[turtle777]

The recession is over ? Really ?



Watch this time-lapse video of food stamp participation:

Time-Lapse Video Of Food Stamp Participation Rates During The "New Normal" | zero hedge

When will the politicians stop lying to us ?
The US is sliding deeper and deeper into economic troubles.

-t

[Buckaroo]

What's going on? I thought you were one of those Obama sheep.

[ghporter]

Turtle, you do understand that food stamp participation is absolutely the very last link in the economic chain, right? And that there's a pretty long lead time between "losing a job" and "eligible for food stamps," right? And that each state dispenses federal food and nutrition support by its own rules and with its own standards? Good.

I would expect the rate of food stamp participation to keep going up-though gradually slowing down-for at least another couple of years. When home values start to settle down again and begin tracking the real value of homes rather than the values currently depressed by an oversupply of "available" houses (overbuilt and/or foreclosed) we'll probably see the food stamp trend start to reverse.

I also have to take issue with the "Boones Farm" graph, too. Oh, and it's the "Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program," since October, 2008, not "food stamps." Most states use smart cards or debit cards with certain built in limits on what can be purchased with them, like real food versus chips and candy, milk versus liquor, etc. It ain't perfect, but it sure beats those coupons that became an unofficial scrip for buying any and everything.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by ghporter 

Turtle, you do understand that food stamp participation is absolutely the very last link in the economic chain, right? And that there's a pretty long lead time between "losing a job" and "eligible for food stamps," right? And that each state dispenses federal food and nutrition support by its own rules and with its own standards? Good.

Yes, there is a lag, but I doubt that's the ONLY reason why the food stamps haven't come down.

Fact is: the economy has NOT recovered, and is still in a decline.

At the current population growth rate of 1%, the US needs to create about 260,000 job EACH MONTH just to keep employment levels stable. That hasn't been happening at all.

Look at the U6 un- and underemployment rate: it's still been rising since June 2009 when the recession "ended".

Portal Seven | U6 Unemployment Rate

But even worse, look at the SGS unemployment rate that includes long-term discouraged workers (who were defined out of official existence in 1994). It's steadily rising:



Alternate Unemployment Charts

Stuff's not getting better, no matter what poLIEticians tell you.

-t

[ghporter]

Employment is also quite low in the distribution. The economy as a whole could be way up compared to two years ago but companies haven't yet figured out how to hire the workers they need. There's also a rather perverse thing going on with companies that are looking to hire-they often don't want to hire people who are currently unemployed. Several years ago this might have made sense, with the economy booming and unemployment at record lows. Today, it's short sighted and might actually be illegal - minorities are disproportionately unemployed, so it's possible that refusing to hire people who aren't already employed could be construed as job discrimination. Here's an interesting piece I heard on NPR last week about the issue.

Economic activity starts with ideas. Ideas get the idea people funding. Once they get funding they need to get a modest bit of work done to prove that their ideas work. With proof, the money people give the idea people more money and the ideas get implemented on a wider scale. This can take several years for complex product ideas, and that assumes new ideas are even being considered. Today the money people are worried about being strung up by stock holders, so they are very, very cautious-whether in an established, robust corporation or as part of a venture capital organization. Time is needed to get the "recovery" all the way down to people who are unemployed and in need of nutrition assistance. It's no coincidence that the numbers for these two groups trend similarly; while many who are employed still qualify for food assistance, most are unemployed.

As a matter of fact, for about two months, my family qualified for assistance. Coming back from an overseas assignment, my wife, our son and I had a low enough income (in Mississippi, which should help emphasize this issue) that we could have gotten food stamps. Shortly after that I was promoted and our income went up just enough so that we no longer qualified...which should also emphasize this issue.

[turtle777]

I think the main reason that businesses are not expanding, that venture capital funding is low and that new business starts are depressed is that everyone is uncertain and scared about the next dumb move of the government.

There are just too many stupid ideas in the politicians heads, and too much things that have a huge impact on businesses and their profitability:

Cap and trade, value added tax, health care socialism, ever increasing taxes, government growing like cancer, abolition of the rule of law, more privatization of profits and socialization of losses (i.e. taxpayer funded bailouts) etc. You name it.

Everyone is staying put and waiting it out.

-t

[ghporter]

Waiting things out is indeed the most likely brake on the economy right now. Waiting for capital, waiting for housing to settle out, waiting for Congress to (or not) extend unemployment benefits... Uncertainty is the "only thing to fear" right now, and there's plenty of it.

