I posted this in the Consumer Hardware forum, but I think it belongs in here.
This past weekend I messed up my Lion install by fiddling with it, so I restored via the Lion Recovery HD to the last known good backup, which in this case wasn't the latest one but the one from the day before (Friday 12 August).
That worked fine, but to my dismay Time Machine decided it would copy _everything_ (all 196 GB) onto the Time Capsule again. After a long time Lion reported that the Time Capsule disk was full and that old backups had been deleted to make space. Fine, no big deal, just means that my oldest backup was April 2011 and not September 2010.
But then, on the next backup, Lion spent an age "Cleaning Up Old Backups" with the end result that my oldest backup is now from 14 August; _after_ the one I restored from.
Yet my Time Capsule still thinks there's only 40 GB free. Shouldn't there be at least 196 GB free now?