the mentality of "its going to last forever" is what I roll my eyes at. Especially when everyone in the know is saying "Hi, we are reaching peak oil". I think its time to wake up. Nothing lasts forever.

[Eug Wanker]

Originally posted by meelk:
We are still left with the problem at hand, being that within 20 to 30 yrs essentially the oil we have to use will be gone. Sure, it may still being pumped out of the ground in several hundred years, but the amount will be essentially meaningless to you and me, and certainly meaningless before we hit that 20 or 30 year mark. I expect within 10 or 15 years the goverment with clamp down on individual travel with a vengence, you will be forced to car pool if you go anywhere at all. Right after that, you simply wont be able to go anywhere, as the goverment will claim oil for official business only. Military and police vehicles, rescue vehicles, fire trucks etc will be the only cars allowed on the roads unless you are fortunate enough to be one of the people with an obscenely expensive electrical car (expensive because of production costs related to oil more than the car itself). I'd like to think the situation will be different, I really do, but the fact of the matter is the worlds scientists, while differing in exact numbers, tend to agree on a 20 or 30 year timeline for this problem to really come to a head.

Actually they don't. The cheapest oil might run out in 30 years, but there are huge reserves of more expensive oil.

[Dimethyltrypt]

^ listen to this brave young men here

if the poor stop wasting our oil then we can have more for our hummer H2 quality times.

[meelk]

Originally posted by dcmacdaddy:
You are taking a too apocalyptic attitude to what is a *possibility*. Still, to be on the safe side you could do the following.

*Build a home using cutting-edge energy saving appliances
*Design your home to take advantage of solar energy--both passive and active--and, if you live in a rural area, wind energy
*If you live in an urban area wind-mills are out of the question, but you probably have an electric utility who gives you a choice of suppliers from which to buy: Choose one who invest a lot in renewable energy (solar, wind, etc.) even if you pay more
*Recycle your water: Want to water your garden, install a grey-water recycling system (water source is showers, laundry, and dish-washing, but NO human waste)
*If you live in an urban high-rise advocate for urban roof-top gardens to help with cooling; Suggest building upgrades to exterior windows that make a structure more energy efficient
*At work, advocate for "smart" lighting systems that turn on/off based on room usage not time of day (think of the conference room that gets used for only part of the day but has it lights turned on from start of day to end of day)
*Buy a hybrid car

So, these are things I thought of off the top of my head. There are plenty of resources out there on the web if you want to investigate this matter further.

I'm not worried in the least bit about "energy" as in electricity. Solar will eventually come far enough to help with a large amount of that problem, and even things like nuclear power plants, while not the best answer, will work for the immediate and future.
OIL and its by products are what I am talking about. Buying a car doesnt do crap when russia, india, china, etc are chugging away at increasing amounts of oil every year (as if we in america dont over consume already). These solutions simply wont work because they arent instituted on a global scale, and forcibly, at that. Furthermore, while electrical cars and hybrids might seem like an appealing answer, how many 18 wheelers full of cargo would realistically run on ANY electric motor? I'd think the answer is none.

[meelk]

Originally posted by Eug Wanker:
Actually they don't. The cheapest oil might run out in 30 years, but there are huge reserves of more expensive oil.

The united states oil reserve will run the country for 60 days. Where these magical reserves are that you mention amuses me, as the middle east contains 60% of the worlds oil, and its production has been in steady decline for some time.

[Link]

[TheBadgerHunter]

Originally posted by dcmacdaddy:
You are taking a too apocalyptic attitude to what is a *possibility*. Still, to be on the safe side you could do the following.

*Build a home using cutting-edge energy saving appliances
*Design your home to take advantage of solar energy--both passive and active--and, if you live in a rural area, wind energy
*If you live in an urban area wind-mills are out of the question, but you probably have an electric utility who gives you a choice of suppliers from which to buy: Choose one who invest a lot in renewable energy (solar, wind, etc.) even if you pay more
*Recycle your water: Want to water your garden, install a grey-water recycling system (water source is showers, laundry, and dish-washing, but NO human waste)
*If you live in an urban high-rise advocate for urban roof-top gardens to help with cooling; Suggest building upgrades to exterior windows that make a structure more energy efficient
*At work, advocate for "smart" lighting systems that turn on/off based on room usage not time of day (think of the conference room that gets used for only part of the day but has it lights turned on from start of day to end of day)
*Buy a hybrid car

So, these are things I thought of off the top of my head. There are plenty of resources out there on the web if you want to investigate this matter further.

