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Market Woes: What are you doing?
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Polwaristan
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With the global markets on a roller coaster, have you settled on a strategy to ride the currents? Selling at certain percentage drops, buying at them, holding -- or a mix?
Personally, when the S&P drops a lot, I'm putting in US$150-300 every few days that it slides. I have a mutual fund that tracks the S&P, so I'm trying to increase my holdings while decreasing my average basis. Obviously I'm taking the risk that the drops of late are short-term (3-12 month bear trend).
I've also opened a stock account to purchase TBD stocks.
I assess my overall investment risk as low, because my strategy is long-term investing (buying and holding for 30+ years).
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Mac Elite
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: München, Deutschland
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Sold some stocks at their peak times (e.g. AAPL at 147). For the rest - holding at the moment and buying tumbling stocks with low price/earnings ratio.
PB.
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Aut Caesar aut nihil.
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2001
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Good sell on the Apple. I've been holding since $20 years ago. I had intended to sell around its high in order to diversify more, but never got around to it. Now I'll keep holding until it gets to a satisfactory point.
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Dedicated MacNNer
Join Date: Feb 2007
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Decided to hold onto what I currently have invested even through this down here.
Will probably buy at the end of the month when things are hitting their lows, and then hold for one to two year.
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Mac Elite
Join Date: Sep 2006
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It is funny how this market is going. Thousands of years ago in the 1980s a daily swing of 2 or 3 percent was common. We have been accustomed to slow, steady increases for years and now a 300 point swing has everyone terrified even though as percentage it is quite small.
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Addicted to MacNN
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: The Rockies
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I wait until things are at their worst and everyone is talking about how low the market is, and then I sell. Then I wait until things are going gangbusters and everyone is talking about how high stocks are, and that's when I buy.
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Clinically Insane
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: planning a comeback !
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Shifted my 401(k) holdings to bonds until it gets better. Right now, I'm still positive for the year.
This whole subprime thing will get much worse than it is now. I predict it's going to continue through at least mid of 2008 until it gets better. Be prepared for a major bear market in the next months.
-t
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Polwaristan
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Originally Posted by BRussell
I wait until things are at their worst and everyone is talking about how low the market is, and then I sell. Then I wait until things are going gangbusters and everyone is talking about how high stocks are, and that's when I buy.
Why?
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2001
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Originally Posted by turtle777
This whole subprime thing will get much worse than it is now. I predict it's going to continue through at least mid of 2008 until it gets better. Be prepared for a major bear market in the next months.
-t
I agree. It'll continue to get worse. Hell, one analyst was predicting a Countrywide bankruptcy if they didn't find some big cash/loan infusions. That'd be a big deal if it happens.
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Addicted to MacNN
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: The Rockies
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Originally Posted by Cold Warrior
Why?
Isn't that the right way to do it?
Seriously, the way I time the market is by investing the exact same amount every month, on autopilot. When the market is low, that means I buy more shares, exactly when I should be, and when things are high, that means I'm buying less, exactly when I should be. When I get close to needing a lot of money (e.g., when I bought a house several years ago), I move it to a more conservative vehicle. Other people can experiment with the fancy stuff.
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Polwaristan
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Originally Posted by BRussell
Isn't that the right way to do it?
Seriously, the way I time the market is by investing the exact same amount every month, on autopilot. When the market is low, that means I buy more shares, exactly when I should be, and when things are high, that means I'm buying less, exactly when I should be. When I get close to needing a lot of money (e.g., when I bought a house several years ago), I move it to a more conservative vehicle. Other people can experiment with the fancy stuff.
He's saying he sells when it's low and buys high. That part threw me (unless I'm missing something). I also normally work my investing on autopilot -- dollar cost averaging.
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Banned
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Indy.
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Holding and buying. I live off of dividends.
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Addicted to MacNN
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: The Rockies
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Originally Posted by Cold Warrior
He's saying he sells when it's low and buys high. That part threw me (unless I'm missing something). I also normally work my investing on autopilot -- dollar cost averaging.
That was me, and I wasn't being serious. I was (apparently unsuccessfully) mocking the typical amateur investor who jumps on bandwagons at the last moment, trying to time the market, but in doing so ends up with exactly the wrong strategy.
