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Bird Flu: How Concerned Are You? 50% Die
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Cody Dawg
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Oct 4, 2005, 09:25 PM
 
The president apparently considers it a real threat.

Apparently it is highly lethal - 50% of those infected have died.

The president is concerned enought to start thinking about how the military would enforce martial law if it becomes an epidemic in our country.

What will any of you do if it comes to your part of the world or country?
     
JoshuaZ
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Oct 4, 2005, 09:53 PM
 
I should be fine. I`m thinking I would be in the 50% that would live. As for everyone else, well, I do enjoy looting.
     
chris v
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Oct 4, 2005, 09:58 PM
 
"Hmmm. Karl.... no more Saddam to catch... Osama is lost in the mountains... the ol' 9/11 invocation is starting to lose its sparkle... how else are we gonna keep people afraid?"

(edit: The president seems awfully concerned with Authoritarianism for my taste, and I worry that this is a nice trial baloon to see how people react to the concept of martial law. The words "martial law" are not to be bandied about lightly in this country.)
( Last edited by chris v; Oct 4, 2005 at 10:33 PM. Reason: stupid apostrophe!)

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Mastrap
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Oct 4, 2005, 09:59 PM
 
Can we have Martian Law instead?
     
IceEnclosure
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Oct 4, 2005, 10:01 PM
 
'round here we call 'em birds, not bitches.

Cody, be concerned. Very.
ice
     
Rolling Bones
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Oct 4, 2005, 10:04 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cody Dawg
Apparently it is highly lethal - 50% of those infected have died.
Top half or bottom half?
     
chris v
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Oct 4, 2005, 10:08 PM
 
Originally Posted by Rolling Bones
Top half or bottom half?
The old & frail or extremely young half. It's a badass illness, for sure. So far, it hasn't travelled from human to human, only from bird to human, so it's containable for the time being. The concern is that it mutates & becomes transmissible without losing its virulence. Excellent article in the latest National Geographic, if you can handle their Librul propaganda.

When a true genius appears in the world you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him. -- Jonathan Swift.
     
sek929
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Oct 4, 2005, 10:10 PM
 
Originally Posted by Mastrap
Can we have Martian Law instead?
Is that a Sealab quote I see?

Cody, you are easily scared aren't you? Watch out for snakes too.

All of this rubbish pales in comparison to the risk you take driving everyday.
     
JoshuaZ
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Oct 4, 2005, 10:12 PM
 
I`d be more worried that when martial law was put into effect, that only `certain` people would die, and large groups of `certain` supporters would die. You know?
     
IceEnclosure
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Oct 4, 2005, 10:14 PM
 
Don't forget, she's kinda almost in South Florida too, and we have the Chupacabra!

Danger danger.
ice
     
Cody Dawg  (op)
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Oct 4, 2005, 10:16 PM
 
Who here has had the flu and had it badly?

I have.

It was terrible.

I had a wonderful friend who died of the flu while we were in high school. She was in 10th grade (I was in 9th grade) and her name was Linda. I could hardly believe that she died of the flu. It's still hard to accept now.
     
Disgruntled Head of C-3PO
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Oct 4, 2005, 10:16 PM
 
Originally Posted by chris v
"Hmmm. Karl.... no more Saddam to catch... Osama is lost in the mountains... the ol 9/11' invocation is starting to lose its sparkle... how else are we gonna keep people afraid?"
You're totally right, it is scary watching the US keep control over it's population by scaring the crap out of them.

With fear they can do whatever they want and piss away as much money as they want.
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dcmacdaddy
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Oct 4, 2005, 10:21 PM
 
Originally Posted by chris v
(edit: The president seems awfully concerned with Authoritarianism for my taste, and I worry that this is a nice trial baloon to see how people react to the concept of martial law. The words "martial law" are not to be bandied about lightly in this country.)
It's looking like that more and more, isn't it? In today's press conference he talks about using the National Guard to control the movement of individuals among states and/or regions where there was an outbreak. Just a few weeks ago it was the active duty US military, not the state National Guard units, that had to take over during the disaster cleanup in New Orleans. It's not time to break out the tin-foil hats or anything just yet but these are interesting responses to dealing with issues of national emergency.
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sek929
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Oct 4, 2005, 10:21 PM
 
I've had the flu several times. But I don't want martial law to take care of it.
     
Mastrap
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Oct 4, 2005, 10:22 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cody Dawg
Who here has had the flu and had it badly?

There's a huge difference between the flu, which can kill in exceptional circumstances, and Asian bird flu. Like, one can be passed from human to human. The other... can't.

I too had the flu, several times in my life. I didn't need a National Guardsman to tell me what to do about it.
     
