[ambush]

do you think the united states are falling as an economical superpower?

The economy of the US has passed from a self-sufficient structure (pre ww2) to a dependant structure. Since the 70es, there is a deficit. This means the Export/Import does not balance. The United States buy more form the outside than they export. Money *is* leaving the country.

Even the new technologies sector is falling... (e.g... Chinese company buying IBM's PC subdivisary, etc.) ... cars (GM)... we see new examples every day ...

I think that one day or the other, the US will have to accept that fact... It may be sad, but China will be the new #1. And they cannot really stop it, even if they try. Free trade made this happen. Do you think they could be a military threat to China? Hmm, no, tho they are threatening to smaller countries like Iraq, but not China. China will impose the rules from *now on*.

The turning point of this historical will be the Chinese Olympic games... no doubt in my mind...

How are americans reacting to that? this is an interesting sociology phenomenon...

this even ressembles they way the Roman empire fell....

from census.gov

Trade Deficit Increases in April

The Nation’s international deficit in goods and services increased to $57.0 billion in April from $53.6 billion (revised) in March, as imports increased more than exports. (10 June 2005)

+ ~ 3 billion in one month?

discuss.

Oh and for the naysayers, even the CIA has predicted this

There's no sign that this will stop any time soon, either. Americans will not stop demanding goods, and the facilities will not move from other countries to the US.

[Yose]

This will be an interesting thread to read.

[Railroader]

One of the many reasons I will only buy American Made cars from American companies. People don't realize how much product and service goes into an automobile.

I also only buy USA made clothing from Unionized companies now.

And if I ever talk to a service person based in any country than the US I will no longer do business with that company.

I'll admit a perverse satisfaction when I go to Canada and see USA made cars there. I love it when their money flows this way. And when I see Ontario license plates on the cars in our local shopping centers. VERY NICE.

[Ganesha]

China will pass the US in economic power one day. It's a simple fact of the population imbalance. (1.3 billion vs 0.3 billion).

However, China will become a large consumerist nation (like the US), once it does we will see a swing in the world cheap labor base to where it's even cheaper to make and ship things.

[ambush]

Kiljoy, you can rejoice, but you use products from other countries without even knowing. Take your computer fro example. Designed in California, Assembled in Taiwan.

Also, in 2000 we imported 229 billion from you, but you imported 334 billionfrom us (that's -~100 billion for you ) . Yes, you might see Ontario people in your malls (yes, I feel your frustration... they also come here to get drunk since the legal age is 18), but there are things you don't see too. The export is growing too, actually, as US learns to depend not only on far-away countries, but closer countries like Canada. Oh and 25% of our export were vehicles. It's also growing, unfortunately for you and your work comrades.

http://strategis.ic.gc.ca/epic/inter...html#relations

The fact is money is actually flowing our way.

You should know this... MI's auto industry is falling since what? 1970? Oh.. 1970... wait.. this date sounds familiar... oh yes, it's when your trade balance began "balancing" the wrong way

But it's better if you don't know it, I reckon. This way, we can benefit even more

Thank you for your business with Canada ^_^

[simonjames]

Its fairly obvious that China will become the new dominating economy very soon but they are also quickly becoming the world's largest polluter. Given their attitude to human rights and the impact their industries already have on the environment where is the world going to be 20 years from now?

I am not sure if this is an urban myth or not but I heard that China shut down industry anywhere near the International Olympic committee were to visit up to a month prior to the visit just to clear the air.

[ambush]

Originally Posted by simonjames

Its fairly obvious that China will become the new dominating economy very soon but they are also quickly becoming the world's largest polluter. Given their attitude to human rights and the impact their industries already have on the environment where is the world going to be 20 years from now?

I am not sure if this is an urban myth or not but I heard that China shut down industry anywhere near the International Olympic committee were to visit up to a month prior to the visit just to clear the air.

But then your country didn't even sign Kyoto.

I'm also very confident that China will become more and more democratic, just like the rest of the world is marching towards democracy (except in older democratic countries like the US, the UK and France, where democracy is actually falling into oligarchy...)