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Mac Elite
Join Date: Sep 2006
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BRussell is exactly right, and he was being sarcastic. Now that the market starts working its way down, everyone talks about selling and getting out. That is exactly how to get murdered in the markets! You have to buy when everyone is sucking their thumb in terror, then sell as the market goes up. Everyone will think you're nuts, but that is how to make money. But it is totally counter-intuitive and no, I haven't perfected it either.
The perfect example is ten years ago when Wired magazine had the Pray cover for Apple. Apple was dead, everyone knew it: $3.32 a share. Last month, at $145 a share, AAPL could do no wrong, everyone wanted to buy...
(
Last edited by Sherman Homan; Sep 20, 2007 at 01:28 PM.
Reason: kant tipe good)
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Professional Poster
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: In the South
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Should I be concerned with a 401K mutual fund. I pay no attention
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Clinically Insane
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: planning a comeback !
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Originally Posted by KeriVit
Should I be concerned with a 401K mutual fund. I pay no attention
If you are not worried now, and you don't plan to retire in the next years, probably not.
I for myself decided to shift all my 401(k) holdings to bonds, beceause I expect more losses.
-t
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Addicted to MacNN
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Isle of Manhattan
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Right now I'm just saving cash, and am considering precious metals and foreign currency.
I've done well with AAPL over 20+ years, and decided to abandon stocks & bonds for now.
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"Faster, faster! 'Till the thrill of speed overcomes the fear of death." - HST
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Clinically Insane
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Vacation.
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Originally Posted by Railroader
Holding and buying. I live off of dividends.
Wise.
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Been inclined to wander... off the beaten track.
That's where there's thunder... and the wind shouts back.
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Dedicated MacNNer
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Minnesota
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I averaged down the long positions with the greatest potential. Other than that, I've been doing what I always do: day and swing trading long and short. I am staying away from options until I see how the new trading rules are establishing patterns to get an edge.
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Mac Elite
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: München, Deutschland
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At the moment I'm checking out a bunch of smaller companies with tumbling shares. New in my portfolio
- Coleman Cable, Inc.; Symbol CCIX - 1000 shares
- Balda AG (iPhone screen supplier); German WKN: 521510 - 2000 shares
On the watch list:
- Telik, Inc.; Symbol TELK - already in play?
- Transmeta; Symbol TMTA - no trades atm, maybe delisted?
Regards,
PB.
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Aut Caesar aut nihil.
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: The Intertube
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My stock portfolio consists of 75% chinese equities listed in Hong Kong. It's relatively risky, but highly rewarding so long i could stand the short-term fluctuation.
I am holding 10 stocks right now. Diversification is gold.
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Mac Elite
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: München, Deutschland
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Originally Posted by Sealobo
My stock portfolio consists of 75% chinese equities listed in Hong Kong. It's relatively risky, but highly rewarding so long i could stand the short-term fluctuation.
Interesting. You have some names / stock examples? I'd like to get into the Asian market more, but I couldn't find the time so far to get informed thoroughly. Rising Chinese companies + HK exchange are a mighty argument.
Regards
PB.
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Aut Caesar aut nihil.
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Clinically Insane
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Caught in a web of deceit.
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I sold most of my stocks in July.
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: The Intertube
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Originally Posted by Powerbook
Interesting. You have some names / stock examples? I'd like to get into the Asian market more, but I couldn't find the time so far to get informed thoroughly. Rising Chinese companies + HK exchange are a mighty argument.
Regards
PB.
In no particular order...
Bank of Communications
China Life
PetroChina
Air China
China Mobile
Let me know if you're interested in engaging into a private investment contract...
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Mac Elite
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hong Kong
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I picked up China Life from their IPO, fantastic gains.
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Mac Elite
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: München, Deutschland
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Okay got a new one:
Beazer Homes (NYSE: BZH) - 1500 shares [bought this morning at 10.82 $]]
I was watching them tumble for the past six months, now i figure the house/mortgage crisis is reaching its end. At least the part regarding stock exchange "surprises"...
PB.
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Aut Caesar aut nihil.