[Chongo]

Originally Posted by ghporter 

Waiting things out is indeed the most likely brake on the economy right now. Waiting for capital, waiting for housing to settle out, waiting for Congress to (or not) extend unemployment benefits... Uncertainty is the "only thing to fear" right now, and there's plenty of it.

There's more to fear than that....especially when the press gets involved!
The Only Thing We Have to Fear
The Only Thing We Have to Fear Reprise

Besides, I thought compassion was measured by how many people were on government assistance.

[ebuddy]

Boone's Farm bottle...

[OAW]

The fundamental problem here is that Turtle is equating recession with economic trouble. A recession can be over ... yet economic troubles persist. Food Stamp usage increases as the unemployment rate increases. That's certainly not rocket science. The fact of the matter is that the corporate sector is making record profits ... despite all this so-called "uncertainty". And it is sitting on the money. Why? Not because of "cap and trade" or "government spending" or "stupid ideas in politicians heads". Businesses will expand and hire workers when there is demand to support it. Period. When there is money being left on the table because a company doesn't have the capacity to fulfill demand then it will hire. But demand won't increase significantly until people's employment outlook improves. Classic Catch-22.

OAW

[turtle777]

Well, seems like the economy continues to "recover"

Latest food stamp participation is still up, with no sign of slowing down.
Explain that in light of the Bureau of Lies and Statistic's claim that unemployment has been developing positively for months now.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...%20January.png

Originally Posted by zero hedge

3. Don't forget that according to the Bernank, QE2 has already created 250,000 new jobs... all at the a modest cost of $1.3 million per job.

-t

[ghporter]

There is a deafening silence on how all these economists are characterizing the lag between "new job creation" (we're still down something around 8 million jobs since 2007 or so), and real wage improvement. Sure, there should be some sort of expected delay between jobs being created (and in theory actually filled) and income improvements-that whole two week wait for the first paycheck is a real bear-but NEW filings for nutritional assistance are still going up.

My warm fuzzy feeling about the character of the recovery is starting to cool off pretty quickly. Shouldn't most of these downward slopes have started to level out by now?

[Cold Warrior]

And we're still being spoon fed QE2. I can't imagine what'll happen when that ends.

[finboy]

Originally Posted by Cold Warrior 

And we're still being spoon fed QE2. I can't imagine what'll happen when that ends.

Keep in mind that part of the "stimulus" over the past two years (and going further back in some areas) has been to hire both new federal and state employees to beat the bushes to find as many people as possible to enroll in food stamps. I've had friends of mine who were approached several times, and even threatened in one case that they might lose other benefits (special needs benefits) if they didn't take food stamps.

Maybe that has something to do with the numbers?

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by ghporter 

There is a deafening silence on how all these economists are characterizing the lag between "new job creation" (we're still down something around 8 million jobs since 2007 or so), and real wage improvement.

The truth is that the BLS does what it can to fudge the main number, the unemployment rate.
The number that they can't as easily fudge is the Labor Participation Rate. It's ugly.

There is NO recovery AT ALL!


Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

[Cold Warrior]

Wow, lots of people leaving the workforce, probably just giving up and getting by on unemployment, food stamps, and medicare/medicaid disability.

[Lint Police]

Originally Posted by Cold Warrior 

Wow, lots of people leaving the workforce, probably just giving up and getting by on unemployment, food stamps, and medicare/medicaid disability.

My neighbor. Construction worker who lost his job over a year ago. Collects Unemployment, food stamps, barbecues a lot of steak (mmm, the smell) and just bought a gas power RC helicopter. Oh, and smokes so much pot he washes the same three shirts every day. A few weeks ago it was so thick I nearly got a high.

We used to talk, until the day I told him, "It's ok, I'll keep working so you can sit on your ass."

Our city is about to bond $70M for a high school we don't need. I am sure he can help build that.

[Cold Warrior]

WJS has a succinct article up, superficially about the lower rate but it delves into the workforce numbers -- a topic other news sources don't mention.

The page has a great chart showing unemployment since 1948. We're in dark territory that looks likely to be only the middle of a long malaise.

Jobless Rate Falls Further - WSJ.com

[turtle777]

Great article. I love this stat:

If, for example, labor force participation today were at the same level as before the recession, the jobless rate would have been 11.5% in February.

Just shows how worthless of a number the unemployment rate has become.

-t