[Thorzdad]

Ars Technica has started an information page that they intend to update regularly.

[subego]

Originally Posted by OreoCookie 

Your way of computing the death rate is highly misleading

A more charitable way to put it is I’m trying to pick the statistic which deserves the most emphasis.

While the death rate as normally computed is most useful for statistical comparison, I’m not convinced it’s the most useful for the average person at this precise moment.

What I think is a more useful statistic for the average person is one they can relate to what they’re consciously observing on a daily basis. I’m only going to be directly aware of the group who gets laid-out. The group of all people with the condition is inherently more abstract.

[andi*pandi]

We don't even have an accurate infection rate because we haven't been testing. And because we haven't been testing, people are going about their business infecting others.

The only reason not to have been testing is incompetence, or hoping to make the numbers look low to keep the market happy. Guess which.

[OreoCookie]

Originally Posted by subego 

A more charitable way to put it is I’m trying to pick the statistic which deserves the most emphasis.

But does it?
I still think it'd be highly misleading.

Originally Posted by subego 

While the death rate as normally computed is most useful for statistical comparison, I’m not convinced it’s the most useful for the average person at this precise moment.

Why, what would be the use?

Originally Posted by subego 

What I think is a more useful statistic for the average person is one they can relate to what they’re consciously observing on a daily basis. I’m only going to be directly aware of the group who gets laid-out. The group of all people with the condition is inherently more abstract.

Why would “your” mortality rate be “more directly related to what the public is consciously observing”? The greater public already has a huge problem understanding the basic tenets of statistics properly, and IMHO your “solution” would just worsen it. Lots of people are afraid of flying, yet not afraid of driving a car — even though air travel is a much, much safer mode of transportation. One component of that is that if there is an airplane accident, it tends to be catastrophic. And I am sure if you used “your” mortality rate and apply it to the example I gave in my previous post, the public would be more scared of the disease, which, overall, is less lethal.

I'd turn it around and say that “your” mortality rate is borne out of misunderstanding how statistics works.

[OreoCookie]

Originally Posted by andi*pandi 

We don't even have an accurate infection rate because we haven't been testing. And because we haven't been testing, people are going about their business infecting others.

The US has the added problem of its forked health care system. You are already hearing the horror stories of people being served $$$$ bills just to get tested.

Originally Posted by andi*pandi 

The only reason not to have been testing is incompetence, or hoping to make the numbers look low to keep the market happy. Guess which.

In Japan the government is still hoping to hold the Olympics, yet adding travel restrictions to people coming from countries that have more infections … because they have more testing.

[subego]

Originally Posted by OreoCookie 

I'd turn it around and say that “your” mortality rate is borne out of misunderstanding how statistics works.

It would appear you are convinced enough of your position you feel free to attack me personally.

I have not conducted the discussion in this manner, and expect the same in return.

[Thorzdad]

An Indiana school system has made the decision to close for the next two weeks (leading into their already-planned spring break) due to two possible cases appearing in students.

[andi*pandi]

Our schools have cancelled a large concert event. There are no cases in our town, but we are surrounded by towns with people who went to the Biogen conference in Boston and got infected so paranoia/caution is prevailing. We had a group go to a musical competition in NY but cancelled their city trip/broadway show afterwards.

Boston cancelled the St. Patricks Day Parade, and people are looking hopefully toward the Marathon still.

[OreoCookie]

Originally Posted by subego 

It would appear you are convinced enough of your position you feel free to attack me personally.

I have not conducted the discussion in this manner, and expect the same in return.

I don’t think I have attacked you personally. Pointing out that I think you have fallen into the same trap as a sizable share of the population when it comes to statistics is not the same as calling you stupid or ugly or deriding an attribute that is not related to the discussion. Perhaps I could have been more diplomatic in my tone, but this is close to my field of expertise (I have a PhD in math) and math is rather black-and-white.

Besides, it is quite silly to focus on mortality rate alone without mentioning the age cohort. The mortality rate amongst children is very small, fortunately, so at least there is that. If you are above 60 on the other hand … 

[...deleted...]