Wiskedjak
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Oct 4, 2005, 10:26 PM
 
Originally Posted by dcmacdaddy
It's looking like that more and more, isn't it? In today's press conference he talks about using the National Guard to control the movement of individuals among states and/or regions where there was an outbreak. Just a few weeks ago it was the active duty US military, not the state National Guard units, that had to take over during the disaster cleanup in New Orleans. It's not time to break out the tin-foil hats or anything just yet but these are interesting responses to dealing with issues of national emergency.
Well, it's not like he can run for re-election ...
     
hayesk
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Oct 4, 2005, 10:27 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cody Dawg
The president apparently considers it a real threat.

Apparently it is highly lethal - 50% of those infected have died.

The president is concerned enought to start thinking about how the military would enforce martial law if it becomes an epidemic in our country.

What will any of you do if it comes to your part of the world or country?
I'm more concerned about Bush exploiting this rather than the real threat. I also question the 50% figure. How many have had bird flu? How do we know lots of people had it and got better that just thought they had the regular flu?
     
SVass
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Oct 4, 2005, 10:29 PM
 
There is another election coming up next year and our great medical expert now wants new laws. Actually, our current laws allow quarantines, only shrub doesn't know it. I seem to remember all airplanes being grounded for several days starting on 9/11.

How can you stop everybody from evacuating cities like Houston when brave Texans panic? (The EAST side of hurricanes gets a storm surge, not the west side.) sam
     
quote68
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Oct 4, 2005, 10:30 PM
 
Gee, maybe if we all drove suburbans we'd be protected. I hate stupid people.
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rjenkinson
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Oct 4, 2005, 10:32 PM
 
Originally Posted by sek929
I've had the flu several times. But I don't want martial law to take care of it.
the issue isn't one or two people getting the flu. the key word in the article was pandemic.

Originally Posted by WASHINGTON (CNN)
President Bush said Tuesday that the possibility of an avian flu pandemic is among the reasons he wants Congress to give him the power to use the nation's military in law enforcement roles in the United States.
-r.
     
sek929
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Oct 4, 2005, 10:33 PM
 
The number of total deaths due to bird flu are less than the amount of vehicle deaths in the past month.

I don't have a source but I'm fairly sure that number is accurate.

Wear repellant, if you get sick take care of yourself.

If its that big of a deal stay inside and watch TV all night, it will make the outdoors more enjoyable for me.
     
chris v
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Oct 4, 2005, 10:35 PM
 
that the possibility of an avian flu pandemic is among the reasons
AMONG? Reasons is plural? Can we see the whole list please?

When a true genius appears in the world you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him. -- Jonathan Swift.
     
JoshuaZ
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Oct 4, 2005, 10:36 PM
 
Reason: Random snacks food trying to choke the President.

It happened once before, it could happen again.
     
sek929
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Oct 4, 2005, 10:40 PM
 
nothing to see here, DP
     
sek929
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Oct 4, 2005, 10:40 PM
 
Originally Posted by rjenkinson
the issue isn't one or two people getting the flu. the key word in the article was pandemic.


-r.
Then I'd say there is an epidemic of people dying in car crashes. Bring in the Apache gunships!
     
FulcrumPilot
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Oct 4, 2005, 10:42 PM
 
Only retired pilots should be afraid of this type of flu.

Oh! Here are facts:

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2004_01_15/en/

"Migratory waterfowl – most notably wild ducks – are the natural reservoir of avian influenza viruses, and these birds are also the most resistant to infection. Domestic poultry, including chickens and turkeys, are particularly susceptible to epidemics of rapidly fatal influenza."

"at least four months would be needed to produce a new vaccine, in significant quantities, capable of conferring protection against a new virus subtype."
( Last edited by FulcrumPilot; Oct 4, 2005 at 10:59 PM. )
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OldManMac
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Oct 4, 2005, 11:11 PM
 
Originally Posted by chris v
"Hmmm. Karl.... no more Saddam to catch... Osama is lost in the mountains... the ol' 9/11 invocation is starting to lose its sparkle... how else are we gonna keep people afraid?"

(edit: The president seems awfully concerned with Authoritarianism for my taste, and I worry that this is a nice trial baloon to see how people react to the concept of martial law. The words "martial law" are not to be bandied about lightly in this country.)
Ding, Ding, we have a winner, folks! Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to check my closets and under my bed for terrorists.
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sek929
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Oct 4, 2005, 11:15 PM
 
Originally Posted by KarlG
Ding, Ding, we have a winner, folks! Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to check my closets and under my bed for terrorists.
Don't forget to put 7 deadbolts on your front door, also, keep an eye on your neighbors...they may be mixing WMDs in their bathtub.
     