Actually I know someone who works for a company that sells solar and wind power crap. You can actually use wind power in urban areas to some extent.

[Eug Wanker]

Originally posted by meelk:
The united states oil reserve will run the country for 60 days. Where these magical reserves are that you mention amuses me, as the middle east contains 60% of the worlds oil, and its production has been in steady decline for some time.

Incorrect. The middle east contains 60% of the world's cheap oil, and its production is actually currently increasing (although they will likely start decreasing soon).

In fact, there is more recoverable oil in Canada than there is in all of Saudi Arabia. However, Canadian oil is more difficult to recover and thus more expensive.

I'm not a big fan of wasteful energy practices either. (Like I said, I drive a hybrid.) However, more people might believe what you have to say if you actually presented them with real facts.

[meelk]

Originally posted by Eug Wanker:
Incorrect. The middle east contains 60% of the world's cheap oil, and its production is actually currently increasing (although they will likely start decreasing soon).

In fact, there is more recoverable oil in Canada than there is in all of Saudi Arabia. However, Canadian oil is more difficult and thus more expensive to recover.

no, their production is "increasing" because when opec dictated that oil sales would be based on oil reserves all the opec countries lied about their reserves and increased their reported amounts by two and three hundred percent. Opec countries have been mis-representing to the world their capacity vs their reserves for some time for the almighty dollar.

[Eug Wanker]

Originally posted by meelk:
no, their production is "increasing" because when opec dictated that oil sales would be based on oil reserves all the opec countries lied about their reserves and increased their reported amounts by two and three hundred percent. Opec countries have been mis-representing to the world their capacity vs their reserves for some time for the almighty dollar.

So you admit your statement that oil production was decreasing was wrong then?

[meelk]

Originally posted by Eug Wanker:
So you admit your statement that oil production was decreasing was wrong then?

I think you missed the whole part about opec lying.

[TheBadgerHunter]

Originally posted by meelk:
The united states oil reserve will run the country for 60 days. Where these magical reserves are that you mention amuses me, as the middle east contains 60% of the worlds oil, and its production has been in steady decline for some time.

Look what a poor choice of words can do. The middle east produces %60 of the world's oil. It does NOT contain 60%. We cannot say just how much oil there is because we're always finding more. On top of that is all the untapped or ignored oil supplies. Oh and did I mention the manufactured light crude?

The crisis is NOT running out of oil. The possible crisis is really freaking expensive oil. The former could cripple humanity and the latter could cripple the car industry.

[meelk]

er, opec countries lying, rather, and opec just "going with it"

[Eug Wanker]

Originally posted by meelk:
I think you missed the whole part about opec lying.

No, I'm just calling you on your "facts". Regardless of whether the oil producers are nice guys are not, your statements were simply wrong.

[meelk]

Originally posted by Eug Wanker:
No, I'm just calling you on your "facts". Regardless of whether the oil producers are nice guys are not, your statements were simply wrong.

this from the guy named "Eug Wanker"

[meelk]

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
informative.
http://greatchange.org/ov-thomson,convince_sheet.html
informative.

you'll find these sites among others that I'm sure youll google up to be of particualar interest as they back everything they say with legitimate sources. If you still want to call me wrong afterwards, go ahead, but I'd rather take the word of informed individuals who work in the field that is specifically under pressure than you.

[dcmacdaddy]

Originally posted by meelk:
I'm not worried in the least bit about "energy" as in electricity. Solar will eventually come far enough to help with a large amount of that problem, and even things like nuclear power plants, while not the best answer, will work for the immediate and future.
OIL and its by products are what I am talking about. Buying a car doesnt do crap when russia, india, china, etc are chugging away at increasing amounts of oil every year (as if we in america dont over consume already). These solutions simply wont work because they arent instituted on a global scale, and forcibly, at that. Furthermore, while electrical cars and hybrids might seem like an appealing answer, how many 18 wheelers full of cargo would realistically run on ANY electric motor? I'd think the answer is none.

