[kobi]

Given the current electoral maps when is McCain going to concede? Almost every swing state has swung to Obama, new Democratic voter registration numbers are through the roof in every state and the polls are showing it.

Before Chongo says watch out for the Bradley effect, even if there is a Bradley effect it won't make a difference given the number of new voters and the current electoral votes.

Obama is going to win every state that Kerry won in 2004, plus pick up Florida, Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina; all Republican strongholds. Some of them haven't voted Democratic since 1964. McCain's loss is taking effect on the senate congressional races as well.

In short, it's a bad time to be a Republican running for office.

Plain and simple the math is against McCain; McCain can't make up the electoral numbers deficit even if he was win all the toss up states and their electoral votes.

Here's RealClearPolitics.com numbers with no toss up states included:

Obama:277 Electoral Votes
McCain:158 Electoral Votes
Toss Up states: 103 Electoral Votes

RealClearPolitics.com with toss up states included:

Obama:353 Electoral Votes
McCain:185 Electoral Votes

FiveThirtyEight.com Electoral Numbers

Obama:347 Electoral Votes
McCain:190 Electoral Votes

Here's the links to both sites:

FiveThirtyEight.com: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

RealClearPolitics.com:http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo..._mccain/?map=5

[Laminar]

Didn't you hear? He conceded earlier this afternoon, because it was the only rational thing to do.

[Dakar V]

Partisan? More like Mostlysan.

[Doofy]

when will mccain concede the election?

2016.

[Uncle Skeleton]

Originally Posted by Laminar 

Didn't you hear? He conceded earlier this afternoon

Too slow. Obama conceded waaaay before him. George Washington's reanimated corpse is going to win, in a write-in campaign. It's true, I read it on wikipedia.

[Laminar]

Originally Posted by Dakar V 

Partisan? More like Mostlysan.

Supercollider? I barely even know her!

[Dakar V]

Orange you glad I posted?

[ebuddy]

Originally Posted by kobi 

Given the current electoral maps when is McCain going to concede? Almost every swing state has swung to Obama, new Democratic voter registration numbers are through the roof in every state and the polls are showing it.

All the polls have shown is that the American public is bipoller. You'll realize how silly this statement is within the next week or so.

Before Chongo says watch out for the Bradley effect, even if there is a Bradley effect it won't make a difference given the number of new voters and the current electoral votes.

The Bradley effect may absorb as many as 8 points' lead. I would certainly hope we've come some distance from publicly proclaiming support for an African-American, then in a tinge of racism change your mind at the critical moment. I suppose crazier things have happened.

New voters... would that be dead people and ex-football players?

Obama is going to win every state that Kerry won in 2004, plus pick up Florida, Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina; in all Republican strongholds.

I'm thinking he'll pull in 109% of the Democratic vote and 102% of the Republican vote.

Some of them haven't voted Democratic since 1964.

Some of them have been dead since 1964.

McCain's loss is taking effect on the senate congressional races as well.

How so?

In short, it's a bad time to be a Republican running for office.

Meh. It could lead to decades of the absolute best times for Republicans running for office.

Plain and simple the math is against McCain; McCain can't make up the electoral numbers deficit even if he was win all the toss up states and their electoral votes.
Here's RealClearPolitics.com numbers with no toss up states included:

Obama:277 Electoral Votes
McCain:158 Electoral Votes
Toss Up states: 103 Electoral Votes

RealClearPolitics.com with toss up states included:

Obama:353 Electoral Votes
McCain:185 Electoral Votes

FiveThirtyEight.com Electoral Numbers

Obama:347 Electoral Votes
McCain:190 Electoral Votes

Here's the links to both sites:

FiveThirtyEight.com: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

RealClearPolitics.com:http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo..._mccain/?map=5

Compelling numbers to be sure. I might caution that 3 weeks in an election year is an awfully long time. Conceding the election would be the dumbest thing McCain's campaign has done yet and that's saying a hell of a lot.

[Dakar V]

Well, I'm glad to see the insinuations of voter fraud come in a few weeks early.

[Chuckit]

I thought McCain was more popular among the dead, seeing as how he's practically one of their own.

[ebuddy]

Originally Posted by Dakar V 

Well, I'm glad to see the insinuations of voter fraud come in a few weeks early.

News much? Voter registration fraud is a good start don't you think?

[Doofy]

Originally Posted by Chuckit 

I thought McCain was more popular among the dead, seeing as how he's practically one of their own.

The dead do not popularise.