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Mac Elite
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: München, Deutschland
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Originally Posted by Sealobo
In no particular order...
Bank of Communications
China Life
PetroChina
Air China
China Mobile
Let me know if you're interested in engaging into a private investment contract...
I'm interested in every win-win situation...
Thanks for the stocks, they're no bargains anymore, but I have them on my watchlist.
PB.
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Aut Caesar aut nihil.
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Addicted to MacNN
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Washington, DC
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The only stocks that I own are in retirement accounts, and I'm only 25, so I'm just continuing to buy and hoping the markets keep on falling!
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"One ticket to Washington, please. I have a date with destiny."
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Mac Elite
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: München, Deutschland
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Another one in the shaken house financing market:
Northern Rock PLC (London: NRK.ISS; NASDAQ: NHRKF.NOO) - 1000 shares at 3,80 € yesterday.
Any Britons here also in the play?
PB.
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Aut Caesar aut nihil.
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: The Intertube
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Originally Posted by Powerbook
I'm interested in every win-win situation...
Thanks for the stocks, they're no bargains anymore, but I have them on my watchlist.
PB.
Just to show you the % differences since i showed the list...
STOCK closing price as of (22AUG) (20SEP) %Change
Bank of Communications (8.48) (9.00) +6.13%
China Life (32.4) (39.2) +20.99%
PetroChina (10.76) (12.38) +15.06%
Air China (6.64) (11.66) +75.60%
China Mobile (91.85) (112.7) +22.70%
The benchmark of the Hong Kong Stock market is the Hang Seng Index; in the relevant period it climbed from 22,347 points to 25,701 points (a 15.01% gain). My portfolio has outperformed the benchmark by substantial margin.
However, i have liquidated my entire portfolio just today because i think the market is generally overbought. I have moved all the capital into ONE single stock and it will do magic in precisely 5-8 months time. But i can't tell you what it is.
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Mac Elite
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: München, Deutschland
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The benchmark of the Hong Kong Stock market is the Hang Seng Index; in the relevant period it climbed from 22,347 points to 25,701 points (a 15.01% gain). My portfolio has outperformed the benchmark by substantial margin.
"Not bad soldier, not bad at all." The jump Air China did is incredible, although not foreseeable. My better stocks did between +5 and +18%, but with my high risk shares pretty much in turmoil, my whole portfolio is at some -15%. I'm awaiting a nice bunch of dividends in the next weeks, though.
However, i have liquidated my entire portfolio just today because i think the market is generally overbought. I have moved all the capital into ONE single stock and it will do magic in precisely 5-8 months time. But i can't tell you what it is.
Huh? Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the whole bunch of investors, what's moving a stock? After I got a new stock I always publish it on different investor boards, hoping to get more "flow" into those stocks. Or are you in a legal binding with the company?
Regards
PB.
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Aut Caesar aut nihil.
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Mac Elite
Join Date: Aug 2003
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Since the Loonie is now at par... I am gonna burn some PLASTIC south of the border baby...
Canadian retailers better start adjusting some prices... or risk loosing some sales to the US.
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blabba5555555555555555555555555555555555555
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: The Intertube
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Originally Posted by Powerbook
Huh? Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the whole bunch of investors, what's moving a stock? After I got a new stock I always publish it on different investor boards, hoping to get more "flow" into those stocks. Or are you in a legal binding with the company?
Regards
PB.
Some people (actually i doubt) might remember a thread started by me a while ago. I specifically recommended one stock and one stock only in Hong Kong and nobody really listened. I think the thread ended in flame.
Anyway, the stock price shot through the roof, like tripled.
This time the opportunity is even greater; 80% of the outstanding shares have, reportedly as required by local security authority, become institutional holdings in the last 12 months through new shares placement and market accumulation. The majority of the remaining 20% are largely accumulated by long term investors directly from the market (these are not reported because by regulation holding under 5% is not required to file for the general public).
This explains why the stock need no more help. As the portion of the outstanding shares being traded on board (versus those being "collected") become smaller and smaller (say less than 10%), the stock price is more efficient in adjusting to new info and its true value because less interferences (such as profit taking) are there to distort the price movement. The prep work of the imminent surge is done; when the [i]good news/i] become widely available to the general public, the large demand vs. the small portion of supply will drive the price up like nuts.