[andi*pandi]

world map:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

[Laminar]

Originally Posted by And.reg 

Yup.
And more institutions are cancelling concerts, parades, funded international trips, the paranoia just keeps spreading faster than the virus.

That's literally how you head off a pandemic.

Coronavirus: *Exists*
Dumb people: "I'm not worried! Everyone's freaking out for no reason!"
Some people: "I'm going to take precautions."
Corporations and governments: "We're also going to take precautions."
Coronavirus: *Peters out, in large part due to precautions*
Dumb people: "See! You all freaked out for no reason and were stupid for taking precautions!"

[Brien]

Wonder how long until the close Disneyland/World...

[Thorzdad]

Here in Indianapolis, the gearheads are pondering whether the 500 might be cancelled (or run without the crowd) come May.

[subego]

Originally Posted by OreoCookie 

Perhaps I could have been more diplomatic in my tone, but this is close to my field of expertise (I have a PhD in math) and math is rather black-and-white.

There’s no question my knowledge on this subject is vastly inferior to yours, and I will likewise concede the very real possibility my statistical acumen has failed on multiple accounts.

However, I ask it be considered my argument has not been made clear. That there is a gap occurring in communication, as well as knowledge.

To address this entails mutual effort. It will be rendered impossible if you are instead of a mind I‘m deserving of swipes.

[turtle777]

Wow. Interview with doctor who’s overseeing ICU beds in Lombardy, Italy.
After less than three weeks of outbreak, their ICUs are maxed out.
And that’s after they added 200 ICU beds. That’s crazy.

https://youtu.be/9mrPHO-nkVE

F$&@ everyone who says this is no worse than the flu.

-t

[andi*pandi]

Yup.

My work is currently encouraging everyone work from home, but after 1pm meeting will likely require it. MA declared a state of emergency yesterday after the biogen conference attendees have 70+ cases.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/...d-coronavirus/

tl/dr; Medical professionals felt they should be tested and were told to stay away from the hospital. We need testing areas that are not near other sick people. I have a friend about to give birth and they have been told they can't have the kids in to visit when the baby is born.

[reader50]

It's good that people are responding seriously instead of trying to play it down.

I'm continuing to update the current figures in the 3rd post. While China has almost whipped it, the rest of the world is slipping. The number of currently ill has been increasing for the past week.

[Laminar]

We're officially crazy people - stocked up on non-perishables, frozen meat, pasta, diapers, TP, dog food, soap, and sanitizer. Spring break is just a road trip for us with no airports or hotels, but in case we need to self-quarantine for some reason, we'll be okay. And it's all stuff we'd buy and use anyway so we're not out any extra money.

[subego]

I’ve had trouble with my two closest friends.

One has a brother with three kids, who’s strung out on heroin and just killed someone, so they’re just going through the motions right now.

That I understand, but my other friend is a “not follow the crowd” type.

I guess I understand that, too... but I think it’s a bad call on this one.

[subego]

Originally Posted by Laminar 

We're officially crazy people - stocked up on non-perishables, frozen meat, pasta, diapers, TP, dog food, soap, and sanitizer. Spring break is just a road trip for us with no airports or hotels, but in case we need to self-quarantine for some reason, we'll be okay. And it's all stuff we'd buy and use anyway so we're not out any extra money.

I’m getting there.

Still going out for fresh food, but I’m also stocking more non-perishables each time I go. Shelves have some consistent bare spots, but it’s hard to tell if it’s a slow-motion food run or just Kroger being Kroger.

Already had an apocalypse-grade supply of TP because what else am I going to put under the bathroom sinks?

Need to get a bottle of meds, which normally costs a bajillion dollars, and will be about three bajillion dollars outside my insurance cycle.

Definitely need cigarettes.

Stopped taking the train. Only go out for cigarettes, fresh groceries, and Ethiopian coffee. Thanks for killing me And.reg!

Also go out for work, or at least will start again tomorrow. Thankfully my workload away from home is in a pretty light phase.