[JoshuaZ]

Don't forget India. A massive population that is also coming into maturity in the global market place. I keep thinking that one day India and China will form some super alliance together, economically and militarily, and be the biggest powerhouse ever. Think 2.6 billion people working together in any fashion. Think Indian Software and Chinese Hardware. Now thats a fun thought.

We in the US often forget that to compete in a global market, where everyone is on the same level, that in order for one place to gain another has to give. The US can't be a protectionist economy because in the long run it hurts us more then anyone else. Being a free market society we must adapt to changes. If someone can do it as good, or better, for cheaper then by all means they should be the ones doing it. If we lose out on manufacturing in the US we should shift our workforce elsewhere, or to a new industry. If we don't adapt to a world market, we will lose out.

Railrunner, I find it hard to believe that you actually follow that philosophy. Its stupid, and I imagine extremely tough to actually do. Its like not letting your kids get happy meals, because the toys are made in China. People like you are very narrow nighted.

Why oh why did I learn Japanese and not Chinese.... theres still time...

[JoshuaZ]

Originally Posted by simonjames

I am not sure if this is an urban myth or not but I heard that China shut down industry anywhere near the International Olympic committee were to visit up to a month prior to the visit just to clear the air.

Partially true. When I was in China a year and a half ago our Chinese tour guides told us that such measures were happening around Beijing. The city needed it though, man does it make LA look clean. Though it is going to be one damn cool impressive city come Olympics times. Damn impressive. So much potential in China. (They were once the #1 civilization in the world, they may come back and do it again. Isn't history fun kids!)

[ambush]

Originally Posted by JoshuaZ

Don't forget India. A massive population that is also coming into maturity in the global market place. I keep thinking that one day India and China will form some super alliance together, economically and militarily, and be the biggest powerhouse ever. Think 2.6 billion people working together in any fashion. Think Indian Software and Chinese Hardware. Now thats a fun thought.

We in the US often forget that to compete in a global market, where everyone is on the same level, that in order for one place to gain another has to give. The US can't be a protectionist economy because in the long run it hurts us more then anyone else. Being a free market society we must adapt to changes. If someone can do it as good, or better, for cheaper then by all means they should be the ones doing it. If we lose out on manufacturing in the US we should shift our workforce elsewhere, or to a new industry. If we don't adapt to a world market, we will lose out.

Railrunner, I find it hard to believe that you actually follow that philosophy. Its stupid, and I imagine extremely tough to actually do. Its like not letting your kids get happy meals, because the toys are made in China. People like you are very narrow nighted.

Why oh why did I learn Japanese and not Chinese.... theres still time...

The fact is that the US will lose in the free market, because they currently demand more than they produce. US citizens are saving like 0.0% of their income, average.

They should start reorganizing their workforce now, or they will lose even more. The problem is, manufacturing is a part of your history...

But I think the US is fully aware of that, and that's why they invented Global Terrorism... so they can make believe that they are more useful than they actually are. Fun fun fun.

We are so at a critical point in history. It's unbelievable. 5 years ago, I wish I had lived i the 70es because it seemed way more exciting. Now I'm so glad to live this important moment of history... China emerging as the new superpower.

Hopefully, the US political figures will react peacefully and accept their new place and concentrate on specific industries instead of acting like sore losers.

[Railroader]

Originally Posted by ambush

Kiljoy,

I'm very satisfied I am a "kiljoy" to you. You couldn't come up with an unwitty play on my new nick? How uncreative of you.

Originally Posted by ambush

you can rejoice,

I rejoice daily. God is amazing.

Originally Posted by ambush

but you use products from other countries without even knowing.

You ignorance is showing. I know exactly where my computer is made.

Originally Posted by ambush

Take your computer fro example. Designed in California, Assembled in Taiwan.

You sure?

Originally Posted by ambush

Also, in 2000 we imported 229 billion from you, but you imported 334 billionfrom us (that's -~100 billion for you ) .

Maybe in loonies. In USD it's only about 32 cents.

Originally Posted by ambush

Yes, you might see Ontario people in your malls

I have no frustration with Ontario people in my malls. I welcome their spending. It makes my economy grow and your shrink!