[ebuddy]

Originally Posted by Chuckit 

I thought McCain was more popular among the dead, seeing as how he's practically one of their own.

I would just ask that you not serve in any of the fine retirement homes in your area. Especially the active lifestyle variety.

[Laminar]

Originally Posted by Dakar V 

Orange you glad I posted?

Ten points if you can identify my reference.

[ebuddy]

Originally Posted by Laminar 

Ten points if you can identify my reference.

Something to do with an experiment that might cause a mini black hole that swallows the Earth?

[Laminar]

Originally Posted by ebuddy 

Something to do with an experiment that might cause a mini black hole that swallows the Earth?

Nope. That's about 7 years too current.

[Dakar V]

Originally Posted by ebuddy 

News much? Voter registration fraud is a good start don't you think?

How is this news? It hasn't happened before? And how is it a rebuttal to electoral projections?

Let me guess, if Obama wins, it's because of voter fraud, and if McCain wins it's despite of it?

Originally Posted by Laminar 

Ten points if you can identify my reference.

It feels familiar, but I don't know.

[stupendousman]

Originally Posted by kobi 

Given the current electoral maps when is McCain going to concede? Almost every swing state has swung to Obama, new Democratic voter registration numbers are through the roof in every state and the polls are showing it.

McCain ahead a couple of weeks ago, Obama this week. Polls are swinging back from Obama's last peak and back toward a statistical tie. State polls always follow suit a week or so later.

This is with the pollsters weighing democrats 6 points up in most cases, sometimes more, when they've NEVER been more than 3 points in any modern election (and usually not during a Presidential election year). The last Presidential election there about equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans according to exit polls. I've heard that Gallup is weighing Democrats up to 11 points over Democrats. The only way that will happen IS with voter fraud, given past precedent.

So, you figure they are weighing likely at least 3 points too high in favor of Democrats in current polls, and Obama is said to need to be 6 points up to cover the "Bradley Effect" (there are still going to be huge numbers who claim they'll vote for him, but never do) and you've still got a tie ball game.

If you think that Democrats who know polls are happy that he's only up 3 or 4 points right now iin most polls and it's trending back down towards McCain of late, you're kidding yourself.

Here's what John Zogby has to say:

http://news.bostonherald.com/news/20...ign&position=8

Apparently, you're "believing the hype". People who count their chickens WAY before they are ready to hatch are usually the most dissapointed.

Originally Posted by Dakar V 

How is this news? It hasn't happened before? And how is it a rebuttal to electoral projections?

Let me guess, if Obama wins, it's because of voter fraud, and if McCain wins it's despite of it?


It feels familiar, but I don't know.

Who is it right now that's being found to be breaking the law in a bunch of states, and who does that group support?

[Chongo]

[Laminar]

Originally Posted by Dakar V 

It feels familiar, but I don't know.

Think crustaceans. That's Lobstertainment!

[Dakar V]

Originally Posted by Laminar 

Think crustaceans. That's Lobstertainment!

Holy **** google is fast. Its already the 7th entry on the first page.

[Laminar]

Originally Posted by Dakar V 

Holy **** google is fast. Its already the 7th entry on the first page.

It's 4th now. And something that vague should probably have been worth more than ten points. Especially since I didn't even use the exact quote. It should be

Supercollider, I just met her.

The first Google result for that phrase is the reference I was thinking of.

[ebuddy]

Originally Posted by Dakar V 

How is this news?

I suppose you could take it up with the numerous news outlets reporting on it? Look, I might not be funny to you, but it's not for lack of trying.

It hasn't happened before?

Of course it has. What hasn't?

And how is it a rebuttal to electoral projections?

There's all kinds of reasons why it challenges electoral projections. You act as if "October surprise" has never happened before. McCain could get sick... changes electoral projections real quick. These reports of voter registration fraud could create sympathy for McCain. Subsequently, it might remind Obama voters how important their vote is. Like I said, 3 weeks in an election year is a long time. That's all.

You might recall a couple of things from my post;
- my numbers were pretty obviously bloated, but I find that humor is most funny when there's a ring of truth to it. There's recent news giving it the ring. Newsworthy? Maybe. Maybe not, but it is in fact in the news.
- I did not call the election either way.

Let me guess, if Obama wins, it's because of voter fraud, and if McCain wins it's despite of it?

Of course not. Because if Obama loses, it's in spite of voter fraud and if McCain loses it's because of voter fraud.