[reader50]

Stocking ahead on TP looks to be a misfire. The Ars article linked above, gives a breakdown of symptoms in people:

88 percent had a fever
68 percent had a dry cough
38 percent had fatigue
33 percent coughed up phlegm
19 percent had shortness of breath
15 percent had joint or muscle pain
14 percent had a sore throat
14 percent headache
11 percent had chills
5 percent had nausea or vomiting
5 percent had nasal congestion
4 percent had diarrhea
Less than one percent coughed up blood or blood-stained mucus
Less than one percent had watery eyes

I've bolded the symptoms that cause TP usage. Assuming overlap between those symptoms, excessive TP usage probably happens in 8% or fewer cases.

I plan to buy one extra package the next time I go shopping. Maybe some non-perishible foods too, if they're on sale. I don't feel like panic buying yet.

[subego]

The rational ideas I can see for stocking up on TP are,

1) Expectations of a run.
2) Expectations of needing to hole-up.

I don’t know how many people are being rational right now, but I’m sure those two are big drivers.

I could be wrong, but I get the general feeling people are approaching this in terms of how not to get infected, not what to do once they get infected, which is what makes the mask situation so obnoxious.

[Thorzdad]

Welp, it’s official. It’s a pandemic.

[subego]

Apple News just sent me a notification I should be getting my virus info from them.

[...deleted...]

[reader50]

No one knows. Many colds decrease in summer, but no one knows why. It's currently summer in the southern hemisphere, but Australia/Africa/South America are reporting cases.

An approved vaccine will probably happen in 2021, so containment and hospitalization will have to hold until then. Unless it does die down in summer.

[...deleted...]

[andi*pandi]

I hear maine still has no cases, so as long as they patrol the southern border they should be fine, right?!

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by reader50 

Stocking ahead on TP looks to be a misfire.

I've bolded the symptoms that cause TP usage. Assuming overlap between those symptoms, excessive TP usage probably happens in 8% or fewer cases.

I use TP after I take a crap.

-t

[Waragainstsleep]

I bet some crafty TP executive "leaked" a story about shortages and/or panic buying and its all followed from there.

[Thorzdad]

White House told federal health agency to classify coronavirus deliberations.

[Laminar]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

I use TP after I take a crap.

-t

Right - it's necessary whether or not you're sick, and there's no penalty for buying too much - it doesn't expire and you're guaranteed to need it. If crazy people are going to hoard it, well then I will too.

I did install a bidet earlier this year, so the need is less, but it's still there.

[...deleted...]

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by Laminar 

Right - it's necessary whether or not you're sick, and there's no penalty for buying too much - it doesn't expire and you're guaranteed to need it. If crazy people are going to hoard it, well then I will so too.

Absolutely,

My motto in these times: beat the crowed - panic early

I stock up on a kinds of non-perishables as long as I have room.

-t

[andi*pandi]

People are now so desperate even the vegetable aisles are wiped out.

[reader50]

Originally Posted by Thorzdad 

White House told federal health agency to classify coronavirus deliberations.

I've been relying more on WHO statements ever since the administration muzzled the CDC. Medical info from experts should not be routed through a politician's office for approval. The CDC should be in charge of the US response, not demoted to sidelined advisors.

The decision to have the CDC develop an American test kit for COVID19 doesn't make sense medically. It cost us valuable time, vs using the WHO test kit. I suspect it was a political decision.

[subego]

That’s certainly possible, but my experience has been if you dig on these sorts of things, they get complicated fast, and the decision begins to make more and more sense the more one knows about it.

Here... did a quick Google for “why cdc make new test”, and skimmed the first few paragraphs.

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6...virus-testing/

The CDC tests were ready more than a month ago, but they had QA problems.

I’m guessing a big reason they went for their own test was an assumption it would arrive in a timely manner, and I would hope was a more accurate test.

[andi*pandi]

who owns the company who would make an american test kit?

[Waragainstsleep]

Originally Posted by andi*pandi 

who owns the company who would make an american test kit?