Originally Posted by ambush

(yes, I feel your frustration... they also come here to get drunk since the legal age is 18)

We are glad to get rid of the law breakers.

Originally Posted by ambush

but there are things you don't see too.

Are the invisible? Or just hiding really good?

Originally Posted by ambush

The export is growing too, actually, as US learns to depend not only on far-away countries, but closer countries like Canada.

Depend? You assume all money is made by manufacturing things? We'll see you in the Information Age in the next century.

Originally Posted by ambush

Oh and 25% of our export were vehicles.

Are you claiming that Canada exports more cars to the US than the US exports to Canada?!?! HA HA!!!

Originally Posted by ambush

It's also growing, unfortunately for you and your work comrades.

(See the "Information Age" reference above.) Are you guys calling each other "comrades" now? I knew you guys were socialists...

Originally Posted by ambush

The fact is money is actually flowing our way.

By way of trade. As in "goods". (See the "Information Age" reference above.)

Originally Posted by ambush

You should know this... MI's auto industry is falling since what? 1970? Oh.. 1970...

You are truly ignorant about the automotive industry as you have proven in previous threads. Remember, even a fool is though wise if he holds his tongue.

Originally Posted by ambush

wait.. this date sounds familiar... oh yes, it's when your trade balance began "balancing" the wrong way

(See the "Information Age" reference above.)

Originally Posted by ambush

But it's better if you don't know it, I reckon. This way, we can benefit even more

(See the "Information Age" reference above.)

Originally Posted by ambush

Thank you for your business with Canada ^_^

(See the "Information Age" reference above.)

[Railroader]

Originally Posted by ambush

manufacturing is a part of your history...

(See the "Information Age" reference above.)

[ambush]

Well, as Kiljoy just proved it, denial will surely be one reaction

Oh and stop spamming. It makes you sound frustrated or sum'tin.

FYI, the numbers are ALL in US dollars

Canada - US Trade (Billions of US Dollars)

[DeathMan]

Ambushes Next Post: Organized Religion is for Nazis (not really a religious post)

[ambush]

Originally Posted by DeathMan

Ambushes Next Post: Organized Religion is for Nazis (not really a religious post)

but this is about history and economy.. not just politics...

as long as everyone stays on topic, this thread will be useful and interesting

[Railroader]

Originally Posted by DeathMan

Ambushes Next Post: Organized Religion is for Nazis (not really a religious post)

or it could be...

"OMG i":M so hiGH. I AM IMAGINEING MY THUMB IS A JOINT!!@@!!!

[JoshuaZ]

No one ever things about the historians, but really, we're everywhere. Lurking behind the book shelves, around the corner, in your refrigerator. Waiting for a thread like this to pop out and whip some historical butt.

Yeah Ambush, this will be a fun time to be alive. Though really, any time being alive is good time being alive in many ways.

[Railroader]

Originally Posted by ambush

Well, as Kiljoy just proved it, denial will surely be one reaction

Oh and stop spamming. It makes you sound frustrated or sum'tin.

FYI, the numbers are ALL in US dollars

You do understand that the US has been leaving the Industrial Age and is entering the Information Age? Do you want Canada to remain in the Industrial Age?

Here's a quick primer for ya:

Survive the Transition:
Industrial Age to Information Age
by Ray Strackbein

We are a civilization in transition. Industrial Age rules no longer work, yet Information Age rules are not widely known. We are in the Information Revolution, the transition to the Information Age from the Industrial Age. These three actions will help us move into the Information Age:

Unlearn Industrial Age Misinformation
Discover Information Age rules
Adopt the network as your metaphor for life

-Unlearn Industrial Age Misinformation

The transition to the Information Age requires learning new Information Age concepts, and sometimes requires unlearning old Industrial Age traditions. Grasping new spins on old information can be even more difficult than absorbing new information.

-The Industrial Age Metaphor was the assembly line.

