[Snow-i]

Let me say, first off, by no means am I advocating for this or saying it's even a viable option. This is just a thought experiment I'd like all your inputs on.

What would happen if the US or NATO were to take out Kim Jong Un? Like, not invade, no airstrikes, etc, just straight up assassinate him with no collateral damage? Or even more to the point if he had a massive heart attack and died on his own? What do you believe the repercussions for NK, SK & China would be? Would the country fall even further into a state of collapse? Be absorbed by China? Be put on a path to unification with SK? Who would run the country in the interim? Civil war? Power vacuum?

The issue with a government centered on one man as a deity or demigod is that it introduces a single point of failure for the government, especially without any backups (heirs) as is the case now.

[OAW]

The problem with assassinating heads of state is that "What goes for the goose goes for the gander". There is essentially and unspoken rule in the international community that you just don't go there. If for no other reason than because your own leader can be targeted. But as for North Korea ... maybe the regime would be glad to be rid of Kim Jong Un? Then again they can unleash enough artillery firepower to practically level Seoul in South Korea as retaliation. That's a very dangerous game to play.

OAW

[Snow-i]

Originally Posted by OAW 

The problem with assassinating heads of state is that "What goes for the goose goes for the gander". There is essentially and unspoken rule in the international community that you just don't go there. If for no other reason than because your own leader can be targeted. But as for North Korea ... maybe the regime would be glad to be rid of Kim Jong Un? Then again they can unleash enough artillery firepower to practically level Seoul in South Korea as retaliation. That's a very dangerous game to play.

OAW

I totally agree with your assessment - I'm just wondering what the fallout would be for NK itself putting aside the ramifications from the US's standpoint.

This might be closer to what I'm trying to get at - Instead of assassination, let's use the hypothetical that he has a stroke and dies tomorrow on his own. What would or could happen to NK?

[The Final Dakar]

John Kasich was supposed to be the 'moderate'.

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by Snow-i 

I totally agree with your assessment - I'm just wondering what the fallout would be for NK itself putting aside the ramifications from the US's standpoint.

This might be closer to what I'm trying to get at - Instead of assassination, let's use the hypothetical that he has a stroke and dies tomorrow on his own. What would or could happen to NK?

Considering rumors were he had to solidify his power against the heads of military, that seems like the obvious first response. I'm curious if China might move in during a power vacuum though.

[OAW]

Originally Posted by Snow-i 

I totally agree with your assessment - I'm just wondering what the fallout would be for NK itself putting aside the ramifications from the US's standpoint.

This might be closer to what I'm trying to get at - Instead of assassination, let's use the hypothetical that he has a stroke and dies tomorrow on his own. What would or could happen to NK?

Hard to say. We have to be honest with ourselves and realize that we know virtually nothing about the inner workings of the North Korean regime. It is, after all, one of the most secretive countries on earth. But if I had to hazard a guess I think there would be some sort of power struggle on who would take over. China would likely back its favored choice in order to promote stability on the Korean Peninsula. What they don't want to see is North Korea re-unified with South Korea. Nor do they want to see North Korea become a part of China. They want a "client state" there to serve as a buffer between the Chinese border and US forces in the region.

OAW

[Waragainstsleep]

I suspect none of us knows enough about the various generals who would attempt to seize power in Kim's absence and whether or not the public would accept any of them.

[reader50]

Originally Posted by OAW 

What they {China} don't want to see is North Korea re-unified with South Korea. Nor do they want to see North Korea become a part of China. They want a "client state" there to serve as a buffer between the Chinese border and US forces in the region.

I think China is getting tired of the childish games Kim keeps playing, and of having an unstable nuclear power just across the border. China values stability around its borders, and might prefer a unified Korea to the current nonsense. Especially if the agreement either removed US troops & bases, or limited them to remain below the DMZ.

[Waragainstsleep]

I should clarify that I'm inclined to think if Kim was taken out by a sniper of unknown origin, its more likely that NK would descend into chaos and/or civil war between the remaining military leaders unless one of them stands above the others in status or if Kim has any heir apparent that a general can ally with to seize power with public support.