I can give you a hint. This firm is, with the blessing of the Chinese government, on verge to become a monopoly of a particular sector in China.
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Mac Elite
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: München, Deutschland
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Originally Posted by Sealobo
Some people (actually i doubt) might remember a thread started by me a while ago. I specifically recommended one stock and one stock only in Hong Kong and nobody really listened. I think the thread ended in flame.
Anyway, the stock price shot through the roof, like tripled.
I know you gave financial advice on several occasions and some people treated you like dirt. So I'd guess you don't want them to have a free ride on your tail? Well, PM or better EM me, I am sure I have some inside info for you too.
My problem with informations about the Chinese markets is that typical German banks show only the whole Hang Seng and Shanghai A index values but no connection to their single stocks or sectors...
Regards
PB.
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Aut Caesar aut nihil.
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: The Intertube
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Originally Posted by Powerbook
I know you gave financial advice on several occasions and some people treated you like dirt. So I'd guess you don't want them to have a free ride on your tail? Well, PM or better EM me, I am sure I have some inside info for you too.
My problem with informations about the Chinese markets is that typical German banks show only the whole Hang Seng and Shanghai A index values but no connection to their single stocks or sectors...
Regards
PB.
Can you trade individual stocks listed in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange through your local broker?
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Mac Enthusiast
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Portland, Oregon
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I would like to learn about stocks. Everything about the market. I'm so clueless when it comes to this. I guess that means there is reading ahead...damn.
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24" iMac 2.16GHz c2d ~ 3G ram ~ 250G ~ Superdrive ~ Pure Sexiness
15" Powerbook G4 ~ 1.5GHz ~ 1.5G ram ~ 160G ~ Combo
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: South Korea
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That is not to be doubted.
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Clinically Insane
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: planning a comeback !
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Originally Posted by irunat2am
I would like to learn about stocks. Everything about the market. I'm so clueless when it comes to this. I guess that means there is reading ahead...damn.
If you wanna be edumacated and entertained, start watching Jim Cramer - Mad Money.
-t
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Mac Elite
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: München, Deutschland
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Originally Posted by Sealobo
Can you trade individual stocks listed in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange through your local broker?
Yes, absolutely. The problem is the missing additional information (sector+competitors, quarterlies, performance, ratios...) that kept me from investing my money. I get every little information about German companies and still solid info about U.S. companies but nearly nothing about Chinese ones.
PB.
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Aut Caesar aut nihil.
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Baninated
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: In yer threads
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Originally Posted by Sherman Homan
It is funny how this market is going. Thousands of years ago in the 1980s a daily swing of 2 or 3 percent was common. We have been accustomed to slow, steady increases for years and now a 300 point swing has everyone terrified even though as percentage it is quite small.
People like drama. Drama sells news. News becomes drama queens to sell.
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Baninated
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: In yer threads
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Originally Posted by shabbasuraj
Canadian retailers better start adjusting some prices... or risk loosing some sales to the US.
Shhhhh!
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Mac Elite
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: München, Deutschland
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Okay, now free for all:
ACMH Absolute Capital Management Holding Ltd.
Symbol: A9B.FSE
ISIN: KYG006011079
WKN: A0JEGU
When their notorious investor Florian Homm quit, the stock plummeted -90%. But someone on the investor board had a line to a large scale investor who's close to the company. He gave us some info about the financial standing and the restructuring of their critical fonds. Well, I'm plus 34% now in just a few days.
Regards
PB.
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Aut Caesar aut nihil.
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Clinically Insane
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: planning a comeback !
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Yes, and you're also in for insider trading. Smart move, publishing this on teh intarwebs
-t
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Mac Elite
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: München, Deutschland
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Originally Posted by turtle777
Yes, and you're also in for insider trading. Smart move, publishing this on teh intarwebs
-t
Bah. Information by dozens of wake people posted on a trader bulletin board, some hours before the lemming masses got their run on the stock... Everyone who followed the stock closely had the same info.
PB.
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Aut Caesar aut nihil.
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