Back in the Industrial Age, we worshiped the assembly line. We could produce anything. The Industrial Age method was to start with a batch of standard raw materials, perform standard operations on them, and get a standard product at the end. The Industrial Age became abusive when uniform standards were applied to people as well as products. People were expected to have uniform training, beliefs, and values.

Our education system still performs uniform operations on its childlike raw materials. The goal is to mold our children into uniform products, each passed with a quality assurance certificate: a diploma.

-Discover Information Age Rules

The primary cause of society's problems is that we still teach Industrial Age concepts and create even more Industrial Age rules.

We live in the Information Age! Industrial Age rules and values don't work in the Information Age yet people judge us by old Industrial Age traditions. We do the right things and are penalized.

We are in a double bind. We can reduce the double binds by discovering, understanding, using, and teaching new Information Age methods, rules and values. It is time to transition from the abusive Industrial Age to the Information Age. It is time to write and teach the rules for the Information Age.

-New Metaphors

As we move from the Industrial Age to the Information Age, we are adopting new metaphors. The metaphor of the Information Age is the network. Want a job? Network! Want to make more sales? Network!

The most profound contrast between the of the Industrial Age and the Information Age is the contrast between the assembly line and the network. The great revelation behind the network metaphor is that we don't lose our individual identity when we combine our strengths.

-The American dream is to network

Our founders designed the Information Age into our country when they declared each individual to be uniquely valuable and affirmed our right to communicate.

The dream of Americans is to network. We want to be the best we can be and reach out and touch everyone and everything. Phrased traditionally, we want life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

The United States was founded as a network. The Bill of Rights encourages each of us to be unique and to communicate. It guarantees that we cannot be penalized for what we believe or say. It promises us that we can develop our own beliefs. It guarantees our right to communicate. Each individual is a node on our network. Each person brings unique experiences and talents to our society.

The American Revolution set the stage for the Information Revolution.

EDIT: one "industrial" to "information".

[ambush]

Originally Posted by JoshuaZ

No one ever things about the historians, but really, we're everywhere. Lurking behind the book shelves, around the corner, in your refrigerator. Waiting for a thread like this to pop out and whip some historical butt.

Yeah Ambush, this will be a fun time to be alive. Though really, any time being alive is good time being alive in many ways.

I'm currently reading "The Fall of the American Empire" (hence the name/inspiration of the thread) by french historian "Emmanuel Todd."

*very* interesting read. he backs up everything with hard facts... very very very good book.

... yes, Kilbey, information age... but you still need to buy goods (which you will need to import, since you're shifting to the "information age").. I don't see your point... also: it's not only the US who's entering the information age, since education is on the rise globally.

[JoshuaZ]

Originally Posted by Railroader

You do understand that the US has been leaving the Industrial Age and is entering the Industrial Age? Do you want Canada to remain in the Industrial Age?

Here's a quick primer for ya:

It can't be all that bad, because apparently one industrial age leads to another industrial age....

[Railroader]

Originally Posted by ambush

"The Fall of the American Empire" (hence the name/inspiration of the thread) by french historian "Emmanuel Todd."

Fiction?

Originally Posted by ambush

... yes, Kilbey, information age... but you still need to buy goods.. I don't see your point... it's not only the US who's entering the information age...

And you still need to pay for information. See the point now?

[brapper]

my money's on india

[JoshuaZ]

Originally Posted by brapper

my money's on india

Plus their food is great. So is Chinese. Darn... now I'm hungry.

[ambush]

Originally Posted by Railroader

Fiction?

And you still need to pay for information. See the point now?

Dude, I don't want to be rude, but this guy must have like infinity more credibility than you
The guy predicted the fall of the USSR... he's got a PhD in History at Cambridge... for some reasons, I think I'll trust him instead of you

http://www.theglobalist.com/DBWeb/Au...x?AuthorId=494

http://www.herodote.net/personneTodd.htm

Yes, sell information. We're already doing it, aren't we? Read my previous post... Will information alone make you live? No? you still need food, shelter, clothes, gadgets, etc. more and more of the latter are made in distant countries, unfortunately.

But I'm sure the US will take great advantage of their education to leave the old industries in the background... in fact, they must do it now to survive in a world governed by free trade.