Doofy
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Oct 4, 2005, 11:18 PM
 
Not worried at all.

1) The epidemic appears to be travelling along human transportation routes - i.e. it's not being flown around but is going where the farmers are transporting their chickens.

2) The only people getting it at the moment are those in very close contact with the birds. For example, last week a guy died from bird flu after drinking a duck's blood because it's some kind of delicacy over there.

3) I'm able to go entirely self-sufficient at the drop of a hat.

4) I'm as hard as nails. Bird flu is actually scared of me.
Been inclined to wander... off the beaten track.
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cheery7upper
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Oct 4, 2005, 11:38 PM
 
does it travel in all types of birds?
     
Cubeoid
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Oct 5, 2005, 12:17 AM
 
Originally Posted by cheery7upper
does it travel in all types of birds?
Yes.
     
brapper
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Oct 5, 2005, 02:16 AM
 
I'm blissfully ignorant.
     
meelk
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Oct 5, 2005, 02:45 AM
 
Originally Posted by sek929
The number of total deaths due to bird flu are less than the amount of vehicle deaths in the past month.

I don't have a source but I'm fairly sure that number is accurate.

Wear repellant, if you get sick take care of yourself.

If its that big of a deal stay inside and watch TV all night, it will make the outdoors more enjoyable for me.

You have no antibodies against bird flu. In 1918, the last time bird flu jumped to man, it killed 25 million people. With global travel, unchecked bird flu could kill up to 300 million. This is a very real threat. I love the "I've had the flu" responses here. Answer: SO WHAT? What is hard to comprehend about a 50% mortality rate? Are you really that dense?
In China, people who have come down with bird flu have "disappeared", read: executed by the goverment. Its a very real threat.
     
Rolling Bones
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Oct 5, 2005, 02:48 AM
 
Feel for the birds!!!

People can be replaced.
     
Warung
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Oct 5, 2005, 02:56 AM
 
I'm far more concerned about "martial law" than avian flu.

Have you been touched by his noodly appendage?
     
Cubeoid
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Oct 5, 2005, 03:24 AM
 
A bird is just a poor excuse for a human.
     
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Oct 5, 2005, 03:47 AM
 
Meelk is correct. Influenza is capable of being an extremely deadly disease.

The 1918 flu pandemic had a 5% mortality rate, spread throughout the world rapidly, and killed at least around 25 million people in six months. Which is more than everyone that died in WW1, which had just ended. Half a million died in the US. And it didn't just kill the very young or very old; it killed lots of otherwise healthy people in their 20's and 30's. The quarantines set up at the time were basically ineffective, but they, and fear of the flu, pretty much shut down a lot of business and infrastructure for a while. And they never actually cured it; it just went away after about a year and a half. Later flu pandemics killed about a hundred thousand people in the US in the 50's and 60's.

If the H5N1 strain in Asia changes to become highly infectious to humans we'll be pretty ****ed. And even if it doesn't, sooner or later there'll be a repeat of 1918. While I agree that most of the so-called security measures taken by the government are ineffective and dangerous, and that martial law is hardly necessary (it wasn't in the past either) it is really important to prepare as best we can for the inevitable.

Meanwhile, people who dismiss the flu as not being dangerous are just idiots.
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sminch
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Oct 5, 2005, 04:25 AM
 
bloody hell - it took how many posts until someone posted something about the 1918 pandemic? i was wondering if i was going to have to do it...

personally, i'm sh!t scared of bird flu being able to be transmitted person to person, and from what i've read that could well happen within the next year or two. when it does, 50% chance of dying sounds pretty bloody grim, even if that's likely to be the weakest 50% of the population.

this thing could well be the biggest killer ever. if you're not taking this seriously you're either mad or blissfully ignorant.

to answer cody's question, if it comes here i expect there's a decent chance i'll either die or be burying my wife. groovy.

sminch
     
UNTeMac
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Oct 5, 2005, 04:42 AM
 
Am I being naive if I think modern medicine will have somewhat of a leg-up on something like this? Worrying about a 1918 scenario seems a little alarmist given the advances we've made. It won't be good but I'm far less worried than some of you. Here's my question: Can I do anything about it now? Then why let it take up my time?

To make the point a 3rd time, people afraid of a common thing are easier to control.
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IceEnclosure
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Oct 5, 2005, 05:00 AM
 
In 1918 wasn't there a more intimate living situation between birds/chickens and people?

Can I get it through cooked poultry?