Trumptests©

[...deleted...]

[subego]

Rumor is the announcement of a statewide public school closure is about a half-hour away.

Edit: press conference moved to 5. Mayor of Chicago and Cook County Board President to join. Details still unconfirmed, but none of this implies the announcement will be small.

[subego]

False rumor, and incorrect analysis on my part. State has suspended any gathering over 1,000 people.

[Thorzdad]

Here in Indy, everyone’s phones are blowing up over a rumor that the area Kroger warehouse is being shut down. People are bum-rushing the supermarkets in a panic.

[ghporter]

I am an occupational therapist working in an acute rehabilitation hospital. I currently have a patient who went from "mild flu" to coma in about a week. A working age adult with no real medical issues until this. My point, apparently not properly made, is that we already have a health threat that is taxing our ability to treat all serious illnesses.

I'm not in any way minimizing the severity of COVID-19. Far from it. But at the same time, if most people had taken influenza at all seriously, then doing the things that can protect one from this new threat would already be in place, and almost second nature.

Having basic hand washing, avoiding contact, etc. in place would free up thousands of hospital beds and hundreds of ICU beds for victims of COVID-19. AND there would be fewer "not severe" cases of COVID-19 to deal with.

[Brien]

More dominos fall. All Disney parks/resorts/cruises - closed. Tons of schools. Tons of businesses want everyone to work from home, mine included. Where does the madness end? It feels like a federal-level social ban, school closures etc. is unavoidable at this point.

Originally Posted by reader50 

No one knows. Many colds decrease in summer, but no one knows why. It's currently summer in the southern hemisphere, but Australia/Africa/South America are reporting cases.

An approved vaccine will probably happen in 2021, so containment and hospitalization will have to hold until then. Unless it does die down in summer.

Can they honestly expect to shut everything down and have people stay home for a year? Wouldn’t the global economy collapse? At some point if this goes on long enough business are going to have to start laying people off.

[reader50]

Things won't shut down for a year. They're trying to slow down the infection rate, let testing catch up. Testing capacity in the US is badly behind, apparently because someone chose to develop our own test instead of using the WHO test. And our test had quality-control problems.

Per the Ars article, 81% of people get mild symptoms and recover on their own in a couple weeks. 14% get severe symptoms and could use some hospital time. But this group also recovers in full. Together, that's just over 95% of people.

Just under 5% of cases are critical. Hospital attention required. About half of these have died. The mortality rate appears to depend on if the hospital system is overwhelmed. If proper ICU beds are available, the death rate is more like 1%.

The antiviral drug Remdesivir is undergoing trials. It's not a cure, but is thought to slow the infection rate in a patient, allowing more time for their immune system to respond. Some other stopgap measures are also in testing. Beware anyone selling cures, especially on the internet.

Anyone who has recovered is immune, as with any other cold. I suggest reading the Ars article in full, it's informative.

[Thorzdad]

My wife works for a small home healthcare firm. Their workforce of caregivers includes many moms. With the Indy area schools closing, many of their caregivers won’t be able to work their shifts because they have to be home with their kids.

This now has the company looking at triaging their clients in terms of who absolutely must be cared for or who can be shuffled to the bottom of the priority list, because they very probably aren’t going to have enough caregivers to cover clients. Clients who can’t be covered, of course, can’t be billed. Loss of billing will severely affect the stability of the company and, in turn, my wife’s job. She’s the major breadwinner here.

[andi*pandi]

The people who will remain on the frontlines, the grocery clerks, hospital staff, and restaurant staff (people still get takeout)... we must give them credit.

schools closed for 2 weeks. Job is work from home (computer stuff, not sure what mailroom is doing). Grocery store nearby not completely wiped out but not much rice, tp, or hand sanitizer.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by reader50 

Anyone who has recovered is immune, as with any other cold. I suggest reading the Ars article in full, it's informative.

Is that definitive ? Do you have a link ?

I read about re-infections in China and Japan.
Perhaps this was due to the two strains.

-t