I'll be honest with you Dakar, I'm not so sure either outcome is much different. With the recent economic paranoia sweeping my great country, I'm not sure either one of them have the power I'm supposed to think they do. No reason to chastize me yet Dakar. At least wait to see if the Republican wins the Presidency before assuming our culture is this divisive.

[stupendousman]

Originally Posted by chongo 

give that man a cookie!

[dcmacdaddy]

Originally Posted by kobi 

Given the current electoral maps when is McCain going to concede? Almost every swing state has swung to Obama, new Democratic voter registration numbers are through the roof in every state and the polls are showing it.

Before Chongo says watch out for the Bradley effect, even if there is a Bradley effect it won't make a difference given the number of new voters and the current electoral votes.

Obama is going to win every state that Kerry won in 2004, plus pick up Florida, Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina; all Republican strongholds. Some of them haven't voted Democratic since 1964. McCain's loss is taking effect on the senate congressional races as well.

In short, it's a bad time to be a Republican running for office.

Plain and simple the math is against McCain; McCain can't make up the electoral numbers deficit even if he was win all the toss up states and their electoral votes.

You are high.

The only numbers that matter are those that get determined on 4 November. Until then everything else is speculation and antagonistic flame-bait.

We will know who won late in the evening on November 4th or the morning of November 5th. If your numbers are correct you can come back here and brag about it then.

[ort888]

The election is a long way away. After the swift boat ads in 2004, nothing would surprise me.

[CRASH HARDDRIVE]

Originally Posted by ort888 

The election is a long way away. After the swift boat ads in 2004, nothing would surprise me.

The Swiftboat ads are just an easy scapegoat for Kerry's colossal dislikeableness(?) that's what really did him in.

To his credit, I haven't yet seen Obama do any of the usual inane 'Photo Op stunts' to try and appear like he's 'just one of the guys' and 'down with the common man'. Maybe I've missed him doing it, or maybe the AWOL media has purposefully chosen not to run it if he has, but seriously- has anyone seen Obama go around baby-kissing, or white water rafting, or showing up 'down on the farm' or engage in any of the crap that's supposed to make him look like a "man of the peeps"?

Man, Kerry goose hunting and the other amazing FAIL-OPs he engaged in leading up to the '04 election made Republicans cringe with glee. The more of him people saw (and heard droning ON and ON), the more they disliked him.

Obama really hasn't done anything unlikeable. [I'm talking about personally, during the campaign]. He and his handlers really do have the grasp on image control, something the Kerry team couldn't find with both hands.

[ort888]

Regardless of what caused Kerry to lose, the swiftboat ads were a real low point for this country. Indefensible.

[tie]

...And he hasn't suspended his campaign once, nor had any of the problems (like high-profile leaks) that plagued Clinton's campaign. He's also run a cleaner campaign than either Clinton or McCain. I think this bodes well for his presidency.

[CRASH HARDDRIVE]

Originally Posted by ort888 

Regardless of what caused Kerry to lose, the swiftboat ads were a real low point for this country. Indefensible.

Haha! Yeah, freedom of speech is a low point. Sure.

Only to Kerry supporters.

[goMac]

Well, it would be a little... different.... for a Presidential canidate to concede in the main race, but I think McCain is pretty much done for. The last debate was his last chance to turn things around, but now there simply isn't any time left.

[Dakar V]

Originally Posted by ebuddy 

I suppose you could take it up with the numerous news outlets reporting on it? Look, I might not be funny to you, but it's not for lack of trying.

Ok, I owe you an apology, I have missed it. I'm glad I haven't to hear anything about the damnable electronic voting machines yet...

Originally Posted by ebuddy 

There's all kinds of reasons why it challenges electoral projections. You act as if "October surprise" has never happened before. McCain could get sick... changes electoral projections real quick. These reports of voter registration fraud could create sympathy for McCain. Subsequently, it might remind Obama voters how important their vote is. Like I said, 3 weeks in an election year is a long time. That's all.

That's not a challenge to the current numbers. If you're espousing a don't-count-your-chickens attitude, you have my full support. But that's not how the comment came off to me.

Originally Posted by ebuddy 

I'll be honest with you Dakar, I'm not so sure either outcome is much different. With the recent economic paranoia sweeping my great country, I'm not sure either one of them have the power I'm supposed to think they do. No reason to chastize me yet Dakar. At least wait to see if the Republican wins the Presidency before assuming our culture is this divisive.

It doesn't matter who wins the election, I think the past 8 years have illustrated quite well how divided the country is.