Umm, how do you think that electricity gets created? Usually by burning coal, oil, or natural gas. They are all fossils fuels. So, dealing with reduced electricity consumption IS addressing the problem of running out of oil (if it even is a problem). The less fossile fuels we use now means the longer our current reserves will last. And again, this only takes into account *easily accessible* reserves. Do some research on the tar pits in Alberta to find out where most of the world's *hardly accessible* oil is stored.

[TheBadgerHunter]

Originally posted by meelk:
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
informative.
http://greatchange.org/ov-thomson,convince_sheet.html
informative.

you'll find these sites among others that I'm sure youll google up to be of particualar interest as they back everything they say with legitimate sources. If you still want to call me wrong afterwards, go ahead, but I'd rather take the word of informed individuals who work in the field that is specifically under pressure than you.

Hey, while we're taking data derived from old data and a whole lot of old fashioned:

I PREDICT THE WORLD WILL BE RULED BY GIANT JELLY-BEAN MEN IN 10 YEARS!

[meelk]

Originally posted by dcmacdaddy:
Umm, how do you think that electricity gets created? Usually by burning coal, oil, or natural gas. They are all fossils fuels. So, dealing with reduced electricity consumption IS addressing the problem of running out of oil (if it even is a problem). The less fossile fuels we use now means the longer our current reserves will last. And again, this only takes into account *easily accessible* reserves. Do some research on the tar pits in Alberta to find out where most of the world's *hardly accessible* oil is stored.

The biggest problem with the tar pits is the energy and time put into producing the oil does not square against the associated returns. Think logically here. While natural gas is indeed widely used, it is running on bascially the same track in north america in terms of running out that oil is, although the euros seem to be much better off in that respect. I specified that nuclear power, while not a great alternative to fossil fuels is a reliable source of energy. roughly 20 or 25% of the nations energy comes from nuclear power, and half or more of my state (SC) gets it from nuclear power plants. I have one about 20 miles from my house as a matter of fact.

[Eug Wanker]

Originally posted by meelk:
this from the guy named "Eug Wanker"

Heh. The first sign of a lost argument is a personal attack.

[meelk]

Originally posted by Eug Wanker:
Heh. The first sign of a lost argument is a personal attack.

I've presented facts..youve presented....oh wait. nothing.

[Eug Wanker]

Sorry, we just don't buy your rants.

The sad part is many of us are actually on your side. Unfortunately, your misrepresentation of the facts and irrelevant attacks simply make our side look bad.

[f1000]

Originally posted by meelk:
We are still left with the problem at hand, being that within 20 to 30 yrs essentially the oil we have to use will be gone. Sure, it may still being pumped out of the ground in several hundred years, but the amount will be essentially meaningless to you and me, and certainly meaningless before we hit that 20 or 30 year mark. I expect within 10 or 15 years the goverment with clamp down on individual travel with a vengence, you will be forced to car pool if you go anywhere at all. Right after that, you simply wont be able to go anywhere, as the goverment will claim oil for official business only. Military and police vehicles, rescue vehicles, fire trucks etc will be the only cars allowed on the roads unless you are fortunate enough to be one of the people with an obscenely expensive electrical car (expensive because of production costs related to oil more than the car itself). I'd like to think the situation will be different, I really do, but the fact of the matter is the worlds scientists, while differing in exact numbers, tend to agree on a 20 or 30 year timeline for this problem to really come to a head.

First of all, I disagree with your numbers. The Department of Energy and the Society of Petroleum Engineers both predict the existence of far more oil than you do. Second of all, automobiles have already been made that can run on alternative energy sources, such as battery, hydrogen, alcohol, and solar. Even when fossil fuels finally run out, we can always use solar or nuclear energy to extract hydrogen from water or to charge batteries directly. These technologies exist TODAY, but are simply too expensive to compete with gas-powered autos. GM even test marketed its EV1 for a few years before deciding that the time wasn't right to introduce electric cars.

