[turtle777]

Wow, so Bernanke said he'd stop QE2, and the USD plumets, and precious metals rally.

Markets to Chairsatan: YOU'RE A LIAR !!1!one

-t

[ebuddy]

Originally Posted by Wiskedjak 

Hopefully, but conservatives didn't seem too vocal about Bush's contributions to the debt issue. Partisan voters are only ever concerned about what the other party is doing and always seem to turn a blind eye to what they're party is doing when it's in power.

The problem I have is the citation of Bush's most contentious moves that Obama supporters claim Obama "inherited" such as TARP (supported by Obama), the Bush tax cuts (extended by Obama), Iraq as an attack on a sovereign country that didn't attack us (surged under Obama, surged in Afghanistan under Obama, and a new one launched against Libya under Obama) when it is clear that the above would've been inherent in the Obama Administration, not inherited from Bush. Bush's approval ratings plummeted among conservatives and liberals alike and anyone associated with Bush was essentially removed from Congress. It was Republican spending that spawned the Tea Party movement and again, using this forum as a barometer; conservatives complained about Bush bucks and TARP (framed as a great big wtf?!?) yet I see little to no scrutiny over Obama's equally contentious measures here unless pressed for it.

In short, while many will toe the line for their guy, I believe Conservatives have the greater integrity in this if only slightly.

[ShortcutToMoncton]

Originally Posted by ShortcutToMoncton 

Yikes - powerful welfare system, incredibly large public sector, state ownership of important companies in the biggest economic sectors, taxation on net worth, and universal health and unemployment/disability benefits? Let me tell you, when I think "Norway", "made for turtle777" is rarely the next thought.

Unless you're thinking about Svalbard with the polar bears? Tax-free haven in the Arctic circle - I'd suggest lower-latitude islands first to be honest!

greg

No seriously turtle - was this just a facetious comment or is there something I'm missing?? I peg your economic and social views on this board as being completely the opposite of whatever the hell Norweigans would believe. Am I wrong about you or them? You've confused me here

[Athens]

The funny thing is you are all fighting over the Discretionary spending which most of it is deficit spending and ignoring the real problem which is the mandatory spending. Socical Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Interest on Debt and other Mandatory programs are eating up 2.2 Trillion dollars. The revenue estimate is at 2.4 Trillion dollars. The defense budget alone is 660 Billion dollars which is under discretionary spending. Now its already exceeding revenues. The Interest on the debt is 165 Billion, so even if the debt was totally gone, the budget would still be in deficit with Mandatory spending and the Defense budget, ignoring ALL the other things money is spent on.



Social Security, Welfare and Medicare all need reforms and cost savings and defense spending needs to be cut to ever balance the books. Taxes need to raise a little bit. Nit picking over all the little things will not make any difference at all. And you can bet as interest rates rise that Interest on the National Debt section will grow larger on the pie chat.

[imitchellg5]

Yes, discretionary spending is a pretty insignificant part of the overall budget. besson and I have talked about this in other threads.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by ShortcutToMoncton 

No seriously turtle - was this just a facetious comment or is there something I'm missing?? I peg your economic and social views on this board as being completely the opposite of whatever the hell Norweigans would believe. Am I wrong about you or them? You've confused me here

I might not agree with their social system, but I for sure agree with their 10%-20% of GDP budget surplus they have been running for years

-t

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

My predictions of The Chairsatan's speech this afternoon:

[1] Benzebub will announce the end of QE2
[2] The Fed will talk tough and indicate a more restrictive money policy
[3] USD will rally, precious metals drop for 3 months
[4] Broad sell off in stock markets
[5] By mid-summer, we will be back in recession territory
[6] Secretly, the Fed will keep "printing money" on a small scale
[7] TBTF banks will threaten to go bankrupt if Fed doesn't re-institute QE
[8] Aug/Sep: QE3 announced
[9] Huge rally in precious metals, USD drops like like crazy

Originally Posted by Dork. 

It looks like you've got it all figured out. Can I subscribe to your investment newsletter?

Update:
1) Check
2) Not really happened yet, but we all know it would be a lie anyways
3) Well under way. USD bottomed, EUR is tanking, gold and silver tanking as well.

Next up: major stock indices (DJ, SP500) rolling over. Started already with bad employment report and manufacturer margin squeeze.



-t

[Cold Warrior]

With that cycle at 8 and 9, do you think this would drive the markets back up again?

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by Cold Warrior 

With that cycle at 8 and 9, do you think this would drive the markets back up again?

Yes, certainly. The liquidity has to go somewhere: equities, commodities, foreign currencies, the works.

I think we're bound to go through a couple of these cycles, each time with more volatility until the system breaks beyond repair government intervention.