[Railroader]

Originally Posted by ambush

Yes, sell information. We're already doing it, aren't we? Read my previous post... Will information alone make you live? No? you still need food, shelter, clothes, gadgets, etc. more and more of the latter are made in distant countries, unfortunately.

But I'm sure the US will take great advantage of their education to leave the old industries in the background... in fact, they must do it now to survive in a world governed by free trade.

I expect a 10 page paper on the topic of the advancement from the Industrial Age to the Information Age on my desk in a week. You have a lot to learn frenchie.

[ambush]

I do have a lot to learn. That's why I'm going to uni really soon now
Hmmm.. history or psychology... tough calllll....

And yes, the topic of advancement to the information age fascinates me... but I don't see how it will make the US a superpower again.... care to expand on that (or actually refute my previous posts...)

I'm glad we can finally have a civilized discussion, but it seems that you're running out of arguments here..

and I'm glad you call me frenchie

[Hawkeye_a]

On the Coming Decline and Fall of the American Empire - Professor Johan Galtung


On the Coming Decline and Fall of the American Empire - Professor Johan Galtung (streaming audio, or a speech given at Curtin University, Perth) Scrub to about the 13th minute of the file (thats when it begins).

It's worth listening to, to get an educated account of events that have come to pass in the previous 2-3 decades, and a pragmatic prediction of whats to come.

From a personal perspective, the fall of 'America' has almost nothing to do with economics, politics or military might. People around the globe admired the 'idea' of America....land of the free, home of the brave, equality, freedom of speech, pursuit of happiness. A lot of those sentiments have vanished, and replaced with indifference and sometimes hostility towards the U.S, especially given it's foreign policy over the last 20 years, and more recently domestic policy. And i think in that sence.... the America empire is crumbling. It's not dying physically, it's just dying in the hearts of people around the world.

Cheers.

[Alezone]

China + India = Future.

Railroader: lots of parts on your car are made in China. And if you only buy US Made clothing, you're missing out, BIG.

[Oisín]

Originally Posted by simonjames

I am not sure if this is an urban myth or not but I heard that China shut down industry anywhere near the International Olympic committee were to visit up to a month prior to the visit just to clear the air.

I haven't heard of that. I'm not saying it's an urban myth for sure, but it doesn't seem very likely.

Usually, when important people are coming to visit, or even when there's just a holiday coming up (Spring Festival, Lantern Festival, Mid-Autumn Festival, etc.), they spray some chemical thingy (the name of which I used know, but now do not) over the clouds. This gives one or two days of extremely heavy rain (seriously heavy rain, monsoon-like), and then the clouds all dissipate and disappear, leaving an unbelievably clear, blue sky, and giving the smog a chance to get away.

This seems more of a reasonable (economically) and practical method than shutting down industry for a month, though it's a lot more pollutant as well.

Originally Posted by JoshuaZ

Why oh why did I learn Japanese and not Chinese.... theres still time...

Na na na na na

[smacintush]

Yeah, remember when Japan was a threat? And lets not forget to fear the E.U. !

China's banking system and it's deliberate undervaluing of the Yuan are China's weaknesses. The economic boom there now is a BUBBLE. It's not built upon a solid base and reality will set in sooner or later.

They may very do everything you say, but I say long term economic stabiility are not in China's future.

[Oisín]

Originally Posted by smacintush

China's banking system and it's deliberate undervaluing of the Yuan are China's weaknesses. The economic boom there now is a BUBBLE. It's not built upon a solid base and reality will set in sooner or later.

They may very do everything you say, but I say long term economic stabiility are not in China's future.

The problem is they didn't have any base, solid or not, to build an economic boom on, so they had to just create an economic boom and hope that that would create a solid base to build a more long-term stable economy on. That hasn't really happened as much as they'd hoped (though it is better now than when they started), so now they're making the grave mistake (I fear) of trying to force their economic boom even further in order to force-create a solid base. It might still work, if they're really lucky; but I fear it'll fall flat on its ass, flat on their faces, and leave them with no other option than building up a solid economy slowly (as in 50-100 years).