If I stay in my house and beat down with a bat anyone that comes near my home for a few months, will I be okay?

and during that time, if I go out and get some water and food for a short while, will I be okay? (assuming a bird doesn't fall out of the sky and into my mouth)

If there's, say, one case in Fort Lauderdale, should I get my mom/grandma and such the hell outta dodge? send 'em to stay with family somewhere else?

wtf with this crap man.

screw this, I want a hurricane
ice
     
Doofy
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Oct 5, 2005, 08:00 AM
 
Originally Posted by cpt kangarooski
Meanwhile, people who dismiss the flu as not being dangerous are just idiots.
...Or aware of the fact that there's nothing that can be done about it.

(well, short of completely stopping movement of people to and from Asia - which I don't think would wash)
Been inclined to wander... off the beaten track.
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Cody Dawg  (op)
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Oct 5, 2005, 08:05 AM
 
If the flu comes - and it's only a matter of time, folks - then we'll all need some doses of Tamiflu.

I'm thinking of getting some NOW.

Seriously.

I'm going to call my doctor and ask him to write a prescription for Tamiflu before I can't get it for some reason.

I'm going to get it for myself and every person in my family and store it.

It's the only drug that has offset this strain of flu and unlike the smallpox vaccine, it's available right now - for storage.

I'd suggest that we all get some.

Now I have a vision of Spielberg or Stephen King doing a remake of The Birds with a twist: The birds give us all the flu and we all die.

     
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Oct 5, 2005, 08:29 AM
 
I would be terrified if 51% die...that's over half. I can live with 50%.

     
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Oct 5, 2005, 08:54 AM
 
Originally Posted by sminch
personally, i'm sh!t scared of bird flu being able to be transmitted person to person, and from what i've read that could well happen within the next year or two. when it does, 50% chance of dying sounds pretty bloody grim, even if that's likely to be the weakest 50% of the population.
Same here, scared as hell. But I read that it takes 4 months to develop a vaccine, no ? And, haven't we known H5N1 for more than 4 months ?

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chris v
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Oct 5, 2005, 09:08 AM
 
If it mutated enough to become human-to-human transmissible, a vaccine that we created now might no longer work.

Looks like the trial baloon is taking pot-shots from the left and the right:

http://www.cnn.com/2005/POLITICS/10/...eax/index.html

Of course, that article comes from CNN, a well-known librul basion of mis-information, so take it with a pound of salt, as usual.

When a true genius appears in the world you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him. -- Jonathan Swift.
     
andi*pandi
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Oct 5, 2005, 10:20 AM
 
rest assured, medical minds are working on the avian flu. And no, regular flu cures will not work. Neither will freaking out. Here's some info on how to best deal with regular flu--surprise, it mainly involves washing your hands: http://www.massmed.org/flu

I am very concerned about this martial law crap though.

rather than freak out without info, read here. Stay tuned to NEJM.
NEJM link 1

NEJM link 2
     
SVass
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Oct 5, 2005, 11:01 AM
 
All of you running around like chickens with your heads ... won't help at all. The spread of the 1918 flu was helped by having large army encampments with many people staying together. Remember polio quarantines! Schools and movie theaters are closed. Airlines and trains will have to stop carrying people. People who are sick will have to stay home and not go to work. The last item would actually be useful. The new recession like the last one will be blamed on events outside of the administration's control as usual.

Using the army would help spread the flu as it did in 1918.

Tamiflu will be as useful as placing Michael Brown in charge of our response effort.
     
wdlove
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Oct 5, 2005, 11:20 AM
 
Hi Cody,

Thank you for bring up this very important subject.

I have received the flu vaccinations since that started in the 70's. Don't believe that I have had the flu. Have had bad colds and other types of viruses.

The most important is to wash hands frequently. Drink plenty of fluids. Eight hours of sleep at night.

Pray

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sek929
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Oct 5, 2005, 12:36 PM
 
The Bubonic plague was pretty bad too I hear, I might as well freak out then

Calling people who don't get their panties in a twist about things out of their control stupid is so freaking lame I can barely stand it.

Once again. In the past 2 years I PERSONALLY knew 6 people who died in motor-vehicle accidents. Some stupid epidemic scare scares me about as much as rush hour on route 93.
     
El Gato
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Oct 5, 2005, 12:58 PM
 
Originally Posted by CNN Article
Absent an effective vaccine, public health officials likely would try to stem the disease's spread by isolating people who had been exposed to it. Such a move could require the military, he said.

"I think the president ought to have all options on the table," Bush said, then corrected himself, "all assets on the table -- to be able to deal with something this significant."
I think this is pretty clear.... Bush wants to bomb quarantine zones. RUN!


     
 
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