-t

[ShortcutToMoncton]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

I might not agree with their social system, but I for sure agree with their 10%-20% of GDP budget surplus they have been running for years

-t

Random bump: few weeks ago I had a conversation about Norway with a friend who spent some time there in the offshore oil industry. (It's important to point out as well, I think, that Norway's budget surpluses are almost entirely due to vast and advanced natural resource extraction, at least compared to most countries of that size. Running budget surpluses must be easier when your chief export is "oil & gas" haha.)

Anyways, she was commenting on the difference in work environment in that industry. In the US offshore industry, she figured workers are treated the worst - working many weeks if not months at a time is not uncommon, and offshore conditions are very poor (in terms of accomodations, lifestyle, food, etc.). She thought Canada was a step above the US - working hours are better regulated, conditions are just better in general, safety is better emphasized, and so on. Norway was easily at the top of her list - she said offshore workers could expect to work the least demanding hours, eat gourmet meals, and have all sorts of various amenities provided to them. Of course, in every instance a large oil company (private for US/Canada, state corp for Norway) was making a large amount of money.

I took it as an interesting perspective on how "government regulation" can in fact be a great positive in the sense that everyone gets to make lots of money and be very happy in this instance. Imagine nothing much else can be extrapolated but there you go.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

My predictions of The Chairsatan's speech this afternoon:

• Benzebub will announce the end of QE2
• The Fed will talk tough and indicate a more restrictive money policy
• USD will rally, precious metals drop for 3 months
• Broad sell off in stock markets
• By mid-summer, we will be back in recession territory
• Secretly, the Fed will keep "printing money" on a small scale
• TBTF banks will threaten to go bankrupt if Fed doesn't re-institute QE
• Aug/Sep: QE3 announced
• Huge rally in precious metals, USD drops like like crazy

Looks like I was spot on with every count except 3)
Silver pulled back, Gold never did considerably and is making new all-time highs.
Due to the clusterf@&k of the US finances, the USD never got significantly stronger.

Bank of America and Citi and close to a collapse, stock market is crashing, and we're back in a recession (which won't be announced until 2012, because those economists are held at gunpoint by the politicians).

-t

[el chupacabra]

Originally Posted by ShortcutToMoncton 

Random bump: few weeks ago I had a conversation about Norway with a friend who spent some time there in the offshore oil industry. (It's important to point out as well, I think, that Norway's budget surpluses are almost entirely due to vast and advanced natural resource extraction, at least compared to most countries of that size. Running budget surpluses must be easier when your chief export is "oil & gas" haha.)

Anyways, she was commenting on the difference in work environment in that industry. In the US offshore industry, she figured workers are treated the worst - working many weeks if not months at a time is not uncommon, and offshore conditions are very poor (in terms of accomodations, lifestyle, food, etc.). She thought Canada was a step above the US - working hours are better regulated, conditions are just better in general, safety is better emphasized, and so on. Norway was easily at the top of her list - she said offshore workers could expect to work the least demanding hours, eat gourmet meals, and have all sorts of various amenities provided to them. Of course, in every instance a large oil company (private for US/Canada, state corp for Norway) was making a large amount of money.

.

It doesn't sound like your friend has actually worked in the US off shore oil industry by how you describe it. You say gourmet meals? I thought that was industry standard... From my experience, in the US offshore workers get a buffet 4-5 times a day of some of the most expensive gourmet food. There's a lot of breaks; and it's one of the most high paying jobs. Yes it's hard (like real work tends to be)... and you work for weeks on end without weekends; but then again you get weeks on end off without using vacation time. I guess it depends what your preferred hours or days are; but you haven't been specific about these superior hours in Norway or what regulations you are referring to.

In US these platforms are far out and it wouldn't make sense for them to be choppered in every weekend... One person I know gets 3 weeks off at a time, in which case they can take 2 days off to relax, go on vacation to visit family or friends, or travel the world, then come back with 2 days left to unwind. That beats the standard American lifestyle of work hard for 5 days; take 2 off and cram as much drinking and random *** buddies in as possible then head back to work accomplishing nothing on your weekend, but still insisting that you're cool cuz you play hard.

I took it as an interesting perspective on how "government regulation" can in fact be a great positive in the sense that everyone gets to make lots of money and be very happy in this instance. Imagine nothing much else can be extrapolated but there you go

We have regulations in place for safety and standards on how things should be done/built in the US. It's just if you're a big corporation you don't have to follow them. I don't know how to fix this and I haven't seen anyone put anything on the table to solve this problem. Everyone just screams "more government regs!" and leaves it at that. Our government and corporations are 1 and it will be very difficult to tear them apart.

edit: I think part of the reason Canada's and Norway's regs may not work for us is just the shear size difference of our countries. It's a lot easier act corruptly in the US and not get caught just by being lost in the bureaucracy.