There's a difference between saying that there are no CHEAP alternatives to gasoline and saying that there are NO alternatives at all. What you're saying is the latter, and that's simply wrong.

Maybe you're too young to remember our last major fuel crisis, but if you had a broader perspective you'd see that today's rising fuel prices are not the start of some economy wrecking trend. Read this following excerpt from the Wall Street Journal:

If we adjust gasoline prices for inflation and use 2003 dollars, we find that during the most celebrated days of cheap fuel and gas guzzling cars -- 1955 -- gasoline actually cost $1.66 a gallon on average across the nation. In 1972, the year before OPEC began to flex its muscles, prices were $1.28 a gallon. In 1981, the real record was set -- $2.36 cents a gallon. Heck, prices are only a nickel higher now than at this time last year.

We should not stop there, however. A better measure of the affordability of gasoline over time is not its inflation-adjusted price alone, but its inflation-adjusted price in comparison with our economic resources (in this case, inflation-adjusted GDP per capita). Even though the real price of gasoline was lower in 1972 ($1.28) than today ($1.73), per capita GDP is now $39,919 whereas it was only $20,667 (measured in 2003 dollars) in 1972. Real incomes have almost doubled since 1972, but real gasoline price have risen only 35%. Real gasoline prices were slightly lower in 1955 than today ($1.66 versus $1.73). But real per-capita GDP is almost $40,000 today and was only $14,094 in 1955. Real gasoline prices at the height of the oil shock in 1981 were higher than today ($2.36 versus $1.73), while real GDP per capita was lower ($24,369 versus almost $40,000) than today.

By those measures, then, gasoline prices today are only 37% of what they were in 1955, 70% of what they were in 1972, and 45% of what they were relative to income in 1981.

http://cato.org/research/articles/taylor-040406.html

[meelk]

I think the fact that opec has lied and continues to lie about its reserves tells its own story. We are in a now constant war with the middle east, it might be a news break to you, but if the situation was all fine and dandy we would not be there. When we attack iran, and at some point we almost certainly will, I think things will become far more clear to everyone who still refuses to see the big picture.

[argod]

meelk,

Here is a blog that covers this issue very well.
http://www.greencarcongress.com/oil/index.html

Otherwise you are wasting your time trying to have a debate
with people who give CATO institute's statistics as fact
which is just Oil industries talking points.

[meelk]

Originally posted by argod:
meelk,

Here is a blog that covers this issue very well.
http://www.greencarcongress.com/oil/index.html

Otherwise you are wasting your time trying to have a debate
with people who give CATO institute's statistics as fact
which is just Oil industries talking points.

Thank you so much, and agreed. I think most people are simply too enamored of their current lifestyle to simply admit that things are going to change, and change drastically throughout the world in the next 20 to 30 years time.
I'm sorry to anyone I offended, but it is time to wake up. I present to you information to HELP YOU. Regardless of if you believe it or not, what harm is there in educating yourself and at least attempting to see the (admittedly) gloomy alternative of what you think will happen?

This will end my participation in this thread, I really hope you all try to educate yourselves as much as possible regarding this matter.

ty again argod.

[BasketofPuppies]

So is this another one of those I only believe what I want to hear threads?

[dcmacdaddy]

Originally posted by meelk:
Thank you so much, and agreed. I think most people are simply too enamored of their current lifestyle to simply admit that things are going to change, and change drastically throughout the world in the next 20 to 30 years time.
I'm sorry to anyone I offended, but it is time to wake up. I present to you information to HELP YOU. Regardless of if you believe it or not, what harm is there in educating yourself and at least attempting to see the (admittedly) gloomy alternative of what you think will happen?

This will end my participation in this thread, I really hope you all try to educate yourselves as much as possible regarding this matter.

ty again argod.

Thank you Wise and Magnificent one for trying to HELP us. What would we ever do without you?

LIke Eug Wanker said, many of us agree with you in principle but your approach is tiresome. :sigh:

[King Bob On The Cob]

Originally posted by BasketofPuppies:
So is this another one of those I only believe what I want to hear threads?

more of one of these kinds...