[Captain Obvious]

Ehh, I’m not worried about the Chinese.

They are using their labor market to leverage themselves into becoming the world’s manufacturing center. Which would be great if there wasn’t such a huge discrepancy between the freedoms the social classes there enjoy. If this were 100 years ago this may not be as large an issue but with the proliferation of information through television, radio, the internet, and such an increase in literacy everyone not enjoying all the benefits of being a citizen of a superpower is going to get pissed. As the majority of Chinese become just a tad bit more educated and informed you are not going to have them be as cooperative working and living under those conditions as they are today. You are going to see huge civil unrest and with that an increasingly unstable government.

Not to mention the fact that as they become a more open nation the influence of the world religions seeping in and taking root with the populace is going seriously jeopardize the unity of the country and the order the government now enjoys.

Right now the government can more easily control what information streams into the country but we all know that isn’t going to go on much longer.

China is pretty much going to fold in on itself at some point in the next 50 years and it will take the next generation after that to figure out how to get their act together. I say India has a far better chance of being a stable economic superpower. But what is certain to happen is that Canada is going to continue to rape its natural resources until they have nothing left to sell. Their piss poor manufacturing sure won’t help them. And if the US isn't buying what they have left because we're getting it from China and India they are totally fu*ked. It’s a damned good thing they have a population smaller than California so they can all squeeze into Nova Scotia as they wait for the trees to grow back.

[jbartone]

Originally Posted by Ganesha

China will pass the US in economic power one day. It's a simple fact of the population imbalance. (1.3 billion vs 0.3 billion).

Meh. Chinas age structure is going to become seriously screwed up in the coming decades. By 2050, China is expected to have around 400 million people over the age of 60.

[ambush]

Originally Posted by Captain Obvious

Ehh, I’m not worried about the Chinese.

They are using their labor market to leverage themselves into becoming the world’s manufacturing center. Which would be great if there wasn’t such a huge discrepancy between the freedoms the social classes there enjoy. If this were 100 years ago this may not be as large an issue but with the proliferation of information through television, radio, the internet, and such an increase in literacy everyone not enjoying all the benefits of being a citizen of a superpower is going to get pissed. As the majority of Chinese become just a tad bit more educated and informed you are not going to have them be as cooperative working and living under those conditions as they are today. You are going to see huge civil unrest and with that an increasingly unstable government.

Not to mention the fact that as they become a more open nation the influence of the world religions seeping in and taking root with the populace is going seriously jeopardize the unity of the country and the order the government now enjoys.

Right now the government can more easily control what information streams into the country but we all know that isn’t going to go on much longer.

China is pretty much going to fold in on itself at some point in the next 50 years and it will take the next generation after that to figure out how to get their act together. I say India has a far better chance of being a stable economic superpower. But what is certain to happen is that Canada is going to continue to rape its natural resources until they have nothing left to sell. Their piss poor manufacturing sure won’t help them. And if the US isn't buying what they have left because we're getting it from China and India they are totally fu*ked. It’s a damned good thing they have a population smaller than California so they can all squeeze into Nova Scotia as they wait for the trees to grow back.

China becomes increasingly democratic as the country grows. I'm with on this, the regime as it is will not last. Educated people don't like to be bossed around this way. So yes there will no doubt be a revolution. History shows us that educated populations choose democracy. So this is what is going to happen. It might not be as flawed as the United States' democracy, and that's what I'm getting excited about.

On the other hand, the government has been doing a good job of controling its citizens, and it could last years.

I don't see how a democratic revolution would be bad, Captain Obvious. Oh wait, let me see, it could mean that your country will have nothing to whine about.

About Canada. Have you ever heard of a resource named "Water"? We have that a lot. It's becoming increasingly rare, too http://www.ecoworld.org/Home/Articles2.cfm?TID=326
Also, electricity. It seems you like to import that from us, too.

Fortunately for Québec citizens, we have them both in very large quantities Oh and NYC is just below us

About the trees, well I honestly think you're being too pessimistic.

The tone of your reply shows how some americans are getting very nervous about this.

[kmkkid]

I'll just be happy when the $CAD surpasses the $USD, in oh I'd say less than a years time now.



Chris

[spatterson]

Originally Posted by Railroader

or it could be...

"OMG i":M so hiGH. I AM IMAGINEING MY THUMB IS A JOINT!!@@!!!

I am trying seriously hard to stay on topic, but I can't resist... Railroader, as a Christian you sure don't act like one... Just thought I would put in my two cents...

Also, the computer that you are typing on was most likely made in Taiwan, or that keyboard, or iPod... whatever; you use something that is made from a foreign country in your household... so why even say that you use only American products? This my friend is true ignorance.

Narrow minded people, such as yourself, represents the true reason why the American economy is failing... Because simply, we need to move to sectors that we can actually compete with, such as medicine, and other such tech... Forget the crappy manufacturing that this country does (*cough* GM * cough*), and focus on the stuff that we can actually compete with... such as GE, and their medical products. Or Apple ad its software…

One thing I can’t stand is narrow minded people…

I’m American and very proud of our country, and I know that someday we will cease to be a superpower, and you know what. I’m ok with that, I truly am. I think that we could better ourselves from such humbleness.

[mitchell_pgh]

I see us slipping to #3... but holding there for the foreseeable future.

[mitchell_pgh]

Originally Posted by Ganesha

China will pass the US in economic power one day. It's a simple fact of the population imbalance. (1.3 billion vs 0.3 billion).

However, China will become a large consumerist nation (like the US), once it does we will see a swing in the world cheap labor base to where it's even cheaper to make and ship things.

Here is some interesting information.


CHINA 2005 2025
Births per 1,000 population.................... 13 11
Deaths per 1,000 population.................... 7 8
Rate of natural increase (percent)............. 0.6 0.2
Annual rate of growth (percent)................ 0.6 0.2
Life expectancy at birth (years)............... 72.3 77.2
Infant deaths per 1,000 live births............ 24 11
Total fertility rate (per woman)............... 1.7 1.8


USA 2005 2025
Births per 1,000 population.................... 14 14
Deaths per 1,000 population.................... 8 9
Rate of natural increase (percent)............. 0.6 0.5
Annual rate of growth (percent)................ 0.9 0.8
Life expectancy at birth (years)............... 77.7 80.5
Infant deaths per 1,000 live births............ 6 5
Total fertility rate (per woman)............... 2.1 2.2


RUSSIA 2005 2025
Births per 1,000 population.................... 10 8
Deaths per 1,000 population.................... 15 15
Rate of natural increase (percent)............. -0.5 -0.7
Annual rate of growth (percent)................ -0.4 -0.6
Life expectancy at birth (years)............... 67.1 70.5
Infant deaths per 1,000 live births............ 15 10
Total fertility rate (per woman)............... 1.3 1.5

[ambush]

Historically, lower fertility rates and better education lead to democracy...

I'm quoting Todd here...

[Oisín]

(I'm quite tired and wasn't up to reading the whole rest of this thread, so I'll just reply to the first/only paragraph that I read thoroughly)

Originally Posted by Captain Obvious

As the majority of Chinese become just a tad bit more educated and informed you are not going to have them be as cooperative working and living under those conditions as they are today. You are going to see huge civil unrest and with that an increasingly unstable government.

There's already plenty of civil unrest in China: it's reported that there are somewhere between 30 and 50 large- or semilarge-scale demonstrations for better civil/human rights every day throughout the country.

There are large separatist and anti-government movements, many of which are constantly on the verge of erupting into civil war; not only in places such as Tibet and Taiwan (which is not really an integral part of China, but still gives the government plenty of headaches), but also among the Uyghurs in Xinjiang, among the Hui (Muslim) minority, mostly in Ningxia (if I remember correctly), and in the old Manchurian parts of the country (North-West corner: Heilongjiang, Liaoning, and Jilin).

To top this off, there are also often some quite big clashes in the cities because of the inferior social, economic, political situation of the peasant migrant workers doing all the crappy work there.

So they've got their plates full with civil unrest already. You know why this hasn't brought the government down yet? Media censorship. Plain and simple. Those from Qinghai never find out that there were 33 demonstrations scattered around the country yesterday, because newspapers and television/radio stations from the places these demonstrations took place never make it outside their own local realms. The only national media (CCTV1, the major newspapers and radio stations, as well as the Internet) are censored heavily to make sure that the demonstration stories are never covered.

Those of you who say that the roads of information will bring about more civil unrest sooner or later (well, something to that effect), don't hold your breath. People have been saying that for the past 50 years, and so far, it hasn't come true; on the contrary, no more than a few months ago, the government decided to tighten media censorship, rather than loosen it. In my opinion, it will not be the loosening up of the Chinese media that eventually bring about the fall of the current Chinese system of government; it is more likely to be the other way around, that the media will not start opening up until the government has fallen.

A very good book (and hardly boring at all) to read about this particular topic (I just wrote a paper about it a few weeks ago) is Media, Market, and Democracy—Between the Party Line and the Bottom Line by Zhao Yuezhi (you can even read the first chapter directly from Amazon—cool feature!).

[Zimphire]

[Oisín]

Aww, that poor dead horse...

It doesn't even know it's only proverbial.

[Zimphire]

Originally Posted by Oisín

It doesn't even know it's only proverbial.

[tavilach]

Give me a break, ambush. You knew this would erupt in a "My country is better than yours!" dispute, and yet you claim that it's "not really politics"? Perhaps what you said is more economics than politics, but because you knew what would come of it, I think it was a blatant act of carelessness to post this thread here.

Now, about this dumb dispute...

Power shifts, people. It's not like we're going to start seeing China, India, Japan, and Somalia ridiculing the US for being third world. Sure, the US will be ridiculed for other reasons, but that's an entirely different topic .

By the way, how is this anything like the fall of the Roman empire? Where are the barbarians?

[kmkkid]

Originally Posted by tavilach

Give me a break, ambush. You knew this would erupt in a "My country is better than yours!" dispute, and yet you claim that it's "not really politics"? Perhaps what you said is more economics than politics, but because you knew what would come of it, I think it was a blatant act of carelessness to post this thread here.

Now, about this dumb dispute...

Power shifts, people. It's not like the US is going to become a third world country, ridiculed by countries such as China, India, Canada, and Somalia.

By the way, how is this anything like the fall of the Roman empire? Where are the barbarians?

They're ridiculed by us Canadians (and the rest of the world) and they arnt even a 3rd world country yet

[tavilach]

Originally Posted by kmkkid

They're ridiculed by us Canadians (and the rest of the world) and they arnt even a 3rd world country yet

Oh boy. I should have been more clear. I wasn't referring to that type of ridiculing. I just edited my original post to avoid an onslaught of stupidity.

[simonjames]

Ambush - just to correct you

the government of my country didn't sign the Kyoto agreement - don't blame the people

politics in Australia are at their lowest level - the government is in by a majority only because there is no worthy opposition party and so the government doesn't care what it's citizens think

If it were up to the Australian people Kyoto would have been signed

[Zimphire]

If the US ever goes under, Canada will have something to worry about as well.

It's teh fact.

[kmkkid]

Originally Posted by Zimphire

If the US ever goes under, Canada will have something to worry about as well.

It's teh fact.

If the US goes under economically we'll have nothing to worry about except booking cheap trips to the US.

[DeathMan]

And nobody makes fun of Canada. Everyone has their problems. The US is definitely sliding economically, no one is arguing that. Being the believer of Capitalism that I am, I don't think China will be able to be a superpower long term until they have an open market. The U.S. and other Capitalist nations will find ways to win, because we'll have more flexibility and incentive to do so.

Look at what Brazil is doing with Gas. Sure the govt helped speed this along, but the point is: they are using their unique advantages to capitalize on the high cost of gasoline. Can the U.S. do this as effectively as Brazil? Probably not, but (ideally) we'll figure out something that will give us an advantage over slow moving systems with lots of regulation. We will continue to do this, and this will allow us to continue to be a (perhaps not the only) superpower.